弈贤日记Yixianbtc

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Current price 4231 of the 'market character'

From the 1-hour chart, this wave of rise belongs to the combination of short-term squeeze + bullish test of the upper breakout.
But it is not a trend reversal, but rather:

A bullish test at the upper edge of the oscillation range, rather than a trend restart.

Why this judgment?

1. BOLL upper breakout but not strong enough

After the price breaks above the upper band, it does not quickly detach from the upper band, indicating it is not a strong trend, but an 'emotional spike'.

2. The middle band 4209 is the true life line of the trend

The BOLL MID = 4209 on your chart is the current market's 'emotional switching point'.
Hold → Bullish controls the rhythm
Break → Continue to retrace

3. The structure of this segment of the market is a 'pinnacle-style pullback'

The price has strongly pulled up from around 4173, but the volume and momentum are clearly not as strong as the attack on 12/1, therefore:

This is more like a corrective rally rather than a new trend.

Long logic

Safe long → Retracement 4208–4215 (middle band + bullish defense zone)

This is the true 'life gate' of the current bulls.
As long as it doesn't break 4208, the bullish structure remains intact.

Target: 4238 → 4252
Stop loss: Break below 4200–4196 (must exit)

Aggressive long → Current price 4230–4235 does not fall back to the middle band

Applicable when you see that bullish sentiment has not disappeared and no strong bearish reversal appears in one minute/five minutes.

Target: 4245 → 4260
Stop loss: Below 4220

The characteristics of this type of order: capture volatility, but not a trend order.

Short

Pullback does not reach 4250–4260 (excellent short point)

This is the resonant ceiling of news and technical analysis.
Every time the price reaches this area, there are signs of capital reduction.

Short target: 4220 → 4208 → 4190
Stop loss: Above 4268

Bearish sentiment → Break below 4208 and cannot quickly recover

As long as the middle band is lost, the bearish rhythm takes over.

Short target: 4185 → 4173
Stop loss: 4218

This type of short order can usually capture a segment of the trend, without being too greedy.

Key pressure zone (bearish ambush zone): 4250–4265

→ If this zone is not broken, the large-scale trend will not restart.
→ Every attack is a selling opportunity.

Key support zone (bullish moat): 4208–4215

→ If this zone is not broken, the short-term bullish structure remains intact.
→ If broken, the trend switches to bearish.

Strong support: 4173–4180

→ Breaking below means the current bullish momentum in gold is ineffective.

The buy order given yesterday also reached precisely
The trend is provided
Whether to listen or not depends on one's own ability

The current BTC is performing a **"Dragon Slayer has arranged the plot play"

The main force wants you to believe:
• Can't go up → You cut your losses
• Can't go down → You shorted
• In the end, treat you as a contrarian indicator

What it wants is not the trend
It's your chips
It's your emotions
It's your state of being repeatedly drained yet still too afraid to leave

This is the main force's victory.

Structure analysis:

The current market situation is:

94500 top cashing out → 90200 grinding mentality → High short, low long cut back and forth

MACD turns bearish, but does not crash
BOLL contracts, but does not break
This indicates:

The main force is dragging time, clearing out the impatient

The two zones where the main force is setting up:

Above 91500 is a false strong zone
Gives you hope to chase
Then instantly a bearish candle slaps you

Below 89500 is a trap short zone
Makes you think it's crashing
Resulting in an instant pullback forcing you to cover long

Every time you say "I understand"
It's all a guided illusion

Bullish ambush position: around 89500–90200
This is the main force's true protective zone
Touching it can be bought, losing it means to roll away
Short-term long rebound target is first at 91500
Then look at 93000
Whether it can break through 94500 will determine the trend

Bearish sniper position: around 93000–94000
This is the true inducement zone
Encounter resistance means short
Pullback first look at 90800
Strongly breaking 89500 will retest 87500 or even lower.

Current Status of ETH — “Feigning Death”

ETH is not as strong as BTC; it is currently pretending to be weak:

• On the surface: sideways, grinding, low volume
• Inside: funds are secretly changing hands at the bottom
• Purpose: to make retail investors lose faith and patience

What the main players hate the most is:
“You see that I’m about to rise, yet you still dare to follow and profit.”

