LumiHuang

The current market is very similar to the recovery period after the burst of the internet bubble in 2000. For long-term thinkers, this is a huge opportunity.💎🙌
#bitcoin #BTC #Investmen #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin has dropped 36% in market value from its highest point to its lowest point over the past 40 days, with the recent low approaching $80,000. What will the future trend be? Has Bitcoin entered a bear market? This can be analyzed through 4 indicators:
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Trend Line
Using weekly EMA lines (including EMA20, EMA60, EMA120, EMA150, and MA200) to determine trends and support/resistance levels. Objectively, the current technical trend of Bitcoin is not very optimistic, as the weekly close is below the 60-week EMA line, breaking the convention since the upward trend began in 2023. However, for long-term investors, EMA lines are very useful auxiliary tools for planning more reasonable buying strategies. If Bitcoin does not continue to drop below EMA120, it may currently be a good buying opportunity.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): This indicator measures the strength of the asset's upward or downward movement. An RSI below 30 is considered oversold, while above 70 is considered overbought. Historically, when Bitcoin's daily RSI enters the oversold zone (below 30), it is likely to experience a rebound in the following weeks. In recent days, the RSI has entered the oversold zone.
3. Fear and Greed Index: Currently, the cryptocurrency market's Fear and Greed Index is 13, indicating extreme fear. The current level of panic is approaching the major bear market of 2022. If the index continues to plummet and even falls below 10, the lowest price point for Bitcoin in this cycle may emerge.
4. The impact of macro events on price trends: The recent drop in Bitcoin's price is closely related to the U.S. government shutdown and the expansion of the TGA account balance to about $1 trillion, which has led to decreased market liquidity. If the U.S. government reopens, the TGA account will slowly release liquidity into the market. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December as expected, it will also bring liquidity. The return of macro liquidity in the future may facilitate Bitcoin to successfully bottom out around $80,000 and enter an upward reversal.
Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are seen as the next technological revolution following the internet, alongside AI general artificial intelligence. The current state of the industry is very similar to the recovery phase after the 2000 internet bubble burst, holding enormous long-term potential.

Has the cryptocurrency market bottomed out? Here is the answer from the Coinbase institutional report.
After this wave of "deleveraging" and large-scale cleansing, the next script may be like this.

Don't let fear wash you out, the essence of in-depth research reports is summarized in these few images 👇
#BTC #Investment #RWA #Arbitrum

From the Coinbase research report: Monthly Outlook: Market Recalibration - Coinbase Research Market Outlook

This is deepseek's analysis of the future trend of Bitcoin, which can be compared with previous posts. The previous posts include analyses and answers provided by Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT.

What is the future trend of Bitcoin?

Asking the same question to grok, gemini, and chatgpt will yield different answers, and it feels like grok's responses are based on more information. The answers from gemini are also good, but in comparison, chatgpt's responses contain less information than the previous ones.

Recently, I saw reports that deepseek performed the best in trading competitions among various large models. From the answers given by several large models, one can indeed see this distinction.

From the perspective of answers, several large models analyze from short-term, medium-term, and long-term views, as well as macro perspectives, market sentiment, institutional viewpoints, etc., but only deepseek provided trading suggestions, while the other few did not, which is quite interesting.

Overall, regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, the short-term market sentiment shows fear, indicating a strong sell signal, and the price may further decline, potentially not recovering until 2026, or possibly longer. The medium to long-term performance will also be influenced by multiple factors and should be analyzed based on the macro environment.

Morpho protocol, as a new generation of decentralized lending infrastructure, @Morpho Labs 🦋 team has created Morpho, which not only inherits the high liquidity of traditional pools like Aave and Compound but also pushes capital efficiency to the extreme through revolutionary P2P matching mechanisms and isolated market designs.

What is the biggest pain point of traditional lending protocols?
Low capital utilization! A large amount of deposits are idle, leading to diluted yields for lenders, while borrowers have to bear high interest rates.

Morpho perfectly solves this problem: when supply and demand match, direct peer-to-peer lending occurs, allowing both parties to enjoy real interest rates far above the average level of the pool; when they do not match, it automatically falls back to the underlying mature pool, ensuring liquidity never runs dry. What's even better is that Morpho Blue supports permissionless market creation—anyone can simply specify the loan asset, collateral, LLTV, oracle, and IRM to deploy a dedicated lending pool with one click, completely isolating risk and allowing for ultra-high collateral ratios (up to 98.5%).

