疯狂的Jerrick

After I posted this morning,
I basically filled up my positions.
Today's price action has been pretty choppy,
but it's still largely in line with our analysis.
It's still following the broader trend,
with a downward chop.
$BTC
The bigger picture will depend on Sunday night and Monday.

$BTC
From my perspective, BTC has broken down!

Maybe it's because I posted yesterday about a major shakeout in the crypto market being just around the corner, so I'm especially wary of BTC's drop! But in any case, a lot of people haven't been able to figure out why BTC has been trading sideways at this level for so long.
So many have chosen to wait.
I think waiting is definitely the best choice.

When you can't make sense of the market, just wait.
Wait for a pullback,
wait for the market to choose a direction,
wait for a setup and pattern you recognize,
wait until all the coins start showing the same pattern.

At around 6:50 this morning, I woke up and picked up my phone.
I saw BTC had fallen below 81115,
and my conditional order at 80781 had been filled.
I also checked my ETH conditional order, and that had been filled too.
Both were trend-following short positions.

It's the weekend,
so I'm not sure what liquidity will be like.
Weekends are usually pretty sluggish,
and narrow-range trading is the norm.
There aren't any big institutions at work either,
so I guess we'll have to wait until Monday for a more decisive move down.

The short positions I'm holding have now gone from profit to loss.
Looks like quite a few people are buying the dip here.
But in my view,
the previous period of choppy trading has already worn down the bulls' momentum too much,
so the odds of a V-shaped recovery from here are very low.

The overall trend is still down.
Let's make the most of every step along the way.

If you like this, feel free to leave a like and comment. I share my own trading insights every day!
The challenge to turn 500U into 1M is still on!
#黄金自7月以来首次跌破4000美元

Why do I take a 200U loss so seriously?

First of all, thanks to this friend for showing interest!
This is a challenge account (a 500U challenge to reach $1M), and it’s my public Binance account. Anyone can view it, and the full position history is available to browse. So it’s basically a live trading account. I don’t have to post on other platforms every day about what trades I opened or how much I made.
I’ve set some milestones for myself (500U到1M，各里程碑的计划！), and when I reach one, I’ll make a dedicated post about it on my X account.
For many people in crypto, 300U really isn’t much, but for me, it’s already a lot.
I’ve always believed that:
1) If I don’t value small amounts of money, I won’t be able to make big money either.
2) If my trading skills aren’t up to scratch, starting out by putting a lot of money into trading is a huge mistake.
3) It’s been a little over two months since I started this 500U challenge. There have been big losses and big wins along the way, but the equity curve hasn’t reached consistent profitability yet. That means my trading skills still aren’t good enough and need more work.
4) Losses and drawdowns themselves aren’t important. What matters most is whether I can learn something from each loss and drawdown, and whether I’m improving. That’s what I care about.
5) I’ve also been exploring different approaches during this time. A lot of people say you need to find a trading system that suits your personality. I only formally started two months ago, so that’s still a very short time. This system needs a lot more time and refinement.
6) I’ve always treasured the chance to learn from every excellent trader I’ve come across (Ao Ying, Tony, Fei Zhai, Wu Fan, and other teachers). I hope to learn from them and adapt what I learn to suit myself. Every trader has their own individual path to walk, one that reflects their unique style.
7) I’m actually not under too much pressure. At the end of the day, I’m just not skilled enough yet. I wouldn’t say my execution is distorted, because I don’t think I’ve fully developed as a trader yet.

Hope we can all encourage each other!
Feel free to like and follow. I share some hands-on trading reflections every day!

What should we do when we're taking big losses?

I was bullish last night and still bullish this morning, but around ten o’clock I turned completely bearish!

Most of last night’s profits were wiped out by losses or fees! And I could feel it starting to affect my mindset!

My challenge account has hit a new low again recently!
There’s less than 300U left!

A lot of the time, even if I’m making money in my other accounts, I still feel awful if the challenge account is losing!
Because this is the account I trade live with.
Whether I can grow this account is what proves whether my trading skills have improved and whether my trading system works!

That’s why I’ve always cared so much about this account’s profit and loss.
But today it hit another recent low!

All in all,
these are still some of the same old problems!

I don’t want to talk about those old problems today.
I just want to share what I did afterward today and what I learned!

