命里何时终须有

Famous tech media Axios asked: When you use Gemini 3, is there ever a time when you feel that the content it produces is beyond your understanding?
Hassabis (Demis Hassabis, founder and CEO of DeepMind): The technological advancements in the field of AI are happening too fast today, and developers often experience only a fraction (1/10) of the model's full capabilities before the next generation model is released. Developers are solely focused on competing with their rivals.
As for product usage, as a research institution, although they build models, once a model is released to billions of users, the user community can uncover extremely diverse and even very cool applications and emergent abilities that the developers themselves had never imagined.
Moreover, regarding the "AI bubble theory," Hassabis' conclusion is:
"AI is overestimated in the short term and severely underestimated in the long term."
"There is a lot of talk about an artificial intelligence bubble right now. In my view, I think it is not a single, black-and-white issue. I believe that some parts of the artificial intelligence ecosystem are indeed in a bubble. One example is the seed funding for startups that are basically just getting started, which are valued at hundreds of billions of dollars right off the bat. It will be interesting to see how this situation can be sustained. My guess is that it probably won’t, at least not in a general sense. So, this is one area. Then, what people are concerned about is the valuations of large tech companies and other issues. I believe that there is a lot of real business supporting that. But this remains to be seen. I think for any incredible, transformative, and far-reaching new technology, AI technology is undoubtedly the most profound."

A set of data about the dramatic changes in residential deposits in our country over the last six years:
"In the last six years, the increase in household deposits in China was about 80 trillion yuan, while the balance of household deposits in 2018 was only 71.6 trillion yuan. In other words, in the past six years, Chinese residents have saved more money than in the previous 100 years before 2018, and it may even be equivalent to the total amount saved by Chinese people over more than 2000 years since the Han Dynasty. Currently, the per capita deposit in China is about 110,000 yuan.">
This set of data has been verified by Gemini and is basically true.
Due to increased uncertainty in future income expectations, household consumption has become conservative, leading to a large-scale defensive savings. In just the years 2022 and 2023, household deposits increased by 17.84 trillion and 16.67 trillion respectively, which is unprecedented in history.
This is a very astonishing economic phenomenon. This data objectively reflects that the allocation of wealth among Chinese residents is undergoing a historic shift—from real estate and aggressive investments to bank deposits as a safe haven.
However, it must be emphasized that an increase in deposits does not equate to an increase in wealth. The growth of 80 trillion yuan in household deposits is largely not due to a surge in income, but rather because people are reluctant to spend (downgrading consumption) and hesitant to invest. This reflects, to some extent, insufficient demand in economics.

The WeChat public account "Future City Vision" states: Due to the Earth's rotation, silt from the mouths of major rivers tends to flow westward. Therefore, the Yangtze River Delta and the western bank of the Pearl River Delta are more susceptible to siltation.

Hong Kong and Shenzhen, located on the eastern side of the Pearl River Estuary, possess naturally high-quality coastlines. Analysis of silt volume at the estuaries reveals that the Yangtze River carries 10 times more silt than the Pearl River Delta. This makes Shenzhen and Hong Kong the only megacities in China capable of building their city centers on the coastline.

