The Market Updates
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The Market Updates
Crypto Trader Since 2007.
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🚨 BREAKING 🚨
60% chance the Fed hikes rates next month.
We are screwed.
60% chance the Fed hikes rates next month.
We are screwed.
🔥 INSANE REVERSAL:
$480,000,000,000 added to the US stock market in last 40 minutes.
Did stock traders listen to a different Kevin Warsh speech?
$480,000,000,000 added to the US stock market in last 40 minutes.
Did stock traders listen to a different Kevin Warsh speech?
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 September rate hike odds jumped to 43.5% after Kevin Warsh raised inflation concerns.
BTC UPDATE
BTC is finally getting rejected from the $79.2K–$80K resistance area after multiple attempts to break and sustain above it.
Now we are seeing a decent decline and BTC has lost the short-term EMA cluster.
For now, $78.3K is the level to watch.
If it holds, we can see sideways movement and another attempt higher.
If it breaks and sustains below, then we can expect a deeper correction.
I am still not calling this a major reversal yet. For now, it is simply rejection from resistance + short-term weakness.
BTC is finally getting rejected from the $79.2K–$80K resistance area after multiple attempts to break and sustain above it.
Now we are seeing a decent decline and BTC has lost the short-term EMA cluster.
For now, $78.3K is the level to watch.
If it holds, we can see sideways movement and another attempt higher.
If it breaks and sustains below, then we can expect a deeper correction.
I am still not calling this a major reversal yet. For now, it is simply rejection from resistance + short-term weakness.
$BTC is dumping after Kevin Warsh says the Fed will bring inflation down to 2%.
He is talking hawkish.
He is talking hawkish.
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh sounds HAWKISH at Jackson Hole:
1. Inflation is better but still sticky.
2. The Fed is sticking to its 2% inflation target.
3. The economy is strong: solid spending, stable jobs, rising investment.
4. Rates may not be high enough yet.
5. Most Fed officials wanted to wait before changing rates.
Bottom line: rate cuts aren't coming easy.
1. Inflation is better but still sticky.
2. The Fed is sticking to its 2% inflation target.
3. The economy is strong: solid spending, stable jobs, rising investment.
4. Rates may not be high enough yet.
5. Most Fed officials wanted to wait before changing rates.
Bottom line: rate cuts aren't coming easy.
Bitcoin is facing the most important resistance of this cycle.
The 50-week moving average sits at $81,000, the line that has separated bull markets from bear markets throughout Bitcoin's history.
Bitcoin dropped 54% this cycle, less than the 2018 and 2022 crashes, but the trend hasn't flipped yet.
MACD, RSI, and Stoch RSI have all turned positive, which is an early bullish sign. But the real confirmation is $81,000.
Bitcoin needs to break and hold above the 50-week MA to enter bull territory. Until then, this is still a bounce inside a bear market.
Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole today. After the last three meetings, Bitcoin went on to rally through September.
The 50-week moving average sits at $81,000, the line that has separated bull markets from bear markets throughout Bitcoin's history.
Bitcoin dropped 54% this cycle, less than the 2018 and 2022 crashes, but the trend hasn't flipped yet.
MACD, RSI, and Stoch RSI have all turned positive, which is an early bullish sign. But the real confirmation is $81,000.
Bitcoin needs to break and hold above the 50-week MA to enter bull territory. Until then, this is still a bounce inside a bear market.
Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole today. After the last three meetings, Bitcoin went on to rally through September.
🚨 TODAY IS A BIG DAY FOR CRYPTO.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole at 10 AM ET.
Markets see a 66.3% chance of a pause and 33.7% chance of a rate hike in September.
Two scenarios:
• If Warsh sounds dovish, we pump.
• If he sounds hawkish, we dump.
Expect volatility.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole at 10 AM ET.
Markets see a 66.3% chance of a pause and 33.7% chance of a rate hike in September.
Two scenarios:
• If Warsh sounds dovish, we pump.
• If he sounds hawkish, we dump.
Expect volatility.
THE MOST IMPORTANT FED EVENT OF THE YEAR IS HAPPENING TOMORROW
Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.
Jackson Hole is the Fed's biggest annual policy gathering. Markets do not wait for the next FOMC meeting. They trade the tone of this one speech.
Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.
Jackson Hole is the Fed's biggest annual policy gathering. Markets do not wait for the next FOMC meeting. They trade the tone of this one speech.
Verified
🇴🇲🇮🇷 More oil is finally starting to make it through the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 6 to 8 million barrels a day are now crossing, still roughly half the amount moving before the Iran war.
And Gulf producers are getting creative to move even more. Some tankers carry the oil just outside the Persian Gulf, then transfer it to other ships that don’t want to risk going through Hormuz themselves.
That’s helping Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait move more oil, while Iran’s own exports remain blocked by the U.S.
And with more barrels getting out, oil prices are finally getting some relief too.
Hormuz is still dangerous, but at least the oil traffic is moving in the right direction.
