KlineCode

In the short term, what’s truly weighing on the market is not just a dollar rebound, but the dollar and interest rates rising together. The U.S. dollar index is back near 99.08, and the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.965%. With cash and bonds offering better returns, other assets are more likely to be sold off.
This change is different from yesterday’s conditions of “a weaker dollar, with gold and silver still supported.” Prices at the U.S. production end rose 5.4% year over year in August, and oil prices have also climbed above $100, increasing expectations for further rate hikes. In other words, what the market is worried about has shifted from pressure in the bond market to inflation forcing interest rates to keep rising.
Put it on the market and watch: Bitcoin could return to about $77,900; the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by about 0.6%. Gold dropped 1.94%, and silver fell 5.48%. Silver is weaker because, besides worrying about high interest rates, it also fears cooling industrial demand. If tonight’s inflation data stays elevated, the dollar and yields may continue to weigh on risk assets; if the data clearly cools, this view needs to be reassessed.$BTC #美元 #美债 #gold

This time, the U.S. Treasury raised the limit on long-term Treasury repo operations to $6 billion. The market didn’t treat it as genuine easing; instead, it continued to sell long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield climbed to about 4.84%, suggesting that people are more concerned with how much debt the U.S. will issue and who will ultimately absorb it in the future, rather than how many old bonds can be bought in a single repo operation.\n\nRepos are more like moving an old car to a new parking spot: they can improve transactions, but they don’t reduce the number of cars on the road. The U.S. issues more than $2 trillion of debt every year. Putting $600 million into this pool is unlikely to change the pressure from supply. If the fiscal deficit, inflation, and oil prices continue to rise, long-end yields may still put pressure on the market.\n\nIn market terms, yields moving higher first weigh on high-valuation stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell overnight by about 0.48% and 0.64%, respectively. BTC is around $78,100, down slightly but still volatile. What really matters is whether the dollar and yields weaken together. The U.S. Dollar Index is about 98.80. Gold closed at roughly $4,402, and silver at about $67.28. Safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar provide temporary support to precious metals, but silver is still influenced by industrial demand.\n\nNext, it’s more suitable to keep an eye on long-end yields, subsequent actual repo transaction activity, and inflation data. If yields keep rising, the stabilizing effect of repos hasn’t yet been recognized by the market. If rates fall and the dollar weakens, risk assets may get a clearer window to breathe.\n\n$BTC

This round of Japanese yen strength is causing ripples beyond the FX market. In the past, some people borrowed low-interest yen, exchanged it for US dollars, and used those dollars to buy U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and other high-yield assets—essentially profiting from higher returns using cheap loans. As long as the yen didn’t appreciate, the deal was relatively stable. Now that the yen is strengthening and expectations for Japan to raise interest rates are increasing, both borrowing costs and repayment costs have risen together, forcing some funds to sell assets and buy back yen.
As of the morning of September 9, the USD/JPY exchange rate is around 153.7, having briefly traded as low as 152.9 during the day. Since September began, the yen has appreciated by about 4%. This suggests that the unwinding of carry trades has already started, but it’s still some way from spiraling out of control. The real thing to watch is whether the yen’s rise continues, and whether the declines in the stock market and high-volatility assets are being magnified at the same time.

The U.S. Treasury market can’t withstand further rate hikes anymore. No matter what the inflation data looks like, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates directly is very small. If they said they would reduce the balance sheet, you can treat it as talk for now—when it really comes down to it, it’s more likely to go the other way.
The FIMA tool sounds sophisticated, but it’s basically just a temporary mechanism for central banks in different countries to borrow U.S. dollars from each other. Its scale is too small; it’s only a drop in the bucket for the whole market and can’t solve the big problems.
The problem is that inflation is already moving in a malignant direction. Once prices can’t be kept under control, it becomes very difficult to clean things up later. How to choose between issuing national rescue bonds and suppressing inflation—there will likely be tug-of-war again and again. Ultimately, where things go will depend on the actual data.

Based on the information available at present, the probability of a Vosh rate hike is already very low.
First, the focus of monetary policy may shift to the yen exchange rate, aiming to tighten liquidity by raising the yen;
Second, from the perspective of U.S. Treasuries, the rate-hike path faces significant constraints, leaving limited room for implementation.
Conclusion: In the short term, watch closely the cooling of rate-hike expectations and the yen’s trend, but do not place heavy bets based on this.