Mek
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Mek
Trader Institutional & Analyst since 2018 · Binance KOL & BNBChain Martian. Building at Web3 and Sovereign Infrastructure.
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Institutional trader. Focus on capital flow, on-chain data, and macro reading—not price prediction.
The market is split into two groups: those who read the chart and those who read the blockchain. This profile is for the second group.
Free channel. Daily intelligence, at no cost.
Institutional Society Public
VIP channel. Full reports, positioning and institutional depth reading, crypto analyses, and trading.
Institutional Society Vip
Stop being just another statistic in the market. It’s information that most people don’t see.
The market is split into two groups: those who read the chart and those who read the blockchain. This profile is for the second group.
Free channel. Daily intelligence, at no cost.
Institutional Society Public
VIP channel. Full reports, positioning and institutional depth reading, crypto analyses, and trading.
Institutional Society Vip
Stop being just another statistic in the market. It’s information that most people don’t see.
Profits of long-term holders have risen again with the latest bitcoin surge.
This pattern of a rebound in unrealized profitability has only appeared in 2023, 2020, and 2019.
But probably it’s nothing.
This pattern of a rebound in unrealized profitability has only appeared in 2023, 2020, and 2019.
But probably it’s nothing.
See translation
US$ 362 milhões em posições compradas liquidadas ontem.🚨
Três vezes mais que as vendidas no mesmo período.
Em liquidações de uma hora foram US$ 113 milhões em long contra US$ 11,5 milhões em short. No acumulado de 24 horas, US$ 481 milhões no total, com 75% do lado comprado.
Alavancagem comprada sendo lavada logo depois de um rali forte é o mercado limpando quem entrou tarde na tendência.
Geralmente abre caminho para expansões. Seguimos...
Três vezes mais que as vendidas no mesmo período.
Em liquidações de uma hora foram US$ 113 milhões em long contra US$ 11,5 milhões em short. No acumulado de 24 horas, US$ 481 milhões no total, com 75% do lado comprado.
Alavancagem comprada sendo lavada logo depois de um rali forte é o mercado limpando quem entrou tarde na tendência.
Geralmente abre caminho para expansões. Seguimos...
BITCOIN CONTINUES UP WITHOUT LEVERAGE 🔥
Even with the continuation of the uptrend, the amount of leverage has not increased again in the bitcoin futures market, consistent with what I said on the 21st about spot calling the shots.
Note that price is in an uptrend channel with volatility compressing while the Funding Rate continues to decelerate.
This is not a matter of "disinterest" mechanics—it’s a deleveraging and lack-of-confidence mechanic.
Traders got so hurt by the rally—probably caught off guard—that they still haven’t returned to speculate.
This creates room for passive accumulators to guide the market slowly, leaving those waiting for a new strong move behind.
In my analyses today, I’m going to explain why this is happening and at what point it should end.
Even with the continuation of the uptrend, the amount of leverage has not increased again in the bitcoin futures market, consistent with what I said on the 21st about spot calling the shots.
Note that price is in an uptrend channel with volatility compressing while the Funding Rate continues to decelerate.
This is not a matter of "disinterest" mechanics—it’s a deleveraging and lack-of-confidence mechanic.
Traders got so hurt by the rally—probably caught off guard—that they still haven’t returned to speculate.
This creates room for passive accumulators to guide the market slowly, leaving those waiting for a new strong move behind.
In my analyses today, I’m going to explain why this is happening and at what point it should end.
Bitcoin is the ultimate collateral.
You may not understand this concept yet, but eventually you will.
The only asset on the planet that enables permissionless self-custody.
In the U.S., it will now be possible to use BTC as collateral to buy real estate, but this will be replicated across the rest of the world.
At some point, few people will actually "sell" bitcoin. Instead, they will use it as collateral.
At least those who understand money.
You may not understand this concept yet, but eventually you will.
The only asset on the planet that enables permissionless self-custody.
In the U.S., it will now be possible to use BTC as collateral to buy real estate, but this will be replicated across the rest of the world.
At some point, few people will actually "sell" bitcoin. Instead, they will use it as collateral.
At least those who understand money.
Do you know the "digital gold" thesis?
Well, it looks like it’s back with a lot of momentum for Bitcoin.
