Dnural

The "$900M HYPE unlock" turned out to be tiny. HYPE still dropped. Here's the follow-up

Last week I posted that the scary "$900M $HYPE
unlock" headlines were misleading. Nov 6 has come and gone, so here's what actually happened.

The unlock part: the schedule said 9.92M HYPE, but the team reportedly distributed about 180,000 to core contributors. So the headlines were way off. I haven't seen any on-chain confirmation that those tokens were sold.

The price part: HYPE still fell. It was around $86 on Nov 3, about $80 the day before the unlock, and roughly $77-78 by this morning. That's about 10% down on the week.

So the unlock clearly wasn't the whole story. A few other things in the background:

Whales sold around $109M of HYPE at the end of October, according to Lookonchain.

The price slipped below its 50-day average, around $85.
The whole market has been shaky, with $BTC dropping over 5% on Thursday.

Honestly, I was right about the headline and that still didn't mean the price would hold. Good lesson for me too: one data point rarely explains a move.

When a coin drops, do you look for one big reason, or assume it's a mix of things?

$BTC
#Hyperliquid #TokenUnlock #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

Zcash shipped its biggest upgrade in years. Then gave back the whole pump

$ZEC
had a wild week, and it's a pretty perfect example of "buy the rumor, sell the news."

The NU7 upgrade went live on Nov 6. A few things changed:
Blocks now come every 25 seconds instead of 75.

Three confirmations take about 75 seconds instead of almost 4 minutes.

The old Sprout pool closed. Around 12,224 ZEC still sitting there (roughly $16.8M) can no longer be spent.

On upgrade day, ZEC jumped about 7% to around $1,375 while $BTC
and $ETH
were both down 4-5%.

Two days later? It slid back to around $1,250, and it's sitting near $1,270 as I write this. Roughly $4.1M in long positions got liquidated, and the Grayscale Zcash ETF saw about $11M in outflows earlier in the week.

My take: the upgrade itself looks like a real technical step. But price and progress don't always move together, especially when a lot of traders were positioned for the event.

Do you think upgrades like this matter long term, or does the market just trade the date?

#Zcash #NU7 #Altcoins #Write2Earn

PEPE did the opposite of Bitcoin again this week

Last week I posted about $PEPE
going up on the same day the Binance hacker dumped $31M of it. This week it pulled the same trick.

On Thursday, $BTC
dropped more than 5% before bouncing back toward $76K. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $430M in outflows on Nov 5.

PEPE? Up roughly 7%, back to around $0.0000050-0.0000051 after dipping to about $0.0000048.

Before anyone gets carried away though:
One green week doesn't mean money is rotating from Bitcoin into meme coins. Even the analysts covering the move say that hasn't been shown.

PEPE is still about 82% below its all-time high.

Meme coins can flip just as fast in the other direction.

My take: it's interesting that PEPE keeps holding up on days when the rest of the market looks shaky. I just wouldn't call it a trend off two data points.

Is PEPE actually getting stronger, or is it just random meme coin noise?

#PEPE #MemeCoins #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

Two stats everyone's sharing tonight:

$BTC fell around the 2018 and 2022 midterms (-37% and -16%).

But according to Benzinga, it has also finished higher one year after every US midterm since it launched.

Same elections, opposite stories. Which timeframe do you actually care about: election week or the year after?

$BTC
#USMidtermElections #Bitcoin #Write2Earn

Everyone's talking about a $900M HYPE unlock on Thursday. The real number looks a lot smaller

If you've been on crypto Twitter or Square this week, you've probably seen it: "$900M+ $HYPE
unlock on Nov 6."

Here's what I found when I looked closer.

On paper, about 9.92M HYPE is scheduled for core contributors on Nov 6. That's where the big dollar headlines come from.

But the Hyperliquid team said on Discord that it will actually distribute 180,000 HYPE to team members on Nov 6. At around $86, that's roughly $15.6M. Not $900M.

And this isn't new. In October, the schedule also said 9.92M, but only about 3.75M HYPE actually moved.

Also today: US regulators (the CFTC) approved perpetual futures on individual stocks. Hyperliquid already runs the biggest on-chain perps market for stocks like Apple, Nvidia and Tesla, so this one is directly relevant.

To be clear, I'm not saying where the price goes. Tokens being unlocked also doesn't mean they get sold. I just think "$900M unlock" without context is pretty misleading.

Did you see the $900M headline and assume the worst?

$BTC
#Hyperliquid #TokenUnlock #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

NEAR just voted to cut its own supply. The price dropped anyway

Last time I posted about $PEPE
going up after the Binance hacker dumped $31M of it. Today it's the opposite story.

NEAR holders voted 99.9% in favor of cutting the max yearly token issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%. That's about 11.8M fewer NEAR (~$45M) over two years. Less supply, sounds bullish, right?

$NEAR
fell around 7-10% today to about $3.8. Down roughly 13% on the week.

A few possible reasons:
Stakers will earn less. Staking yield drops from about 5.2% to 3.3%.
Nothing changes yet. There's still a 14-day veto window, a 90-day grace period, and validators need to upgrade.

The whole market is red today with $BTC
at a 1-month low.

Nobody can say for sure it's the vote. But it's a good reminder that "good news" and "price goes up" aren't the same thing.

Good news, red candle. Why do you think the market shrugged this off?

#NEAR #Altcoins #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

Seeing a lot of 50x $BTC trades on here today. Quick reminder: at 50x, a 2% move against you can wipe out your whole margin. BTC moved more than that just this week. Do you use leverage, or spot only?

