疯狂的Jerrick

The trading logic shared here is still being realized.
However, when it came to the short on this target during the bull market, I really didn’t hold on to it.
I didn’t figure out the rationale for holding it clearly enough,
so it makes sense that I didn’t hold on.

Shorting Binance’s weakest target—this one—I only opened it later.
Now it looks like this trading logic is still fairly sound.
Also,
what I’m thinking is that if Binance later lists more such Chinese coins like this,
then holding would allow me to scale up the position a bit and short the weakest of those targets.
$牛来

I found that if I’m going to play the on-chain primary market now, I still have to use Binance’s wallet. Today I saw Sun Ge’s little post titled “A Tribute to Teacher Hu Xijin,” so I checked Fomo and OKX right away—but there were no corresponding MEMEs. Then I immediately switched to the Binance wallet and found that three had already been released. So I bought some right away. I didn’t buy much, but the entry prices were in pretty good positions.
#致敬胡锡进老师

Niu Lai is actually my first publicly disclosed long position meme that I held.
Also, because I hadn’t had any experience in this area before.
So it’s only in the last few months that I started doing event-driven and news-driven trading.
That’s why I didn’t put on a heavy position.
I just used a small position to verify my trading logic.
The logic was fairly solid, and I cashed it out step by step.
So if there are similar opportunities later,
then I can appropriately increase the position size a bit.
Everything is a gradual, step-by-step process.
It’s impossible to catch every opportunity,
and it’s also impossible for every event and every logic to move in the direction I judge.

Last night, Niu Lai launched on Binance in the Chinese perpetual contracts board,
which instantly broke the previous three-way standoff.
I think once Niu Lai is listed and it goes up,
that would be a negative for the other three,
because the capital in the Chinese segment is probably somewhat limited.
And for the other three that I saw, they indeed dropped.
But what I’m trading is the hardest one—the lobster.
That might also be a mistake.
Why short the hardest underlying?
This morning I looked again,
all three were down.
The most disappointing Binance Life account lately was down the most.
And the lobster was still down the least.
So I guess I’m still too inexperienced—too green.
I still need to hone it.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
$牛来

This message is a bearish thing for my post!!

Keep tracking it.
Actually, I don’t really know what to post today either.
I just casually scroll through some gossip posts.
Then I suddenly saw “Calm” say that the bull market is coming for Niu Lai.
So I went to check my Niu Lai.
It’s already up 1.5x.
The bull is indeed here.
Even though I didn’t buy much,
it still let me see the charm of holding on.
$牛来

Some notable and somewhat special points about yesterday’s ETF flows are worth paying attention to:
1. BTC has finally started showing net outflows. From yesterday to now it has recorded net outflows of 35.3M. The day before that it was a net inflow of 232M. Before this, it had consistently shown net inflows for eight straight trading days. Personally, I think there may be a small pullback recently, but I won’t short—instead I’ll wait until the pullback stabilizes and then look for a spot to go long.
2. ETH’s ETF flows have had no net outflows for 12 consecutive days. Among those, only one day had absolutely no activity; the other 13 days showed net inflows. The momentum is still strong. The teachers who are shorting are probably getting nervous. Personally, I won’t short either—I’ll only look for long opportunities.
3. SOL’s ETF flows have also been net inflows for eight consecutive days. Worth noting: yesterday’s ETF net inflow hit a near-one-month high (56M, and it may even be a high over the past half year; last week’s strongest moment was only 33M). This is also an important reason why SOL surged 12% yesterday. From the candlestick chart right now, there are still no signs of stopping or stalling at the highs. It really is something to compare with ETH.
4. HYPE’s ETF flows have also been “dropping big moves” for the past few days. Yesterday it hit a new high in nearly a month (24M—possibly also a new high in the past half year). Over the last three days, the net inflows were 7.5M, 14.7M, and 24.4M, respectively. It feels like the volume is growing by multiples, but the price increment is shrinking. I think a large part of the reason is the unlocking news on the 29th, which kept the price from rising. Also, there is another unlocking on September 6th—this was mentioned in earlier posts. Therefore, if HYPE still can’t make a new high today, then over the weekend there should be a decent pullback.
In terms of my own trading, I recently also opened a long position with a small size. The key is to wait until after the 29th’s unlock, and then look for opportunities to continue going long. Or maybe the best long opportunity is after September 6th; this will depend on how deep the pullback is after the 29th—if it’s deep enough, you can go long; if not, then you’ll need to look at what happens after the 6th.
#比特币升破8万美元创三月新高

I didn’t expect everyone to love eating gossip—I guess I’ll have some too.