$MORPHO as a governance token not only allows participation in DAO decision-making but also enjoys future fee sharing of the protocol. As institutional players (like Coinbase, Crypto.com) gradually integrate into the Morpho infrastructure, on-chain lending is about to usher in a truly efficient era. I have already transferred some stablecoins into Morpho Vaults to optimize yields and strongly encourage everyone to study it.

The future of DeFi belongs to efficient, flexible, and composable protocols, and Morpho is that leader.
#Morpho $MORPHO

To those who want to speak out, how many of you can actually understand what you are writing? And how many do you think can understand what you are writing?

I have seen many similar texts from different accounts already......

Speaking plainly is really a high demand, whether in the academic circle when writing papers, or in the cryptocurrency circle as well~

They all say don't buy what you don't understand
But there are some things I think I understand, but actually don't......
And then I bought it......

The most terrifying thing is that you don't know what you don't know

💻Lumi Study Notes: What is AMM? How did I first understand how AMM quotes me?

AMM is the Automated Market Maker mechanism, one of the most fundamental and important concepts in DeFi (Decentralized Finance).

✅ One-sentence explanation of AMM
It does not require traditional "buyers versus sellers," but automatically quotes you through an algorithmic formula, allowing you to buy and sell tokens at any time.

🧩 What problem does AMM solve?
In centralized exchanges (like Binance), prices are determined by the buyers' orders + sellers' orders.
But decentralized exchanges (like Uniswap) have no order books and no market makers, so what do we do? 👉 AMM uses mathematical formulas to automatically determine prices.

🌊 What is a Liquidity Pool?
AMM does not rely on buyers and sellers to match trades but on liquidity pools (LP).
LP is like a large bucket containing two types of tokens. Others trade using the tokens in this large bucket.
Who provides liquidity? 👉 Ordinary users can deposit two tokens in proportion to become LP.
They will earn: trading fees, and sometimes platform incentive tokens.

📌 Advantages of AMM
24-hour automatic quoting, trading can happen even without orders
Convenient and simple, anyone can be an LP
Completely decentralized, no need to rely on exchanges for matching

⚠️ Risks of AMM (must-read for beginners)
⚠️1. Impermanent Loss
If the prices of the two tokens in the pool change too much, it can lead to losses for LP.
This is the most critical risk of AMM.
⚠️2. Large trades can incur slippage
Due to the algorithm of x × y = k,
the more you buy, the higher the price.
Large trades will make you pay increasingly higher prices.

💻Lumi Study Notes: I finally understand what market makers do~

⭐Market makers are:
The group of people who make it possible to buy and sell in the market at any time
They earn money from the bid-ask spread + fees + incentives
In CEX, they are professional teams, while in DEX, they are composed of automated algorithms + regular users forming a liquidity pool.
Their existence makes the market smoother, with smaller fluctuations and more stable prices.

🧩 Why do we need market makers?

Imagine you are buying apples in the market:
You want to buy, but no one wants to sell → You can’t buy
You want to sell, but no one is buying → You can’t sell
It’s the same in exchanges:
Trading requires a “counterparty (the person on the other side).”
The role of market makers is——

👉 No matter when you come, they are willing to trade with you.
So liquidity is “created” by them, which is called “making a market.”

🔥 How do market makers make money?
① Bid-Ask Spread

For example:
They place a buy order at 99
At the same time, they place a sell order at 101
When others trade with them, they earn the 2 in between.

② Exchange subsidies/commission rebates
Many exchanges will provide additional rewards to market makers because they provide liquidity.

③ Helping projects maintain price stability
Some token projects will seek professional market-making teams,
To keep the price from fluctuating too wildly.

🏦 Market makers in centralized exchanges (CEX)
For example: Binance, OKX, Bybit
Market makers are usually:
Professional trading firms (Jump, Wintermute), high-frequency trading teams, collaborative institutions of project parties.
They use algorithms to place many buy and sell orders on the exchange, keeping the market smooth.

🧮 Market makers in decentralized exchanges (DEX)
In DEXs like Uniswap / PancakeSwap, no one places orders,
Market makers become:
👉 Liquidity Providers (LP)
AMM (Automated Market Maker) mechanism ⇒ Mathematical formulas help you automatically make a market.
Regular users can also deposit coins to earn fees.

I just started paying attention to the Binance Alpha activity today. How can I earn money by brushing points? How can I reduce slippage? Lumi's study notes are here!