$BTC

The Binance hacker dumped $31M of PEPE. PEPE went up anyway

PEPE is all over the most searched lists right now, and the backstory is honestly kind of wild.

After last week's Binance hack, the attacker sold about 7.77 trillion $PEPE
for roughly $31.66M. You'd expect that to crush the price.

It didn't. On the day of the hack, while $DOGE and $SHIB slid, PEPE went up. Depending on the source and the time, somewhere between 7% and 15%.

Why didn't it collapse? Size. PEPE's market cap is around $2B. A $31M sale is only about 1.5% of that. Compare that to the small caps I posted about this week, where a fraction of that money moved the price 100% in a day.

A couple of other things worth knowing:
Wallets linked to Justin Sun held around $51M of PEPE as of late September, which made him the biggest individual holder.
It's still roughly 83% below its all-time high.
Today it's a bit weaker, down about 4%.

Not saying where it goes next. I just think it's a good example of how much market cap matters when big money moves.

Did you expect PEPE to survive a $31M dump like that?

#PEPE‏ #memecoins #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

ESPORTS gave back a big chunk of yesterday's pump. Quick follow-up

Yesterday I posted about $ESPORTS jumping 100%+ with no news behind it. Said I'd check back, so here it is.

At the time of writing it's around $0.014, down about 31% in 24 hours. From yesterday's high near $0.0224, that's a drop of roughly 37%.

It's still about double its Oct 30 low, so it hasn't erased the whole move. But it's a good reminder of how fast these things turn.

The number that stood out to me: around $390M traded in futures in a single day, on a coin with a market cap of roughly $12-13M. That's about 30x its whole market cap changing hands in 24 hours.
When that much leverage piles into something this small, big swings in both directions aren't a surprise.

Still no news that I could find, for the pump or the drop.

Not saying where it goes from here. Just think it's worth following these stories after the hype, not only during it.

Did anyone here catch the move, or get caught by it?

$ESPORTS
#ESPORTS #Altcoins #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

$ESPORTS
is up 100%+ today. Here's what I could find (and what I couldn't)

Saw a lot of people asking about this one, so I did some digging.

The short version: I couldn't find any news behind today's move. No announcement, no listing, nothing official. If you've seen something, drop it below.

What I did find is some useful context:

It hit its all-time low just two days ago, on Oct 30. So part of this is a bounce from the very bottom.

Even after today, it's still around 98% below its May high.

This coin has a history of huge swings both ways. In May it dropped over 90% in about two hours after a project-linked wallet sold a big chunk of tokens.

It's also tied up in a lawsuit. In October, DWF Labs sued BitGo, claiming locked ESPORTS tokens were sold early.

With a market cap around $15M, it doesn't take much money to move the price a lot. Up or down.

I'm not saying where it goes next, honestly nobody knows. Just think it's worth knowing the full story before getting excited about a green candle.

Anyone know what actually triggered this?

$ESPORTS #ESPORTS #Altcoins #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

Heads up if you use Binance: scammers love weeks like this

Every time something big happens in crypto, the scam DMs show up right after. And this week was about as big as it gets.

So if you get any of these, just ignore them:

"Claim your hack compensation here" with a link. Binance has said users won't lose anything, and nothing about that needs you to click a random link.

"Your account was affected, verify your details." If you're worried, open the app yourself and check there. Never through a DM.

"Skip the withdrawal queue with this link." There's no secret fast lane.

A call from "Binance Support." Just hang up and check in the app.

The simple rule I follow: if the message came to me, I don't trust it. I go find the info myself.

Seen anything like this in the last few days? Share it below so others know what to look out for.

$BTC
$BNB
$ETH
#CryptoSecurity #ScamAwareness #Binance #Write2Earn

Can you withdraw from Binance yet? Depends on the coin

Lots of people asking this today so I put together what's been confirmed so far.

Withdrawals came back this morning, but not all at once. Binance is opening them network by network, starting with the coins people used most last week.

$BTC was the first one back, shortly after 06:00 UTC.

After that came $ETH , USDT and USDC on Ethereum, plus $BNB, USDT and USDC on BNB Smart Chain.

Still rolling out in phase one: $SOL, $XRP, $DOGE, $SUI and $ZEC, plus ETH and stablecoins on Base and Optimism.

Binance also says 10 assets are now fully backed: $BTC , $ETH , USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC. The rest is still being bought back.

Two things to know:
Withdrawals might be slow for a while because everyone is trying at once.

Always check the withdrawal page or the network status page before sending anything. This is changing by the hour.

The full proof of reserves is supposed to come early this week. That's the one I'm waiting for.

Did your withdrawal go through yet? Which coin, and how long did it take?

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB $SOL $XRP #Binance #BinanceWithdrawals #CryptoNews #Write2Earn

🔥 CRYPTO COMMUNITY, LET'S TALK!

If you could choose only ONE cryptocurrency to hold for the next 12 months, what would it be?

₿ Bitcoin Ξ Ethereum ◎ Solana 💎 Another altcoin?

Drop your pick and tell us WHY!

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #BinanceSquare

🚀 BITCOIN: THE NEXT BIG MOVE?
Bitcoin is showing why the crypto market never sleeps!
Investors are watching key price levels, trading volume, and market momentum.
The big question is:
📈 Are we heading towards a new rally? 📉 Or is another correction coming?
What's your prediction for BTC this week?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BinanceSquare