Phoebe 浩

Don't just stare at the K-line! The Federal Reserve's 'hidden agenda' is the lifeline of the crypto market

Stop staring at those few candlestick charts every day! The real eye of the storm isn't in the crypto circle, but on the other side of the ocean at the Federal Reserve's conference table. The latest institutional views have laid bare the reality: as long as the U.S. unemployment rate quietly rises by 0.1% each month, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts next year could far exceed everyone's imagination!

What does this mean? This isn't a prediction; it's almost a clear signal! Weak inflation data and cracks in the job market mean that the Federal Reserve's rate hike knife has long since been replaced by a rate cut candy. But this isn't charity; it's a hidden agenda! Once the global funding faucet is turned on, where will the torrential flood rush? History tells us that a portion will inevitably flow towards high-risk, high-volatility assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Do you think the bull and bear markets are drawn by the big players? Wrong! The real big players are those suited elites who decide monetary policy by looking at the unemployment rate reports. They make slight adjustments to interest rates, and the global market shakes with it. November data has already flashed a yellow light: inflation can be contained, but employment cannot. The next step is the crazy fermentation of liquidity easing expectations.

What should retail investors do? Listen carefully:
Don't be foolishly playing contracts: the big cycle relies on macro factors, while short-term fluctuations rely on technicals. Starting now, reduce watching the K-line by one hour a day, and increase watching global financial news by half an hour.
Position management is greater than everything: keep enough ammunition before expectations are clear. Don't wait until the flood really comes, or you might already be liquidated on the shore.
Focus on the narrative of 'hard currency': if the wave of rate cuts comes, Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute will once again be loudly proclaimed by the world—hold onto core assets, and don’t be dazzled by altcoins.

Remember, in the financial market, the volatility you see is the result, not the cause. The real cause is hidden behind the decimal points of the unemployment rate and in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes.

What retail investors need to do is 'patiently wait for opportunities and act decisively and accurately.' Follow Bai Yue to receive daily real-time strategy sharing + loss prevention guidelines! If you don't know how to time the market, you can follow Bai Yue, who will provide real-time analysis in the community and give the best entry points currently available

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Japan's interest rate hike is imminent, the truth behind this viral image! My in-depth analysis

In two days, Japan will raise interest rates! Recently, this image has gone viral, showing that after the last three interest rate hikes in Japan, the market dropped by 31%. However, I believe this is not simply a reversal of the Carry Trade. Let me break down my views step by step: The overall structural reversal of the Carry Trade requires **two major conditions**—expectations of a U.S. recession + continued interest rate hikes in Japan. Why? If the U.S. does not enter a recession, the annualized return on U.S. stocks exceeds 10%, and Japan's current interest rates are simply not attractive enough to draw capital back. These two prerequisites are the anchors of the overall direction and are also the core reasons for the market corrections in previous instances (the last three were not solely due to the Carry Trade, which I will explain later).

Now, will this time result in a complete reversal? **I don’t think so**. Although yesterday's U.S. employment data was weak, it was far from indicating a recession—10-year Treasury bonds and U.S. stocks showed no signs of trading indicating a recession. Therefore, the first condition is not met. Of course, short-term sentiment may trigger de-leveraging, but the overall direction remains unchanged, and the market can absorb it.

Let’s take another look at the last three interest rate hikes and analyze them one by one:

1. **March 2024 First Rate Hike**: Japan's first interest rate hike in 17 years, also canceling the YCC policy and stopping ETF purchases. This marked a turning point from “super-easy” to normalization, with significance far beyond the interest rate hike itself. Meanwhile, Bitcoin soared from 24,000 to 73,000 in six months; the pullback due to the interest rate hike is completely normal and not the main cause of the Carry Trade.

2. **July 31, 2024 Second Hike**: On August 2, the U.S. unemployment rate triggered the Sam Law, leading to panic due to recession expectations + Japan's interest rate hike, which did indeed cause the Carry Trade to de-leverage. However, later, the U.S. did not enter a recession, and after market fluctuations, it recovered, failing to produce a major reversal.

3. **January 2025 Third Hike**: The chart shows a 31% drop to the April low, but the most significant drop occurred in February-March, mainly due to Trump’s tariff hammering the market, not driven by the Carry Trade or interest rate hikes.

In summary, the last three major drops only genuinely involved U.S. recession expectations + interest rate hikes in July last year. The other two were more influenced by external factors.

What about this time? **Unknown, but the overall direction is calm**. No expectations of a U.S. recession, no demand for a Bitcoin surge and pullback. Short-term volatility exceeds my prediction range; I only implement risk control based on triggered conditions: if recession signals appear, I will re-enter. Investors should not be misled by the image but focus on the essence!