So the current fluctuations are a way of harvesting that grinds down willpower slowly.

The MACD has already started to flip bearish, but without a large volume drop, it indicates:

The main players want to shake off positions but do not want to crash the market.

What they want is:
You can’t hold above 3000, and below 2900, you get stuck in losses.

Core structure: snake-like pulling, waiting for the wind to rise.

BOLL band is contracting, and the price is repeatedly near the middle track.
This is about building momentum, not wasting it.

The common logic for this structure of ETH:
1. First, drop to show you
2. Then shake until you doubt your life
3. Then suddenly surge
4. You don’t dare chase
5. It charges all the way up.

This is its trick.

📌 What does the news suggest?

• Ethereum ecosystem upgrade is approaching
• L2 is becoming stronger overall
• Institutions have started positioning for ETH at a discount
• Retail attention has been completely taken away by BTC

When the entire market revolves around BTC,
ETH loves to make sneak attacks — because no one is watching it.

That’s its “profitable trend.”

The true cheap chip area for bulls: 2980–3020 range.

Stop loss if it breaks below 2950.

As long as it holds above 3050, the upper space opens up.
First target 3150.
Breaking strongly through 3150 will head straight for around 3250–3300.
Further up: 3450.

The truly effective strike zone for bears: 3220–3250 range.

No break, no short.

Here, the rebound is obviously weak, which is the main players telling you to get off.
Look for a drop to 3080 first.
Then look for 3000.
If it breaks strongly below 2950, then the lower 2800 will be tested again.

A piercingly insightful statement:

The current market for ETH is:

Deliberately acting weak to make you hand over cheap chips.

It will not rise when everyone is ready.
It likes to sneak attack while people are asleep.
It prefers to take off only after you’ve stopped out.

At that time, letting 3180 empty was also incredibly precise.

Listen to me on Friday
Isn't it uncomfortable to hold at least over a hundred long positions now?

btc analysis

Big structure: downtrend exhaustion → Transition to oscillation repair
• The downtrend from 103,456 → 80,600 on the left side has ended, followed by continuous sideways oscillation
• Current price is running near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands → Accumulation period before direction selection

BOLL signal: Convergence → Major volatility is coming
• The upper and lower bands continue to narrow = market energy compression
• Price has returned above the middle track, showing signs of stabilization
• If it breaks through the upper band with volume = a new trend cycle is initiated

Belonging to the “calm before the storm” stage

MACD signal: The energy bars have turned red but the strength is weak
• DIFF is still below the 0 axis → Belongs to the rebound stage
• The yellow and white lines attempt a golden cross → Bulls are trying to counterattack
• Insufficient momentum expansion → Key level breakout confirmation is needed

Bulls:

Only layout and lurk for long near 90200–90500
Stop loss if it breaks 89300
First upward target looks near 93500
After stabilizing, aim for 95500–96200

Bearish reference area:

Only ambush shorts near 94800–95500 (not breaking, not chasing)
If strongly broken, exit immediately
Look at 91500–92000 first after a pullback
Further down looks at 89500
If it breaks further, it will return to 88300–88000

Bottom aggressive long position:

88300–88800 is considered the real buying point
Break below 87500 must decisively recognize the mistake and withdraw
May see a rebound to 91500 – 92500

ETH — What I see now is the "reversed breathing period," like just breaking the water surface to breathe, next is the confirmation and consolidation.

After stepping deep from 2620, the market was pulled up like someone drowning being rescued.
The bears thought victory was certain, but the bulls suddenly burst out from underwater, pushing the price back above 3000.
This segment was not driven by retail investors; that big bullish candle is not just emotion, but the trace of real capital.

Paying attention to two key details is very important:

The bulls are not rushing, but are climbing in a choppy manner.

This is not a market that explodes with one push, but rather one that shifts hands while moving, rising while washing.
The style is more like "someone is steadily building a position, rather than quick in and out."

