RazorTicks

Sigma delta just hit 10/10 low — only seen this once before. Pressure and compression are maxed out. This is coil territory. When this thing snaps, it's not going to be polite. Watch for the breakout, it's coming fast.

$BTC tagged 66.5k — my bounce zone. Could wick lower to the orange line or slightly under, but we're in reversal territory now. Took a long here and shared alt setups in the group.

Couple clean support plays:
- $ETH holding 1850
- $SOL sitting on 70
- $HYPE at support

Plenty more alts are bottoming, but don't need to shotgun them all. They move with $BTC — if one flips, they all flip. That's how you blow up your account fast.

I'm spot-only, no leverage. If you're using margin, size down and respect your stop. Correlation is real — one bad read can torch multiple positions at once. Trade light, cut fast, don't get greedy.

Longed this level. Yea it's controversial but the setup's there. Stop's tight, if it flips I'm out quick. Not marrying it, just taking the shot.

Binance didn't dump $BTC — they bled it.

No crash. No headline. Just steady, one-sided pressure that keeps grinding lower while longs get picked off cluster by cluster.

Last 24h:
• $1B+ more selling than buying on Binance perps
• $240M in longs liquidated
• Price drifts lower, but never feels dangerous

That's the trap. When it crashes, traders step aside. When it bleeds slow, they keep buying dips, moving stops lower, telling themselves "it's just chop." Every add becomes fuel for the next liquidation wave.

Most still think this is range noise. That's exactly why it works.

Don't catch falling knives. A slow bleed is still a bleed. Protect your capital first — if the setup isn't clean, there's no trade.

$UNG down nearly 4% today — that topping tail from Wednesday still calling the shots.

Topping tails usually retrace 50% or more before the real drop hits. This looks textbook so far.

Below: $3.00 is the major support. That's where I'd look for a long if we get there.

Above: Daily close over $3.39 kills the topping tail setup and opens the door to $3.70.

Setup is clean. Wait for the level, respect the invalidation.

Oil futures flat today — no real chart change after the recent dump. Market's digesting, trying to figure out the next move.

For me? No man's land. No setup, no trade.

$80 is my first level of interest below. Yellow line above marks the first resistance zone if we bounce.

I'm leaning toward another leg down, but not enough conviction to enter. Waiting for a cleaner setup before I touch it.

$NBIS dumped another 14% today, fresh lows. Down 63% from the top now. Watching $87.40 for a bounce setup — might nibble early at $100 if the chart cooperates. Big drop, but levels matter more than the bleed. Wait for structure, not hope.

$BTC down 3.8% today but bouncing off the lows. $66,500 is the magnet here — needs a tap before any real bounce shows up. Until then, just chop and drift. No setup until we test that level and see if it holds or folds.

$GOLD dipped to a new low yesterday, now scraping back above $3890. This feels like noise — bottom hunting, not bottom confirmation.

Not calling it yet. Need to see real strength first. Holding $3890 is fine, but the line that matters is $4190. That's where the structure flips. Until then, it's just chop.

No trade here. Waiting for the setup to show itself.

$NVDA tapped $170 premarket then got slapped back down as Nasdaq dumped at the open. That level's been brick wall resistance so the rejection isn't shocking.

Real question: is this a quick shake before continuation or are we headed for a new low? Honestly don't know yet. A lot rides on the political mess and scandal noise swirling around.

Leaning slightly toward the dip-and-rip scenario so staying long for now but watching tight. If $170 holds as ceiling and we start making lower lows, I'll cut and reassess.

GM ☕️

$TOTAL sitting mid-MFVG, structure mirrors 2022/2023 bottom. If fractal holds, expecting higher low around here.

$BTC at golden pocket inside iMFVG and MFVG — prime zone for a low. Lose this, next watch is .786/POC confluence, same as $ETH.

Translation: hunting HTF longs. Low here + push to highs = major structure shift. Risk is clear, invalidation is clear, upside is clean if it holds.

$UNG sitting in the $3.25–3.40 chop zone right now. Took profit on my long a few days back in this range — no reason to hold through dead air.

Still bullish over the next few weeks, so I'm only hunting longs. But I need a real pullback first, not this sideways grind. If it doesn't show, I sit flat. No setup, no trade.