10x target is still being monitored.
$牛来
#比特币守于7.94万美元

After the earnings report beats expectations, as a leader, it will have the effect of a leader.
When most of the followers have already been rising well, the leader will push even further up.
If Nvidia sets a new all-time high again this time,
it looks like the upstream and downstream industry chain will be hyped again afterward.
Those teachers holding storage short positions,
still need to consider planning a stop-loss level for themselves.

To all the teachers who always keep thinking about shorting, please be a bit more cautious.
As mentioned in the previous post, in this big upturn,
the first thing to get activated is ETF capital.
The nature of ETF capital is: the more it rises, the more it buys;
the more it falls, the more it sells.
And over the past few days, BTC and ETH have both been very strong.
By “strong,” I mean I haven’t seen any obvious negative feedback.
This is mainly thanks to last week’s sustained streak of long bullish candles,
and this week, on every working day, ETF capital still showed strong buying power.

This week, on both Day 1 and Day 2, the net inflow was over 300M every day.
This portion of capital effectively absorbed those who wanted to short.

In this round, the stronger ones are ETH, SOL, and HYPE.
Yesterday’s ETF capital for Hype (14.7M) was twice that of the day before.
And Hype yesterday also set a new all-time high.
Under market conditions where both price and volume are rising,
the potential pullback on the unlock around the 29th may not be too large.

SOL and ETH’s ETF net inflows over the last several working days have also been very strong,
and the momentum has been clearly reflected in their candlestick patterns.
When BTC is a little weak,
ETH, SOL, and HYPE can still hold steady at high levels.
Overall, the candlestick structure shows higher highs and higher lows continuously.
I believe this story hasn’t finished yet.
So don’t short, don’t short.
#SEC向白宫提交加密托管规则提案

Talk about the Hype coin’s unlock events.
After all, it has made a new all-time high. Recently I’ve spent a lot of time studying the Hype coin, and I found that although I previously went heavily long on this coin, my understanding of it wasn’t comprehensive enough.
Although in the long run this asset is still bullish (ETF, buybacks, and burns),
in the short term, it is about to face a relatively large unlock.
There are 14.17 million tokens unlocking on August 29 and 9.92 million on September 6.
What’s interesting is that previously every month had unlock amounts like this,
but the actual selling pressure on Hype has been quite small.
That’s why I say it’s very small—mainly because even with expectations of monthly unlocks, the price of Hype is still continuously making new highs.
That’s enough to show how strong and well-supported Hype’s price is.
However, I still noticed a few things:
1. For the monthly unlock event on the 29th, generally (most of the time) there will be a streak of declines in the few days before and after the 29th. If it hasn’t dropped before the 29th, then it will most likely drop after the 29th. If declines have been dominant before the 29th, then after the 29th there may be a slight pullback followed by an upswing.
2. For the monthly unlock event on the 6th, if the 6th is a relatively high point, then basically after the 6th it will be dominated by declines.

As for personal execution:
Before the 29th, since Hype has already risen a lot along with BTC and is still pushing to new highs, ETF capital is also continuously net flowing in, and the daily buyback amount is increasing—so the difficulty of shorting is a bit high. Still, personally I prefer to look for opportunities between the 27th and 30th. If one day prints a big bearish candle, then I would open a short position. If there isn’t—only small bearish candles—then I wouldn’t do anything.
For the 6th unlock, most likely I’ll wait for a decent shorting entry point; personally I prefer to look for a suitable short after the 6th. Also, if you want to go long, you should at least wait until after the 6th to find a good opportunity and level to go long.