【The Internal Logic and Interaction Mechanism between Real Estate and Consumption】
Qiu Baoxing (Former Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Academician of the International Eurasian Academy of Sciences):
"The relationship between real estate and consumption is very clear. Only by stabilizing asset value and market expectations can consumption truly be stabilized. It is not enough to simply try to stimulate consumption; we must first stabilize asset value and market expectations."
"A household's consumption capacity mainly depends on two factors: first, how much asset the household has; second, the expectation of future income."
"Current low consumption is precisely due to the impact on these two foundations. The decline in the real estate market has directly led to a significant shrinkage of household assets, while also weakening people's confidence in future income, thereby inevitably suppressing consumption. Some experts proposed a few years ago that the high real estate prices have squeezed out consumption; this viewpoint is incorrect."
Zhu Ning (Professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University):
"We must face the investment attributes of real estate. In 2016, the concept of 'housing is for living, not for speculation' was proposed. 'Living' emphasizes consumption attributes, while 'speculation' refers to speculation. However, real estate also has investment attributes, similar to government bonds and stocks. Currently, in some regions where house prices are falling, rental yields are close to 2%, which, while not high, is relatively attractive compared to savings."
"While suppressing speculation, we should not deny its reasonable investment attributes. Real estate has always been an asset with both consumption and investment attributes, and should be viewed rationally from a financial perspective, and its investment attributes should be recognized."
"Two domestic trends worth being vigilant about: first, the market's underestimation of the depth and duration of real estate adjustments; second, the younger generation’s understanding and attitude towards real estate have undergone fundamental changes. Those born after 1995 and 2000 have experienced delivery risks, falling house prices, and employment pressures, and no longer see rising house prices as inevitable. This has significantly suppressed their willingness to purchase homes and related consumption."
"Real estate must be saved. Real estate is crucial for China's economy, social confidence, and consumption growth."
"Moreover, due to the lack of individual bankruptcy and debt relief systems in our country, some homebuyers have fallen into difficulties due to their inability to continue paying mortgages, even being listed as dishonest individuals, which severely affects their normal life and development. In foreign countries, there are personal bankruptcy systems that protect homebuyers, preventing them from being dragged down for a long time due to purchasing the wrong property. I have always advocated for the establishment of a personal bankruptcy law in the country, and in terms of who should bear the losses during the decline in house prices between banks and individuals, I think we should make some policy adjustments that are more favorable to individuals and families."
Wang Boming (Secretary-General of the Joint Office):
"In the current economic environment, stabilizing the real estate market may be more important than stabilizing the stock market. On one hand, the wealth foundation and coverage of the real estate market are broader; the vast majority of households own properties, and its stability directly relates to the asset security and consumption confidence of a wider population. In addition, the number of active investors in the stock market is limited, and the marginal pull of a stock market rebound on overall consumption is weak. Therefore, the stability of the real estate market is a key link in ensuring smooth economic circulation."
ps: These remarks remind me of what I wrote in a group discussion not long ago:
"Whenever there is a real estate crisis, without massive funding and the will of the state to turn the tide, there can be no substantial change."
These remarks also remind me of something I expressed while chatting with a friend:
"… This is determined by the financial attributes of real estate. Once real estate is unstable (at least it must be stable and cannot decline), it will fall, and continue to fall. If you buy this thing, and it immediately drops by 10%, who will buy it? It would be better if it completely lost its financial attributes."

Howard Marks recently said in a conversation with William Green (author of "Richer, Wiser, Happier"):
"The essence of investing is not to seek certainty, but to find ways to make probabilities work in your favor amidst uncertainty."
This aligns closely with Charlie Munger's investment philosophy, leading to the same destination.
Munger said: horse racing is investing, and investing is horse racing.
In this context, Munger stated: "We are looking for a horse with a winning probability of 1/2 and odds of 3 to 1."
At the same time, Howard Marks praised Munger for "turning talent into a complete system":
Charlie is truly a genius. He reads widely, thinks deeply, and can immerse himself in his world of thought all day long. One of his most representative contributions is the proposal of the "multidisciplinary thinking model," later known as the "grid theory." This is essentially like a toolbox for investors.
Ultimately, adults, especially investors, spend a significant portion of their work on "pattern recognition." If you live long enough, observe carefully, and add a bit of intelligence, you will gradually acquire this ability:
When you see a certain situation arise, you don’t need to analyze from scratch: "What is this? Why? What does it mean? What should I do?" You will naturally respond: "I’ve seen this before, I know how to handle it." To achieve this, you must build your own "toolbox" that can identify which tool to use and which model to apply in different scenarios. This is Charlie's strength.
Charlie is not only extremely smart but also deeply thoughtful, with a high degree of systematization. He is also very straightforward and never euphemistic. Regardless of whom he is speaking to, in any situation, and whether it is politically correct or not, he always expresses his views directly.
What I admire most is that he not only has talent, but more importantly, he has turned that talent into a complete system. His talents are structured, methodical, and framed... that’s what allows for long-term success. Moreover, these thoughts have profoundly influenced Buffett.
One of the most famous examples is his advice to Buffett to abandon the "cigar butt stock" strategy—meaning picking up those companies with extremely low prices but fundamentally poor quality, and instead buying reasonably priced but truly excellent companies. It can be said that this philosophy directly shaped the Buffett we know today and contributed to the success of Berkshire Hathaway.

