好运连连q

I am so happy! My courses at New York University for this semester have all ended! The thesis/graduation project presentations are also completed!
This group of students is extraordinarily talented; they come from all over the world, have rich experiences, and many have already found jobs, about to work in some amazing places! Ending 2025 in such a wonderful way is just fantastic! Thanks to the excellent partners from companies like Kroll, GV (Google Ventures), GrayStak Media, FTI Consulting, etc.

The area of American family homes is shrinking.
The median size of newly built single-family homes peaked at 2,500 square feet (about 230 square meters) in 2015 and has been steadily declining, as shown in the figure below.
This proves that the American people are also starting to live in smaller houses [允悲]

I really want to see the famous painting "Jiangnan Spring" by the great painter Qiu Ying. The National Museum should collect and exhibit it, a treasure of Chinese culture with a history of 500 years [praying]

The dark horse of the presidential election has appeared: Rick from BlackRock [smiling silently]

The data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than Wall Street's previous forecast of 3.1%.
Core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also lower than the previous expectation of 3%.
Fundstrat's research director Tom Lee stated: "The moderate CPI increase will further indicate that the Federal Reserve's focus is on protecting the job market. This means the Federal Reserve currently holds a cautious attitude towards the economy."

Interesting News: JPMorgan Chase's 'Dance of the Wind'
JPMorgan Chase's new headquarters at 270 Park Avenue features a unique indoor American flag, suspended from a bronze flagpole designed by Norman Foster. This flag is equipped with a wind mechanism that simulates outdoor wind; even without natural breeze, the flag continues to flutter, creating a 'surreal' effect.
The installation, named 'Dance of the Wind', is the central decoration of the company's lobby, symbolizing the close connection between the company and the city of New York along with its climate, while also signifying the company's direction of development.
Great design.
Exceptional taste.
Merry Christmas
Special thanks: My partner arranged this exclusive interview.

Which of the four major states in the United States will experience explosive growth next year?
Location is about power, not geography.
Happy Tuesday, friends in the community!
I just returned from San Francisco, where a dinner conversation sparked a discussion about investments, focusing on which state will see explosive growth in 2026.
Several states were mentioned—Florida, New York, California. But I firmly support Texas, and here are the reasons you should pay attention to.
The foundation has already been laid.
Data reveals a fact that most people overlook:
GDP growth rate ranks second in the nation.
Number of Fortune 1000 headquarters ranks second in the nation.
Median home prices among major states (New York, California, Florida, Texas) are the lowest.
But this is just the basic condition. What is happening beneath the surface is far more interesting.
AI infrastructure construction that everyone overlooks.
While everyone is focused on the application layer and chip manufacturers, a crucial bottleneck is forming: data center capacity. Training and running large language models require a massive amount of power—most states simply cannot provide this power on a large scale.
Texas can.
The state has built a unique energy mix that other regions cannot match: oil, solar, natural gas, and nuclear power, along with ample cheap land and crucial deregulation policies that allow for quick deployment. While California is still discussing approval processes and the Northeast is patching up aging power grids, Texas is building the infrastructure to power AI innovations for the next decade.
The secondary effects that no one talks about.
Here comes the interesting part: building data centers and energy infrastructure requires a huge workforce. We are talking about thousands of construction jobs, operational positions, and support services, all of which pay far above average wages.
This creates a virtuous cycle: high-paying jobs → disposable income → economic growth → more companies relocating → more job opportunities. Texas is not only benefiting from the AI boom; it is creating a lasting economic expansion that will continue to grow over time.
What this means for you.
Whether you are in corporate sales, consumer goods, or financial services, Texas's customer base is rapidly expanding, and not just in terms of quantity, but also in quality. The influx of high-paying tech and energy workers is fundamentally changing the economic landscape of the state. If Texas is not already part of your development plans for 2026, it should be added now. The question is not whether your competitors will be there, but whether you can get there first.

The ruling of the United States Supreme Court, 9:0

The purchasing power of the American people is indeed strong. The ticket prices for the World Cup have been released, and they are many times more expensive than the last World Cup in Qatar, and they sold out immediately [cute]

Welcome Tristan Harris, who was a design ethicist at Google and the main writer of the Netflix documentary "The Social Dilemma." He is also a co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology, which provides advice to policymakers, tech leaders, and the public on the risks of artificial intelligence and algorithmic manipulation!

