CryptoQuant Quicktake

As Ethereum bleeds from its October high of $4,800 down to $1,900, the derivatives market is flashing a rare contrarian signal. The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Ethereum funding rates on Binance has plunged deep into negative territory, hitting -0.006.

Key Insights:

3-Year Low Sentiment:

This level of -0.006 marks the lowest value recorded since early December 2022. It indicates that bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years.

Overcrowded Shorts:

Such a deeply negative rate implies that short sellers are aggressively dominating the market, paying a significant premium to keep their positions open at these lower price levels.

Reversal Setup:

Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a massive short squeeze. When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears.

Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Its objective is to clarify legal classifications, delineate oversight between the SEC and CFTC, define registration standards for exchanges and custodians, and set issuance and reserve requirements for stablecoins. In effect, it attempts to provide a constitutional foundation for the crypto industry.

Yet legislative progress has slowed. The central conflict revolves around yield-bearing stablecoins. Banking groups argue that offering interest or rewards transforms stablecoins into deposit substitutes, potentially increasing liquidity risks for regional banks. They advocate strict limits on compensation structures. Exchanges, however, depend on yield programs as key revenue streams and user acquisition tools, making this issue structurally significant.

If enacted, CLARITY could evolve in two directions. A restrictive framework may limit stablecoins primarily to payment functions and subject yield products to securities or bank-level regulation. Alternatively, a conditional model may permit limited yield structures under enhanced capital, disclosure, and segregation requirements.

Despite regulatory uncertainty, on-chain indicators suggest resilience. ERC20 stablecoin supply remains elevated, and active addresses continue at stable levels, indicating preserved liquidity rather than structural capital flight.

CLARITY’s impact is therefore more likely to reshape participant composition and institutional accessibility over time than to trigger immediate price reactions.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Binance’s Exchange Reserve for ETH is declining meaning coins are being withdrawn from the exchange. Under normal conditions a shrinking exchange supply is considered a positive signal for price. However, price is also falling right now. This suggests that a stronger negative factor is dominating the market. Those factors may include:

1-Derivatives pressure outweighs spot dynamics. Exchange Reserve reflects spot supply but short term price action is mostly driven by the futures market. If open interest is high funding has turned negative and the short side is aggressive derivatives selling can push price lower even if spot supply is shrinking. In other words withdrawals in spot may be overshadowed by stronger short pressure in futures.

2-Withdrawn ETH may not be for holding. Exchange outflows do not always mean long term accumulation. ETH can be withdrawn to be used as DeFi collateral for OTC transactions moved to L2 or staking platforms or transferred to other exchanges. Binance reserves may be declining while global sell pressure still persists.

3-Weak demand side. A supply decrease alone is not enough. If there are no strong new buyers stablecoin inflows are weak or overall risk appetite is low price may not react positively.

4-Macro and market correlation. ETH does not move in isolation. If BTC is weak the DXY is strong or broader risk markets are under pressure positive reserve signals can be overridden by macro driven downside.

5-Whales loading into derivatives. At times large players withdraw spot ETH while simultaneously opening short positions in derivatives.

Currently, reserves are trending downward again, moving averages look weak after a bearish crossover and price sits around $2.9K with fading momentum. If derivatives pressure continues declining reserves may not immediately trigger a rebound. Instead, price could first clear liquidity and retest lower support levels potentially pointing toward the $1,700 region.

Written by PelinayPA

Binance has officially completed the conversion of its SAFU fund into 15,000 BTC, finalizing the $1 billion transition within 30 days of its initial announcement.

The final tranche included 4,545 BTC, bringing total holdings to 15,000 BTC. At a Bitcoin price of $67,000, the fund is now valued at approximately $1.005 billion.

If BTC volatility pushes the fund below $800 million, Binance has committed to rebalancing it back to $1 billion. This move positions Bitcoin as the exchange’s primary long-term reserve asset and reinforces institutional confidence in BTC as collateral.

Written by maartunn

Bitcoin just posted $2.3B in realized losses.

This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction.

📊 What is Net Realized Profit/Loss?

It measures the dollar value of profit or loss locked in when Bitcoin moves on-chain. Red bars show coins sold or transferred at a loss relative to their purchase price.

The bigger the bar, the more pain.

