老鲍的币风港

10.29 Warsh Dodges the Key Issues in His Speech; Bitcoin Bears Are Building Momentum at Month-End

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 399:

Yesterday, overall market action was somewhat subdued, with little volatility despite the release of economic data.

Price continued to move sideways within the upper and lower Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart.

Overall liquidity is not particularly high at the moment. The lack of liquidity has directly prevented Bitcoin’s liquidation levels from being reached.

So, in the short term, bears holding short positions at higher levels should stay put. The right move is not to be shaken out early by short-term fluctuations.

P.S.

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is the logic behind a trade, while entry and exit prices are the least important.

Our daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued interest in and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

October 28: Fed Rate Decision Night — Keep a Close Eye on Warsh’s Remarks

Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 398:

The overall Bitcoin market has been extremely dull lately, moving in a narrow range between 79 and 81 for three whole days.

It’s clear that the market is cautious, since we have both economic data releases and speeches this week.

The 4-hour chart is moving sideways in a narrow Bollinger Band range, so don’t expect much movement in either direction during the day.

Taking profits and staying safe seems to have become the best trading strategy lately.

P.S.:

Long-form content discusses trends; short-form content discusses logic. In the trading market, trading logic is the most valuable thing, while entry and exit points are the least important.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.27 Bitcoin’s rebound is weak; bears at higher levels can stay seated and buckle up

Lao Bao’s Coin Harbor, Episode 397:

Yesterday, we wanted to re-enter around 815, but the market was too weak and didn’t give us the chance.

So, when things remained weak in the evening, we changed our approach—from trying to force an entry at the highs

to jumping straight in when a weak rebound reached a key level. So far, the results have been decent.

One thing to watch during the day is whether the price can quickly recover after breaking below 79.

If it can’t, the odds of another leg down tonight will increase.

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is your trading logic, while entry and exit points are the least important.

Our daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Coin Harbor.

Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 396:

Bitcoin’s overall trend was still somewhat weak last week, though the decline wasn’t particularly large.

The market is also speculating about how Wash’s speech this week might affect price action.

The 76.5K target that hasn’t yet been reached on the K-line chart still looks achievable for now.

After the key resistance above was decisively broken through by the candle body, price action over the next few days may continue moving toward the 70K range.

So manage your risk, wait for a pullback, and if you’re short from higher levels, consider holding on for a bit longer.

P.S.

Long-form content discusses trends; short-form content focuses on logic. In the trading market, trading logic is the most valuable thing, while entry and exit points are the least important.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.23 Bitcoin completed its drop in a single day. Can it continue on Friday?

Episode 396 of Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor:

I only talked about the triangular range yesterday, and then the price went straight down to its target in one go. Honestly, that caught me completely off guard.

Let’s see whether we get a rebound over the weekend and another chance to form a triangular range. If we don’t—or if the price breaks down instead—

then chasing the short will be the only option. I hope it doesn’t come to that; nobody wants to end up looking battered and bruised.

Next week’s rate decision will still hinge on what signals Warsh sends. That guy is even better at talking in circles than Powell.

P.S.

Long pieces discuss trends; short pieces discuss logic. In trading, the most valuable thing is your trading logic, while entry and exit prices are the least important things to dwell on.

My daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

10.22 Bitcoin Bears Must Hold Their Ground: Key Levels in the Triangle Range

Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor, Episode 395:

Prices continue to move sideways at high levels. Every slight dip is immediately followed by a rebound.

This isn’t particularly good news for those of us who have held short positions for a long time.

But the current market is like a frog being slowly boiled: the rise doesn’t feel dramatic, yet prices keep climbing.

Today, we need to watch whether the daily triangle range will act as effective resistance for Bitcoin and push prices down.

P.S.:

Long-form videos discuss trends; short-form videos explain the reasoning. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is your trading rationale, while entry and exit prices are the least important.

The videos published each day are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Lao Bao’s Crypto Harbor.

9.28 The Most Conservative Estimate: When the big cake drops to 805, it rebounds

Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang, Episode 394:

In the past two months, the market has been extremely hard to handle—there have been endless upside breakouts without volume, breaking through the short-squeeze overhead.