Don't force it. Don't overtrade. Wait for your edge or stay cash.

Oil futures flat overnight — chart unchanged. $80 is the next support level, yellow wedge marks resistance above. Everything between those two levels is just noise. Watch the boundaries, ignore the chop in the middle.

Gold's grinding higher overnight and my DMs are flooded. Half the crew is sweating every dip after buying. The other half is panicking about missing the move.

Let me keep it real — I take this seriously because I know some of you trade off my reads. That's on me. So here's the straight truth on gold:

- We're in a bottoming process. That doesn't mean we hit one magic level and rip forever. Markets don't work like that. If they did, everyone would be rich.
- $3400 is still on the table IMO — 20-25% chance. Not likely, but possible.
- This zone is the highest probability bottom.
- Zoom out. Stop obsessing over every 1% move.

Transparency: I took a SMALL buy yesterday. My trading group got the alert live.

If you're stressed by the last two weeks of chop, you're either:
1) A very short-term trader (fine)
2) Overexposed (not fine)

If it's #2, cut your size. Trade what you can sleep on. No setup is worth losing your head over.

Fast drops vs slow drops — it's all about liquidity gaps.

$BTC lost $75k and dumped straight to $66.5k. No surprise. That zone from $66.5k to ~$75k was a fair value gap — price ripped through it in days with barely any volume. Thin air = no support = fast drop when it comes back.

Two things I'm always charting:
1. High liquidity zones — pivots, value areas, places where price spent time. Orders stack there. Support or acceleration happens there.
2. Low volume zones — the opposite. Price flies through, nothing holds it.

Around $66.5k, there's finally some structure. Price can hold and bounce here — doesn't mean it will, just that it can. Volume and open interest at the level will tell you if it's real.

My setup:
- Watching $BTC at $66.5k for a reaction before I buy.
- But honestly, alts look better right now. Already grabbed a couple this morning.

No guarantees, just probabilities. Trade the reaction, not the hope.

$CSCO popped 6% after hours on the earnings beat but stalled hard at $107 — that level's acting like a brick wall for now. $AMAT also beat but went nowhere, dead flat.

Nasdaq closed above 28230, so the bias stays cautiously long. These beats keep the momentum alive, but watch how price reacts at resistance. If $CSCO can't push through 107, it's a fade setup. If it breaks, could run.

No trade yet — just watching structure. Bulls have the edge as long as Nasdaq holds above that close.

Volume's dead right now and I know exactly why.

Since the hack, same play on repeat: Binance futures rams price into liq zones, spot quietly soaks it up. Pressure eases, then comes back. Same exchange, same pattern, same clusters getting wiped over and over.

Now it's gone silent. Most MMs are sidelined. What's left? Still Binance—spot buying, futures selling, same time.

Put it together: looks like they used the market to recover hack losses. Push price down with futures, liquidate longs, let panic dump the rest, buy spot cheaper. Rinse, repeat until whole.

Now volume's bone dry. Feels like the job's nearly done.

Can't prove it. But I've watched this flow daily since the hack—hasn't looked normal once.

When the pressure lifts and real MMs return, spot will show where price actually wanted to go. Until then, no setup, no trade. This isn't a market—it's a cleanup operation.

$BTC dropping nearly 3% today and breakdown's basically confirmed unless we get a wild bounce. That puts $66,500 in play as the next support zone — I'm looking to catch a bid there if we get the tap. No miracle = no hold, simple as that.

Not sweating it.

Manage your risk right and you can hold through chop. But if that money actually matters to you, take some profit. No shame in banking greens when it counts.

Market shrugging off the Jensen Huang news — real strength if it holds. Still early, never trust the move until the close, but I'm leaning toward lows being in on $SPX and $NDX.

Key levels on futures: 7628 and 28230. Those hold, we're good. Break below, reassess.

How I'm trading it:
1) Long NW day trade from 28230, holding as long as it runs — closing before the bell
2) Net long tech positions
3) Sitting on cash. Could implode any second with a Trump tweet, Iran escalation, or more AI bubble panic. Stay ready to cut.

Resilient tape, but don't get married to it. Lock greens, respect the stop, keep powder dry.