Mario Vinicius Cripto
Analista grafico, analise macro, trader com alguns anos de mercado e apaixonado pelo mercado de criptomoedas.
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👉 Despite hitting a second historical record in early October, the relationship between profit and realized loss (simple moving average of 90 days) has been showing a downward trend since the end of July.
Now, it has fallen to around 1.45, signaling a clear deterioration in the overall profitability of the market — although it remains above the lower limit of 1, historically associated with extreme phases of capitulation.
Now, it has fallen to around 1.45, signaling a clear deterioration in the overall profitability of the market — although it remains above the lower limit of 1, historically associated with extreme phases of capitulation.
👉 More than US$ 4 billion in leveraged positions have been liquidated in the last five days.
The market remains extremely volatile, with a lot of exposure to risk and practically no margin for error in the operations.
The market remains extremely volatile, with a lot of exposure to risk and practically no margin for error in the operations.
👉 In the previous cycle, Bitcoin found the bottom of the bear market precisely when it returned to test the top of the past bull market as support — a region that ended up holding the price and marking the long-term turnaround.
There is a good chance we will see a similar behavior in this cycle, with the market seeking this same structural logic of testing the previous top as a base.
It's worth remembering that, historically, the price tends to spend several months consolidating in the bottom range, with a lot of volatility and false starts.
It is precisely during this period that a well-executed DCA strategy tends to be more efficient, allowing for position accumulation at an interesting average price over time.
There is a good chance we will see a similar behavior in this cycle, with the market seeking this same structural logic of testing the previous top as a base.
It's worth remembering that, historically, the price tends to spend several months consolidating in the bottom range, with a lot of volatility and false starts.
It is precisely during this period that a well-executed DCA strategy tends to be more efficient, allowing for position accumulation at an interesting average price over time.
👉 In the previous cycle, Bitcoin found the bottom of the bear market precisely when it returned to test the top of the past bull market as support — a region that ended up holding the price and marking the long-term turnaround.
There is a good chance we will see a similar behavior in this cycle, with the market seeking this same structural logic of testing the previous top as a base.
It's worth remembering that, historically, the price tends to spend several months consolidating in the bottom range, with a lot of volatility and false starts.
It is precisely during this period that a well-executed DCA strategy tends to be more efficient, allowing for position accumulation at an interesting average price over time.
There is a good chance we will see a similar behavior in this cycle, with the market seeking this same structural logic of testing the previous top as a base.
It's worth remembering that, historically, the price tends to spend several months consolidating in the bottom range, with a lot of volatility and false starts.
It is precisely during this period that a well-executed DCA strategy tends to be more efficient, allowing for position accumulation at an interesting average price over time.
👉 We warned yesterday that the 60 thousand dollar range had several technical confluences that could offer a good buying zone.
As can be seen in the daily chart, after touching 60k, Bitcoin reacted strongly and almost rose 20% from the bottom to the top of the movement, practically canceling out the drop from the previous day.
For those involved in short-term operations, it already makes sense to realize part of the profit and/or adjust the stop to protect the position.
For long-term investors, it was a very interesting entry region.
Even so, it is still early to confirm a reversal of the macro trend.
As can be seen in the daily chart, after touching 60k, Bitcoin reacted strongly and almost rose 20% from the bottom to the top of the movement, practically canceling out the drop from the previous day.
For those involved in short-term operations, it already makes sense to realize part of the profit and/or adjust the stop to protect the position.
For long-term investors, it was a very interesting entry region.
Even so, it is still early to confirm a reversal of the macro trend.
👉 The price of Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average.
In the second chart, it can be seen that, in Bitcoin's history, this average has acted as an important support during the bear cycles of 2015, 2018, and during the pandemic drop.
On the other hand, in 2022, this level failed to hold the price.
The question now is: will the average hold again this time, or will we lose this support?
In the second chart, it can be seen that, in Bitcoin's history, this average has acted as an important support during the bear cycles of 2015, 2018, and during the pandemic drop.
