Murphy
17年老韭菜；研究链上数据和宏观情绪相结合，构建自己的交易思维。保持谨慎乐观 | X: @Murphychen888
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The average relative unrealized loss of short-term holders (STH-RUL) has exceeded 5 standard deviations (purple line), which is a hallmark signal of extreme panic!
This is the first occurrence in this cycle, but it is the 11th time in the past 4 cycles, meaning it appears on average 3 times per cycle.
It seems like 'third time's the charm'; but logically speaking, any establishment of a bear bottom often occurs after bulls have completely surrendered hope, and the market unexpectedly welcomes new hope — if it doesn't work once, then try again.
Now, BTC has pulled back 50% from its peak, and it may not need to drop another 50% to trigger the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: this should not be the only occurrence before the bear bottom is established.
This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear bottom in 'space', it is still clearly not enough in 'time'.
This is the first occurrence in this cycle, but it is the 11th time in the past 4 cycles, meaning it appears on average 3 times per cycle.
It seems like 'third time's the charm'; but logically speaking, any establishment of a bear bottom often occurs after bulls have completely surrendered hope, and the market unexpectedly welcomes new hope — if it doesn't work once, then try again.
Now, BTC has pulled back 50% from its peak, and it may not need to drop another 50% to trigger the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: this should not be the only occurrence before the bear bottom is established.
This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear bottom in 'space', it is still clearly not enough in 'time'.
Sure enough, the allure of BTC at $60,000-$70,000 has begun to show for some large funds.
On-chain data shows that the whale group holding 10,000-100,000 BTC suddenly increased their holdings significantly when the price dropped to $76,000. Between February 1 and February 5, their holdings increased by 57,865 BTC, a total that is already far above the low point of October 25.
So, it's not that there is no demand in the market, but rather that they feel it's not cheap enough. Once the price offers good value, funds will act immediately. You might still be waiting for BTC at $30,000, but the keen-eyed whales may not give you that opportunity!
On-chain data shows that the whale group holding 10,000-100,000 BTC suddenly increased their holdings significantly when the price dropped to $76,000. Between February 1 and February 5, their holdings increased by 57,865 BTC, a total that is already far above the low point of October 25.
So, it's not that there is no demand in the market, but rather that they feel it's not cheap enough. Once the price offers good value, funds will act immediately. You might still be waiting for BTC at $30,000, but the keen-eyed whales may not give you that opportunity!
Trading is not useful for profit, personally it is so, and it is the same for institutions.
Yili Hua has cleared the warehouse, as one of the largest Ethereum bulls in this cycle, ultimately exiting with a loss of approximately -734 million USD, which is quite regrettable... I originally thought it was just to reduce liquidation risk by unloading leverage, but I didn't expect to clear out the spot positions as well.
I remember on December 30, 2025, at the request of my friends, I systematically analyzed and elaborated on 'When do I think ETH is worth bottom-fishing' from four dimensions: 'Emotion, Structure, Cost, Comprehensive'.
In simple terms, when LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, the price is below whale cost, and the market comprehensive score is less than 1 — at least 2 of these 4 conditions must be met to attempt to build a position; if 3 or more are met, then consideration can be given to moderately increasing the position.
I remember on December 30, 2025, at the request of my friends, I systematically analyzed and elaborated on 'When do I think ETH is worth bottom-fishing' from four dimensions: 'Emotion, Structure, Cost, Comprehensive'.
In simple terms, when LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, the price is below whale cost, and the market comprehensive score is less than 1 — at least 2 of these 4 conditions must be met to attempt to build a position; if 3 or more are met, then consideration can be given to moderately increasing the position.
It seems that long-term holders are about to give in.....
🚩LTH-RPRL-7d EMA (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) equals 1; globally, this indicates that LTH as a whole is no longer profitable;
🚩LTH-SOPR-7d EMA (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also equals 1; on a transaction basis, this indicates that LTH is on the verge of structural capitulation.
In the exchanges, "long-term and losing" chips are flooding in, all of this foreshadows that the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" is about to come ......
Once long-term holders begin to completely collapse, it is basically the last "shudder" of every bear market, and also the darkest moment before dawn.