There are obvious sell orders above 3140, but they can't hold for too long.

The main force is neither crashing the price nor rushing it up, indicating they don’t want you to easily get on board.

The most ruthless market for retail investors is not the huge rises or falls, but this kind:
Not up, not down; you’re afraid to chase the rise, and you want to short but don’t dare to.
This usually means — the big direction might be brewing.

Key Levels

Upper resistance zone: 3150-3180

This is currently the hardest wall; touching it easily leads to a drop.
But once it’s strongly broken through by the bulls, the market rhythm will speed up.

After an effective breakthrough, the target is directly at 3280-3350.

Lower support zone: 3000-3030

This is the emotional defense line.
As long as it doesn't break, the bulls still hold their chips, and the bears don’t dare to sell aggressively.

A pullback that doesn’t break this range is the most comfortable entry point for long positions.

Deep water golden zone: 2920-2950

If it gets washed down here, this is the price that the main force loves to accumulate.

At this point, I would unhesitatingly go long with a stop loss at 2880.

Current price 3148, it’s not recommended to chase long; waiting for a pullback to enter long is more comfortable.

Long position layout zone: 3030, 2950, scale in.

Upper breakout point for bulls: 3180.

Breakthrough target: 3280 → 3350 or even higher.

Short entry points: 3150-3180 zone for shorting.

Short position stop loss: above 3205.

Conclusion

ETH is biased towards a strong upward oscillation, but needs to confirm support with a pullback before continuing the attack,
The current strategy is to go long on pullbacks, not to chase highs, and shorting can only be for a brief profit.

BTC 4H Trend Observation——From Exhaustion Downward to Counterattack Testing, the Market Begins to Enter a Selection Cycle

BTC formed a bottom support at 80600 after experiencing a significant drop, and then steadily rose. It has now broken through the upper middle track of the oscillation, with prices consolidating around the 92000-93000 range, representing a typical horizontal repair structure after a downward replenishment.

The significance of this structure is simple: the bulls are not aggressively taking over, but the bears have clearly lost initiative, and the chips are flowing from panic selling to funds patiently waiting for a breakout.

The MACD bars can turn from deep red to green and continue to expand, indicating that sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral and is leaning towards the bullish side. However, the volume has not formed a continuous increase, so a breakout still requires conditions.

The upward pressure is obvious—93500-94000 is a key neck level. If it cannot break through here for a long time, it is likely to retest support. There are currently no major negative news, U.S. stocks are stable, and crypto sentiment is mildly positive, which is beneficial for bulls to test space in the short term.

Bulls

If it retests 90800-91200 without breaking, it can be bought, looking towards 93000 initial pressure, and a strong break looks at 95000. A breakout is likely to accelerate, and a touch of 96000-97000 cannot be ruled out.

Bears

If it breaks below 90000 and confirms with a four-hour bearish candle, the short-term structure weakens, with a pullback target in the 88000-86800 range. Breaking below 86800 increases the risk of reversal.

Summary:

Consolidating above 92000 leans towards bullish, breaking 94000 will take off, breaking 90000 turns weak. The direction is clear: temporarily, bullish is preferred over bearish, but do not chase highs, only engage in pullbacks or breakout trades.

ETH Latest Exclusive Rhythm Analysis —— The rebound has entered the final sprint zone, the decisive point has appeared

Now is a typical case:

“Extreme downtrend → Sweep liquidity → Rapid V rebound → Enter the previous high suppression zone”

The rhythm of the entire trend is very clear, let me break it down for you:

The bottom of 2718 has been confirmed as "main force sweeping losses" rather than a trend reversal bottom

Its characteristics are too obvious:
• Straight-line downtrend
• Quickly penetrated key moving averages in a short time
• No volume quickly retracting below
• Subsequently pulled back strongly above 3000

This indicates:

The decline is not a trend, but a cleaning;
The real direction is: the rebound must be completed.

This is why you are now seeing the violent rise from 2800 to 3030.

Now 3030–3050 is the "first segment endpoint" of the rebound

Why is this important?