💰Should I brush Alpha from the exchange or from the wallet?
It is recommended to brush Alpha within the exchange, and be sure to use limit orders to brush, so that slippage can be minimized, and the fees are very transparent.

💰Where does slippage mainly come from?
Clip fees: intercepted by miner nodes.
Transaction fees: Binance platform needs to charge fees, clearly priced.
Slippage: The market capacity is too small, and the buying volume is large, resulting in the transaction price being higher than the quoted buying price.
GAS fees: Charged by miners; every transaction incurs this fee, similar to a minimum consumption fee.~

💰How much should I brush daily?
Binance has a chart that shows different scores corresponding to different trading volumes, and scores can be maintained for 15 days. The accumulated score equals asset score + trading score. If you claim an airdrop and it expires, there will be a deduction in points.

💰What currency and chain should I choose to brush points more appropriately?
BSC Chain (Binance Smart Chain): Trading Alpha tokens on the BSC chain usually has double point bonuses, and the on-chain Gas fees are relatively low.
High liquidity tokens: Choose Alpha tokens with high liquidity and relatively stable prices, such as $ZKJ and $B2, for trading.

#ALPHA

Today's most exciting news should be the release of Gemini 3 🎉 Google is back! Gemini 3 completely crushes GPT-5, ushering in the era of 'digital colleagues' 😀

🔥 Key Points: Data crushes, OpenAI pales in comparison

⭐ Gemini 3 achieves absolute dominance over GPT-5.1 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 in several 'hellish' benchmarks:
⭐ Human Ultimate Challenge (HLE): Gemini 3 scores 45.8% vs Claude 13.7%.
Fluid Intelligence (ARC-AGI-2): Secures 31.1% (close to human level), while GPT-5.1 is only 17.6%.
⭐ Math Competition (MathArena): Scores 23.4%, crushing GPT-5.1's 1.0%.
Screen/UI Understanding: Comprehension ability is 20 times that of GPT-5.1.

💻 Revolutionary Innovation: Generative UI

⭐ This is the biggest leap in user experience! AI no longer just spits out text, but dynamically generates interactive interfaces based on your needs.
⭐ Want to learn a language? It directly generates a word card system with algorithms.
⭐ Explaining science? Generates interactive charts of varying depths based on the audience (children vs adults).
⭐ The twilight of front-end: This aesthetic online and smooth interaction-generating capability poses a huge challenge to traditional front-end development.

I discovered the platform Polymarket today, and it is really interesting! It's a platform for predicting what will happen in the future using money and votes. For example, you can predict:

1. Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 next year?
2. Will the US stock market reach a new high next year?
3. Which sports team will win the game?

You bet "Yes" or "No", and after the event ends, if your prediction is correct, you can win money; if your prediction is wrong, you lose the amount you bet. Each answer on the platform has a price, for example, $0.65 ≈ the market believes the probability of occurrence is 65%.

Polymarket is built on blockchains like Ethereum or Polygon, without a centralized authority controlling it, and every transaction is publicly and transparently recorded on the chain. Participants bet using USDC (stablecoin), and those who are correct can earn profits.

Here, you can see everyone's judgments about future events, which is very interesting. You can quickly understand the market's "psychological expectations" regarding news, data, and events. Learning about probabilities and market sentiment is more intuitive than just reading the news. I feel like this could become a place for investment risk hedging, hahaha. 😍😍😍

Today I saw Bitcoin drop below 90,000 USD, and all the gains made this year are gone. The current price is lower than the highest of 126,000 USD in October, having dropped nearly 30%. This afternoon in Asia, its price fell another 2%, leaving it at 89,953 USD.

Recently, the price of BTC has surged, and many institutions and early investors chose to take profits at high levels. Another key reason is the uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the future, leading to instability in market sentiment after a prolonged rise. A combination of factors has resulted in the current wave of sell-offs.

Matthew Dibb, Chief Investment Officer of Astronaut Capital, stated: "Overall, the sentiment in the crypto market is very bleak, and it has been since the leverage washout in October. The next key support level is at 75,000 USD, and if market volatility remains high, Bitcoin may test that level."

Hello everyone! I am LumiHuang, a newcomer to the crypto world~ Let's start by experiencing the atmosphere of the crypto community from the atmosphere group😀 Here I share:

⭐ My observations and thoughts on the market
⭐ The alpha and airdrop opportunities that I think are good
⭐ Records of the pitfalls I've encountered
⭐ What I've learned about crypto knowledge

If you are just entering this industry, I hope my content can help you avoid detours.

Looking forward to growing together!🙌