The four words 'strong supply weak demand' are deserving of the title 'Word of the Year 2025'.

This colloquial language is unforgettable.

TIME's latest issue has selected "The Architects of AI" as the Person of the Year for 2025. The inspiration for the photo clearly comes from the third image, this cover from nearly a century ago, "1927 Person of the Year cover of TIME".
As we move into the era of artificial intelligence after a century, the most notable point that makes the Chinese community proud is that among the eight significant leaders in the field of AI in the photo, three are of Chinese descent: Dr. Su Zifeng, Huang Renxun, and Li Feifei.

《Late Point》: How can you get your subordinates to tell you the truth?
Fang Hongbo: It depends on whether the leader wants to hear the truth.
What a CEO or chairman can hear depends on what you want to hear.
I give this example to say that entrepreneurs must have a grasp of the most real situation at the frontline, as this is the source of insight. CEOs of large enterprises often find it difficult to hear the real voice, as executives filter it through layers below; they inherently have this tendency.

“A person's success in society is never determined by their university degree, but by their social skills. This is a truth that countless parents overlook.”
Yes, in reality, there are many adults who have not been socialized. They have never truly socialized. In daily life, whenever I encounter someone who is obviously unsocialized and unable to articulate their reasoning, I often use a phrase from Minnan dialect to describe such a person: “TA has not yet duin big” (duin, pronounced in Minnan, means to describe someone who has not yet grown up).
Every time I meet such a pseudo-adult who has not truly socialized but feels good about themselves, I always want to say: you think you are an adult, but that is just an illusion of yours.

The following set of data 【5.2 years】 VS 【1.8 years】 is shocking.
According to the 2022 statistics from the Ministry of Education: the average technical update cycle for teachers in vocational colleges in our country is 【5.2 years】, while the industrial technology iteration cycle has been shortened to 【1.8 years】. This means that the technology taught by vocational college teachers is often outdated, and the techniques learned by students are often those that have already been eliminated.

This morning around 8:30, I departed from Futian High-Speed Rail Station in Shenzhen to Hong Kong for business. From the flow of passengers boarding, I observed:
Almost entirely young people (the working class); secondly, the proportion of women in the passenger flow is noticeably higher, possibly reaching around three-quarters.
During the peak commuting hours, young people heading south through Futian Station can reach the city center of Hong Kong in just 14 minutes, clearly indicating they are commuters shuttling between Shenzhen and Hong Kong: working in Hong Kong and living in Shenzhen.
Undoubtedly, the 'Talents' and 'High Talents' youth talent introduction programs launched by the Hong Kong government in the past two years have attracted a large number of young talents from the mainland to work in Hong Kong.
Another observation is whether there exists a potential gender structure:
Do young women from the mainland working in Hong Kong have significantly higher qualifications and willingness to work in Hong Kong than their male counterparts? However, it is also possible that young women working in Hong Kong are in positions that are more suitable for commuting between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. On the other hand, the nature of the jobs for men working in Hong Kong may not be conducive to commuting between the two cities.
In any case, the Hong Kong government's 'Talents' and 'High Talents' programs have brought a significant number of tenants to specific residential properties in Shenzhen. Furthermore, this tenant group often has a stronger rental ability. This has become an undeniable fact in the residential rental market in Shenzhen.

