灯塔说

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Morning, brothers
$SPCX earnings report exceeded expectations
Just hit the set 130 take-profit

On the 6th there will be a large amount of unlocks—watch the sell pressure!

Regarding the Iran-Iraq negotiations, right now besides Qatar, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and some unknown third-party media that reported it,
there are still two crucial figures who haven’t spoken: Iran and Trump
Can Iran pretend to deny it just a little
so my short positions can all come out tonight
Tomorrow I’m also driving myself—I want to drive in peace
If it really doesn’t work
then I’ll have to close out and take a rest

spcx went from 109 to 120, that’s enough
and the financial report doesn’t matter much either
The big bet and gold shorts are still the main direction
but the entry price is still a bit too early and uncomfortable
I might reduce my position first, then feel at ease holding and waiting for the rebound to end
$SPCX
$XAU
$BTC

$XAU brothers, after this you can enter my gold's empty position
Unexpected rebound at 4107—add a bit there

BTC's 63900 is also a good spot

Does your finance minister’s words work?

Talking nonsense here

If you had something to say, why didn’t you say it earlier?
If what you said doesn’t work, don’t say it
CNM

My crude oil short position opened at 81 didn’t move for more than half an hour
After I had been shorted for over half an hour, it started accelerating into a sell-off
Right after that, you came out and started talking

You already set up your short position
Right?
$CL

Bitcoin and gold short positions entered a little early
A little too eager
Still, because the shorts could come at any moment, I was afraid of missing out

In this round, I want to profit from both long and short trades!
Wait for the wind to come!
$BTC $XAU $SPCX

The Federal Reserve’s July meeting will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but three committee members called for a 25BP rate hike; the official statement still emphasizes that inflation remains above target.

As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%

Looking at today’s latest expectation, it is 64.7%

This indicates that the market’s expectation for a rate hike in September is getting higher (with such elevated expectations, it’s difficult for the near-term market to be bullish).

The data for August is crucial: for the August 7 jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the forecast is over 80,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%

The actual released data is critical.

The pressure is on Worsh! If all the data strongly points toward a rate hike, can Worsh hold up under the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL

I don’t mean anything targeted at anyone here.
I just want to use this kind of venting to warn you in advance:
This kind of trading can’t make money.
Only “the thrill of the experience.”
That sense of experience will consume your costs,
wear down your principal.

This short-term fast thrill is the best combo product for “teachers” who just entered the market and brand-new “rookies.”

Do you like this approach?

Don’t drag it out.
Stop just skimming the surface.
Hurry up—the waterfall.
I have a whole pile of empty orders (BTC and gold).
Besides $SPCX

$SPCX How’s this second-market “big test” going?

Wall Street broadly expects Q2 revenue to be between $6.72 billion and $6.90 billion. GAAP net loss is expected to be on the order of $2 billion.

Starlink’s connection services revenue is currently the absolute main driver. The market urgently needs to see a clear path to monetizing AI-related applications, along with strong growth in subscription users.

Believe in Musk once
And believe in the first earnings report after the IPO

Last night I also successfully got in at the pullback entry point.
Now it’s possible to cut the loss at cost until the earnings report is released.
Sell before the lockup shares are unlocked and released on August 6!

Trillion-yuan dead money, a brand-new key—does Babylon TBV really work?

You definitely know a friend like this: holding BTC, selling neither in a bear market nor in a bull market. When you ask why they don’t take it and use it, they say only: “Wherever else it goes, it’s not as safe as keeping it in your own wallet.”

They’re not wrong. Over the past five years, there have been plenty of attempts to bring BTC into DeFi, but after winding around, there’s always the same old problem: either trust an institution, or trust a bridge, or trust a packaged IOU. For a real holder, these three options are essentially the same thing—handing your coins away.

So with a market value of 比特币 trillion, the share of DeFi penetration is under 1%. It’s not that there’s no demand—it’s that there’s no channel.

Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) tries a different route.

TBV’s core logic isn’t complicated: BTC stays put on the Bitcoin mainnet. By using pre-signed transactions plus cryptographic proofs (the BABE protocol, developed in collaboration with the Berkeley cryptography team), it manages the lockup and settlement logic.

You open a vault with BTC, and borrow USDC against it at 以太坊. Repayment goes through the normal redemption process; if the vault is liquidated, it follows the pre-signed execution path. Throughout, you don’t need a multi-sig committee, you don’t need cross-chain bridge custody, and you don’t need wrapped assets.

Self-custody, isolated vaults—one vault per user.

Where are we at right now? (Click to view the update thread below.)
#baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io

Brothers, we’re all about unity of knowledge and action.
And I also hate empty talk.
That’s why I’ve been trading on the live market.

The $SPCX earnings report hasn’t been released yet, but the adjustment last night just pulled back to the order levels I warned about.
Now it’s completely possible to include a stop-loss at cost and see if we can push a run to the opening price of 135 once the report comes out.

Tomorrow there is a SpaceX Q2 earnings report.
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.

Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.

Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...

I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX

At this stage, the only ones who can survive are old “suckers”

I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”

Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.

Talk about the trading of Bitcoin and gold:\n\nOn the weekend I was flat on Bitcoin, planning to buy near 63,750, but on the weekend I entered near 63,310 early.\nThe 63,750 I posted in the morning also got filled.\nToday it also reached the preset target of 63,580.\nI continue to post a short at 62,900–63,000.\nAt around 62,200 it can’t hold up; I plan to take another look near 61–60K.\nBelow that, it hasn’t been decided how much yet, but it’s currently weak and the macro backdrop is bearish.\nGo with the trend and short. Leaving room for a move to 59K.\nBelow 60K is also a pretty good spot for a low buy.\n\nToday I also went short on gold.\nThe target is 4015; I plan to test 4000 again, and it may even drop below 4000.\nBut it’s fine if it breaks below—breaking below is a good thing; it creates an opportunity to low buy.\nIn the future, cherish the opportunity when it breaks below 4000; the extreme case would be making a new low around 3,900.\n\nI’m bullish on the future trend of Bitcoin and gold—August’s pullback is an opportunity.\n$BTC $XAU \n\n

Crude oil has reached the specified target near 79
Another precise guidance

Remember the last time it was guided from 77–79 to 85–87?
It hit every single band!

But to be honest, I only captured part of the profit.
$CL
Now we’re waiting for further progress in the negotiations. If it breaks below the 78 area, the next step will be around 69.

During the talks, it’s enough to go short on the rebounds.

This funding rate is too high.
Annualized: -899%

At this point, let’s not have Trump come in with a reversal.
And don’t shoot any shells.
$CL

Iran cares too much about appearances
Trump is much better in this regard
Completely clueless about what “face” even means

Although they’re all stubbornly tough, everyone wants to end the fight as quickly as possible!$CL