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BTC/ETH ETF outflows on the same day, yet SOL is stronger: why fund flows and prices are not moving in sync
On September 16, the U.S. spot ETF daily flow report showed a highly asymmetric set of figures: $BTC had net outflows of $295.9 million, $ETH had net outflows of $224.1 million, and $SOL had net inflows of $0.84 million. Combined, the first two saw total net outflows of $520 million. In the price window as of 9/17 ET, Coinbase data shows BTC up 1.18%, ETH up 1.80%, and SOL up 4.94%. In the prior UTC day, the SOL/BTC ratio rose again from 0.00128096 to 0.00129190, up about 0.85%, while ETH/BTC was essentially flat. The easiest story to write is: “capital rotated from BTC and ETH to SOL.” But that’s precisely where caution is needed. ETF daily flows, secondary-market prices, and cross-coin ratios use different cutoff times, and ETF orders may also lag behind the actual risk decisions. There is relative strength here, but there isn’t yet a single, uniquely identifiable rotation causality.
After the FOMC, why is the first candlestick the easiest to mislead?
After the announcement was released, $BTC dipped from about $75,681 before the event to $75,337 (-0.45%), but by 14:05 ET it had already returned to $76,031, and by 16:00 ET it further rose to $76,198 (+0.68% vs. before the event). $ETH also showed a directional structure of falling first and then regaining.
If you only take the first move, you’d get “FOMC is bearish for crypto.” But if you only look at the rebound five minutes later, it turns into “the market welcomes the FOMC.” Both takes are too simplistic.
At the very moment major news is released, the order book thins out. Stop losses, algorithmic trading, and leveraged liquidations can all happen at the same time. The first candlestick often reflects position unwinding first—it doesn’t necessarily mean the market has fully digested the statement, the rate outlook, and the subsequent path.
But a V-shaped rebound doesn’t automatically mean policy is certainly dovish either. It could come from short covering, a surprise versus expectations, changes in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, or price corrections after liquidity returns.
Event trading should compare three points instead: the pre-news baseline, the post-news extreme, and the stable level one to two hours later. The first candlestick tells you the market was hit; the subsequent price action tells you whether the shock was absorbed.
Next, watch whether $BTC and $ETH can continue to hold levels from before the event, whether open interest in perpetuals declines, and whether other major exchanges can reproduce a similar path.
This article is for event research and risk breakdown only and does not constitute investment advice. #比特币 #以太坊 #fomc