老黑说Crypto

The significant depreciation of the US dollar is not a "sufficient condition" for the rise of Bitcoin, but it is the true "trigger switch" and "funding switch" for the last three super bull markets.

Currently (December 2025), the US dollar index is still in a downward channel, and this round of bull market is far from reaching its peak, with historical patterns still in effect.

Aligning the timeframes of the last three Bitcoin super bull markets with the RMB/USD trend:

End of 2015 - End of 2017 (Bitcoin from $300 to $20,000)
→ After the August 11, 2015 exchange rate reform, the rapid depreciation phase of the RMB ended, and from 2016 to 2017, the RMB fluctuated violently in the range of 6.2-7.0, but from the first quarter of 2017, under the dual effect of capital controls and a weaker dollar, the RMB began a nearly 20% appreciation (from about 6.95 to 6.15).
→ During the same period, the US dollar index fell from 103 to 88, which is a typical dollar depreciation cycle.
→ The real ignition of Bitcoin in 2017 occurred during this wave of RMB appreciation and dollar depreciation cycle.
March 2020 - November 2021 (Bitcoin from $3,800 to $69,000)
→ After May 2020, the RMB began a unilateral appreciation, rising from 7.17 to 6.35 in May 2021 (an appreciation of over 11%), which coincided perfectly with Bitcoin's surge from $10,000 to $69,000.
→ During the same period, the US dollar index fell from 103 to 89 (early 2020-2021), with the Federal Reserve injecting liquidity + zero interest rates leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar.
→ The year of the most vigorous RMB appreciation was also the craziest year for Bitcoin.
October 2023 - 2025 (ongoing)
→ After the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the US dollar index fell from 106 to about 98 in December 2025 (a depreciation of about 7-8%, still ongoing).
→ The RMB rose from 7.36 in October 2024 to the current 6.9 (still in the appreciation channel), with an appreciation of nearly 5%, and this trend continues.
→ Bitcoin started from $60,000 in October 2024 and has now surpassed $100,000 (close to $130,000 historical high in December 2025), fully in line with historical patterns.

Core macro logic (the depreciation of the dollar will ignite a Bitcoin bull market): Dollar depreciation = leading indicator of global liquidity flooding
A decline in the US dollar index usually indicates that the Federal Reserve has entered a loosening cycle (rate cuts + balance sheet expansion), with global dollar liquidity at its peak, and Bitcoin, as "digital gold + high-risk asset", naturally benefits the most. #美联储重启降息步伐

Waking up again, it's the bull market's return. Of course, I firmly believe in the slow bull viewpoint. $BTC breaking through the resistance level of 93000 and stabilizing represents the end of the correction. Currently, the rhythm is still strongly correlated with the US stock market #加密市场观察

Missed the opportunity to focus on PIPPIN in the empty TRADOOR, there are always opportunities #加密市场观察

On December 1st, Powell made three statements at a low-key event in memory of George Shultz:
· "We are driving in the fog" → Data is mixed, hesitant to flood the market immediately
· The labor market is balanced but lacks opportunities → Further easing is still an option
· Restrictive policies have significantly alleviated supply-demand imbalances → Current interest rates are significantly lower than restrictive levels
In plain language: QT is dead, interest rate cuts are set, and the door to QE (quantitative easing) is half open. #加密市场观察

Buy the dip $HYPE and $ASTER believe in yourself believe in #加密市场观察

$KABUTO Beetle King Card ➕ On-chain liquidity The foreign community is quite hot and steadily rising As long as it doesn't get unpredictable, the upper limit is still acceptable GOOO!!!#加密市场观察

TRADOOR The dealer has completed another harvest. Pay more attention to the mobile contract. As long as you are attentive and have a keen sense, dance with the dealer, whether it's spot trading or contracts, you can still enjoy a wave of gain #加密市场回调

Bottom up 5X only held less than 1X Recently the market is unstable trading has become conservative Ah Next time hold $TRADOOR #加密市场反弹

December 1st, sending you 12 blessings #加密市场观察
Good luck is coming
Wealth flows like a spring
Everything goes well
Wishing you happiness and prosperity
Things are looking up
No worries
Smooth sailing
Flowers bloom with joy
Like a fish in water
Sweet and loving
May your wishes come true
Endless surprises

Recently, many contract coins are making waves ARC PIPIN TRADOOR... Finding a good spot for spot trading is relatively stable #加密市场观察

BTC 8 o'clock delivery is just a line during these few days of the US market's break, the chart is just for fun 😂#加密市场反弹

#Hakimi's takeoff has verified that BSC can break away from the two saints. Various 2D platforms, Douyin, TIKTOK ... will shine brightly on BSC.
There will be more landmarks like #Vulgar Penguin #Amigatti Duo #Bitter Egg rising #加密市场反弹

Waking up to see $SAHARA, an AI with a funding of 50 million dollars, halved
Market liquidity demystifies VC projects with no practical applications. In an uncertain market, control your own hands; both long and short are giving away money 😂#加密市场反弹

It has been reported that Binance has changed the spot exchange code to allow Chinese tokens to be listed on the spot

The latest commit (ID: 7516690a6a6885d844f1274c164d5fd2b56ea3c0) in the Binance Spot API GitHub repository. This change is part of the diff-b14f21c68f86ea95dc55c25dac01a5d4d5be3d460d7e49a9534d4165bce3d5b1, which updated the symbol and symbols parameters to support UTF-8 encoded Unicode characters (such as Chinese).
This has been interpreted by the community as "the spot API supports the listing of Chinese trading pairs," as the API was previously limited to ASCII (Latin letters), which restricted the integration of non-English tickers (such as "Binance Life").