The 90-day correction between gold and Bitcoin has risen to an all-time high, at the moment when both assets appreciated.
Institutional investors are no longer choosing between the assets; they’re buying both as a hedge.
Probably it’s nothing.
Well, it looks like it’s back with a lot of momentum for Bitcoin.
The 90-day correction between gold and Bitcoin has risen to an all-time high, at the moment when both assets appreciated.
Institutional investors are no longer choosing between the assets; they’re buying both as a hedge.
Probably it’s nothing.
Another reminder that Brazil's real economy is in trouble.
Another 4 years like this—how many more companies will go bankrupt?
Protect your assets while the window still exists.
Another 4 years like this—how many more companies will go bankrupt?
Protect your assets while the window still exists.
About 40% of the bitcoin network accumulated unrealized losses during July.
In relative terms, similar levels to previous cycle fund formations.
Is it a bottom or not? Irrelevant.
The $60k range was already, statistically, a region of high discount in the risk/return relationship.
Are we going back there? We don’t know. But if we do, I predict a lot of people again “waiting for it to drop more” and missing the train.
And the cycle restarts.
Are you really paying attention?
In relative terms, similar levels to previous cycle fund formations.
Is it a bottom or not? Irrelevant.
The $60k range was already, statistically, a region of high discount in the risk/return relationship.
Are we going back there? We don’t know. But if we do, I predict a lot of people again “waiting for it to drop more” and missing the train.
And the cycle restarts.
Are you really paying attention?
SEC preps overhaul of crypto custody rules for investment firms.
Verified
In July’s PCE, US inflation held steady at 3.7%, above the expected 3.6%. 🚨
Core inflation remained flat at 3.3%, in line with expectations.
On a monthly basis, both the headline index and core rose 0.2%.
Prices for goods fell 0.1% in the month, driven by a 2.7% drop in gasoline and energy. Services rose 0.3%, with an increase of 1.2% in financial services and insurance.
Personal income rose 0.4% and consumer spending advanced 0.2%, but in real terms consumption was virtually stagnant, up less than 0.1%.
No signs of a strong “inflation surge,” as many believed it would force the FED’s hand.
PEAK HAWKISHNESS.
Core inflation remained flat at 3.3%, in line with expectations.
On a monthly basis, both the headline index and core rose 0.2%.
Prices for goods fell 0.1% in the month, driven by a 2.7% drop in gasoline and energy. Services rose 0.3%, with an increase of 1.2% in financial services and insurance.
Personal income rose 0.4% and consumer spending advanced 0.2%, but in real terms consumption was virtually stagnant, up less than 0.1%.
No signs of a strong “inflation surge,” as many believed it would force the FED’s hand.
PEAK HAWKISHNESS.
ETFs and short-term investors managed to sell most of the $60k region.
A clear capitulation zone.
Coinbase’s dominance emerged during the same period that the premium went negative, signaling that traditional finance capitulated at the exact bottom.
But probably it’s nothing.$
A clear capitulation zone.
Coinbase’s dominance emerged during the same period that the premium went negative, signaling that traditional finance capitulated at the exact bottom.
But probably it’s nothing.$
Verified
China bought more than double the amount of gold it officially reported in May and June. 🚨
And the official data already shows a historical record for reserves.
According to estimates from Goldman Sachs via the London OTC market, China bought about 48 tonnes in May and 40 tonnes in June.
The PBoC officially reported only 15 and 10 tonnes in the same months—less than half of what independent estimates indicate.
In July, the Chinese central bank declared another 20 tonnes, bringing the official total reserves to 2,366 tonnes—about 8% of foreign exchange reserves, near an all-time high.
Even this official figure, which is already a record, likely understates the real position.
The race for scarce assets keeps accelerating—and the reflection of that in prices will come eventually.
And the official data already shows a historical record for reserves.
According to estimates from Goldman Sachs via the London OTC market, China bought about 48 tonnes in May and 40 tonnes in June.
The PBoC officially reported only 15 and 10 tonnes in the same months—less than half of what independent estimates indicate.
In July, the Chinese central bank declared another 20 tonnes, bringing the official total reserves to 2,366 tonnes—about 8% of foreign exchange reserves, near an all-time high.
