祁菲-F

【On the trading path, giving up is the real zero!】

The most grinding aspect of trading is not the market's ups and downs, but the confusion of trial and error during fluctuations—clearly having a favorable direction, just when you stop loss, it reverses; holding onto positions, yet being washed in and out repeatedly, countless times thinking, "Forget it, I'm done."

But you must remember: in trading, before giving up, the possibility of success will never be zero. Just like recently with silver, after peaking at $58.84 it plummeted, how many people cut losses at $56.5 and missed the subsequent opportunity for a rebound; gold tested the 4240 mark multiple times, some got off midway, ultimately missing the breakthrough market.

A true trading expert is not someone who never makes mistakes, but someone who doesn't easily give up in confusion and finds the right rhythm in persistence. The market is always fluctuating, opportunities are always brewing, and every loss and every hardship you experience is paving the way for the next profit.

Don't let a momentary setback negate all your efforts. As long as you haven't given up, as long as you are still summarizing experiences and optimizing strategies, you will eventually wait for your own trend market.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

PCE data is the most core inflation observation indicator for the Federal Reserve and is the only inflation guide before the December monetary policy meeting. Its published results will directly impact the gold price trends, with the core logic revolving around "Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations → USD/Treasury yield → gold valuation" transmission:

1. Data exceeds expectations (inflation stickiness exceeds expectations)

If core PCE or overall PCE year-on-year/month-on-month is higher than market expectations, it indicates that the pace of inflation cooling is slower than expected, and the market will weaken expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate cuts, even expecting high interest rates to be maintained for a longer period. This will push the USD index and Treasury yields higher, while gold, as a non-yielding safe-haven asset, will lose its attractiveness, and prices are likely to be under pressure to decline. Furthermore, due to the increased weight of this data, the decline may be more significant.

2. Data below expectations (inflation cooling aligns with/exceeds expectations)

If the PCE data is below expectations, it will strengthen the market's bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates next year, even triggering expectations for "dovish signals from the December meeting." The USD and Treasury yields are likely to weaken, and the anti-inflation + safe-haven attributes of gold will be amplified, with prices likely to rise, and the momentum for short-term surges will be stronger than in regular periods.

3. Data meets expectations

Short-term fluctuations are relatively mild, but the market will deeply analyze sub-item data (such as service PCE and core PCE month-on-month). Gold is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation; however, due to the uniqueness of the "only inflation guide," funds will still cautiously speculate, and the market is prone to repeated tug-of-war.

Additionally, before the release of this data, the market has already priced in the increased attention brought by the "CPI absence," and the volatility of gold will significantly rise before and after the data release, easily leading to gaps, sharp rises, and falls. On the trading side, stricter control over stop-loss and position management is necessary.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC

Gold Trading Reminder: Gold prices hold up against the rising pressure of U.S. Treasury yields, will the PCE data be the "decisive factor"? Is the bottom-fishing opportunity here?

This week, gold prices have been fluctuating in a narrow range at high levels. Despite facing the dual pressure of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar, strong support from medium to long-term dip buying and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy prospects have kept the gold market relatively stable. Particularly, as the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for September is about to be released, investors are holding their breath, as this inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve will directly impact the decision-making direction of the December policy meeting.

Spot gold rose slightly by 0.13% on Thursday (December 4). Although the intraday fluctuations were not severe, they fully reflected the market's cautious sentiment: gold prices once dipped to around $4175, indicating the presence of short-term selling pressure, but then rebounded to a high of $4219, demonstrating that buying interest remains active, ultimately closing at $4208.60 per ounce. With the U.S. PCE data set to be released soon, market sentiment is increasingly cautious, and trading space has noticeably shrunk. On one hand, the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has exerted pressure on gold prices, as higher yields often attract funds to flow into the bond market, weakening gold's appeal; on the other hand, the dollar index has slightly rebounded after hitting a one-month low, but its overall weak trend provides a buffer for gold. On Friday (December 5) in the Asian market's early session, spot gold is narrowly fluctuating, currently trading around $4205 per ounce.

Marex analyst Edward Meir pointed out that higher yields have somewhat limited gold's upside potential, while the weakness of the dollar has made it easier for overseas buyers to afford gold, thus maintaining market balance. Overall, this subtle fluctuation in gold prices reflects investors' cautious positioning during the data vacuum period, making significant breakthroughs difficult in the short term. However, the intervention of medium to long-term buyers suggests potential rebound momentum.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美国初请失业金人数

World Gold Council 2026 Outlook: Three Scenarios Determine Gold Price Trends, Net Positions Expected to Rise Significantly

The World Gold Council states that, compared to the suppressive effects on gold prices, slowing growth, accommodative monetary policy, and persistent geopolitical risks are more likely to drive gold prices higher. Investment demand, central bank purchases, and gold recycling can provide additional support, but uncertainty remains high, and significant unfavorable factors still exist.