I think that during our compulsory education phase, if we can let children have a class like the one discussed by Wu Jun: Why scarce resources should be allocated based on the principle of efficiency priority in competitive bidding, then our future society will certainly avoid the absurdity of raising the moral banner but ultimately becoming a case of well-intentioned actions leading to bad outcomes.
Hayek said that we are told that it is in the pursuit of goodwill that the road to hell is paved.

Yuval Noah Harari proposes a formula in "Homo Deus":
【Knowledge】 = 【Experience】 × 【Sensitivity】
(Knowledge = Experience × Sensitivity)
Relying solely on experience does not necessarily lead to knowledge. The key is whether you can “see” something from the experience. A person with high sensitivity can extract profound knowledge even from a small failure. In contrast, a person with low sensitivity may repeat the same mistakes despite experiencing countless failures.
Harari believes that humanity's greatest competitive edge in the future is not having “more experiences” but rather the ability to extract knowledge from those experiences. This is especially true in the era of artificial intelligence:
Information is no longer scarce (AI is faster than humans). Sensitivity, insight, and reflection are the unique advantages of humans. Therefore, Harari says that the essence of true human knowledge is:
【High-Quality Experience】 × 【High Awareness Ability】 × 【Reflection and Abstraction】
In our limited lives, we go through various things not just to complete tasks but to experience life in the process of going through each event and completing each task.
For a long time, having profound “insight” has been my continuous pursuit. Today, I resonate with Harari's assertion. Our existence is about pursuing experiences that are as broad and deep as possible in order to gain wisdom from them. I believe this is the greatest value of being human. We experience a complete life in our journey and gain wisdom from it.

Introduction: "A trade surplus of $1.08 trillion indicates that there are indeed people making money, and quite a few. But why is there so much lamentation online? Perhaps it's because those who are speaking up are the ones who have encountered problems, while those making money have gone silent, quietly accumulating wealth."
(The following are contributions from multiple participants in the discussion)
1. Hot money is flowing, but not into the livelihood consumption sector, so the feeling in the Pearl River Delta is quite bleak. Currently, it seems that Guangdong is still too focused on commerce and trade, neglecting engineering and science education. Moreover, private enterprises naturally cannot become the main force in research and development investment, resulting in a lack of spillover effects. Shenzhen has experienced a downturn in housing prices over the past few years, but Guangzhou has also been quite depressed during this time. Friends in Guangzhou have even less confidence in the city, and morale is lower.
2. Where is there confidence?
3. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang region.
4. Recently, some new routes to South America have been opened. In fact, if you look at the newly added routes, you will see which places have very frequent economic exchanges. It is the frequent business demands and close connections that support ultra-long routes.
5. Fujian merchants are banding together to go to Southeast Asia. There are many stories in this, and now there are many scams waiting for them in response to this collective effort.
6. Essentially, it's all: I see you well, you see me well. Distance creates beauty.
@貔貅陈
Note: Our country's trade surplus of $1.08 trillion is based on data from the first 11 months. (For comparison, Germany, which ranks second, had a trade surplus of $164 billion in the first three quarters.)

