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#代币化热潮

山寨币为什么起不来？别再说是“没钱、没流动性”，这只是表象。

真相只有两点：

1:项目没创新，全是老概念翻新，没人再为“讲故事”买单。

2: 估值太离谱，动辄几十亿市值开盘，散户一买就套牢，谁还敢接？

结果就是：

资金全涌向头部，90%的山寨币没人理；

项目方稍微拉盘就被砸，干脆躺平不玩了；

新币上市即破发，信仰直接归零。现在的市场已经彻底变了：

再也没有“闭眼拿住等百倍”的童话，

只有“短、快、狠”的快进快出。抓得到一波反弹就跑，抓不到就喝西北风。

慢一点、贪一点，就彻底出局。

一句话：

2025年的山寨币市场，不是等风来的温室，

而是刀口舔血的角斗场。

能适应的人吃肉，不能适应的连汤都没有。

近期BSC上的土狗Meme热点很多，但不要盲目持有，应快进快出！最近BSC上一个接一个的热点盘，表面热闹，实际操作难度不小，主要围绕两个方向：币安概念和抖音动物园梗。币安概念近期较多，因为正值迪拜大会，例如吉祥物 $bibi、$WAGBI、$执行官小何，以及昨晚的 $1 等都与会相关。但热点太明显，导致开盘资金分散严重，单是“呀哈币币”概念就衍生出无数中英文盘，大大增加了首波参与的难度。

第二波也不容易玩，这类大会热点往往缺乏持续力，会议结束热度就消退，很多小盘两三天就沉寂，不给二次机会；龙头盘虽未死，但洗盘不彻底，回撤不到ATH的70%性价比就不高。

另一边是抖音动物园梗，近期出现百万级的 $小小，看似稳定，但大概率也和之前的 $茄子 一样，只是一波流。不少朋友将抖音动物园的预期对标 $哈基米 和 $恶俗企鹅，但差距其实很大。$哈基米 和 $恶俗企鹅 已不仅是播放量高，而是成为了广泛传播的网络梗，渗透到各类内容和场景中。因此切勿将 $小小 的预期与它们等同，建议短线为主、及时获利了结。

Brothers, a new round of increase is about to begin. Every last month of the bull's tail, Bitcoin experiences a surge, known as the Christmas market ​​​btc

With one strong effort, one becomes weaker, and with three efforts, one is exhausted. The strongest performance was the night before last, followed by last night, and today it's a bit hard to keep going. After touching the bottom at 123, it rebounded to 146.85. So far, there has been no normal pullback, and 146.85 is at the upper Bollinger band for the day. There's no need to add positions unless it pulls back below 140.

The resistance points above 146.85 are 150.75 and 157. If there's no pullback of more than 7 points here at 146, then there will also be a pullback of 8-11 points to 150-154 because 150 is a round number and won't be stable immediately. Therefore, a short opportunity will arise in the range of 150.5-154. Only after stabilizing between 144.25-141.85 will there be another push towards 157.

Next, focus on bsc

Reasons

1. Sister is the co-CEO, it is well known that Sister likes memes
2. I saw a picture saying that Sister mentioned in the meeting that they want to create more interesting Binance memes
3. A while ago, the two alpha coins with low market value already gave signals

Reasons for the surge, BTC's favorable conditions:
1. Vanguard Group opens Bitcoin ETF trading
2. Bank of America approves crypto allocation advice of 1%-4%
3. Expectations for a change in Fed leadership and a shift in easing policies
4. CZ's "pie in the sky" prediction
5. Musk reiterates Bitcoin's energy-based value

Positive signals for Bitcoin

① In the past month, it first stood above the middle Bollinger Band (90100)
② Yesterday, it recorded the largest volume bullish candle in nearly half a month (increase of 5.8%), while the same K-line on November 18 only had an increase of 0.81%

Overall, it is still within this wave of market oscillation range and is attempting to break through the upper boundary, with selling pressure being largely consumed and signs of volume support emerging.

From a technical perspective, there are still two key levels to break through:

① EMA20 (92000)
② The key resistance level of 93500

From a macro perspective, overall news is positive:

① Firstly, Vanguard Capital will open cryptocurrency ETFs and trading on its platform starting in December (assets of 110 trillion)
② The Federal Reserve has a change in leadership, and the probability of interest rate cuts in December has risen to over 90%
③ Bank of America recommends its clients allocate 4% of their assets to cryptocurrency
④ SEC's "Crypto Innovation Exemption" policy: allows for innovative on-chain product development

A wave of favorable policies has emerged, leaving MicroStrategy as the "lamb to be slaughtered." My plan is to first accumulate some spot positions, then add more once we stabilize at 92000 and 93500. If it breaks 88000, I will cut losses; it may not necessarily reverse, but it is worth the risk-reward ratio for BTC.