On Friday (December 5), during the early Asian market, spot gold fell about 0.24%, trading around $4,200 per ounce, still at a relatively high annual price.

World Gold Council analysts pointed out in the "2026 Gold Outlook" report that gold performed brilliantly in 2025, setting more than 50 historical highs with an increase of over 60%. They stated: "Increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and positive price momentum collectively supported this performance. Both investors and central banks increased their gold allocations in search of diversification and stability."

Looking ahead to 2026, they believe that geopolitical economic uncertainty will continue to affect the gold outlook. Analysts noted: "Gold prices generally reflect broader macroeconomic expectations. If the current situation persists, gold prices may remain in a range. However, based on this year's circumstances, 2026 is likely to continue to be surprising.

If economic growth slows and interest rates further decline, gold may experience a slight increase. If a more severe economic recession triggered by rising global risks occurs, gold may perform strongly. Conversely, if the policies implemented by the Trump administration yield remarkable results, accelerating economic growth and reducing geopolitical risks, it will lead to rising interest rates and a stronger dollar, causing gold prices to decline."

They added: "Other factors such as central bank demand and trends in gold recycling may also affect the market. Most importantly, in a context of ongoing market volatility, gold's role as a tool for portfolio diversification and a source of stability remains crucial." #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Key financial data and events to focus on for 12.5
#加密市场观察 #特朗普加密新政

12.5 Morning Outlook, yesterday gold prices showed a trend of initial decline followed by a rise, and have not yet broken through the current stalemate. In the short term, it is recommended to follow the market rhythm, mainly focusing on flexible layout with short positions.

Do not rush to enter the market, wait until the market pattern becomes clear next week to plan accurately, which avoids the risk of fluctuations and allows for better grasp of clearer trend movements.

Suggestion: 4215-4225 range, target 4180-4200, stop loss at 4235

(Personal opinion for reference only, everything is based on the actual market!)
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has hit a near two-year low: short-term bearish for gold

1. Not only were the initial jobless claims impressive this time, but the continuing claims also dropped to 1.939 million, and the insured unemployment rate remained low at 1.3%. The four-week moving average has also significantly declined, confirming the solid foundation of the U.S. labor market from multiple dimensions.

2. This data contrasts with the previous November ADP employment figure, which showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, but initial claims are a more timely official weekly data point and remain an important barometer for the market's assessment of the labor market.

3. However, the bearish impact of this data on gold is likely to be short-term and limited. Currently, the market is pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and future assessments will incorporate more comprehensive data such as the delayed non-farm payroll report to determine the policy path. Ultimately, gold prices will be influenced by multiple data points.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察

The stock market is optimistically warming up, and risk assets and safe-haven gold can coexist without conflict.

The rise in the U.S. stock market has provided indirect support for the gold market. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86%, closing at 47882.90 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 0.30%, closing at 6849.72 points; the Nasdaq index rose by 0.17%, closing at 23454.09 points. This rebound is driven by economic data that boosts expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, although the decline in Microsoft’s stock price has limited the gains. The record 43-day government shutdown had made it difficult for investors to access official data, but the backlog is gradually being cleared, with non-government channels such as ADP and ISM reports becoming the focus.

Keith Buchanan, a senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, stated that the market is reacting positively to this data, and the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance in light of weak labor data. Whether this tone continues as data continues to be released will determine the market's direction. The optimism in the stock market does not mean a weakening of safe-haven demand; rather, under expectations of rate cuts, risk assets and gold can coexist without conflict, as loose monetary policy often stimulates the stock market while enhancing gold's appeal.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金

The US dollar is under pressure, hitting a new low in over a month.

The fluctuations in the global currency market have also injected positive factors into the gold market. On Wednesday, the euro against the US dollar reached a nearly seven-week high, closing up 0.43% at 1.1673 dollars, with an intraday high of 1.1677 dollars, marking the highest point since October 17. This appreciation is attributed to the eurozone's business activity expansion in November, which grew at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with strong performance in the services sector offsetting weakness in manufacturing. Steve Englander, the global G10 foreign exchange research head at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that there is an increasing amount of good data from Europe, and the market is beginning to pay attention to this trend. Meanwhile, the strengthening of other European currencies might indicate optimism regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially as the Kremlin stated that Putin accepted part of the US's suggestions to end the war and is ready for unlimited negotiations.