Hang in there, let's be family together;
In two years, you will thank your resolute self now!
🚩LTH-RPRL-7d EMA (Realized Profit and Loss Ratio) equals 1; globally, this indicates that LTH as a whole is no longer profitable;
🚩LTH-SOPR-7d EMA (Spent Output Profit Ratio) also equals 1; on a transaction basis, this indicates that LTH is on the verge of structural capitulation.
In the exchanges, "long-term and losing" chips are flooding in, all of this foreshadows that the "last straw that breaks the camel's back" is about to come ......
Once long-term holders begin to completely collapse, it is basically the last "shudder" of every bear market, and also the darkest moment before dawn.
Hang in there, let's be family together;
In two years, you will thank your resolute self now!
Murphy
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The sensitivity of long-term holders to price continues to rise! If we were to carve the boat, the times when the price reached the same heights in the past three cycles were:
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
Epic level! A massive loss has occurred!
On February 5th, the realized losses of BTC after adjustments reached a historic record of 3.2 billion dollars. After seeing this, everything before seems trivial.
Neither the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, nor the black swan events of 312/519 have triggered such a large-scale loss escape.
There was a similar incident on 2025.11.21, but at that time, Coinbase adjusted the data after organizing wallets. This time, it seems to be genuine panic.....
It appears that 'world records' are meant to be broken; it's been many years since I've seen Bitcoin drop like this without the occurrence of a black swan event.
I believe history will remember this day!
On February 5th, the realized losses of BTC after adjustments reached a historic record of 3.2 billion dollars. After seeing this, everything before seems trivial.
Neither the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, nor the black swan events of 312/519 have triggered such a large-scale loss escape.
There was a similar incident on 2025.11.21, but at that time, Coinbase adjusted the data after organizing wallets. This time, it seems to be genuine panic.....
It appears that 'world records' are meant to be broken; it's been many years since I've seen Bitcoin drop like this without the occurrence of a black swan event.
I believe history will remember this day!
The sensitivity of long-term holders to price continues to rise! If we were to carve the boat, the times when the price reached the same heights in the past three cycles were:
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
👉 2014.9.18, 2018.6.23, 2022.5.7, 2026.2.4; around these time nodes, some events pushed BTC into a deep bear phase:
👉 September 18, 2014: The aftershocks of the Mt. Gox collapse continued to ferment, and after September, the Chinese government stated it would crack down on BTC and cryptocurrencies;
👉 June 23, 2018: China completely banned cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs; South Korea's leading exchange Bithumb was hacked;
👉 May 7, 2022: The Luna ecosystem collapsed, and FTX went bankrupt;
As the saying goes, "The top is a process, the bottom is an event" — perhaps the position we are in now is just one "black swan" away from the bottom.
The last shiver is likely to make LTHs emotionally collapse under high sensitivity, which is likely the end of this downward trend!
What will happen in 2026?.....
(The good news is: from the perspective of carving the boat, even if you buy in now and hold for the next round, there is a 99% chance you won't lose money.)
Slowly declining, but not collapsing - A look at chip reconstruction under panic sentiment from URPD
On February 4th, BTC has fallen from the high of $97,000 on January 15th to $73,000; the speed is fast, and the magnitude is deep, instantly extinguishing the optimistic sentiment that originally thought there would be resistance at 80k. To say there is no panic would be a lie. Therefore, it is necessary to review what changes have occurred in BTC's chip structure during this period and what important information is hidden behind it.
For ease of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, using each $10,000 interval as a section, allowing for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement to assess current market sentiment and behavior.
For ease of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, using each $10,000 interval as a section, allowing for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement to assess current market sentiment and behavior.
Glassnode uses the cumsum formula to calculate those moments when ETF has net inflows, corresponding to the $BTC price weighted average, which characterizes a very "behavioral" institutional cost anchor.
Currently, BlackRock's average cost is: $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is: $73,752; now BTC has fallen below BlackRock's average cost, launching a psychological impact on Fidelity investors.
No wonder during the past November and December, BlackRock investors were the main bearish players, and by January, Fidelity became the main seller.
If BlackRock mainly consists of institutional investors, while Fidelity has more ordinary retail investors, plus MSTR's current average cost is $76,040......