Because:
• It is the previous horizontal consolidation area
• It is the upper resistance of the 1H Bollinger Band
• It is the probing area below the previous high of 3099
• It is the starting point of the last short selling

In simple terms:

This is both the first target for bulls and the position for bears to prepare to reorganize their attack.

Therefore, it will definitely be pulled back repeatedly, and will not break through in one go.

MACD has entered a strong volume area, but momentum has begun to show "top divergence signs"

The green bars are getting longer, indicating strong rebound momentum.
However, the curvature of the DIF line is flattening, indicating:

The upward strength is approaching the end.
To continue rising, new funds must be involved.

Otherwise, it will play out as: a small surge → rapid pullback, a false breakthrough.

Long position

2965–2980 (conservative)

→ Previous breakthrough pullback area
→ 1H moving averages converging area
→ Extremely low risk

2925–2940 (strong support)

→ If it doesn’t go down, it means it will continue to rise
→ Going down represents the end of the rebound

Targets:

• First target: 3050
• Second target: 3090–3100 (strong resistance, high probability of not breaking through)
• Third target (extreme): 3130

Long position stop loss: must exit if breaking 2898

Short position

3080–3095 (strongest short point)
→ Previous high
→ Main force selling point
→ High probability of pulling back the first time it reaches

3120–3140
→ Capital sentiment peak
→ The kind that dares to short when seen within the day

Short position targets:
• First target: 3025
• Second target: 2970
• Third target: 2925 (if this doesn’t break, don’t look for shorts)

Short position stop loss: 3148

Discuss today's gold

1-hour chart:

• Gold has risen from a low of 4163 → now 4226, which belongs to a fluctuating rebound structure

• MA5, MA10, MA20 are turning upwards
• The price is now above MA20
• The middle band of Bollinger Bands has been broken, and the price is approaching the upper band
→ This indicates that short-term bullish strength is returning.

5-minute chart:

• Continuous small upward steps
• The upper band of Bollinger Bands continues to rise
• The smaller levels are strengthening
→ Indicates that short-term funds are pushing up, and pullbacks are just opportunities to continue rising.

Current situation: Gold price is relatively strong.

For short-term buying:

4220–4225

5-minute chart is strengthening → A pullback is an opportunity
Short-term points: 4220–4225
Target: 4238 / 4250
Stop loss: 4212

4208–4215 (1-hour MA20 gold main support)

Strong support points (high win rate)
Target: 4240–4260
Stop loss: 4198

4185–4195 (absolute main uptrend position)

This position is the entry zone for large funds
If it comes, act decisively
Target: 4300
Stop loss: 4175

Current ETH (four hours + one hour) core direction: slightly bullish, but属于 "反弹中的多", not trend reversal bullish.

The biggest key signal has only one:
— The rapid V-shaped rebound at 2718 far exceeds expectations, directly returning to around 3000 in one hour.

This trend only represents one thing:
The short squeeze has ended, and the main force begins to do a rebound + fill the gap from the previous waterfall.

Why is it determined to be slightly bullish?

4H shows oversold volume contraction, MACD double lines about to golden cross.

After the sharp drop, the bars are rapidly shrinking, which is not a continuation of the decline, but a typical pattern of "the end of the drop - the beginning of the rebound".

1H explosion of large bullish entities breaking through 2950.

This is the most critical attack line.
It is broken through by the entity, which tells you:
The rhythm of the shorts has broken, and the rebound will continue.

The rebound is not finished yet, as the previous "slump zone" has not been filled.

Slump zone:
2950 → 3090
Currently, it has only rebounded the first half, there is still space.

What to do now?

→ Now (3020–3030) here, do not chase! This is the mid-stage of the rebound.