🔴 Current reading: $2.3B (7-day average)

This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin's history have seen this level of capitulation.

👥 Who is selling?

Short-Term Holders (coins held <155 days) who bought between $80K-$110K are capitulating. Weak hands and overleveraged retail are locking in steep losses.

Long-Term Holders are not the source of this spike. They hold through drawdowns.

📍 Historical Context:

In the past, extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds. We're seeing it now: BTC bounced from $60K to $71K after the capitulation.

But this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets.

Takeaway: $2.3B in realized losses triggered a bounce from $60K to $71K, consistent with historical capitulation patterns. But the risk remains that this is relief within a longer distribution phase, not a trend reversal. Watch for sustained strength or further deterioration.

Written by IT Tech

The Z-Score data for XRP trading volume on Binance (30-day average) provides a clear picture of liquidity and momentum during the current market phase, offering a valuable framework for understanding the relationship between price movements and actual trading activity.

Currently, XRP is trading near $1.37, with a daily trading volume of approximately 173 million XRP, while the Z-Score is hovering around zero. This reading indicates that the current trading volume is close to its historical average over the past 30 days, without any sharp upward or downward deviations.

In this context, the Z-Score hovering near zero reflects a balance between buying and selling forces, suggesting that the market is experiencing a period of relative calm after earlier bouts of higher volatility. This type of environment is often observed during consolidation or repositioning phases, when traders rebuild their positions without strong directional impulses.

A comparison with past periods on the chart shows that sharp spikes in the Z-Score have often preceded significant price moves in XRP, both upward and downward. Conversely, periods in which the index stabilizes near zero tend to precede subsequent directional movements once the equilibrium phase is complete.

Therefore, the current reading can be interpreted as a sign that the market is in a holding pattern, with a low probability of an immediate explosive move, but a higher likelihood of a new wave forming if a sudden surge in trading volume occurs. A bullish breakout in the Z-Score above +2 could be an early indication of renewed momentum, while a sharp drop below it could reflect increased caution or the start of a corrective wave.

Written by Arab Chain

A promo meant to credit users with 2,000 KRW (~$1.36) accidentally credited 2,000 BTC instead.

The result: ~620,000 BTC briefly appeared inside Bithumb’s internal system. These were not real on-chain coins, just accounting entries.

For context, Bithumb currently holds only 41,798 BTC in reserves.

Around the incident, 3,875 BTC (~$268M) were withdrawn. Some users may have capitalized on the error, while others likely reacted to the shock.

Bithumb says 99.7% was reversed (618,212 BTC), leaving 1,788 BTC unresolved.

On-chain flows suggest the story may be bigger.

Written by maartunn

While Bitcoin’s price bled from $124K to $67K, the Binance Futures‑to‑Spot ratio quietly painted a different picture – especially for altcoins.

By late January, the ratio for ETH, XRP, and Solana had collapsed to multi‑month lows, reflecting fear and spot‑driven selling. But since February began, something shifted. ETH’s ratio climbed from 3.7 to 7.5, breaking decisively above its 7‑day moving average. XRP followed, surging from 2.6 to 4.6. Solana nearly doubled. Even Bitcoin’s ratio recovered, yet altcoins led the charge – their upside momentum in futures activity now outrunning BTC’s.

This isn’t random noise. A rising futures/spot ratio from depressed levels signals returning speculative appetite. Traders aren’t just hedging; they’re positioning. The fact that altcoins are showing stronger relative recovery in this metric suggests capital is rotating back into risk assets before price confirms it.

History echoes: similar bottoms in this ratio preceded the Q1 2024 and Q4 2025 rallies. Today’s setup isn’t euphoria – it’s quiet accumulation in derivatives markets. Short‑term pain is visible, but the futures tape is already discounting a turnaround.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Bitcoin’s slide from $124K to $67K has shaken markets, but on-chain data reveals a split screen: short-term holders are panic‑selling while long‑term believers barely flinch. This isn’t 2022.

At the peak last October, short‑term holders were euphoric – they sent over $8.3 billion in profits to exchanges in a single week. Now the mood has flipped. By mid‑February, loss‑making STH inflows surged to $399 million on February 11, with some days seeing 99% of their deposits underwater. It’s classic capitulation, but the dollar amounts are actually smaller than the $1.5 billion loss day in August 2024. Fear is real, yet less extreme than previous sell‑offs.

