币圈荒木

Waited until 21:30
The numbers are out

U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month
Above expectations of 0.3%
Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month
The forecast was 0.2%
No year-over-year figure this time
The government shutdown last year left no comparable data

They just said this afternoon
If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher
A 50-basis-point hike still needs to be considered
This time it landed right on that threshold

Markets moved lower at first
Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1%
S&P 500 futures fell about 0.4%
The 2-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.70%
Up about 15 basis points from earlier

A 25-basis-point hike in December is now fully priced in
The probability of a 50-basis-point hike is around 13.6%

BTC dropped to around 73,800
Just note the numbers for now

I was going to lie down and wait for the 9:30 p.m. CPI release
But Waller spoke first

The Fed governor spoke in London today
He said that even if October CPI is a little better than September’s
he’d still lean toward supporting a 25-basis-point hike in December
If core CPI comes in around 0.3% month over month or higher
we’d also have to consider going straight for 50 basis points

As soon as he said that
Nasdaq 100 futures slipped about 0.3% to 0.5% in the short term
Spot gold fell below 4,090
down about 1.2% on the day
Silver was down about 2%
The 2-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to around 4.599%

BTC is still hovering around 74,500
The market had already largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike in December
Now there’s the option of 50 if needed

Tonight’s numbers aren’t out yet
But let’s keep this comment in mind

Late-night scrolling turned up MARA’s quarterly report and shareholder letter
This miner’s latest moves are pretty bold

Since quarter-end, it sold about 13,597 bitcoins
Cashing in roughly $1.1 billion
It used $750 million of that to fully repay its bitcoin-backed term loans
And also unlocked and recovered about 17,477 bitcoins

The board also approved up to $500 million in stock buybacks
As of September 30, it still held about 34,012 bitcoins

Mined 2,247 and sold 3,891 in Q3
Revenue was about $164 million, down more than 30% year over year
Net income, though, topped $600 million, mainly thanks to changes in bitcoin’s fair value

Going forward, it also plans to sell bitcoin to fund AI infrastructure, repay convertible notes, and buy back shares
Some data center leases may run through 2027

Mining, selling, unlocking collateral, and buying back shares all at once
They’re keeping the books pretty busy
We’ll see how it plays out

Scrolling at night and saw another update on Tom Lee’s ETH holdings 😅

Bitmine BMNR
Bought another 9,587 $ETH last week
For roughly $20.3 million

Total holdings now stand at around 6,070,092 ETH
About 4.97% of the circulating supply
Roughly 40,000 ETH short of their stated “Alchemy of 5%”

Around 5,227,037 ETH have been staked
A staking rate of about 86%

The company says its total assets, including crypto and cash, are worth around $14.3 billion
It also holds 216 BTC

From 4.97% to 5%
Just one final step to go
Let’s note the numbers for now

I came across this news about a major U.S. bank in the middle of the night 😮

PNC Bank, ticker PNC,
is piloting USDC payments
for corporate and institutional clients

Payments are made on Ethereum
and automatically converted to U.S. dollars at a 1:1 rate
then deposited directly into a designated PNC account

The service is powered by Coinbase’s payments product
(ticker: COIN)
and is initially available to eligible clients on a pilot basis
The bank has around $410 billion in assets

The bank is integrating stablecoin payments into its treasury workflows
to streamline cross-border and corporate settlements
I’m keeping an eye on this one

Scrolling on my phone in the middle of the night and came across this 😮

Cosmos and the Interchain Foundation officially announced
that they’re contributing the IBC cross-chain protocol to the Linux Foundation
where it’ll be hosted under LF Decentralized Trust
with neutral governance

IBC has been running in production since 2021
processing over $50 billion in transaction volume over five years
across hundreds of networks
and the code is still open source and free
Initial maintainers are Cosmos Datachain and OpenZeppelin

Someone from Google Cloud was watching too
The idea is to make it a more neutral, open interoperability standard
to make it easier for banks and institutions to come on board

Institutions want neutral standards
So the protocol is moving into a foundation
Noted

Just came across Schwab’s post 😮

Charles Schwab ticker: SCHW
Schwab Crypto accounts
now support trading three more coins

$SOL
AVAX
LINK

BTC and ETH were already available
Now you can buy all five
Fees are about 0.75% per trade

U.S. retail brokerage clients can use it
on Schwab’s website, mobile app, and thinkorswim
It’s not available in some states and regions yet

A traditional brokerage adding crypto to its accounts
I’ll make a note of that

Scrolling late at night and saw Saylor announce another purchase 😅

Strategy (MSTR)
Bought another 1,036 $BTC from November 2 to 8
Spent about $81.9 million
Average price: about $79,012