Two specific strategies:

Plan One: Wait for a pullback to go long (most stable)

Wait for a pullback to go long, the rebound is not over yet:

Pullback buy points:
➤ 2975–2990 (first long point)
➤ 2938–2950 (strong support long point)

Stop loss: below 2898

Rebound targets:
➤ First target: 3058
➤ Second target: 3090 (gap filling endpoint)

Plan Two: Short only after "rebound to the top pressure" (aggressive)

The short position must wait until:

➤ 3080–3095 (this is the best short point)
➤ Or at least wait for a long upper shadow / K line stop rising above 3055

These two intervals are
4H moving average resistance + Bollinger middle track + previous high trapped area + gap filling point
All overlapping positions.

Shorting here is "high win rate short",
Shorting directly now is "guessing reversal", not worth it.

Key summary (very critical):

The current trend of ETH is not a trend reversal, but:

The inevitable rebound after the sharp drop → fill the gap → then decide the direction.

So your rhythm should be:

Do not chase shorts after a sharp drop → Pull back to go long and eat the rebound → Consider shorting again at high rebound levels.

At this stage,
Long has a higher win rate than short,
but must wait for a pullback, do not chase randomly around 3030.

BTC Currently, what you see is a weak rebound structure after a sharp decline.

This hourly level rebound is essentially:

Shorts aggressively hit → Bottom at 83786 → Shorts take profit → A technical retracement to repair indicators

However, the key points are:

The rebound has not broken through the moving average pressure (MA20)

The rebound volume is insufficient
MACD has turned positive, but it's a false golden cross, and the strength is weak
BOLL middle track cannot rise, indicating the trend has not reversed

In other words:

This is a rebound after a drop, not a reversal.
The trend remains bearish.

Accelerating factors in the news

• Last night, the US stock tech sector weakened, dragging down risk assets → Bearish for BTC

• The market is starting to worry about the Fed's hawkish statements in December → Bearish for the leveraged market

• ETF optimism is waning, with short-term net outflows → Short-term rebound cannot hold

The news and technical direction are completely consistent:

Bearish, looking bearish on rebounds, and upward movements are providing better positions for shorts.

Shorting on rebounds

As long as the rebound reaches the following ranges, you can short directly:

86700–87200 (currently close, can try with a small position)

— This is the first structural pressure

88000–88500 (the best short point, quality entry area)

— Reaching here is a scoring opportunity

Stop-loss: 89200

Targets:
• First target: 85500
• Second target: 84200
• Extreme target: 83500

Not recommended to go long, but short-term gains can be captured

There are only two positions to go long:

84000–84500 (strong support)

Only seize the rebound when clear stabilization signals appear
Target not exceeding 300–600 points

83000–83500 (last defense)

This is a bottom that large funds may lift again
But it is akin to licking blood from a knife's edge, suitable only for quick in-and-out

Long position stop-loss: 82500

Now it has reached around 86600 → It is near the first short point

Should you take action?

You can short with a small position

Wait until 88000 to add to your short position
Overall thinking remains bearish.

In summary

BTC's rebound is a weak rebound, and the structure has not reversed.
The trend is still downward.
As long as 88000 is not broken, stick to the strategy of shorting on rebounds.

ETH current trend, let me give you a statement:

The weak rebound after the sharp drop is not a reversal. The bearish structure is still in place, and market recovery will take time. The current rhythm is — up to give shorts, down has inertia.

Why make this judgment?

The sharp drop K from 3099—2718 is a structural break.

This kind of drop is not a washout, but at the level of "trend reversal".
The drop is too deep + the speed of the drop is too fast → the bulls have been completely interrupted.

The current rebound is a "deep drop repair", not a trend reversal
• Even the Bollinger middle track cannot be reached
• Rebound volume is obviously insufficient
• MACD has a golden cross but is still deeply buried below the zero axis → weak rebound standard

This means that every rise now is essentially a window for shorts to cover, not a strong return of bulls.

The emotional aspect and news aspect have not formed "reversal level stimulation"

U.S. stocks have not provided motivation.
The market's risk aversion sentiment is still there.
The market is still digesting the panic caused by the sharp drop.
→ This is not an environment that can V-reverse.

Short-term (1-6 hours): biased towards rebound, but weak.

What it means is:
It will bounce, but not too far up, it's the range for shorts to increase their positions.

