过亿

The path is different for others. There is no need to be moved by the wind.

Trading is a career, not a lottery ticket
Those who only look at one or two wins and losses will always lose money;
Only those who look at the long-term stability of 100 trades can survive.

📘 Trader's Diary Reminder:
Record your mindset, market environment, and plans before the market opens every day; focus on executing discipline and whether take-profit and stop-loss levels are met during the session; review the reasons for profit and loss after the market closes, analyze emotional fluctuations and decision-making logic. Remain objective and calm, without letting temporary wins or losses shake your strategy. Persist in recording, reflecting, and optimizing, accumulating over time to develop a stable trading rhythm and mindset; this is an essential path to becoming a mature trader.

Let's look at the historical cycle increases:

Round Starting Price Top Price Increase Multiple
2013 $2 → $1,163 ≈580x
2017 $152 → $19,891 ≈130x
2021 $3,122 → $69,000 ≈22x
2025 (current) $15,479 → ? Approximately 8x (up to 128k)

📊 It can be seen that:
The increase is in geometric decay (580→130→22→8x).
According to this decreasing pattern:

Theoretical multiple for the top of the fifth round ≈ 22 ÷ 2.5 ≈ 8–9x
$15,479 × 8.5 ≈ 131,000 dollars

This perfectly matches the current top area of 128k.
➡️ In other words: 128k may be the natural limit for this round.
$150,000 statistically belongs to the "super-extension market", which requires an "additional liquidity shock" to occur.

💰 Three, from the perspective of funding (realistic conditions)

To see 150,000, two conditions must be met:
1️⃣ Continuous net inflow into ETFs (at least maintain >2B/month)
2️⃣ The Federal Reserve starts a rate-cutting cycle, and U.S. dollar liquidity significantly warms up

But currently:
• U.S. CPI is still above the target range;
• U.S. treasury yields remain high;
• ETF funds have significantly slowed down or even faced net outflows in recent weeks

🔍 Four, from the perspective of fractal structure (trend patterns)

Current daily structure:
• First departure segment: 94k → 118k
• Pullback: 104k
• Second departure segment: 104k → 128k (completed)

According to the fractal limit formula for departure segments:

Upper limit of the center 118k + center width 14k × 1.618 ≈ 140,600
This means:
The theoretically strongest departure segment limit target ≈ 140,000 dollars

But the actual market often dulls ahead of time—
Most cycles end at the "1.382–1.5x extension" point, which is the range of 127k–135k.
➡️ So even if it exceeds expectations, the 130k–140k range remains the limit zone, and 150k is the overheat fantasy zone.

🔮 Five, conclusion (rational perspective)

Target Price Probability Logic
128k ✅ High probability Multiple resonance structure top (current)
135k–140k ⚠️ Medium probability Limit extension segment (when funding is sufficient)
150k ❌ Low probability Requires macro easing + strong ETF attack double resonance

🧘‍♂️ Final statement:

128k~135k is the rational zone;
140k~150k is the emotional zone;
Above 150k is the bubble zone.