So we’ve been getting passively beaten, and the key is that when we do get filled, we also don’t want to run.

Because we’ve lost too much earlier on, it has caused gambling instincts to overpower human nature.

This is very bad. If people in the trading market aren’t calm, they’ll make mistakes.

Making mistakes is giving the other side an opportunity. Let’s all take that as a mutual encouragement.

P.S.:

Talk at length about trends, and briefly about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic; the least valuable is buy/sell levels.

The daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute investment/trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention to and support of Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

7.20 Big-pizza bear power fully revealed—still watching for 618 soon

Old Bao’s Coin Harbor Episode 393:

While the price of Big Pizza gradually rose after dipping to 577 at the beginning of the month,

it has clearly started to be pressured at the resistance line around 64–65,

and the daily-level golden cross is almost being worn out and coming to an end,
while the price remains unable to get a proper bounce.

So what this indicates here is that the big rebound the market is temporarily looking for likely won’t come.
Instead, the chances of breaking below the new low have increased quite a bit.

PS:

Long pieces talk about trends; short pieces talk about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while buy/sell levels are the least worth mentioning.

Everyday videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your long-term attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Harbor.

7.9 The big BTC pancake oscillation is about to end—bears are launching a fierce attack on 618
Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor Episode 392:
After the price of BTC has kept falling and then rebounded, it has been consuming bearish momentum while
also steadily increasing indicators for longs on lower timeframes. However, one point is worth noting:
indicators on the higher timeframe show absolutely no change.
Looking at it this way, the bullish indicators on lower timeframes may just be carrying out a bull trap.
The market is about to break down—be cautious. Being prudent is more reliable than blindly chasing pumps or panic-selling.
P.S.:
Long-form talk covers trends; short-form talk covers logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, and least worth considering are entry/exit price points;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Crypto Harbor;

7.8 The big pancake continues to maintain a choppy trading trend; the price will enter a triangular range
Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port Episode 391:
In recent days, market fluctuations have been getting smaller and smaller. The pattern of falling during the day and rising at night has happened continuously for two days.
Today’s daytime session is again moving downward. Based on the indicators, it seems that after the price has exhausted the bullish momentum of the smaller timeframe, it is once again heading toward a decline.
However, on the higher timeframe, there are signs that the death crosses across various levels are converging, so the bigger directional move is still hard to judge in the short term.
I think a one-way opportunity hasn’t arrived yet. It’s more likely to keep trading in a range. After the pancake loses its high-volatility “luster” attribute,
reduced market liquidity is also one of the reasons it has kept moving sideways.
PS:
In the trading market, long-form talks focus on trends, short-form talks focus on logic. What’s most expensive is trading logic, and what’s least valuable is the buy/sell entry levels;
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port;

7.7 After the large coin insertion pin rebounds again after 618, the market still looks optimistic; ranging consolidation box remains
Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang Episode 390:
Yesterday I said the Monday market might drop to form the intra-week low.
In the daytime, I’d be watching the strength of the 618 support. By nighttime, I got blinded by that earlier drop.
That led me to execute incorrectly and chase a short at 618. The result was a heavy hammer from a seasoned pro—bam!
At the moment, after the price rebounded from 618, it was once again suppressed by the level at 64 and fell again. So it’s already very clear that, in the short term, the market is in a consolidation range.
During the day, I’ll continue to plan to deal with it at the high side around 64, and at 618 I’m looking to run/exit.
P.S.:
Long-form explains trends, short-form explains logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic; the least worth mentioning is buy/sell price levels.
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thanks for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

7.6 Large pancake rises early due to non-farm impact; downside momentum lacking—price may still dip below 618 in the short term
Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port Episode 389:
Last week, our entire trading approach was thrown off by the release of the non-farm data.
This is unavoidable; it’s the kind of result you can’t estimate.
In the past two years, the market on every Monday basically determines the high or low for the week.
And considering that in the short term the price tends to rebound, while at smaller timeframes it tends to pull back, then today it might drop out below the intraday low.
After that, there will be repeated consolidation and upward movement, until the price returns to the 66k resistance level, after which it will start falling again.
PS:
Long-form explanation is about trends; short-form explanation is about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, and the least worth mentioning is buy/sell entry levels.
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support of Old Bao’s Coin Wind Port.