Long‑term holders tell a different story. Even as prices tumbled, LTH inflows remained a fraction of STH volume, and most coins arrived in profit. On February 11, when STH dumped $399 million at a loss, LTH sent only $23.8 million in losses – a drop in the ocean. Contrast this with early 2024, when LTH absorbed over $225 million in losses during a single capitulation. Today, they’re sitting tight.

This divergence matters. In 2022, long‑term holders bled red for months. This time, they’re refusing to sell at a loss. Short‑term panic is loud, but the quiet conviction of those who’ve weathered cycles suggests the floor may be closer than the fear implies.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Executive Summary:

On-chain data reveals that the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of USD Coin (ERC-20) active addresses has reached a new all-time high of 186,000. This spike in network utility is inversely correlated with the current price action of major assets.

Market Context & Analysis:

This record-breaking activity coincides with a severe correction in the crypto market. Bitcoin has retraced approximately 45%, falling from its $125,000 peak in October 2025 to $68,000 as of February 2026.

1. Flight to Safety (Risk-Off):

The surge in active addresses indicates classic “risk-off” behavior. Investors are aggressively swapping volatile assets (BTC, altcoins) into stablecoins to preserve capital. The specific preference for USDC often signals activity from institutional players and sophisticated DeFi users who prioritize transparency and regulatory safety during market turbulence.

2. Accumulating “Dry Powder”:

While the price drop signals fear, the on-chain data offers a silver lining. Liquidity is not exiting the ecosystem to fiat; it is merely being “parked” on the Ethereum network. This high volume of active addresses represents a massive accumulation of “dry powder”—purchasing power that remains on-chain.

Conclusion:

The divergence between falling prices and rising stablecoin activity suggests we are in a period of capitulation. However, history suggests that high stablecoin accumulation during price bottoms often precedes a reversal. The $68,000 level is effectively being tested by capital that is waiting on the sidelines, ready to re-enter the market once stability returns.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin market sentiment is showing early signs of stabilization, and Binance’s 7-day Net Taker Flow reflects that shift when viewed in proper macro context. Crypto markets move in cycles. During bearish phases, aggressive sell orders dominate and net taker flow turns deeply negative as risk appetite contracts. As selling pressure exhausts, that imbalance begins to compress before buyers gradually regain control.

After reaching nearly -$4.9B in cumulative net selling in early February, Binance’s 7-day taker flow has steadily recovered and flipped positive to around +$0.32B. The sentiment ratio has moved from roughly -3% back into positive territory, signaling a clear decline in sell-side aggression. Daily sell dominance has weakened, while taker buy volume is increasingly absorbing liquidity as Bitcoin stabilizes around the mid-$60K range.

Context is essential. When compared with aggregated exchange data, the recovery is not isolated, but Binance shows a stronger shift in net buying pressure than peers. This suggests recent outflows were part of broader crypto market cyclicality rather than venue-specific stress, with directional positioning concentrating where liquidity depth is highest.

From a market structure perspective, sustained negative net taker flow often aligns with late-stage distribution. The recent compression in cumulative sell volume and transition back to positive flow points to early-stage trend stabilization. Across multiple Bitcoin cycles, exchanges demonstrating relative flow stability tend to normalize first as sentiment improves. Current data supports a narrative of declining selling pressure and strengthening spot-driven demand within the broader digital asset market cycle.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Data from the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Tracker on Binance shows that the market has currently reached approximately 662 days after the halving, a stage that historically falls around the midpoint of the cycle. This indicates that the market has moved beyond the initial post-halving surge and has begun entering a phase of balance and gradual structural building.

The Cycle Position indicator records a reading of approximately 0.453, suggesting that the cycle has not yet reached its final stages and remains within the mid-phase. At the same time, the Growth Ratio stands at around 1.055, reflecting positive but moderate growth, far from excessive expansion.

Meanwhile, the Z-Score, at approximately -1.64, indicates that the market is trading below its statistical average. This condition is often observed during consolidation or correction phases, where selling pressure tends to be relatively elevated.

Overall, these readings suggest that the market is undergoing a phase of rebalancing and accumulation within the current cycle, with the broader cyclical structure remaining intact. Additionally, the decline in relative volatility and the stability of the 30-day moving average support the idea that the market is building a new structural base. Historically, such phases often precede larger expansionary moves as momentum gradually improves and liquidity returns to the market.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) has now dropped into the low 0.2 range.