Chinese tokens represented by $Binance Life have rebounded sharply.
The trading volume in the Chinese Meme segment has surged 2-3 times (according to estimates from DexScreener).

The market is truly messed up right now, liquidity is at a historically low level, even more absurd than the end of the 2022 bear market. It seems that only 10%-15% of real cash is circulating across the entire network; the rest is just air and leverage cutting each other down.
In the secondary market, altcoins jump 50%-200% in an instant, and when they crash, they are directly halved again and again, completely a roller coaster in a liquidity vacuum. Anyone who is late by half a step becomes a victim.
The situation with altcoin contracts is even more exaggerated, with 24-hour liquidation amounts starting casually at 100 million dollars, both sides being harvested, like a perpetual motion machine.
New VC projects are purely "listing equals peak" now. Whether it's Binance Alpha, Bybit, Gate, or directly on major exchanges, the script is basically the same: opening directly at 20-50 times, retail investors swarm in, VC + institutions + market makers precisely offload and smash the price down, pulling one last wave before it goes to zero to give the last batch of bag holders some hope, repeating in cycles.
On the MEME side, it's even more ruthless. Apart from a few with top-tier conspiracy groups (platforms, KOLs, group leaders, and large contract holders are all in cahoots) controlling the coins, the remaining 99.9% of MEME tokens are "short-lived seeds." No matter how impressive the narrative is or how passionate the community is, as long as there are no backers, they go up just to come back down the same way. It’s pure PVP among retail investors; whoever calls out a trade just happens to be a bag holder. The more aggressively they shout, the more brutally they get cut, and everyone in the group is all in every day, but in the end, they all stand in line on the mountaintop.
This market is no longer about investing; it is a naked zero-sum slaughter, in the late stage of total liquidity depletion. The only way to survive is to be colder, faster, and harsher than others. #加密市场反弹

The X402 protocol seems to have quieted down a bit after a wave of excitement following its launch.

The x402 protocol, as an open-source HTTP native payment standard launched by Coinbase in May 2025, utilizes the HTTP 402 status code to achieve instant, frictionless cryptocurrency micropayments (mainly based on USDC), designed specifically for AI agents, enabling autonomous trading between machines without the need for accounts or complex signatures.

Virtuals Protocol is the "leading player" in the x402 ecosystem, similar to Chainlink's position in the oracle domain, having processed hundreds of millions of agent transactions. The community on X views it as the "backbone of the AI economy," with a projected market value to double by 2026 (Gartner predicts the AI agent market will reach $30T).
Compared to the B2B focus of $PAYAI, it leans more towards the decentralized agent market, making it suitable for long-term holding. PayAI has shown impressive performance on Solana, with x402 integration turning it into an "agent hiring platform," and recent hackathon victories have boosted confidence. However, previous analysis shows that its -85% retracement reflects market panic, with short-term rebounds depending on ETF inflows.
Daydreams and Heurist represent "mid-tier innovators," focusing on vertical applications (creative vs. data). They have low market capitalizations (< $15M), but the low fees of x402 (< $0.0001) make it competitive in AI micropayments. Discussions on X indicate that developers prefer these tools for their ease of integration, but caution is advised regarding liquidity depletion in a bear market.
Ping, as a "narrative starting point," has shifted from fervor in October to a wait-and-see approach. Its lack of utility makes it feel more like a gamble, suitable for ultra-short-term trading.

High-quality x402 projects range from the "pure narrative" of $PING to the "infrastructure-level" of Virtuals, showing tremendous overall potential #加密市场反弹

In November 2025, the cryptocurrency ETF market faced overall pressure, mainly due to macroeconomic uncertainties (such as adjustments in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations) and profit-taking by institutional investors. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs experienced historic large outflows, while the Solana (SOL) ETF attracted funds against the trend, becoming a highlight.

The SOL ETF saw inflows for 20 consecutive days, with institutions (such as Bitwise and Fidelity) viewing it as a 'high-growth alternative.' The DeFi total value locked (TVL) reached $4.6 billion (YoY +365%), and the real-world assets (RWA) scale was $0.08 billion. On X, traders referred to the SOL:BTC ratio as 'stronger than ETH:BTC,' with funds rotating from BTC/ETH to SOL. In contrast, the BTC/ETH ETF outflows indicate short-term weakness.

The BTC/ETH ETF outflows reflect institutions' 'de-risking' strategies, with the BTC price dropping over 35% from the October peak of $126,000 to around $87,000; ETH fell 20% from $39,500 to $29,000. The SOL ETF benefited from an active DeFi ecosystem and institutional 'rotation,' with its price dropping 30% to $14,000, but inflows indicate confidence. #加密市场观察

Recently, the AI bubble described by major short sellers is definitely going to happen, but it is not based on the current market. The Americans have not given up on further inflating the bubble, and they are very actively organizing a 'market rescue.' Don't just shout 'bull market' when you see a rebound; we are currently still in the process of bottoming and repairing, so be patient.#加密市场反弹

Brothers, this trench is still long. BA needs to capture the traffic, otherwise, we will be surrounded. Currently, there are moonshot on Coinbase, level 1 has OKX, various tools, and contracts like HYPE. So hold onto your valuable coins, when institutions push, retail investors will have a chance #加密市场反弹 .

The BTC market is in a typical range oscillation pattern, fluctuating between 80600 and 89000. Currently, BTC is at a low point building a bottom. My feeling is that it needs some time to recover #比特币波动性 .