Jobs often said that Silicon Valley is too wealthy, so they don't allow the construction of signal towers, resulting in poor signal.
People often say that mobile phone signals in the United States are bad. Let me explain: the hallmark of top communities in the U.S. is poor mobile phone signals. This is because wealthy people have large houses and occupy large areas, preferring open views around them. Mobile signal towers are considered an eyesore. For example, the mobile signal in Palo Alto, the center of the universe Silicon Valley, is very poor [允悲]
$BNB $BTC $ETH

Last week, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins visited the New York Stock Exchange to share his vision for revitalizing the American market as the country approaches its 250th anniversary. His speech once again emphasized the importance of maintaining the global leadership of the U.S. public markets.
During the visit, Chairman Atkins met with NYSE market maker trading department head Peter Jach to personally understand how brokers support the world's most innovative companies going public. We sincerely appreciate Chairman Atkins' visit and his commitment to strengthening the integrity and competitiveness of the U.S. market.
$BNB $BTC $ETH

Texas will also start giving money to newborn children to open stock accounts[good]

$BNB $BTC $ETH

Expectations of the bank regarding the Federal Reserve's decision
Morgan Stanley
Now expects rate cuts in December, January, and April to reach 3.0-3.25%.
· The statement indicates that risk management reductions have been completed.
· Several divergences are expected.
· No significant changes in dots.
J.P. Morgan
Also expects "hawkish cuts".
· The statement hints at future reductions being lessened.
· Dot plot: 3.4% (2026), 3.1% (2027), potentially higher in the long run.
· Future: Final layoffs to occur in January next year.
Bank of America
Expects to lower rates by 25 basis points and take balance sheet actions.
· The statement raises the threshold for further cuts.
· About three splits are expected.
· Next cuts: June and July.
Deutsche Bank
Indicates that stronger growth combined with sticky inflation means a cautious stance on more cuts.
· The statement will take a tougher position.
· Dots align with 3.4% (2026) and 3.1% (2028).
· Next clipping time: September.
UBS Group
Sees a vast majority supporting a 25 basis point rate cut.
· Reports may shift to balance risks, but not the benchmark.
· About 2+ dissenting opinions expected, mainly from Musalem and Schmidt.
· Inflation forecast slightly lower; dots similar to September.
Powell may emphasize data dependence and a closer to neutral stance.
Commercial Banks
Expect to lower rates by 25 basis points, but many differences may arise.
Powell may combine cuts with hawkish messaging.
· Only one cut remains before the end of his term; starting in June, under the new chairman, more easing policies will be implemented.
Goldman Sachs
Supports cutting rates due to a weak labor market.
· The statement may emphasize a higher threshold for future cuts.
· Forecast revision: higher GDP, slightly lower inflation.
CITI
Expects to implement tough cuts.
· Dots largely unchanged.
Powell does not rule out the possibility of cuts in January or March but will avoid dovish tones.
Wells Freight
Expects the Federal Reserve to continue moving towards a more neutral stance.
· Dot plot: 3.4% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027-28, and 3.0% in the long term.
· The statement may see 3-4 dissenting opinions; softer guidance.
· Outlook: 25 basis point cuts in the first and second quarters.
$BNB $BTC $ETH

I am honored to receive an invitation to a dinner gathering at the home of a Wall Street master. I studied his trading memoirs twenty years ago and never expected to have the fortune to attend a family banquet. Upon receiving the address, I found out that his home has a standalone house in Manhattan with a yard... I plan to ask about the macro economy next year, the new mayor of New York, etc. [smiling without speaking]

$BNB $BTC $ETH

In Texas these days, I visited the Starbase and saw a large number of data centers, power plants, and new airports under construction. The return of the manufacturing industry in the United States is incredibly strong.
There is a huge rocket manufacturing base at the Starbase, and it takes a long time to drive around. Next to it is a seaport, with two rocket recovery towers, and in the future, trips to Mars will start from here. It is entirely driven by the private economy, and the land prices here have increased about 30 times in the past ten years, the space economy is impressive.
At the base, there are Cybertrucks as far as the eye can see, and many places in the parking lot have signs saying only Cybertrucks can park [laughing without speaking].
On the way to Starbase, you can see a huge sculpture of Musk, and RWA that caricatures his image, Dogecoin, and large Ad Astra slogans (Latin for 'to space') on several major murals [sad but true].
Although everything is free to visit without any checks, just a few hundred meters away is the border between the United States and Mexico, where border patrol officers can occasionally be seen [cute].
$BNB $BTC $ETH

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission holds regular meetings of the Investor Advisory Committee. Following the Sunshine Act notice, the agenda includes a draft proposal on disclosing the impact of artificial intelligence on operations; a hearing on asset tokenization; and the goals for continuing reform and innovation next year[good]

Earned government bonds in 2020 and this year [smiling without speaking]