After taking a nap at noon,
I felt like there wasn’t much happening in the market today,
so I hopped on my little electric scooter and went to MixC World.
Then I went to Vector Coffee to look for a book I hadn’t finished reading before—Donald Trump’s Never Give Up.
I could only find an unopened copy,
and the one I’d already started reading was nowhere to be found.
So I thought, I shouldn’t let the trip go to waste. I’d read something related to trading instead!

So I reread The King of Trading, a collection of quotes from Teacher Tony that I’d saved on my phone earlier!

Halfway through, I had a special realization:

When you’re losing, you should read lots of reviews by excellent traders or collections of their quotes!
Because that’s when you’re best able to absorb what you read and relate to it!
Whatever you do, find the right moment to do the things that give you the most value for your effort!
And when you’re losing, your desire to learn is at its strongest. That’s when learning gives you the most value!
That’s when you’re most likely to take in other people’s knowledge and insights and feel a real connection with them!
Trading is about finding the right moment to do the right thing—the thing with the highest probability of success!

Hope we can all learn from one another!
Feel free to like and follow. I share a few candid trading reflections every day!
$BTC

Bracing for impact—I’ve closed all my positions. Here are the reasons:

1. The market is too weak. All the major coins have been dropping so smoothly, with absolutely no sign of resistance. I couldn’t keep my composure either, so I decided to close everything.
2. Before 7 a.m., the Nasdaq 100 had already been signaling that a downtrend was coming. Lately, I’ve been watching the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, and it does seem that Bitcoin tends to follow the Nasdaq 100. But I still wanted to stick with my view from yesterday—that Bitcoin would keep moving up and that the pullback was just a short-term correction. But when I saw all the major coins caught in a massive sell-off, I just couldn’t take it anymore, so I closed all my positions.
3. Gold has also been looking weak. I can’t see anything in the broader market suggesting that sentiment is stabilizing; it’s all PVP sentiment.
4. Since my confidence was already telling me things looked bad, I decided to close everything for now. If the market stabilizes, I can always get back in. There’s no shortage of opportunities in crypto.

The signals from the previous two posts have both been confirmed!

1. Yesterday I mentioned BTC’s B zone (根据当前行情，找到一些区域规律). Today, we’ve seen further confirmation of that signal: the B zone is beginning to follow the pattern that emerged after the A zone. This just goes to show that historical data and patterns are still worth seeking out and understanding.

2. The ETF signal I mentioned yesterday (BTC的这个信号，让我开启了多头仓位！) has received even stronger confirmation today. According to preliminary figures, net inflows into BTC have reached $289M. Several major cryptocurrency ETFs are also seeing inflows. ZEC is relatively strong, while HYPE is lagging a bit. It seems the big players aren’t ready to step in at this time or price level.

As I said yesterday, at this level, I’d rather be wrong than miss the move. And now we’ve indeed broken upward. However, it still doesn’t feel great to enter a trade. There’s a little more room to the upside now, but the pullbacks have also been pretty severe. Most major coins are moving upward rather sluggishly. The key is whether BTC can continue higher and open up more room to run.

As for my personal trades:
I’m still holding yesterday’s ETH position and will move my stop-loss up depending on the situation.
My gold trade from yesterday was stopped out. I thought about it, and it looks a lot like the pattern I mentioned earlier (发现了大饼的一些规律可参考): first, the stops on the two consecutive positions that look like a double bottom get taken out, and then the price rallies back up. Gold seems to have entered a pretty intense PVP phase lately. Without big moves, it’s hard to trade.

Also, I put together and post some thoughts and observations every day. If you find them helpful, please like and follow.
You can also vote for Crazy Jerrick and help them become one of the Top 100 Blockchain Creators of 2026! 立即投票🙏

When it comes to trading, I always like looking for patterns.
And I share them for free.
Even though these insights don’t always get much feedback,
I hope that if they resonate with you,
you’ll give this a like and drop a wave of 666s in the comments.

This time, I’m talking about Bitcoin.
History really does have an uncanny way of repeating itself!