As of November 8
Total holdings reached 850,364 BTC
Company’s average cost: about $75,456
Total cost: about $64.16 billion

Also repurchased about $188.3 million worth of STRC preferred stock

Spot BTC is around $74,800
Slightly below the company’s average cost on paper

The buying spree continues
Let’s jot down the numbers for now

Scrolling through the news about tokenization and the NYSE last night 😮

Ava Labs announced
that Avalanche will provide core ledger technology
to the clearing arm of a digital ATS affiliated with the NYSE

It’s still awaiting regulatory approval
but it’s designed for 24/7 trading, clearing, and settlement

The platform can support stock tokens on multiple blockchains
Avalanche handles the bookkeeping and settlement

Dennis Lee, head of digital issuance at the NYSE, said
the right technology needs to be chosen for each use case
The settlement ledger needs to be fast and reliable
with controlled access and predictable costs

AVAX moved with the news
rising about 8% over the past 24 hours

Wall Street’s tokenization race is already heating up
Nasdaq and DTCC are also laying the groundwork
This time, the NYSE side named Avalanche
Let’s just note the facts for now

I came across Citi’s portfolio adjustment note last night 😅

Ticker C
The strategists cut US equities from overweight to neutral
Global tech was also cut to neutral
European tech was likewise moved to neutral

On the other hand,
European equities ex-UK were upgraded to overweight

The reasoning is pretty straightforward:
AI sentiment is starting to fade after the midterms
And positioning is crowded
The Nasdaq (NDX) may have another roughly 5% to fall
before positioning actually turns bearish

They’re still constructive on AI over the medium term
They just want to wait for positioning to clear out first

Last Thursday, the Nasdaq briefly lost around $2.3 trillion in market cap
Risk appetite for US stocks was already weak
Crypto was subdued too

For now, I’ll just note the bank’s positioning changes
No need to rush into calling the direction

I just came across some pretty significant regulatory news

The U.S. OCC has upgraded Coinbase’s trust charter
from conditional approval in April
to a full federal trust bank charter. $COIN

Basically, this means its custody and payments business
can finally operate under the federal trust bank framework.
It’s not a full-service bank that takes deposits and makes loans, though.

Since the GENIUS stablecoin bill passed,
this kind of charter pathway has been accelerating.
Ripple also just received a full trust charter last month.

The market is still hovering around 74k today,
but the regulatory narrative just got a serious endorsement.
Noted.

I checked my phone first thing this morning
After the Democrats’ big midterm win,
prediction markets got called out too 👀

This Politico piece pulls no punches
It calls out Kalshi and Polymarket directly
Senator Jeff Merkley
and Representative Maxine Waters
are both criticizing the same thing:
that sensitive events like elections, wars, and assassinations
can also be turned into markets for betting
And they’re preparing legislation

Trading volume for election-related contracts this cycle
has already topped about $3 billion
Kalshi alone accounts for roughly $2.5 billion or more

The markets were pretty accurate, though
Kalshi priced the Democrats’ chances of winning the House
at around 93% to 94.5%
and their chances of winning the Senate at around 73.5% to 76%
Both outcomes came through
According to Kalshi’s own data,
of the first 487 races with decided outcomes,
the market favorite won 479

The Chinese-speaking crowd probably didn’t catch up until around 8 or 9 in the morning
The markets may be accurate,
but how regulators will step in is another matter
For now, just keep the numbers in mind

The weekly candle just closed
I took a closer look 😮

$BTC The fifth consecutive bearish weekly candle is officially in the books
This week opened around 78354
Closed around 74851
Down about 4.5% for the week

Counting from the candle that closed at 86530 in early October
That’s a pullback of roughly 13–14% over five weeks
A run of consecutive down weeks like this is historically pretty rare

This morning’s low touched 73510
And made it into this weekly candle

The current price is around 74680
ETH is around 2120
Let’s get the weekly figures straight first
No need to rush into calling what the sixth candle will bring

I was jolted awake a little after six this morning 😅

Checked the market:
$BTC plunged straight through 74,000
and bottomed out around 73,510
ETH also broke below 2,125

In just ten or twenty minutes,
liquidations across the market totaled roughly $700 million to $1 billion
with most long positions getting wiped out

I was just thinking,
after trading sideways all night,
then this hit during the morning rush
Leverage really doesn’t let you sleep

Now it’s drifted back to around 74,700
ETH is a little above 2,130
Let’s just note down the numbers for now
No need to start making up a story