The Wall Street experts' in-depth analysis of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for next year:
The market continues to feel reassured by the idea that any rate cuts that the Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, is reluctant to make could be forcefully pushed by presumed Fed chair nominee Kevin Hassett. However, for various reasons, this situation is not entirely clear. The level of disagreement among members at the Fed's December meeting (when some dissent may arise) occurs at a level of policy interest rates that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members consider to be restrictive (although they may differ on the extent of restriction). With each rate cut, we get closer to the neutral interest rate level that the majority of members expect... In fact, after this month's rate cut, we will be close enough to the neutral rate that the threshold for further adjustments will naturally rise. Therefore, the question is whether there is enough support to bring the policy rate down to stimulating levels? Based on current evidence, it is difficult to support this view unless the labor market worsens significantly—because current potential inflation is close to 3%, the economic growth outlook is strong, and financial conditions are loose. Moreover, if the labor market improves next year... Considering the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures currently in place, this scenario is not unreasonable... And if inflation remains sticky as expected due to the ongoing pass-through of tariffs (and limited labor supply)... I find it hard to imagine how the new Fed chair could garner enough support for further rate cuts if macroeconomic data does not support it. From the composition of the committee, let's assume in the most dovish scenario that Cook, Powell, and Barr leave the board, replaced by Hassett and two other dovish members. The remaining permanent voting members are Williams, Jefferson, Bowman, Waller, and Milan. Assuming Hassett, Milan, and the two new Trump appointees vote for a rate cut, regardless of economic data, they still lack two votes. Bowman and Waller are trusted central bank officials who are unlikely to support dovish policies without sufficient reason. If Cook and Barr remain on the board, then the new Fed chair's ability to push for dovish policies will be further limited. The rotation mechanism for regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents means that Harmack and Logan will rotate in as voting members next year, and they are among the committee's most hawkish members. They may oppose inappropriate dovish policies, as will Jefferson and Barr. In summary, this means that Bowman, Waller, Williams, Jefferson, Barr, Logan, and Harmack will all be committed to ensuring that the Fed's policies align with a reasonable interpretation of economic data. These seven members constitute 7 out of the 12 voting committee members... Therefore, regardless of the chair's views, if the data does not support a rate cut, it will not happen. The next focus is that Hassett himself is a highly reputable and experienced economist. However, he is politically aligned with President Trump, so the market naturally assumes he will implement the loose monetary policy that the government has long advocated. The issue here is not credibility, but whether the central bank can maintain political independence. In any case, the new Fed chair needs to build consensus to effectively implement loose policies. Even if we assume that the policy rate will drop to neutral levels next year... Any actions beyond that will depend on the current economic data (as mentioned), as well as the level of neutral interest rates. If the actual neutral rate is 1%, and inflation reaches the target level, then a reasonable estimate of the neutral rate is 3%. However, potential inflation is currently running between 2.75% and 3.0%, which suggests that the policy rate may already be close to or even below the nominal neutral rate (3.75%). Even if we assume the actual neutral rate drops to 0%... and keep potential inflation at 2.75%... even an effective dovish Fed chair has relatively limited room for rate cuts without risking a resurgence of inflation, especially with the terminal rate expectations remaining in a narrow range of 3-3.25% in recent months. As I mentioned last week, this is not to deny the possibility of rate cuts in the face of weak macroeconomic prospects, but rather to emphasize that in the context of economic growth, labor market improvements, and high inflation, it is not easy for the new Fed chair to simply adopt a dovish stance.

Polls show that half of Canadians want to move to the United States, while the other half are too poor to afford the move.
Ottawa—A new national poll reveals a startling divide: 50% of Canadians want to relocate to the U.S., while another 50% admit they would like to go but can't even afford the gas to make the journey.
Experts say this result reflects the "Trudeau-Carney legacy economy," a unique Canadian model: two consecutive Liberal prime ministers have managed to make housing prices in Canada soar faster than Housing Minister Sean Fraser can create new synonyms for "crisis."
The report states, "Trudeau spent eight years making everyone poor. Carney just completed the job with banker-level efficiency."
Respondents cited the freedoms, low taxes, and the astonishing experience of being able to buy groceries without loans as their main reasons for wanting to escape Canada. Meanwhile, those too poor to leave expressed that they "just hope the government doesn't announce any more plans to improve life," as historical experience shows these plans only make things worse.
A Liberal spokesperson dismissed the poll, claiming that Canadians are "confused," and stated that a massive financial collapse is actually a sign of "inclusive economic vitality."
Reports indicate that Carney is busy crafting a new "prosperity action plan," which insiders describe as "print more money and then pray for rain."