Caixin: The dense skyline is seen by many as a symbol of economic development and prosperity. From an adaptation perspective, what risks has it accumulated?
Li Xiaojiang: Many people understand modernization as the taller the building, the better. Especially some leading comrades, who have an inexplicable sense of comparison, finding beauty in height, size, and oddity. Under such a value orientation, our cities are all becoming the same.
But I believe this is an aesthetic and value system from a time of poverty. Many developed countries have not taken this path; for example, Rome and Paris have maintained their appearance unchanged for hundreds of years.
Of course, more importantly, there is the issue of safety. High-rise residential buildings are even more vulnerable than villages. The lifestyle in a village largely depends on nature. Unless faced with an extreme situation that destroys the entire village, it is generally easier to obtain water and food during disasters.
However, high-rise residential buildings are very dense and their operation highly relies on human resources. When the human systems completely break down, food, water, and electricity become major problems. This was confirmed during the Zhengzhou "7.20" rainstorm. In the entire disaster, high-rise residential buildings were the most affected, for the longest duration.
Our housing usage rights last for seventy years, while elevators last only fifteen years, and pipelines last twenty years. The aging of equipment and appliances accumulates risks over time and directly affects their response capabilities.
Within a seventy-year cycle, several updates and renovations need to be made, and the costs are much higher than those of low-rise buildings. Who will pay for this? Beijing and Shanghai have the earliest high-rise residential buildings, and in recent years, elevator issues have often caused conflicts, becoming a headache for government departments.
Therefore, I have always believed that high-rise residential buildings will be one of the heaviest burdens on Chinese society.
Caixin: Climate warming is closely related to urban fires, with studies showing that higher temperatures lead to more urban fires. Are high-rise residential fires also a significant hidden danger?
Li Xiaojiang: Absolutely. Fires are the biggest hidden danger.
High-rise residential buildings are overdrawing our future safety. We have 100 reasons to oppose the construction of high-rise residential buildings, but the most fundamental reason is fire safety. Not showering or using the toilet can still be endured, but when it comes to life and death, there is no room for compromise.
—— Caixin dialogue with Li Xiaojiang, December 2024
Note: Li Xiaojiang, former president of the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design. The full interview title is "High-rise Residential Buildings Will Be a Heavy Burden on Chinese Society." The above is an excerpt from the dialogue titled "High-rise Residential Buildings Overdraw Safety."
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On: "Inheritance is possible, but dependence is not" | Cultivating children's financial literacy.
1. Research shows that about 66% of American millionaires did not receive any financial support from their parents beyond their college education.
2. A more interesting study indicates that there is actually a negative correlation between the funds adult children receive from their parents and their wealth accumulation — the more adult children receive from their parents, the less wealth they accumulate through their own efforts.
3. The author refers to this phenomenon as "Economic Outpatient Care." Like outpatient care in medicine, parental financial assistance to adult children is often continuous and small-scale. However, over time, it not only depletes the parents' wealth but also undermines the children's ability to be self-reliant.
4. A profound observation in the book: giving money to adult children conveys a subconscious message that parents believe they cannot succeed on their own. This psychological suggestion may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Children may feel, "Anyway, my parents are backing me up," thus lacking the motivation to strive.
5. More importantly, the book finds that adult children usually cannot distinguish between the wealth they create and the wealth provided by their parents as gifts. They will consider parental assistance as their own income, thereby maintaining a lifestyle beyond their actual capabilities.
6. This "wealth illusion" can prevent adult children from ever truly becoming independent.
7. Successful wealth accumulators not only achieve financial independence themselves but also cultivate their children's ability to be financially independent. The book mentions the wise practice of a doctor: this doctor sets up a trust for his children but stipulates that funds will not be distributed until they are at least 40 years old. Because of this, his money has little impact on their lifestyle. They must rely on their own efforts to live, rather than waiting to inherit wealth.
8. However, in China, data shows that 67.2% of first-time homebuyers rely on their parents' "six wallets" for support, with an average amount of 368,000 yuan. This is just for the down payment; many parents also help with monthly payments. Moreover, it's not just buying a house; getting married, having children, and raising children all require parental support.
Comment: In this regard, the opinion of this blog is that it should depend on the situation.
If the family has a certain economic strength, and the child is also outstanding, if the child can establish themselves in a big city, then even if it takes six wallets, they should be supported in settling down in first-tier or some excellent second-tier cities. This is one of the most important measures to change the family's destiny. But if the child can only find a job in a third-tier or lower city, considering that housing prices in small places are very low, then the child should earn money and buy a house through their own efforts.
9. This intergenerational wealth transfer has formed a vicious cycle in China: the wealth accumulated by parents over a lifetime is consumed by their children's mortgage, car loans, and childcare expenses. Because children have the support of their parents, they lack financial pressure and therefore lack the motivation to accumulate wealth.
Comment: It has never been easy to buy property in super cities. The same goes for the United States.
Without the support of the previous generation, unless you are one of the extremely few outstanding young people, it is super difficult to buy property in New York or the San Francisco Bay Area. However, this is of great significance for changing the family's destiny. Therefore, I strongly feel that buying property in super cities is fundamentally different in difficulty and significance from buying in lower-tier cities. As parents, there should be a clear understanding of this. The children should be aware of it too.
10. More seriously, this kind of assistance is often one-sided. Parents give money to their children when they are young, and when they grow old and need care, the children are unable to support them due to their own financial pressures. This is why China's pension replacement rate is only 40%, far below the international standard of 70%.
11. From the children's perspective, accepting parental assistance can indeed make life easier in the short term. But in the long run, what you lose is your ability and confidence to be independent.
12. Most importantly, children should be educated about financial literacy from a young age. They should know how money is earned, understand the difficulties their parents face in making money, and learn how to manage money. At the same time, they should also understand: parents' money belongs to the parents, not to them. They can inherit it, but they cannot depend on it.
—— "The Millionaire Next Door" | Characteristics of Millionaires, Notes
Comment: Regarding this idea in the book, I feel very strongly, which is a prominent viewpoint I often mention — "Adults can only be independent in character if they are financially independent."
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Some say: The main reason for the collapse of asset prices in recent years is deflation.
This is completely the opposite. The correct order of reality should be:
"Collapse of asset prices" → "Causing damage to balance sheets" → "Extreme contraction of consumption" → "Widespread decrease in income" → "Further decline in asset prices"… and so on in a cycle… → "Deflation". The logic that occurs in reality is like this, not the other way around.
Additionally, as shown in the screenshot, one fortunate thing is that regarding "When a whale falls, all things thrive", this long-held belief that "real estate must die for people's livelihoods to prosper" has seemingly begun to awaken many, following the bloody lessons brought by the real world over the past few years.