#美比特币ETF连续六日净流入

There is actually a bit of a seesaw effect between BTC and storage.
Tonight, as BTC fell, storage rebounded slightly;
then once storage began to decline, BTC started to stabilize again.
So in terms of my personal trading, I’m currently shorting storage and going long on the big cake (BTC).

$SNDK

Don’t short, don’t short!

1. If last week’s BTC rise was driven by liquidations and ETF inflows, then this coming week may see even more positive catalysts. For example, MicroStrategy—switching from selling to buying?
2. Yesterday (Monday), ETF net inflows did not stop, pushing BTC to the 80,000 level. Other major coins have also been intermittently hitting new highs, without any signs of fading. However, based on the ETF net inflow figures, there has indeed been some reduction. Still, overall, it’s not something to be bearish about.
3. Some people may think BTC has reached a key resistance level, but I believe that after putting together such a big run of bullish candles in the previous week, the current BTC trend is still very healthy. The earlier minor highs (around 82,800) are very likely to be broken. In a bull market, resistance is there for the market makers to punch through.
4. A lot of people are shorting at this level—it’s understandable. But even this 4-hour chart doesn’t show any bearish trend forming. I’d rather stay in cash, or look for a good setup to go long. Shorting is the worst risk-to-reward, and it’s also going against the larger trend.
5. Yesterday the S&P 500 fell, and many large tech stocks fell too. This is easy to understand as hot money rotating—given the overall market picture right now, it’s clear capital has shifted from treasuries/storage to gold and crypto. Previously: stocks down, gold down, crypto down. Now: stocks down, gold steady, crypto steady. If it’s that steady, there’s no reason to short.

Personal trading: Right now, besides holding some gold and silver, I’ve already taken profits and fully cleared the positions in all other account coin types. The only exception is that I’m challenging this account’s new long order on Hype today, because I think since last night BTC broke the recent high and ETH is also pushing higher, and this morning SOL also had a move up—although it hasn’t touched the previous high yet, the overall environment is still bullish. As long as storage isn’t in a downtrend and there’s no big IPO sucking in liquidity, I remain bullish on crypto. In other words, all coins will rotate upward.
$BTC
#BTC触及80000美元

The funds really have been switched.
Storage is already beyond help.
The next flow of funds will be in the world of gold and crypto.

Have you noticed that both BTC and gold are holding up very well today?

Today, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and Korean stock tech stocks are all in a state of sharp declines,
but crypto and the gold concept are extremely steady—
there’s not a single sign of weakness.
What I’m seeing now is that ETH, LTC, and BTC are all starting up and charging for the next height,
and gold has also broken above its recent highs again.

This afternoon, I saw all tech stocks falling. I thought that when the U.S. stock market opened tonight, crypto and gold might also get dragged down.
So I basically already cleared out positions, including Hype that I’m interested in.
But later tonight, seeing how strong LTC and ETH are,
I bought some back in my live trading account.
I think this is an important signal of a capital rotation:
1. Liquidity funds have switched from big-tech markets like U.S. stocks and Korean stocks into the crypto and gold markets, and judging by the ETF fund flows, there’s no sign of a retreat.
2. It’s not just today—over the first half of the past two weeks, crypto assets have shown resilience: they don’t fall as much as the market does, and then they either trade sideways or go up.

In terms of my personal trading:
1. Today I opened two counter-trend positions: short orders on XRP, ETH, and BCH. At the time, I thought the U.S. stock market might follow down tonight, so I laid the groundwork early by shorting a few relatively weaker targets. But later, the scenario didn’t play out in the direction I expected, so I cut the losses early.
2. Later on, when I saw ETH and LTC were relatively strong, it completely wiped out my thinking that “they would follow down with the U.S. market.” Then I opened long positions on ETH and LTC. Right now, LTC is still in a losing state.

In summary: for the big bullish structure, it’s best to avoid opening counter-trend shorts. If you do open one, use a small position size, low leverage, and a reasonable stop-loss. Ask yourself for the logic behind keeping the trade open—not just do it because things are dropping. Going forward, the main focus should still be to go long.