Source: Bloomberg
Around 6 to 8 million barrels a day are now crossing, still roughly half the amount moving before the Iran war.
And Gulf producers are getting creative to move even more. Some tankers carry the oil just outside the Persian Gulf, then transfer it to other ships that don’t want to risk going through Hormuz themselves.
That’s helping Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait move more oil, while Iran’s own exports remain blocked by the U.S.
And with more barrels getting out, oil prices are finally getting some relief too.
Hormuz is still dangerous, but at least the oil traffic is moving in the right direction.
Source: Bloomberg
The $Btc catch-up rally against stocks may have just started.
This massive gap could finally start closing.
This massive gap could finally start closing.
🇺🇸 Americans rated the next six months a 68.2... The Conference Board treats anything under 80 as a recession warning, and August just went well below it.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 89.4 in August, the weakest since January and a miss versus the 90.2 economists wanted, 2 months down in a row.
Every piece of that future gauge got worse:
* Business outlook: net −6.3%
* Labor-market outlook: net −11.5%
* Income expectations: still positive at +3.8%, but down 3.1 points
The Present Situation Index also jumped 6.8 points to 121.2, the first gain in four months, highest since May.
More consumers called jobs “plentiful” (27.0%, up from 24.4%), and fewer said jobs are “hard to get” (19.5%, down from 21.7%). The jobs differential rose to +7.5%.
That is the disconnect.
The labor market still feels intact enough in August, but the forward view does not.
Write-in answers explain why: Prices, gas, groceries, trade, jobs, war and conflict. Inflation expectations ticked up to 5.8% from 5.6%, and people can hold a job and still feel the ground moving.
Consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy... But confidence usually cracks before the register does.
First people delay the big purchases; car, the trip, the new couch. Then retail softens, then businesses cut hours, then hiring slows, which is the thing households are already afraid of.
Right now the data is saying the present is holding, and the future is not. If that gap stays this wide, things will continue going downhill.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 89.4 in August, the weakest since January and a miss versus the 90.2 economists wanted, 2 months down in a row.
Every piece of that future gauge got worse:
* Business outlook: net −6.3%
* Labor-market outlook: net −11.5%
* Income expectations: still positive at +3.8%, but down 3.1 points
The Present Situation Index also jumped 6.8 points to 121.2, the first gain in four months, highest since May.
More consumers called jobs “plentiful” (27.0%, up from 24.4%), and fewer said jobs are “hard to get” (19.5%, down from 21.7%). The jobs differential rose to +7.5%.
That is the disconnect.
The labor market still feels intact enough in August, but the forward view does not.
Write-in answers explain why: Prices, gas, groceries, trade, jobs, war and conflict. Inflation expectations ticked up to 5.8% from 5.6%, and people can hold a job and still feel the ground moving.
Consumer spending is the engine of the U.S. economy... But confidence usually cracks before the register does.
First people delay the big purchases; car, the trip, the new couch. Then retail softens, then businesses cut hours, then hiring slows, which is the thing households are already afraid of.
Right now the data is saying the present is holding, and the future is not. If that gap stays this wide, things will continue going downhill.
🇺🇲🇮🇷 Trump is HOPING economic sanctions on Iran will divert voters’ attention away from the conflict ahead of the midterms...
Talks have failed; bombings have lost their effectiveness; U.S. munitions supplies are depleted.
Now the White House is eyeing a long-term campaign of economic pressure to FORCE Iran to negotiate.
But that could it all be a bluff? Trump has demonstrated hesitancy in the past in openly opposing the likes of Russia, China, and North Korea.
Tehran’s allies could still keep its economy afloat if they don’t buy the American bluster, and continue doing business as usual.
Trump would need to punish those nations if he wants to gain control of the narrative that economic hardship will make Iran take a seat at the negotiating table.
It all comes down to whether or not those threats are backed up by real, devastating consequences...
Source: The Atlantic
Talks have failed; bombings have lost their effectiveness; U.S. munitions supplies are depleted.
Now the White House is eyeing a long-term campaign of economic pressure to FORCE Iran to negotiate.
But that could it all be a bluff? Trump has demonstrated hesitancy in the past in openly opposing the likes of Russia, China, and North Korea.
Tehran’s allies could still keep its economy afloat if they don’t buy the American bluster, and continue doing business as usual.
Trump would need to punish those nations if he wants to gain control of the narrative that economic hardship will make Iran take a seat at the negotiating table.
It all comes down to whether or not those threats are backed up by real, devastating consequences...
Source: The Atlantic
🔥THIS IS MASSIVE
Charles Schwab crypto clients will soon be able to buy and sell $SOL, $AVAX, and $LINK.
Charles Schwab crypto clients will soon be able to buy and sell $SOL, $AVAX, and $LINK.
$STRC just hit a 3-month high of $97.76.
If it gets back to $100, that’s a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
If it gets back to $100, that’s a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
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