Now it's good, blessings can be enjoyed differently, but hardships must be shared! Let's all be family together!
Currently, BlackRock's average cost is: $83,696; Fidelity's average cost is: $73,752; now BTC has fallen below BlackRock's average cost, launching a psychological impact on Fidelity investors.
No wonder during the past November and December, BlackRock investors were the main bearish players, and by January, Fidelity became the main seller.
If BlackRock mainly consists of institutional investors, while Fidelity has more ordinary retail investors, plus MSTR's current average cost is $76,040......
Now it's good, blessings can be enjoyed differently, but hardships must be shared! Let's all be family together!
Panic Sellers Are Escaping!
On February 2, the on-chain 'Entity Adjusted Realized Loss (EARL)' for BTC — excluding internal transfers between the same entity — reached as high as $1.3 billion.
Although it is much smaller than the $1.8 billion EARL generated when BTC plummeted to $85,000 on November 21, 2025, it is still not insignificant. Even in the past ten years, the number of days when BTC's daily EARL exceeded $1 billion is limited.
It can only be under a bearish market background that so many fearful sellers are forced to sell. However, the clearing of panic selling can also provide BTC, which is in a downtrend, with a hard-won opportunity to breathe. Reduced selling pressure is conducive to a temporary stabilization in the short term, which naturally creates expectations for a rebound.
Although it is much smaller than the $1.8 billion EARL generated when BTC plummeted to $85,000 on November 21, 2025, it is still not insignificant. Even in the past ten years, the number of days when BTC's daily EARL exceeded $1 billion is limited.
It can only be under a bearish market background that so many fearful sellers are forced to sell. However, the clearing of panic selling can also provide BTC, which is in a downtrend, with a hard-won opportunity to breathe. Reduced selling pressure is conducive to a temporary stabilization in the short term, which naturally creates expectations for a rebound.
Not Binance's fault, Binance shouldn't bear it
Recently, discussions regarding Binance have flooded the Twitter timeline. In my impression, it seems that during every cycle's bull-bear transition stage, centralized exchanges become the protagonists of the relevant events. For example, Mt.Gox in 2014, FTX in 2022...
Exchanges are the carriers of on-site liquidity, with extremely high weight; once problems arise, their impact on the market is devastating. History will judge the rights and wrongs, but at this moment, I do not wish to see any exchange face issues, just as I did not want to see FTX collapse back then.
There is a saying in the market: 'Binance sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin', and I have also seen CZ respond that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline of BTC really 'Binance' dumping? From the overall data, I don't think so.
Exchanges are the carriers of on-site liquidity, with extremely high weight; once problems arise, their impact on the market is devastating. History will judge the rights and wrongs, but at this moment, I do not wish to see any exchange face issues, just as I did not want to see FTX collapse back then.
There is a saying in the market: 'Binance sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin', and I have also seen CZ respond that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline of BTC really 'Binance' dumping? From the overall data, I don't think so.
BRS=100 ！This is a signal of short-term panic risk release.
It means that BTC has the possibility of rebounding after a significant drop within the price range of 75,000-78,000. At the same time, this is exactly the middle of the "double anchor structure" on the URPD, which historically has shown a support effect.
It is important to note that this indicator does not have a 100% win rate; there have been cases of failure during the bear market phase of 2022 (see Figure 2).
Please make appropriate trading decisions based on your risk tolerance, position control, and financial planning!
It means that BTC has the possibility of rebounding after a significant drop within the price range of 75,000-78,000. At the same time, this is exactly the middle of the "double anchor structure" on the URPD, which historically has shown a support effect.
It is important to note that this indicator does not have a 100% win rate; there have been cases of failure during the bear market phase of 2022 (see Figure 2).
Please make appropriate trading decisions based on your risk tolerance, position control, and financial planning!
Murphy
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Rebound Peak or Bull Market Start???
At the end of 25, when I renewed my contract with the Glassnode team, they acknowledged my contributions to the Chinese community over the past year, especially granting me access to the 'proprietary signals' which were originally only available to institutional clients. To be honest, the content here is completely different from what I've seen in the past (too professional), so much so that after all this time, I still haven't fully understood it.