As you can see in the chart, the correction duration and pullback magnitude in areas A and B are almost identical.
So where will the price go next after this pullback?
I’m leaning toward a move higher.
What do you think?
$BTC
#GENIUS法案预计2027年1月18日生效

In trading, what ultimately sets you apart isn’t just your skills and market insight—it’s your ability to keep learning and refining your approach.
I’ve always believed there are no shortcuts on the trading journey. Studying market dynamics a little more, reviewing your trades one more time, and avoiding just one more mistake—all of it adds up to progress.
That’s why I truly appreciate creators who are willing to share their trading insights over the long term and study the markets seriously.
Vote now for Crazy Jerrick and help him become one of the 2026 Top 100 Blockchain Creators! 立即投票
If you value his content too, please cast your vote.
Thank you for every bit of support! 🙏

Do you really think you understand the position-rolling strategy?

In my previous post, I mentioned that we should put Brother Sun’s theory into practice.
If you want to do something,
first study 100 relevant case studies.

When it comes to position-rolling,
I’m going to study 100 position-rolling cases.

But after searching around, I may not be able to find 100 completely different cases.
So I’ll spend 10 days on it,
watching at least 10 position-rolling strategy cases each day.

There are bound to be some repeated cases.
For example, if I watch tutorials on YouTube,
the ones that most people find will probably be by creators like BIT浪浪, 肥宅, 午饭, and others.
That’s fine.
I’ll spend 10 days on it,
searching for and watching them at least once every day.

Every trading guru will have different analysts sharing their take on YouTube.
So I’ll look for different analysts and watch their videos.
As long as I watch more than 10 cases a day,
those 10 could all be live position-rolling trades by Bit浪浪,
but analyzed and posted by 10 different YouTubers.
By looking at the analysis from different YouTubers,
we can put this theory into practice from a range of analytical perspectives.
That will give us a very systematic understanding of position-rolling.

To be honest,
after spending all of yesterday browsing through different position-rolling strategies,
I came to this conclusion:
the strategy behind position-rolling is actually very simple.
But the people who can put it into practice
are definitely not simple people.
They’ve almost certainly spent years learning the ropes in this market,
and have probably had their accounts liquidated many times.
They’ve also worked their way up from being complete beginners.

It’s impossible that they started using a position-rolling strategy right away and suddenly made a lot of money. (Even if they did, they’d eventually lose it all.)

If they’re able to use the position-rolling strategy successfully now,
it’s surely because they spent a long time exploring a wide range of trading strategies,
perhaps even poring over countless complicated ones.
Only then did they simplify things,
and finally grasp the true meaning of the position-rolling strategy.

As the saying goes, the greatest truths are the simplest.

I watched a lot of position-rolling strategies yesterday and took some notes. I’ll put them together and share them in 10 days. If you’d like to learn, follow along—we can improve together.

I’ve noticed some patterns in Bitcoin’s price action, and today I’ve gained a new perspective on the market. If you’re interested, feel free to use this as a reference.

1. In the past, we generally looked for a double bottom to confirm a bottom, whether on a larger or smaller time frame. We usually preferred—or felt more confident when—the second bottom was slightly higher than the first. But recently, it seems that major players have been pushing prices below previous lows to take out liquidity, then testing those levels a second time before reversing.

2. Major reversals usually begin only after price makes a new low below a previous major low. This new low generally won’t be much lower than the previous one, but it must be confirmed by at least two tests over a period of four hours or more.

3. The time between the two tests of a reversal low generally depends on the scale of the reversal. The same applies when a new low forms on a larger time frame. This includes both a bull-to-bear reversal and the time frame of a pullback within a bull market. For example, the first bull-to-bear reversal took five days to confirm the new low with two tests. During the second pullback, the correction was shorter, so confirmation also took less time—within two days.

Of course, this is just a study of Bitcoin candlestick patterns, and I haven’t yet looked at other assets. I believe many highly liquid assets may show similar patterns. Feel free to apply these ideas elsewhere, and keep researching, learning, and using them as a reference.
$BTC

Please like and follow. I’ll share all my thoughts for free in the future.

Recently, I’ve started to see rolling positions a little differently.

But I still haven’t fully grasped it, so I need to spend more time studying this strategy.
The rolling-position strategy and the swing-trading strategy I’ve talked about recently are essentially the same thing.