Looking back at the last bull market, we can understand the market's rhythm more clearly through several key price platforms.

First platform: $25,000. Bitcoin consolidated below this level for 9 months, and breaking through marked the official start of the bull market.

Second platform: $30,000. It went sideways for about half a year, never breaking below the previous platform's high point ($25,000), and after consolidation, the trend continued for about a month and a half.

Third platform: $50,000 (mainly around $45,000). It consolidated for 3 months, also not breaking below the previous platform's top ($30,000), and then rose again for a month and a half.

Fourth platform: $70,000. During an 8-month consolidation, it consistently held the crucial support at $50,000, and then continued to rise for a month and a half.

Fifth platform: $100,000. It went sideways here for 6 months, never breaking below $70,000, but the subsequent trend lasted a full 5 months, with a rhythm noticeably different from before.

During the first four platforms, my trading performance was very good. However, by the fifth platform, I began to clearly struggle and incurred significant losses. At that time, Bitcoin rebounded from $75,000 to $100,000 in just one month; based on my past experience, I judged that $100,000 might be the top. However, from May to October, Bitcoin slowly rose from $100,000 to $120,000 over 5 months, while Ethereum experienced a strong main wave during this period.

Now, Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000 and has not quickly recovered — the tops of the previous four platforms have not been broken. Considering the prolonged slow rise of the fifth platform over 5 months, as well as Ethereum completing its strongest supplementary rise during this time, this stage is likely to be a period of major distribution. #bnb

Pippin has not paid attention since the last time he shorted and got beaten. Now looking at it, the distance from the last short position has multiplied several times, which is exaggerated. Many of these coins keep rising when they go up, and when they go down, a single candlestick goes straight to the bottom.

Yesterday, after the CEO of MicroStrategy stated that they might sell Bitcoin, MSTR plummeted, leading Bitcoin to continue its decline, hitting a low of 83800.

However, MSTR closed with an exceptionally large hammer pattern, which suggests a high probability of a rebound for MSTR in the near future.

Therefore, the probability of Bitcoin continuing to drop further is low; it still has the potential to rebound and break through the 20-day moving average, testing the resistance level of 96,000.

Although I don't have high hopes for $ZEC moving forward, this round, Naweir has shown epic calling power.

Timing: Chen Zhi's 10 billion Bitcoin has been confiscated, although it's not related to privacy, but it's sufficient for storytelling.

Location: He is an early investor with a large amount of chips; plus, the coin has been washed for years, highly controlled.

People: He has a Wall Street background and followers all over the world; a single tweet is like a signal gun.

Missing out on a 10x epic opportunity is truly regrettable.

The recent drop in BTC has reached a low of 84,000 today. Has it hit the bottom?

1) From the order book, the amount of buy orders is relatively small compared to the larger buy orders seen during the previous three rebounds.
2) Four-hour level: the bullish volume is not very strong, only a little more than half of the bearish volume;

Based on the above two points, the price is likely not to have reached a temporary bottom yet, and it is estimated to drop to around 80,500. Let's patiently wait and see. #ETH巨鲸增持

Old Horse's new avatar $santahat, definitely still needs to watch the SOL chain's market, already tripled!

I've said it many times, international events use SOL, domestic events use BSC, because there are more foreigners in SOL and more locals in BSC.

The Spring Festival Gala mascot can be on BSC, but Old Horse changing his avatar will definitely play the leading market of SOL, and people from all over the world will participate in the P!

$giggle was one of the most promising memes before it went live on bn. Why was it considered promising back then?\n\nIt is a charity meme, and the project team has been consistently donating and engaging, and cz has also been actively interacting and promoting it, so at that time, it seemed highly likely that it would go live on Binance's spot and futures market. As I expected, it indeed went live on both futures and spot, and I made a small profit from it!\n\nSince it went to the secondary market, I haven't paid much attention to it. Today, I took another look and feel that this cryptocurrency has already peaked in its future development. Many cryptocurrencies with strong narratives have basically dropped to their lows recently, while giggle is still lingering, so I'm waiting for an opportunity to short it, always feeling that this coin will drop below 50!\n\nLet's verify it over time!

This week's information:

12.1 (Monday): US October PPI, Q3 PCE
12.3 (Wednesday): US November ADP employment numbers
12.4 (Thursday): US weekly initial jobless claims
12.5 (Friday): US September PCE data

ps: The first week of each month generally sees larger fluctuations, be cautiously aggressive and pay attention to risk control. In the year, there is generally a significant drop between the 1st and 5th (or at the latest by the 7th) of each month, and a large drop is expected around 12.4. This morning's significant drop is not included. So today's rhythm is to first bet on a rebound and then short.