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
However, there is one indicator that I have observed to be quite effective for capturing the peak range of rebounds, and I want to share it with my friends! — Bitcoin Risk Signal (BRS)
The overall behavior of whales is changing, and demand continues to decline
The behavior trends of whale groups have shifted from early accumulation and hesitation to now stopping and even turning to distribution, indicating that the main demand side of the market is visibly withdrawing (Figure 1).
When whales begin to accumulate chips, it may not immediately reflect in prices, but it genuinely absorbs the excess supply and can stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift may have an even more profound impact on the market.
Similarly, we can see a similar situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On January 25, when this data was updated, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see citation), and it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2).
When whales begin to accumulate chips, it may not immediately reflect in prices, but it genuinely absorbs the excess supply and can stabilize and boost market sentiment. However, their current shift may have an even more profound impact on the market.
Similarly, we can see a similar situation through the AD-CDD indicator. On January 25, when this data was updated, the AD-CDD was 0.2 (see citation), and it has now dropped to 0.13 (Figure 2).
The gap filling has begun!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Finally, we have arrived at this day, faster than expected...
You may not believe me, but you cannot ignore the emotions and behaviors that objectively exist behind the data.
I know that at this moment, I should not say much more;
I hope you have already made plans in advance and I hope my tweets can be of help to you!
Murphy
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BTC falls with the market but does not rise, reflecting low sentiment and a lack of confidence
Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
Behavioral Implications of STH-RP (Teaching Edition) — From Holding Costs to On-Chain Interpretation of Bull-Bear Switch
STH-RP (STH Realized Price) calculates the price at which the last on-chain movement of addresses holding coins for less than 155 days occurred. In plain terms: where is the 'average cost' for those who bought BTC in the past 155 days — it represents the overall cost center for short-term holders.
Many friends equate it to SMA120 in candlestick technical theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the 'human' cost, while SMA120 is the average of 'prices'; one reflects behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing.
SMA120 changes almost in tandem with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the positions of the holding group during the last and current turnover. Theoretically, if high-priced chips remain still during a BTC drop, then STH-RP will not decrease with the price; conversely, the same applies.
Many friends equate it to SMA120 in candlestick technical theory, but they are fundamentally different. STH-RP is the 'human' cost, while SMA120 is the average of 'prices'; one reflects behavioral structure, and the other is mathematical smoothing.
SMA120 changes almost in tandem with price fluctuations, while STH-RP depends on the positions of the holding group during the last and current turnover. Theoretically, if high-priced chips remain still during a BTC drop, then STH-RP will not decrease with the price; conversely, the same applies.
BTC falls with the market but does not rise, reflecting low sentiment and a lack of confidence
Pancakes, U.S. stocks, and gold suddenly dropped sharply at the same time, which is quite strange; the possible reasons currently include claims of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts, speculation about yen carry trades being unwound, and potential escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war... These are all just possible 'bearish expectations,' but one thing is certain — that is the 'behavior' exhibited.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
BTC fell back down before even reaching 98,000. We have analyzed on-chain investor behavior, where 3-6 month holders chose to exit to preserve capital or minimize losses, leading to an outflow of funds from the market, and the sensitivity of long-term holders increasing, etc. This really illustrates the issue — an unwillingness to take risks and a lack of confidence in the continuation of the market trend is a typical characteristic of low sentiment.
Sure enough! If nothing unexpected happens, the unexpected will appear......
Starting from December 28, the investor confidence index has been slowly approaching the zero axis. Originally, we estimated that under the premise of maintaining the average rising speed, we would be able to return above the zero axis after 55 days.
However! After January 17, the index has once again gradually moved away from the zero axis. This means that our previous estimate of 55 days will need to be extended until we return to an upward trend, at which point we can reassess.
Alright, let's wait slowly...... The future will surely be bright, though the journey may be bumpy 😂
Starting from December 28, the investor confidence index has been slowly approaching the zero axis. Originally, we estimated that under the premise of maintaining the average rising speed, we would be able to return above the zero axis after 55 days.
However! After January 17, the index has once again gradually moved away from the zero axis. This means that our previous estimate of 55 days will need to be extended until we return to an upward trend, at which point we can reassess.
