灯塔说

The CPI data combination I lean toward most is:
Headline YoY 3.4% and MoM 0.4%;
Core YoY 2.4% and MoM 0.2%.
This points to prices rising more quickly overall, but with relatively moderate core inflation.
The conclusion is that it either meets expectations or comes in short of expectations (which would be favorable for a rebound in the market).

Also, if tonight’s CPI data is strong, the expectation for a September rate hike will rise further, and Vaish probably won’t be able to withstand the pressure.
Moreover, the oil price is set to start rising sharply in September; in August it was relatively mild, and the expected value is already much higher than the prior figure. The likelihood of coming in above expectations is low.
$BTC

Yesterday the U.S. bond market and the skyrocketing oil prices made the market worry again
The probability of a rate hike in September rose to 72%
The impact of a rate hike is persistent, so we still need to stay alert

Right now everyone is watching tonight’s CPI data; if the data proves strong again,
I’m afraid the market won’t be able to hold and will push for another rate hike

On the technical side, as long as 762 hasn’t been broken,
I can continue to look for longs in the higher range
If it breaks below, I’ll look to buy again in the 73–72K area afterward

For gold, I still consider support around the 42-leading level

Keep the expectation that the Fed will maintain rates unchanged—so long as profitability remains stable,
the market will return to strength!
$BTC $XAU

Under the pressure of strong data and high oil prices,
BTC and gold market trends are both being suppressed.
Watch the key watershed level at 76.2k.

If it breaks below, you’ll need to consider waiting for a deeper pullback to buy.
Or, it’s still around the strong support near 72K.
$BTC

US August PPI year-over-year growth exceeded expectations, still far above the Fed’s inflation target
US wholesale prices rose in August
The released PPI report could play an important role in the rate decision the Federal Reserve is about to make
Data showed that after seasonal adjustment, August PPI increased 0.4% month-over-month, matching market expectations, and rose 5.4% year-over-year—still far above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and 0.1 percentage point higher than market expectations.
Rate-hike expectations are still rising!
$BTC

It seems like the big cake is getting harder to go up now
But it’s already very resilient
This is just a healthy correction
$BTC

Review and trading thoughts:

Last Friday, the strong non-farm payrolls data raised expectations of a rate hike. After breaking above 82K, the market pulled back, but the correction did not continue over the weekend. ETF inflows provided some support to the market. On September 3, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $730.8 million, and on September 4, net inflows continued at $174.6 million.
This Friday there will be CPI data, which is an important release that may further affect expectations for a September rate hike.
My view remains unchanged: the main potential macro negative factor right now is still a rate hike. However, the current U.S. Treasury does not want rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is ostensibly independent, but in reality it also will not raise rates, and it is even less likely to cut rates. If inflation is high, Wosh will keep sounding hawkish but will not actually take rate-hiking action.
So, the bearish moves before the policy meeting are just adjustments and pullbacks in the market. If the pullback is small, then go long on a small scale; if the pullback is large, then pay attention to the previously mentioned second entry point around 72-73K before moving toward 96-97K.
That is the main directional view!

As for gold, the previous adjustment from 4680 has not ended yet. The rebound from 4300 to 4500 was in line with expectations for a bounce, and it will continue to adjust afterward before rising again. Continue to watch around 4200 as the starting point for the next upswing.

For intraday trading: wait for BTC to go long on dips, around 78K. For gold, watch support at 4360-4380 and resistance around 4460-4480, looking for range-bound adjustments.
[Personal trading opinions only, not investment advice]
$XAU $BTC

This upsurge once again caught the lowest point. Trading recap:

Yesterday, due to a decline in expectations of further rate hikes, the US dollar fell, long-term Treasury yields for the 30-year tenor dropped, and both the BTC and gold markets rose, breaking above the prior consolidation range. This round of macro-driven narrative tailwinds is continuing. Therefore, the mid-term bullish view of 96–97K remains unchanged. Earlier, I shorted gold at the previous high. I took profit around 4300 and flipped to go long early, and I also went long on the “big pie” around 76300. Last Friday, Woesh’s speech served as a reminder that near-term downside pullbacks are an opportunity—its value has appeared again.

Although the daily chart resistance zone at 82300–82800 is high, yesterday’s breakout above 80K, and the four-hour chart returning to a strong structure, suggests that today we should watch for a pullback and hold in the 79300–80K area. After that, the primary approach is still to go long on dips.