In contrast, the US dollar index fell 0.45% on Wednesday, closing at 98.87, with an intraday low of 98.82, the lowest since October 29. Following the release of the ADP employment report, the dollar briefly extended its decline, which is related to market speculation that Hasset will succeed as chairman of the Federal Reserve and promote further interest rate cuts. US Treasury Secretary Basant expressed optimism about the economic outlook for next year, but noted that interest rate cuts are still necessary due to weaknesses in areas such as housing. These factors collectively pressured the dollar, making it easier for gold to rise in an environment of a weakening dollar, as gold is priced in dollars and a depreciation of the dollar enhances its relative value. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, believes that the current movement of the dollar is mainly a correction, and technical factors may also support the euro, further pushing down the dollar. #美联储重启降息步伐

Welcome to the new partner's joining, grateful for your trust!
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Obey and follow, and the results will come!
#美联储重启降息步伐

Go with the flow!
#美联储重启降息步伐

Key economic data and events to focus on for 12.4
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政 $BTC $ETH

12.4 Morning Perspective

Gold has sharply declined from yesterday's high of 4240, showing a significant drop. There are currently no clear reversal signals at a major level, but the bearish momentum is showing signs of fatigue, and the selling pressure will further weaken. The four-hour consecutive bearish structure is expected to come to an end; short selling is strictly prohibited!

Recommendation: Gradually establish long positions around 4190-4200, with a target of 4210-4240, and a stop loss at 4180

(Personal views are for reference only, everything is subject to actual market conditions!)
#美联储重启降息步伐 #特朗普加密新政

Is the gold market about to soar? The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut could ignite a $5000 super bull market!

Despite a slight pullback due to profit-taking in the short term, multiple favorable factors are quietly accumulating, and investors' eyes are firmly fixed on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Currently, the spot gold price is fluctuating around $4200, with market sentiment swaying between rate cut expectations and economic data. Analysts generally believe that this is not just a temporary fluctuation, but rather a path leading to higher peaks.

Looking back at Tuesday's trend, gold prices fell after reaching a six-week high but rebounded strongly in the late session, showing robust support from buyers at lower levels.

At the same time, global central bank enthusiasm for gold purchases is high, US Treasury yields have fallen, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions has provided a solid support base for gold. On Wednesday (December 3), during the Asian market's early trading, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range, currently trading around $4208.69.

Resilient rebound of gold prices under profit-taking

Gold prices experienced a typical profit-taking process on Tuesday, with spot gold dropping to around $4164, a decline of about 1.5%. This was mainly because after reaching a six-week high on Monday, some investors chose to lock in profits, leading to increased short-term selling pressure. However, this pullback is not a sign of market weakness, but rather a manifestation of healthy adjustment. During the late session, gold prices quickly rebounded above $4200, ultimately closing at $4205.57, with the decline narrowing to 0.6%. This was aided by the continuous decline of the US dollar index and the rise and fall of US Treasury yields, factors that attracted medium to long-term investors to enter at lower levels.

Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metal Strategist at Zaner Metals, pointed out that this profit-taking is only temporary, and the market is in a continuation pattern that will ultimately break upwards. He even optimistically predicts that gold could reach the $5000 milestone at the beginning of the new year.

Recent US economic data has gradually shown signs of cooling, such as manufacturing data being weaker than expected, further reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In this context, the short-term fluctuations in gold seem more like a buildup, paving the way for subsequent rises.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Don't get tangled up in whether gold
will keep rising!
The answer is clear:
The long-term upward trend remains unchanged,
but in the short term, there will be fluctuations and corrections.
Blindly chasing highs will only get you 'harvested' by the market.

This year, gold prices have skyrocketed over 60%,
breaking the 4000 USD mark,
with over 70% of institutions surveyed by Goldman Sachs bullish,
even 36% predict it will break 5000 USD next year.
This wave of market movement is by no means coincidental,
with global central banks continuously increasing their holdings,
the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations weaken holding costs,
combined with geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties,
threefold momentum has made gold the 'hard currency among hard currencies'.

However, short-term overbought signals have emerged,
with the RSI indicator approaching critical levels.
News about Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations is also weakening the safe-haven premium,
with a correction to around 4000 USD being a high-probability event.
My core viewpoint is:
Gold has upgraded from a 'safe-haven tool' to a 'long-term strategic asset',
but the rise is never a straight sprint.

The truly smart operation is to position during corrections,
not to chase highs.
Are you planning to buy during the correction,
or do you think gold prices can break through 5000 USD all the way?
Come to the comments section and share your judgment!
#加密市场回调 #美联储重启降息步伐

Financial data and events of key focus on the 12.3
#加密市场回调 #美SEC推动加密创新监管