But as Sun said, if I’m going to start studying and learning something, I should first look at 100 relevant examples. Otherwise, it’s easy to fool myself into thinking I understand it when I’ve only grasped the basics—and end up looking like an idiot.

Please keep me accountable. Otherwise, I might stop at 99 examples and convince myself I understand it.

Starting tomorrow, I’ll study 100 examples of the rolling-position strategy, and write down my own takeaways from each one. Otherwise, I’ll get lazy again and won’t come up with anything worthwhile.

The market lately seems to be forming a bottom. I’ve already opened a starter position here, which also means I’ve begun the trial-position phase of my rolling-position strategy.

If you’re interested, follow me and let’s learn together. $BTC
#比特币重回8.2万美元上方

Musk's ideas are always so quirky.
This time, it's basically an act of charity.

He owns so many shares.
This charitable move not only earned him goodwill,
but also tied SpaceX stock to the vast majority of Americans,
which is good for SpaceX in the long run.

#SpaceX财报前涨9.8%
$SPCX

I had another new realization about chasing highs today!

For any stock you buy after it’s already risen, if you can’t find higher highs and higher lows in the shorter-term structure, get rid of it as soon as possible.
$BTC
It will not only eat into your capital,
but also drain your motivation, time, and energy.

Recently, I’ve been reading Tony’s quotes, and one really resonated with me:
“The core of trading comes down to two things:
1. Mindset: Have the right mindset. Don’t get upset when you lose money or excited when you make money. Put simply, don’t treat money like money.
2. Let your winners run and keep your losses small. Lose a little when you’re wrong, and make a lot when you’re right.”

I’ve been seriously thinking about how I’ve been entering trades over the past month, and I’ve realized:
1. As for the first point, I don’t get excited when I make money, but I do get upset when I lose it. I’m still treating money like money. So even a small floating loss makes me think my judgment must be wrong, and I can’t help wanting to close the position and get out immediately. I’ve never been able to stick firmly to my positions. Part of the reason is that my trading decisions are now based more on price action, without much logical analysis, so I’m always uncertain. Another part is that I’m too short on money and can’t afford to lose. I need to change that. I think going forward, I need to have a strong rationale for every trade so I can trust myself and hold my positions.
2. Letting winners run and keeping losses small—of course, most of my trades end in small wins or small losses, and I don’t have many big wins. This also has to do with not having a clear trading rationale. A lot of scalping trades and copycat trades shouldn’t be taken at all. I’ve been saying for ages that I should trade swings, yet now I’m taking all these trades based on irrelevant ideas. I honestly feel ridiculous. I still can’t bring myself to patiently wait for the perfect sweet spot.

I need to reflect on this some more.
#拉脱维亚议会通过加密货币税法

Let me share my live trading results. I’m ready to start fresh!

Those of you who follow me may not know this, but for the past couple of months, I’ve been taking on a challenge: growing a live trading account from 500U to $1M.

I started on July 8. Along the way, my balance dropped to just 70U, then climbed to a peak of over 2,000U, before taking a big hit down to just over 500U. I then built it back up to over 1,000U, and as of today, I’m back at 528U.

After the first big drawdown (2000U->500U), I wrote a post reflecting on the painful lessons I learned. You can find it here: 血泪复盘. At the time, I also set up a withdrawal plan for several milestones—but I still haven’t reached the first one.

As for the second big drawdown, there wasn’t really one clear, major drop. But the small rebound this Thursday was still a big disappointment: 以为是大反弹，结果是小反弹！. I lost quite a few chips.

Since that first big drawdown, I’ve basically been stuck between 500U and 1,000U. I just can’t seem to break through—or reach my first milestone, which is to withdraw 200U.

My private account also started with 500U, and I’ve already withdrawn 200U from it. But that account isn’t public, so there’s not really much to say about it.

Before I do my weekly recap today, I’m going to withdraw everything in my public live trading account above the original 500U—that’s 28U—and start over with 500U. The goal remains the same.

Let’s see how far I can get. You’re welcome to follow along, but I don’t recommend copying my trades.

P.S.
1. The historical chart doesn’t show profits above 2,000U because, at the time, the account had over 2,000U in unrealized profit. I was stopped out before I had a chance to close the position, so the chart didn’t record it. $BTC
2. If you’re interested, you can join the group to watch and discuss.