Liu Jipeng: "The US stock market has risen eightfold over the past seventeen years, consistently reaching new highs. The A-share market, on the other hand, has fallen from 6000 points to below 3000 points over the past seventeen years, which must have some inherent reasons. We can no longer ignore our internal reasons. I believe that, to put it bluntly, it is the reduction of holdings by major shareholders. The reduction of holdings by major shareholders has troubled us for over a decade. The reason why the A-share market finds it difficult to break through 4000 points is fundamentally due to the reduction of holdings by major shareholders; every time the stock market rises, the major shareholders run away."

"AI Father" Geoffrey Hinton:
1. The learning efficiency of AI is billions of times higher than that of humans.
The efficiency of knowledge distillation between AI systems is tens of billions of times better than human information exchange. This is really frightening. Moreover, the speed of AI evolution may far exceed that of human biological evolution and cultural progress.
(Taking the scenario of agent collaboration as an example), thousands of agents work together, sharing their experiences with each other, and then connecting through digital neural networks. This is something humans cannot achieve. Although biological computation consumes very little energy—humans can use their brains just by eating a bowl of rice or a steamed bun—this efficiency is far too low when it comes to information transmission and sharing. If energy could be cheap, digital computation would definitely be more useful than brain computation.
2. Both foundational research and application are very important.
Neglecting practical applications in the development of AI would be a major mistake. Focusing only on application without promoting the development of underlying concepts is also a serious error. Both foundational research and application are very important.
China has the Yangtze River Delta region around Shanghai, where a large number of AI technology development forces are concentrated. The Greater Bay Area (Pearl River Delta region) may focus more on the application aspect of AI.
Both foundational research and application are very important. We need to think about how to create more value through the application and research of AI, proposing new ideas for different application scenarios. All of this is very crucial.
—— Hinton's dialogue with Yun Tianlifi Chen Ning (online), excerpt, December 2nd