Scrolling on my phone on a weekend morning
Nvidia's board issued a statement

They’re launching an independent investigation
to determine whether founder and CEO Jensen Huang
has become a target of a foreign intelligence operation

The investigation will be led by an independent committee of directors,
with outside independent counsel brought in to help review the matter
The statement was carefully worded:
There is currently no reason to believe
that U.S. national security or company secrets have been compromised,
but all the information available will be reviewed

Huang emailed employees on Sunday,
admitting he had been unfaithful to his wife and apologizing
He also said he would cooperate with the investigation
A company spokesperson said
he would continue serving as CEO without interruption

NVDA is already closely tied to the AI narrative these days
For now, just read the statement carefully before the market opens on Monday

Scrolling X tonight
I came across another orange-dot chart
This time it was posted by Strive CEO Matt Cole
with just one line: The hurdle rate is orange

The chart spells it out clearly
Holdings: 43,124 BTC
Current value: about $3.27 billion
41 purchases in total
Ticker: $ASST

The last public disclosure still showed this number
There was no new purchase announcement tonight
Given their usual pattern
maybe they'll report another purchase next week

I'll make a note of it
No need to jump to conclusions ☕

Tonight I came across another long post by Vitalik
He wasn’t calling for a bull or bear market
He was explaining again how ETH should be understood

At 8:06 p.m. Beijing time
He said ETH should be seen more as a store of value than as a token whose fees are burned

Three points, pretty straightforward
First, the burn floor isn’t as solid as people imagine
A lot of what was burned from 2021 to 2023 came from NFTs and DeFi projects within the crypto ecosystem
When prices fall, people’s ability to pay falls too
Second, if burns are meant to support a market cap of around $270 billion
Ethereum would have to operate like a large corporation
It would need to spend roughly 700,000 ETH a year on R&D
Validator revenue could drop by two-thirds
Third, the store-of-value narrative is what aligns with decentralization, censorship resistance, and resistance to capture

He explicitly said EIP-1559 should stay
Don’t be discouraged if burns never reach even one-tenth of breakeven in the long run
Value isn’t found on the burn dashboard

ETH is still hovering just above 2,230 for now
I’ll keep this line of reasoning in mind
But I won’t treat it as a trading signal 👀
$ETH

I was checking the charts this weekend
when Saylor suddenly dropped “Connecting the dots”
with a chart showing the orange-coin accumulation trend

Strategy (MSTR) still holds 849327 BTC
with reserves worth about $64.44 billion
at an average cost of around $75,446
Based on the chart, unrealized gains are roughly 0.21%, or about $133 million
pretty much hovering around breakeven

The last time, on November 1, he said there was still room to load up on orange
The next day, the company disclosed another purchase of 811 BTC
at an average price of about $80,846

That old code phrase showed up again tonight
Going by the usual pattern, a holdings update often follows
How much they bought hasn’t been officially announced tonight

BTC is still grinding around $76,000
I’ll make a note of it for now—not jumping the gun 👀
$BTC

Checking on-chain activity over the weekend,
I came across something a little alarming.
A monitoring service flagged an address as the Drift attacker.

About 9 hours ago,
this address withdrew 3,100 ETH from Tornado,
swapped it for about 6.92 million USDC,
and deposited it into Hyperliquid.

Then it went straight into 20x leveraged positions on both sides:
long about 169 BTC, with a notional value of roughly 12.84 million,
and short about 5,740 ETH, with a notional value of roughly 12.83 million.
That’s over 25 million combined.

Later, someone spotted that
the long position had grown to 263 BTC,
and the short to nearly 9,000 ETH.

Money from an unknown source,
opening such huge opposing positions over the weekend—
those numbers have me a little baffled.

Just making a note of it for now.
Not guessing what comes next.

Checking the positions dashboard in the early hours
And the whales on Hyperliquid gave me another scare 😅

These big players’ BTC shorts
have piled up to around $890–920 million
while their longs are only around $450–480 million
Shorts are nearly double the longs

Net short exposure is roughly $350–470 million
the most bearish it’s been since October 2025

The largest single short is around $178.5 million
with an entry price around $76,390
There are also shorts of $155 million and $101.8 million nearby
Plus a bunch of positions over $60 million

Around October 27, they flipped to net short
and have been adding to their positions ever since
BTC perpetual open interest on the platform is around $3.13 billion
Whales already make up a sizable chunk of that

Spot is still hovering around $75,700
and the largest short is sitting just above it

Being heavily short doesn’t necessarily mean they’re right
but with positions lined up like this
it at least shows big money is leaning toward a drop right now
Let’s see what happens around $76,000