Key pressure points:
• 2845 (first pressure)
• 2880 (main resistance)
• 2920 (strong pressure, can't hold)

When it reaches these points and you see the K line starting to hesitate, it's an opportunity for shorts.

Medium-term (12-48 hours): still bearish dominant.

As long as the price does not stand back above 2980-3000,
do not fantasize about a bullish reversal.

The breakdown position has been confirmed:
→ A break is a break, the trend has not been repaired.

Key bearish points:

• 2845-2880 range: first defensive position for bears
• 2920: second layer of pressure for bears
• As long as it cannot stand above 2980-3000, any rise is bearish.

Breakdown points:
• 2760 breakdown → directly look at 2720-2680
• 2680 again break → retest the 2600 area

Key bullish points:

• Want bulls to turn around? Must rise above 2980-3000.
Before that, all rebounds are just repairs, not reversals.

• The only support the bulls can rely on now is the 2780-2800 level.
But this support belongs to "weak support", not a strong reversal point.

A statement to determine the direction:

The current ETH direction: weak rebound → bearish bias → up to give shorts, continue downwards. Short-term bounce, medium-term drop.

The trend of ETH, which broke through 3000 after stepping down from 3050 without a rebound and fell straight to 2870, is absolutely not a normal correction. This is a concentrated sell-off combined with ultra-short sentiment killing, which already belongs to a phase of uncontrolled decline.

The current market situation is —
The bullish confidence has collapsed, but the bears are also entering a position where the risks of high-level chasing have increased.

Directly unfolding:

Why did it drop to this extent?

The key level of 3000 was lost, and the bullish trapped area was instantly sold off.
In the past, every time it dropped to 3000, there was support, but this time it broke through with almost no resistance, proving that the soil for bulls to hold on has disappeared.

MACD directly shows a green bar expanding
This is not a slow decline; it is a stampede-style escape.
The probability of this pattern directly reversing in a V-shape in the short term is very low; it must first go through a period of oscillation and repair.

Institutions or large holders have obviously taken profits
After continuous oscillation for many days, no one is pulling up, maintaining high costs, so a one-time sell-off triggered a chain of stop-losses.

In one sentence:

This large bearish candlestick is a signal, not the final act.

What must the bulls see to turn the tide?

It’s not about looking for a rebound, but whether the rebound can stand firm.
The current key is not 2870, but two clearer bullish thresholds:

First threshold = 2930-2950 pullback area
This is the recently broken previous low, whether it can stand firm on the pullback is the most important position to judge the authenticity of the rebound.

Second threshold = 3000 integer level
If the future rebound cannot return to 3000, the trend remains weak; the rebound only provides an opportunity for bears to fire back.

In other words:

Rebound but does not go above 2950 = weak rebound
Standing back above 3000 is the only chance to talk about a reversal.

Otherwise, it’s just gasping for air while drowning, not getting to shore.

Bearish direction

Since it is an accelerated drop, the bears are clearer than the bulls —
The short continues; we need to see the breakdown sustained:

Breaking below 2850 = another drop
Target looks at 2800—2775

If the rebound weakly retests does not exceed 2930—2950,
the bears will impose a secondary suppression,
and another wave of drop to 2820—2790.

The real explosive point for a major bearish trend is:

Effectively breaking below 2770
That would signal the start of a new downward trend, with prices potentially flowing directly to 2720 / 2680 or even lower.

In one sentence:

2870 is not the bottom; it is just a step that has been knocked down;
To launch a counterattack, 3000 must be recaptured;
Breaking below 2850, the bears continue to dominate the market.

The script has already been given to the brothers
As soon as it was given, perform according to the script
So generous!

BTC current situation is not sideways, but a consolidation period after accumulation → the last balance before moving forward

The range you see now, 90900—91800, is not random fluctuation; it is like a bowstring that has been fully drawn:

• The continuous support at 90550 indicates clear buying interest, as someone is unwilling to let the market go down

• The upper limit at 91800 is repeatedly unable to break through, indicating that selling pressure remains, with trapped positions waiting to be freed

• MACD green bars have shrunk to the limit, with bulls and bears compressing energy
• The K-line pattern has formed a "small box", getting closer to the breaking point

This trend is not boring, but a necessary convergence before a breakout.