Historically, this level aligns more closely with early bear market phases (2018, 2022) rather than mid-cycle corrections.

In October, BCMI was holding around 0.5 — a neutral equilibrium zone.

Today, that structure has clearly broken down.

What changed?

The 0.5 mid-cycle equilibrium failed to hold

No strong rebound from 0.3

Direct continuation toward 0.2 without expansion reset

This behavior differs from past mid-cycle cooling phases.

Instead, it resembles a risk-off regime transition.

Historical Context

Previous cycle bottoms formed when BCMI reached:

~0.10–0.15 in 2019

~0.15 in 2022–2023

Current levels remain above historical capitulation zones.

This suggests that while the market may already be in a bearish structure,

full capitulation conditions have not yet appeared.

Structural Interpretation

BCMI aggregates valuation (MVRV), profitability (NUPL), spending behavior (SOPR), and sentiment.

A move into the low 0.2s reflects:

Shrinking unrealized profits

Increasing realized losses

Sentiment deterioration

Valuation compression underway

However, extreme panic territory (0.1 zone) has not yet been reached.

Conclusion

The data increasingly supports a bear market transition scenario, not a simple correction.

Unless BCMI stabilizes and reclaims 0.4–0.5,

the probability favors continued structural weakness.

From a cycle perspective,

true bottom conditions may still be ahead.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

• LTH NUPL reached 0.39 during the latest market drop.

• The last time that long-term holders saw a similar low level of unrealized profit after an ATH was in May 2022.

• Indicator: LTH NUPL (by Axel Adler Jr., CQ Verified Author).

Written by _OnChain

• STH NUPL reached -0.5 during the latest market drop.

• The last time that short-term holders recorded a similar level of unrealized losses after an ATH was in June 2022.

Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin’s temporary break below $60,000 triggered a wave of nervousness across the market, including among whales.

Contrary to a common belief, these large holders do not systematically represent a form of rational and patient smart money. They also react to market shocks, sometimes opportunistically, sometimes under pressure.

As shown by the chart tracking their inflows to Binance, a platform often favored for large transactions due to its deep liquidity, spikes in inflows tend to appear both during euphoric phases and during market lows.

The current situation clearly reflects this dynamic.

As BTC fell from $95,000 to $60,000, the average monthly inflows of BTC to Binance from whales increased sharply.

They rose from around 1,000 BTC to nearly 3,000 BTC, with a notable spike of roughly 12,000 BTC on February 6 alone. This type of movement signals an intensification of transfers to exchanges at a time of strong price stress.

Since February 1, seven trading days have recorded more than 5,000 BTC in daily inflows from this group of investors. This unusual frequency highlights that some whales remain highly sensitive to rapid market swings and are actively adjusting their positions.

Rising inflows typically signal increasing selling pressure, which is especially concerning in an environment where overall market liquidity is tightening. Given the scale of the volumes they move, whales can abruptly influence price dynamics. Monitoring their flows is therefore essential to anticipate volatility phases and better understand the forces shaping the market.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin is going through a period of sharp volatility, highlighting the fragility of current market sentiment. Between February 5 and 6, the asset staged an impressive 17% rally, jumping from $60K to the $70K resistance in less than 24 hours. However, the inability to sustain this level brought the price back to the $66K region today. This “whipsaw” movement reinforces the importance of adaptive metrics to distinguish market noise from structural reversals. To eliminate uncertainty and clarify whether we are already at a market inflection point or not, let’s analyze the metrics of BTC: MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-Day Window).

INTERPRETING THE METRICS

◾ MVRV: < -3.0 | Accumulation → Seller exhaustion zone and strong buying opportunity.

◾ MVRV: 0.0 to -3.0 | Capitulation → Sharp correction; the market tests support levels.

◾ Adaptive Z-Score Characteristics: The Z-Score, which at the time of this post stands at -2.70, isolates annual volatility, revealing the severity of the deviation.

◾ 30-Day SMA → Shows the trend floating above the histogram bars, confirming that selling pressure still dominates in the short term.