Alright, let's wait slowly...... The future will surely be bright, though the journey may be bumpy 😂
There are signs of capital fleeing the market
From a funding perspective, the net position of the total supply of mainstream stablecoins has shifted from positive to negative over 30 days. Although the issuance of stablecoins is not entirely used in the cryptocurrency market, the demand and application of stablecoins from some marginal gray industries are unlikely to be significantly affected by market sentiment. Therefore, the continuously decreasing portion is likely to be the real purchasing power that originally remained in the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time, the net position of mainstream stablecoins held in the exchange has shifted from positive to negative (30 days). This can also be seen from the fact that the exchange rate of USDC/USDT on Binance has consistently remained above 1 (indicating a sustained high demand for USDC), which suggests some signs of capital fleeing the market.
At the same time, the net position of mainstream stablecoins held in the exchange has shifted from positive to negative (30 days). This can also be seen from the fact that the exchange rate of USDC/USDT on Binance has consistently remained above 1 (indicating a sustained high demand for USDC), which suggests some signs of capital fleeing the market.
On-chain behavior provides a particularly effective perspective for observing market sentiment. From the supply side, when the BTC price rebounds close to the short-term average cost line (STH-RP), realized losses are primarily caused by investors holding for 3-6 months (Figure 1).
Investors holding for 3-6 months are precisely the short-term holders closest to long-term holders. This means that when they are about to break even, their first consideration is to protect their capital rather than continue to take risks, unwilling to shift from STH to LTH.
In terms of realized profits, the profit share of traders selling with profit margins between 0% and 20% has significantly increased (Figure 2). This implies that sellers at breakeven and short-term swing traders choose to close positions with relatively small profits, rather than continue holding and waiting for the trend to continue.
Such behavior exacerbates the selling pressure on BTC near key resistance thresholds, reflecting the fragility of market confidence. If the next rebound to STH-RP still shows such cautious and negative behavior, the confidence of the bulls will suffer repeated blows.
Of course, there is always competition in the market, and the bulls are not so easily subdued. At every critical point of weak balance, the collision of forces from both sides must determine the outcome. If one attempt fails, another will follow, until one side convinces the other, forming the peaks and troughs in this manner.
Behind on-chain behavior is the genuine emotional feedback from all market participants. Clearly, current investors do not possess the confidence and emotional foundation to reverse the trend, which does not change with our personal wishes. However, the stubbornness and layered resistance of the bulls will lead to rebounds after every short-term overshoot.
Investors holding for 3-6 months are precisely the short-term holders closest to long-term holders. This means that when they are about to break even, their first consideration is to protect their capital rather than continue to take risks, unwilling to shift from STH to LTH.
In terms of realized profits, the profit share of traders selling with profit margins between 0% and 20% has significantly increased (Figure 2). This implies that sellers at breakeven and short-term swing traders choose to close positions with relatively small profits, rather than continue holding and waiting for the trend to continue.
Such behavior exacerbates the selling pressure on BTC near key resistance thresholds, reflecting the fragility of market confidence. If the next rebound to STH-RP still shows such cautious and negative behavior, the confidence of the bulls will suffer repeated blows.
Of course, there is always competition in the market, and the bulls are not so easily subdued. At every critical point of weak balance, the collision of forces from both sides must determine the outcome. If one attempt fails, another will follow, until one side convinces the other, forming the peaks and troughs in this manner.
Behind on-chain behavior is the genuine emotional feedback from all market participants. Clearly, current investors do not possess the confidence and emotional foundation to reverse the trend, which does not change with our personal wishes. However, the stubbornness and layered resistance of the bulls will lead to rebounds after every short-term overshoot.
From the perspective of chip structure, the current price ($89,000) falls in the lower middle of the concentrated chip area between $87,000 and $96,000. Meanwhile, there are still 113.4w BTC in stock at the $87,000-$88,000 level, which is currently the strongest support level.
Although the chips at $83,000-$84,000 also appear to be many, this is influenced by Coinbase's wallet restructuring, rather than arising from real demand. Therefore, this is not the strongest support. This highlights the dual importance of $87,000-$88,000 in terms of fund structure and chip structure.