Even this official figure, which is already a record, likely understates the real position.
The race for scarce assets keeps accelerating—and the reflection of that in prices will come eventually.
Imagine the guy buying “NUCOIN crypto” and
receiving lucky numbers KKKKKKKK 😂
receiving lucky numbers KKKKKKKK 😂
Verified
The government proposes R$ 1.741 for the minimum wage in 2027, a 7.4% increase.
Meanwhile, here is the change in the price of the basic food basket by state over the first 5 months of the year:
Recife: +21.94%
Salvador: +12.66%
Aracaju: +9.96%
Belo Horizonte: +9.58%
São Paulo: +11.4% (R$ 854 to R$ 952)
Do the math yourselves.
Meanwhile, here is the change in the price of the basic food basket by state over the first 5 months of the year:
Recife: +21.94%
Salvador: +12.66%
Aracaju: +9.96%
Belo Horizonte: +9.58%
São Paulo: +11.4% (R$ 854 to R$ 952)
Do the math yourselves.
The demand for bitcoin returned to positive territory after months of consecutive negativity 🔥
And that changes the type of rally currently underway.
Over the past 30 days, total demand for spot and futures has grown by about 170 thousand BTC.
It’s the first period of correlated growth between the two markets since before the contraction phase that dominated the entire second quarter.
Historically, this kind of simultaneous growth between spot and futures tends to support stronger uptrends, because new demand absorbs the profit-taking from people who bought at the turn and still leaves room for price to keep rising.
A lot of people are going to fall for this trap.
And that changes the type of rally currently underway.
Over the past 30 days, total demand for spot and futures has grown by about 170 thousand BTC.
It’s the first period of correlated growth between the two markets since before the contraction phase that dominated the entire second quarter.
Historically, this kind of simultaneous growth between spot and futures tends to support stronger uptrends, because new demand absorbs the profit-taking from people who bought at the turn and still leaves room for price to keep rising.
A lot of people are going to fall for this trap.
A bear market rally and the beginning of a bull market are, in price, visually identical.
The difference will lie in the capital flow. Because markets are a reflection of liquidity and flow.
As long as there are “doubters,” there will be an information gap.
The current move seems less like a bear rally and more like the start of a new cycle.
But it will depend entirely on flow.
What interests me is the amount of doubters. Because it’s their capitulation—buying in FOMO at every new price stage—that adds new units of purchased liquidity.
About 85% of short-term holders are in profit, and I believe a good portion of them will take profit here, temporarily providing selling pressure in the spot market.
Patience and strategy. We’ll follow through.
The difference will lie in the capital flow. Because markets are a reflection of liquidity and flow.
As long as there are “doubters,” there will be an information gap.
The current move seems less like a bear rally and more like the start of a new cycle.
But it will depend entirely on flow.
What interests me is the amount of doubters. Because it’s their capitulation—buying in FOMO at every new price stage—that adds new units of purchased liquidity.
About 85% of short-term holders are in profit, and I believe a good portion of them will take profit here, temporarily providing selling pressure in the spot market.
Patience and strategy. We’ll follow through.
Good morning!
I’m receiving several questions about my positioning at the current moment, when everyone is waiting for a response to $60k.
The market delivered about 70 days in the $60k region.
But only now that portion of investors is interested in buying there. As always.
This is a good time to revisit what I said in June, because my outlook remains the same since then.
If you think in binary terms (is it bear or bull? is it a bottom or a top? is it buy or sell?), you probably won’t get through many cycles.
It’s all about risk/reward. I’m going to post my view on $60k in today’s analysis.
I’m receiving several questions about my positioning at the current moment, when everyone is waiting for a response to $60k.
The market delivered about 70 days in the $60k region.
But only now that portion of investors is interested in buying there. As always.
This is a good time to revisit what I said in June, because my outlook remains the same since then.
If you think in binary terms (is it bear or bull? is it a bottom or a top? is it buy or sell?), you probably won’t get through many cycles.
It’s all about risk/reward. I’m going to post my view on $60k in today’s analysis.
For the first time since its all-time high in October 2025, demand for Bitcoin has turned positive again in both the spot market and perpetual futures contracts.
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