CONCLUSION

The current Z-Score reading of -2.70 proves that, despite the nominal price of $66K, Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone. The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase. The statistical deviation of the Z-Score screams opportunity, signaling that the bottom of this downtrend is being forged right now.

Written by GugaOnChain

📰 Daily Market Update:

Recent on-chain and exchange data are starting to paint a more cautious picture for Bitcoin price

📊 [BTC] Binance Inflows by Trader Size

This chart tracks the 7-day avg daily BTC inflows into Binance, segmented by trader size (Retail, Mid-size, and Whales).

🔬 Key Observation

📈 On Feb 8, the 7-day avg whale inflow exceeded 1,970 BTC.

📈 This is significantly higher than the previous three major inflow events during October, November, and December, where inflows barely crossed 400 BTC.

⏲️ Importantly, those earlier inflow events coincided with a local market top, after Bitcoin reached nearly $124,000 in mid-October, followed by a sustained price correction.

📊 USDT: Total Mint and Burn on Tron / Ethereum

This chart shows the total USDT minting and burning activity across (TRC20) and (ERC20) networks.

Quick reminder:

💰 Mint = new USDT created → adds liquidity (generally bullish)

🔥 Burn = USDT destroyed → removes liquidity (generally bearish)

🔬 Key Observation

🔥 On Feb 9, a massive $3.5B USDT burn on Ethereum was recorded.

🔥 On January 20, $3B worth of USDT was burned on Ethereum, which was followed by BTC drop from over $90k to under $67k by February 6.

💸 Such large burns signal liquidity leaving the system, often adding downside pressure.

📊 Whales Screener

This model tracks netflows of BTC, ETH, and stablecoins across 100+ whale wallets.

📈 On Feb 4, 5, and 7, sharp spikes in BTC net inflows to spot exchanges were observed (orange arrows).

📈 Each day saw inflows between $650M → $850M.

Consistent whale deposits of this scale usually reflect distribution behavior.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ The alignment of whale inflows to spot CEX, USDT burn event, and repeated whale netflows points to a cautious market.

Whales appear to be reducing exposure, while stablecoin liquidity is leaving the system. Historically, this combination has not been bullish—it often signals profit‑taking and lower risk appetite.

Written by Amr Taha

The Bitcoin market is in a bearish correction phase, with downside pressure conditionally dominant. The central issue is not price forecasting, but whether current miner stress represents late-stage capitulation or a structural adjustment within the cycle.

Miners validate transactions and secure the network, earning block subsidies and transaction fees. Their operations are capital-intensive, with high fixed costs such as electricity and hardware depreciation. As a result, profitability is highly sensitive to price and network demand.

The Daily Miner Revenue and Network Hashrate chart shows revenue declining alongside price, while hashrate remains elevated. This indicates that margins are compressed, yet large-scale shutdowns have not occurred. Network security remains intact, suggesting the system has not entered a full capitulation phase.

However, sustained revenue weakness may force miners to liquidate BTC holdings to maintain cash flow. Selling inventory to fund operations is economically rational under margin pressure and can add short-term supply, increasing volatility.

The Revenue Breakdown chart shows strong dependence on block subsidies, with fees subdued. Historically, rising fees signal stronger on-chain demand. Current fee weakness suggests a demand-driven recovery has not yet materialized.

At present, revenue stress with stable hashrate points to adjustment rather than full capitulation. If hashrate declines with continued revenue compression, structural weakness may extend. If fees recover and hashrate stabilizes, this view should be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin’s price has dropped sharply to the 66.5K region. Meanwhile, the funding rate is at -0.0012 and even lower, with occasional sharp negative spikes. This indicates that the market is aggressively positioned on the short side. When funding is negative, it means short positions are paying longs in other words, there is a heavy short concentration in the market.

Psychologically, this shows that investors believe the downtrend will continue. The market has shifted into fear and defensive mode. Leveraged short positions are accumulating.

When negative funding and a sharp price decline occur together, it often sets the stage for a potential short squeeze. If selling momentum weakens, even a small wave of short liquidations could be triggered. Trapped shorts eventually have to close their positions. This kind of reaction could potentially come from the $58,000 support level.

Since Binance has the highest derivatives volume, a significant portion of the leveraged positions that truly move the price are opened there. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to this chart. Binance is the backbone of the crypto market, and imbalances formed there often put pressure on price action.

Written by PelinayPA