In the short term, BTC's fluctuations within this price range are an important time node for future directional choices. However, at this point, investor sentiment has become sensitive; there cannot be any negative news during this time, as even an inconspicuous event can further undermine the market's already fragile confidence.
On the contrary, if it does not break $87,000, there remains a possibility to challenge $98,000 or above again; historically, before entering a bear market, BTC would repeatedly attempt to impact the STH-RP (short-term holder cost line), continuing downwards only after multiple failures.
Although the chips at $83,000-$84,000 also appear to be many, this is influenced by Coinbase's wallet restructuring, rather than arising from real demand. Therefore, this is not the strongest support. This highlights the dual importance of $87,000-$88,000 in terms of fund structure and chip structure.
In the short term, BTC's fluctuations within this price range are an important time node for future directional choices. However, at this point, investor sentiment has become sensitive; there cannot be any negative news during this time, as even an inconspicuous event can further undermine the market's already fragile confidence.
On the contrary, if it does not break $87,000, there remains a possibility to challenge $98,000 or above again; historically, before entering a bear market, BTC would repeatedly attempt to impact the STH-RP (short-term holder cost line), continuing downwards only after multiple failures.
"It took so long to go up, but only a few days to come down"; market makers sell more as prices drop, and once a breakout to the upside fails, they are often quickly pushed back down — this is the power of the Short Gamma structure.
Currently, we'll see if the remaining Long Gamma at $90,000 (green bar in Figure 1) can pull the BTC price back, with a GEX of 1.17 billion, which is still not a small scale.
However, once the $88,000 level is breached, the GEX here has reached 1.3 billion, and further down is all Short Gamma (red bar), which is an "acceleration" structure, so if BTC breaks below 88,000, it will be very dangerous.
From a technical perspective, BTC's 3-day K line made a false breakout at a key resistance level, and yesterday the daily K line has broken below the downward trend line at $90,588, indicating that on the daily level, BTC has returned to a downward trend (pressed by the trend line) again (Figures 2 and 3).
Currently, we'll see if the remaining Long Gamma at $90,000 (green bar in Figure 1) can pull the BTC price back, with a GEX of 1.17 billion, which is still not a small scale.
However, once the $88,000 level is breached, the GEX here has reached 1.3 billion, and further down is all Short Gamma (red bar), which is an "acceleration" structure, so if BTC breaks below 88,000, it will be very dangerous.
From a technical perspective, BTC's 3-day K line made a false breakout at a key resistance level, and yesterday the daily K line has broken below the downward trend line at $90,588, indicating that on the daily level, BTC has returned to a downward trend (pressed by the trend line) again (Figures 2 and 3).
Murphy
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BTC's funding structure has undergone significant changes:
Compared to January 12 (see citation), the $88,000 Long Gamma is gone, replaced by Short Gamma; the $90,000 remains Long Gamma, but GEX (options Gamma risk exposure) has decreased from $1.2 billion to now $590 million, almost halving.
This means that the support effect generated by the funding structure in the 88k-90k range has significantly weakened. In contrast, the GEX at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which will amplify BTC's volatility.
From the URPD data, the chip structure has not changed much, with a large amount of chips still accumulated in the $87,000-$92,000 range; therefore, this area remains the current strongest support zone, not easily broken.
However! If extreme circumstances lead to a breach of this range, then the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below will greatly increase. According to the law of the "dual-anchor structure," the middle position is around $72,000-$74,000.
Compared to January 12 (see citation), the $88,000 Long Gamma is gone, replaced by Short Gamma; the $90,000 remains Long Gamma, but GEX (options Gamma risk exposure) has decreased from $1.2 billion to now $590 million, almost halving.
This means that the support effect generated by the funding structure in the 88k-90k range has significantly weakened. In contrast, the GEX at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion, which will amplify BTC's volatility.
From the URPD data, the chip structure has not changed much, with a large amount of chips still accumulated in the $87,000-$92,000 range; therefore, this area remains the current strongest support zone, not easily broken.
However! If extreme circumstances lead to a breach of this range, then the probability of BTC filling the "gap" below will greatly increase. According to the law of the "dual-anchor structure," the middle position is around $72,000-$74,000.
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