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#山寨币市场回暖

本轮牛市的派发时间可以暂时理解为2024年12月-2025年10月份，历经300天左右，现在是正在发生的事情，这里我们没有上帝视角，只能假设；

具体过程是2024年12月份第一次触碰10万，高位盘整了2个多月，然后出现特朗普自导自演的中美贸易战的消息面，把大饼跌回了7万5，后面贸易战缓和，大饼又一路反弹到前高附近并且突破前高来到12万6，整个拉升的过程也是耗时3个月，但不同的是第二次在高位盘整了3个月，最终在10月份开启走趋势下跌，整个过程历经11个月；

目前来看上波牛市在5万5上方顶部派发的周期和这轮牛市在10万上方派发的周期是极其相似的，刻舟求剑主力短时间内的行为可能偏颇会比较大，但就大周期来说，主力操盘的行为是有迹可循的；#迷因币ETF

今日行情分析

现在行情这走势，我还是把它当反弹，而不是反转。反弹结构很清楚：已经走到第三段了。第一段是从 116400跌下去后直接拉到 93000，再回踩蓄力；现在这个是更大级别的，从 126200回落之后的反弹。

接下来$BTC 最关键就是 98000。

这个点位刚好跟 4 小时下跌段的 0.382 重叠，反弹能不能继续升级、甚至变成反转，基本就看能不能把这个点位打穿。

$ETH 这边我昨天就说了，3060一旦站上去，就是直奔3230。结果也确实没让人失望，以太就是这种性格：比大饼更猛、更有弹性。第一目标到了，接下来上面的压力就看 3660。

我自己的操作，ETH多单在3200附近平仓了一半，剩下的继续持有，接下来如果BTC反弹到98000，ETH反弹到3600，我会考虑分批做空。

我做合约比较适合中线单，不是那种一天做几单的风格，很多人做BTC盯着15分钟K线几百刀的波动赌多空，这种人在这个市场就是来送钱的。#ETH走势分析

Today I saw the CEO of BlackRock say that the cryptocurrency industry is similar to the internet in 1996, which means we are in the first year of an explosive reform in the industry. From a pile of technology, we will move towards the final mile of commercial services for the public. Although the current market is difficult, do not leave this industry; this is always the easiest place for ordinary people to change their destiny.

The Binance Alpha project FIR has made a strong entry into the AI music track, becoming the first "cash flow killer" in this field. Its hard power is supported by data: the platform has frequently produced hit songs, and Kay Tse's new song "City Light Dreaming" successfully ranked in the Top 2 of Tencent Music Charts, with a cumulative play count exceeding 100 million, and copyright revenue is quite considerable.

Even more noteworthy is the series of core benefits that are following closely: FIR is expected to exceed 30 million USD in music copyright revenue by 2026, and will officially open the "copyright pledge pool" at the end of December, at which time 50% of the income will be shared with users participating in FIR liquidity provision in the form of USDT.

Currently, FIR's market value is only about 6 million USD, with a clear and predictable growth in copyright revenue on one side and a very light market value and just started upward momentum on the other, its value potential is visible to the naked eye. Under the strong expectation of copyright revenue sharing, market consensus is expected to form quickly, and the future development potential of FIR should not be underestimated.

Today's turnover rate is not considered very high. Investors' reactions to rising prices are not particularly strong. The main participants in the turnover are still short-term bottom-fishing investors, especially those who bought below $90,000, as they are the most likely to exit. Other investors' reactions are relatively normal.

As mentioned earlier, investors' sentiment regarding price increases is still quite good, with no signs of 'last-minute rebound to escape' appearing. Most investors are not very sensitive to price changes, and the overall chip structure remains stable. However, it should be noted that today's increase is more driven by sentiment, and liquidity has not been fully resolved. btc

$AAVE has created an APP, which is now live on major app stores.

The deposit interest rate inside this is 4% to 5%, while the current USDT financial products on exchanges only offer 2%, and bank large-denomination certificates of deposit only offer 2% as well. Products like Yu'ebao and Qianlong only provide 1.7%. Based on this calculation, excess funds during the bear market can be deposited into AAVE, and it seems unlikely that it will run away for now.

Yesterday a friend asked me, what is a bear market like?

Me: It's like this, at the beginning of December, it seemed there was still hope for the market to recover this month, and when you stop asking this question, it will be time for the bull-bear switch.

Last night, when Ethereum fell to around 2700, leveraged spot players began to concentrate their buying. Considering the previous buying situation, the range of 2700-2600 can temporarily be seen as a buying zone for this round of Ethereum fluctuations;

Last night, there were leveraged spot players buying Bitcoin around 86, but after it subsequently fell below 85, some players stopped their losses and left the market. The remaining players gradually exited at cost or with small profits during the subsequent rebound;

At present, it appears that the main players in the spot market have started to lean towards Ethereum, and for a period of time, Ethereum may be more resistant to declines than Bitcoin; #加密市场回调

Today, Bitcoin plummeted from 92k to 83.8k, evaporating 140 billion USD in 24 hours, with leveraged liquidations nearing 1 billion dollars, and the entire network is wailing.

At the same time, spot gold steadily stood above 2650 USD, and it is still rising slightly.

Why?

Bitcoin essentially remains a 'leveraged version of Nasdaq', while gold is the real safe haven.

The specific killers of the market:
1. Japanese government bond yields surged to 1.877% (a 16-year high) → Yen skyrocketed → The largest scale of Yen arbitrage trading in 30 years (conservatively 34 trillion dollars) collectively collapsed → Risk assets were forcibly sold off.
2. After Thanksgiving, liquidity was extremely thin + algorithmic stop-loss triggered a cascade, the correlation between Bitcoin and US tech stocks soared to 46%, and they were both crushed by the Yen meat grinder.
3. Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 3.45 billion dollars in November, MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted by 11%, rumors of Tether's instability, and China reiterated its crypto ban over the weekend, all adding fuel to the fire.

So why didn’t gold drop but instead increased?

Because central banks have already bought over 1000 tons in 2025 (led by China, India, and Russia), it is a hard asset to hedge against geopolitical tensions + the collapse of USD credibility, and does not need to rely on Yen leverage, nor does it face ETF redemption pressure.

When risk aversion kicks in, everyone rushes to hold gold instead of Bitcoin.

The script for 2025 has already been written:

Bitcoin continues to ride the roller coaster, while gold continues to reach new historical highs.

Which side are you on? The market has already made the choice for you.

In this wave of decline, BTC may drop to 83,800 and then rebound again to around 93,000, with the daily trading volume still relatively large.

However, if it rebounds to 93,000 and fails to break through, then the subsequent situation could be very dangerous, potentially heading straight for around 70,000.

But, if BTC rebounds later and breaks above 93,500, it may rebound to 98,000.

The market is relatively complex, not as straightforward as imagined, requiring adaptation.

Brother Sun's WeChat was stolen

The scammer asked everyone to transfer money to his address

Did anyone really transfer this money?

$Binance Life

The biggest feature of this round of rebound is 'stability'! The first three times were sharp drops followed by continued declines; this time, it takes two steps forward and one step back, slowly climbing. The starting market capitalization is lower, just over 100 million. The main goal is clear: first, raise the market capitalization, and only after listing on Binance spot will there be greater room for upward movement.