The quieter the market, the more it should not be underestimated — the moment of breaking will be very decisive.

Bullish Initiation

First Wave Signal

▶ 90700-90900 holds + bullish candle bounce
→ First bullish test
Target to look at 91500-91800

Second Wave Signal
▶ 91800 is taken down with volume, retraces and stabilizes
→ True breakout begins
Target directly at 92350-93000

Bearish Scenario (only a break below will be smooth)

First Phase: Short only briefly
▶ The upper limit at 91800 does not hold, peaks and falls back
Target 91000
—— This is a pullback, not a trend

Second Phase: Trend weakens
▶ 90350 breaks down, rebounds and fails to go above 90800
→ Structure turns bearish
The space below will open smoothly to 89500-89000

Third Phase: Accelerated decline (most dangerous and decisive)
▶ 89000 is lost
Panic selling will take over
Targets may even test 87200-86000

You will easily recognize the characteristics of a downward trend:
Consecutive long red candles + weak rebounds + increased volume

ETH—Consolidating with a bullish bias, direction is gathering strength

The current ETH trend is still in the testing phase at the upper range of the consolidation zone (3000—3050). The overall structure is "higher lows + sideways at high levels," which means that while the bears have countered, they cannot maintain pressure, and the bulls still have confidence.

The K-line has continuously pulled back near 3000 but has been brought back, indicating that there is significant capital support here, which serves as effective short-term support.

Although the MACD has not shown strong expansion, bearish momentum is gradually diminishing, the histogram is shortening, and the repeated golden crosses indicate that the market is gathering strength while waiting for direction.

BOLL is in a narrowing shape; once it breaks the range, the market will choose a direction for a one-sided run, and the consolidation will not last long.

There are currently no obvious negative news, and macro expectations remain moderately optimistic. If BTC is stable, it is difficult for ETH to drop significantly, therefore the probability of a breakout upwards is slightly higher than that of a breakdown downwards.

Going long

As long as the support zone of 3000~3015 is not broken during the pullback, it’s a good point to go long.
If you can hold, you can look at 3050 as the first target, and if it breaks out with volume, it’s expected to touch 3080→3100.

Stop loss:

If it breaks below 2990, don’t hold on, just exit.

Going short

Do not short immediately; the bears need to see significant pressure and decreasing volume in the 3035~3050 area before it can be established.
After the pattern weakens, the pullback target is 2990→2965.

Short conditions:

If it remains above or below 3050, don’t rush to short; wait until it can’t move higher before taking action.

BTC is currently in a state of 'sideways accumulation → direction not yet broken → the longer it lasts, the easier it is to show a trend'.
Combining the trend structure with news, I am more inclined to see a rise followed by a pullback, which is a typical 'squeezing up before washing out'.

Key Points

1. The high point of 93080 is like a thorn; the bulls made a push but failed to sustain it
— it became the short-term bull ceiling.

2. The current price is grinding up and down near the middle track, like a snake with its tail bound—strength is building up, but there's no direction.

3. MACD green bars are weakening, and a low-level golden cross is just budding
— it's not a strong bullish signal, but the bearish energy is clearly being consumed.

The pattern resembles a heartbeat flatline before an explosion, but rather than taking off directly, it tests upward, filters out participants, and then gives direction.

Bullish

If the price holds steady in the range of 90600-90750 and does not break,
then it will be an opportunity to go long, targeting first 91500 and then 92200.

The stop loss is straightforward: if it falls below 90300, do not hold, just exit.

If it doesn't pull back but breaks upward directly,
then watch 91800; once it stabilizes, follow the bullish trend,
with a target of 93000-93800 being normal upward space.

Bearish Direction

If 90300 is breached,

and it cannot quickly recover, once pressure forms,
bearish space will open up to 89500→88500→87200.

In one sentence:

If it does not break 90300, I am only bullish; if it breaks 90300, I will reverse my position.