7.1 The big monthly candle line closes down; early in the month there’s still a crash-like行情
Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang Episode 388:
Yesterday’s price first tested the buying strength around 58k. After the rebound, it remains in a weak state.
Moreover, the short-term price range is continuously moving lower, forming a stepped-down pattern.
The monthly candle’s body is a bearish (yin) candle closing below 60k. Our first reaction to that is: the price still has to keep falling.
After the release of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, this view may be confirmed.
PS:
When it comes to trends, a long story; when it comes to logic, a short one. In the trading market, the most valuable thing is trading logic, while buying/selling levels are the least worth mentioning.
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your long-term attention and support of Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

6.30 Big Cake: The long/short battle and key moves are still around 60k—one more “shakeout” needed
Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang Episode 387:
Last night, the drop we expected didn’t happen. Instead, the price went back up to test the sell pressure in the 606–608 zone.
It turns out that once the bulls show up, more sell orders come in to hammer the market down. As a result, even if the price holds steady around 59k in the short term, it isn’t a lasting solution.
At the moment, the only possible way for the price to rebound is for it to first oversell—only overselling would attract more buy orders to enter, and push more sellers to exit.
Otherwise, Big Cake will keep following a sideways-to-downward rhythm, with no hope of a rebound.
PS:
Long stories talk about trends; short stories talk about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while buy/sell levels are the least worth mentioning;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s Coin Fenggang.

6.29 Weekly Chart for Big Pie: Broke the 60K Support, Still Weak Overall—Within the Week We May See 53K
Lao Bao’s Coin Wind Harbor Episode 386:
After several days of consolidation, on the weekend the Big Pie tried to break through the 608 level twice, but was pushed back down.
From Friday to now, the market has provided more than two opportunities for our 60.8K push, and our strategy of reducing positions at 59K continues to shine.
So this is a pleasant weekend: after the weekly chart fell below 60K earlier in the day, the close is set below 60K, and the rebound during the Asian session has once again weakened.
So tonight, we expect further downside.
PS:
Long-form content talks about trends; short-form content talks about logic. In the trading market, the most expensive thing is trading logic, while buy/sell levels are the least worth mentioning.
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thanks for your continued attention and support of Lao Bao’s Coin Wind Harbor.

6.26 Finally Hits the $50K Range: Ample Momentum, Still Paired with the Moving Average Line to Continue Falling
Old Bao’s CoinWind Harbor Episode 385:
After yesterday’s 4H wiped out the long (bullish) trend on Bitcoin, the price formed a “window”
After the sell-off went deep, the reason rebounds occurred twice and the probability is high is that the massive short covering by the bears led to a surge in buy pressure—combined with long positions entering via contracts
One point worth noting: every time the price rebounds upward, while the buy pressure weakens, the selling pressure increases quite a bit as well
Therefore, the bottom this week is not expected to be only as simple as 58k—so after today’s repair and the direction is set, it will continue to fall
PS:
Long-form discusses trends, short-form discusses logic—in the trading market, what’s most expensive is trading logic, while what’s least worth mentioning are the buy/sell levels;
The daily video is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao’s CoinWind Harbor.

6.25 Bitcoin breaks 6, triggering a mass exodus of shorts and a price rebound that leads to further decline
Old Bao's Crypto Haven Episode 384:
This week, since Monday, we've been emphasizing
That Monday was likely to hit the weekly high before the price started a one-way bearish trend.
Last night's drop was so deep that it forced a lot of high-position shorts to exit, resulting in a surge in buying pressure and a price rebound.
After the price rebound, some of the shorts chasing below 6 were liquidated, allowing the price to continue rising and boosting bullish confidence.
Currently, this rebound may appear strong in the short term, but in the larger cycle, it remains in a bearish position.
Therefore, I believe the decline isn't over; there's still room for shorts to keep harvesting.
PS:
Long discussions on trends, short discussions on logic; in the trading market, the most valuable is trading logic, and the least significant is entry and exit points;
Daily videos are for reference only and do not constitute trading advice. Thank you for your continued attention and support for Old Bao's Crypto Haven.