Da ling

Buffett is optimistic about A-shares? The truth lies in three details! Recently, old Ba said that the market in the east has great potential and that valuations are cheaper than US stocks. The price-to-earnings ratio is only 10-13 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.3, which are historical lows. He said that the A-shares want to reach 5000 points or even 10000 points! But we can't even stabilize at 4000 points, who is really crazy? Don't worry, you need to break down what old Ba said. First, his statement about 'cheap' is a fact, but cheap does not mean it will rise immediately. It's like discounted products in a supermarket that might get an even bigger discount. A historical low only indicates that the downside potential is small, but it doesn't mean that a rebound is imminent. Second, old Ba is a value investor and looks at time frames of five to ten years. The potential he talks about may be three to five years or even longer down the line. Meanwhile, we retail investors always hope for a surge next month; this time scale simply does not match! Third, here comes the most crucial point: low valuations are just a necessary condition for a bull market, not a sufficient condition. It's like dry kindling; it still needs a spark to ignite. This spark is a strong economic recovery, clear policy benefits, or a reversal in market confidence. Has the spark arrived yet? Everyone has an idea in their hearts. So the conclusion is very harsh: old Ba is not crazy; he is playing a completely different game than we are. He is strategizing for the next five years, while we are focused on the daily fluctuations of K-line. Remember, in the market, being right and making money are two different things, separated by the three mountains of time, strategy, and patience.

😎😱A visual summary of Arthur Hayes' 2025 "predictions"!

From the early year peak in March, to multiple calls of "$250,000 by the end of the year", and then to multi-line bets on ETH, SOL, ZEC, HYPE, @CryptoHayes has indeed left a wealth of valuable material this year:

He predicted BTC would pull back to $70,000 and then restart its rise;
—Determined that Trump would not bet on Bitcoin as a national treasury reserve;
—Expected ETH to surge before SOL;
—Believed TGA and Japan's stimulus plan would spark a new climax;
—Judged that ZEC and HYPE might explode;
—Emphasized multiple times that BTC would challenge the $200,000-$250,000 range by the end of the year.

It has been proven that this year's market is far more complex than any single narrative, but these "bold predictions" also constitute a unique cultural landscape in the crypto industry~~~

See the big picture below, feel free to rate: How many points do you give Hayes' annual prediction accuracy? 👇👀(PANews)

Whose life is this!!!
Remember that the person who gives you USTD loves you more than the person who gives you RMB! Because the exchange rate of U is 7 times that of R!!!

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike Countdown: The Calm Before the Storm in the Crypto Market
Core Judgment $ETH, $SOL, $BNB
The market has partially priced in the situation, but leveraged positions remain in a high-risk zone. It is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish before the meeting on December 19.
According to authoritative reports from Securities Times, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has clearly signaled: the meeting on December 19 will assess the pros and cons of interest rate hikes. Market pricing indicates that the probability of a rate hike has surged to over 80%, but the key disagreement lies in:
Baseline Scenario: A rate hike of 25 basis points to 0.75% (the highest level since 1995)
Risk Scenario: If inflation data exceeds expectations, a more aggressive rate hike of 50 basis points may occur
Unexpected Scenario: Delaying the rate hike triggers a short-covering rebound
Yen Arbitrage Trading: The Collapsing Domino Effect
Japan's 30-year ultra-loose policy has spawned the world's largest arbitrage trade—investors borrow yen at zero cost and invest in high-yield assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. According to data from CoinWorld:
July 2024 Rate Hike Case: Bitcoin plummeted 23% on that day, with over $20 billion in liquidations across the network.
Current Leverage Scale: According to Coindesk tracking, nearly $1 billion in leveraged cryptocurrency positions are still facing liquidation risks.
Cryptocurrency Leverage Sensitivity Key Support Risk Levels: BTC High (Institutional Holdings Concentrated) $85,000 High Risk, ETH Extremely High (DeFi Leverage Disaster Area) $2,600 Extremely High Risk, SOL Medium (Asian Capital Preference) $180 Medium-High Risk
History does not repeat itself simply, but it does rhyme.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal warned: "Yen arbitrage trading is the largest macro leverage strategy globally, and liquidations will simultaneously impact stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies." However, there are key differences in 2025:
Pricing Level: The current market has reflected rate hike expectations three months in advance, unlike the surprise rate hike in July 2024.
Leverage Structure: Exchange data shows that open contracts have decreased by 40% compared to the peak in 2024.
Policy Buffer: The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 creates a hedge, limiting the cliff of dollar liquidity.
Practical Strategies:
📊 Operation Checklist Before December 19
Leverage Users: Reduce contract leverage to below 3 times, reserving 150% margin buffer.
Spot Holders: Set staggered stop losses (BTC 85,000/80,000 two levels).
Opportunists: Prepare USDT ammunition; if BTC drops below $82,000 after the rate hike, consider averaging down. #ETH Trend Analysis, #BitDigital Transformation

Industry jargon that even a novice can understand!!!
#区块链 #韭菜 #Binance

From Malaysia's Chives to Big Boss, If You Want to Enter the Crypto World, Read This Article
Written for Newbies and Friends Who Want to Enter the Circle
Stay Rational and Patient #Crypto #GettingStarted #Malaysia #MalaysianStocks #wbe3 #FinancialManagement

Let's communicate with each other, great gods.