On the other hand, in 2022, this level failed to hold the price.
The question now is: will the average hold again this time, or will we lose this support?
👉 The price of Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average.
In the second chart, it can be seen that, in Bitcoin's history, this average has acted as an important support during the bear cycles of 2015, 2018, and during the pandemic drop.
On the other hand, in 2022, this level failed to hold the price.
The question now is: will the average hold again this time, or will we lose this support?
In the second chart, it can be seen that, in Bitcoin's history, this average has acted as an important support during the bear cycles of 2015, 2018, and during the pandemic drop.
On the other hand, in 2022, this level failed to hold the price.
The question now is: will the average hold again this time, or will we lose this support?
👉 Crypto market sentiment very close to 10, extreme fear.
There have been few times this has happened.
Usually, purchases in moments like this become good buys.
There have been few times this has happened.
Usually, purchases in moments like this become good buys.
👉 Bitcoin reached close to 60k dollars today.
As I highlighted in this analysis, we are already in my view at a good point to establish buying positions.
As I highlighted in this analysis, we are already in my view at a good point to establish buying positions.
👉 —❗️🇮🇷 ALL ARMED FORCES OF IRAN ON HIGH ALERT
Iran has placed all branches of its Armed Forces on maximum readiness, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Iran has placed all branches of its Armed Forces on maximum readiness, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
👉 —❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States have been CANCELLED.
According to Axios, the talks collapsed after the U.S. refused Iran's demand to limit the negotiations solely to the nuclear issue.
📌 Source: Axios
The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States have been CANCELLED.
According to Axios, the talks collapsed after the U.S. refused Iran's demand to limit the negotiations solely to the nuclear issue.
📌 Source: Axios
👉 Trump signs bill that ends the government shutdown in the U.S. (CNBC).
👉 MONTHLY Chart of Bitcoin.
I believe this will be the movement of the coming months.
Bitcoin will test the peak of the last cycle as support, and I believe this region will be a great point to start buying, averaging the price over the months.
I believe this will be the movement of the coming months.
Bitcoin will test the peak of the last cycle as support, and I believe this region will be a great point to start buying, averaging the price over the months.
👉 Donald Trump announces trade agreement between the USA and India.
With the agreement, the president of the USA declared that he will reduce the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18% against the Asian country.
With the agreement, the president of the USA declared that he will reduce the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18% against the Asian country.
👉 With the negative closing of January, Bitcoin now registers four consecutive months of decline — something that did not happen even during the last bear market.
The most recent case of a longer sequence was in 2018, when the asset accumulated six consecutive months of decline, between August 2018 and January 2019.
The most recent case of a longer sequence was in 2018, when the asset accumulated six consecutive months of decline, between August 2018 and January 2019.
👉 The crypto market collapsed on Saturday, precisely one of the days that usually show lower volatility.
The movement is driven by rumors of a possible attack by the United States on Iran.
The movement is driven by rumors of a possible attack by the United States on Iran.
👉 It is now official.
Trump appointed Kevin Warsh to be the next president of the Fed.
Trump appointed Kevin Warsh to be the next president of the Fed.
👉 Gold fell 10% and silver 30% today.
This is one of the largest drops in 24 hours for these assets.
This is one of the largest drops in 24 hours for these assets.
👉 US$ 10 trillion has been lost in gold and silver in 24 hours. This is the largest liquidation event in human history.
👉 Geopolitical Tension.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, signed a decree declaring a "national emergency," citing the unusual and extraordinary threat that Cuba poses to the security of his country and the rest of the region.
He also announced that he will impose tariffs on countries that sell or deliver oil to Cuba.
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, signed a decree declaring a "national emergency," citing the unusual and extraordinary threat that Cuba poses to the security of his country and the rest of the region.
He also announced that he will impose tariffs on countries that sell or deliver oil to Cuba.
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