Tonight we have the first important nonfarm payroll data release of September. The day before yesterday’s small nonfarm data was favorable. The nonfarm number today, at current elevated prices, isn’t very suitable for getting positioned in advance. But both the trend and the technical picture are still leaning bullish. Going long on dips is definitely the right approach. If the nonfarm data is weak and rate-hike expectations drop further, 82K might even break through in one push.

If the nonfarm data turns out strong, the market may consolidate at high levels under pressure below 82K, then wait until the September 17th meeting when the policy is maintained unchanged. It would still move upward.

In summary, the main theme right now is still macro tailwinds. The safer way to handle risk assets is to go long—go long. For short-term trading, you can be flexible in your response.

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$BTC $XAU

Reviewing:
After last week’s rally peaked at 81,500 and was swept clean, Waller delivered a slightly hawkish update right after. Over these past two days, the market has pulled back due to rising expectations for a September rate hike. However, BTC has been resilient, and gold’s adjustment has been decisive and smooth—and it has also reached the pullback target I expected.
Main takeaways:
1. A pullback driven by rate-hike bearishness is a good thing. As long as the statement/decision remains unchanged, it’s a positive (I don’t think Waller will hike).
2. BTC’s correction hasn’t ended yet. It is currently in a range-bound adjustment. After the pullback ends, I’ll look for another wave of upside.
3. The first phase of gold’s pullback has ended. I took profit on all short positions above 4,600. Next, I’ll look for a rebound.

There are many pieces of data directly relevant this month, so it’s recommended to anticipate them and be ready to respond at any time.
[Only my personal trading views, not investment advice]
$XAU $BTC

Reviewing:
After last week’s rally peaked at 81,500 and was swept clean, Waller delivered a slightly hawkish update right after. Over these past two days, the market has pulled back due to rising expectations for a September rate hike. However, BTC has been resilient, and gold’s adjustment has been decisive and smooth—and it has also reached the pullback target I expected.
Main takeaways:
1. A pullback driven by rate-hike bearishness is a good thing. As long as the statement/decision remains unchanged, it’s a positive (I don’t think Waller will hike).
2. BTC’s correction hasn’t ended yet. It is currently in a range-bound adjustment. After the pullback ends, I’ll look for another wave of upside.
3. The first phase of gold’s pullback has ended. I took profit on all short positions above 4,600. Next, I’ll look for a rebound.

There are many pieces of data directly relevant this month, so it’s recommended to anticipate them and be ready to respond at any time.
[Only my personal trading views, not investment advice]
$XAU $BTC

Gold 4480 arrives as scheduled
Trading view from 4650 onward

The big target 77400–76800 is also in place
But it initially spikes up to 81500 and then pulls back—here we first look for a rebound

A break of the channel doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a real break!
$BTC
$XAU

This plan has a lot of value!

The “big pie” $BTC dropped back to 77600 and then rose to 81500.

Gold $XAU also moved from 4650 to 4560.

Today’s “big pie” showed a signal that the rally might be weak—after pushing higher it pulled back—but we still go low to buy.

Watch what the host says tonight (Vosh’s speech); the macro information will be more important.

Gold is adjusting at a high level; in the short term, the one-way uptrend should be over.

It’s also getting close to the recent high we saw around 4770–4840.

So the long-term long plan will be paused for now—let’s wait for the pullback.

The road is long, but if the direction is right, you won’t be afraid!

Let’s talk about the trading plan:
Mainly it’s intraday—the trend is pretty obvious.
That earlier surge came out of nowhere; both the bears and the bulls were caught off guard.
Since July, we’ve been reminding everyone that 57K is the bottom—we’ve kept repeating the idea of favoring longs and buying on dips.
The main direction being bullish is correct; it shouldn’t cause my brothers and sisters who follow me to make a big mistake.

Right now, the short-term market is consolidating at high levels after a rapid surge. This kind of consolidation doesn’t suggest trying to “top-tick.”
If you really want to bet on the downside, then try to go short after each rapid new high—but this also depends on timing.
There are several situations where you can test and make mistakes, but this kind of left-side trading has pros and cons. (No further elaboration.)

Today, my BTC plan is to go long on a pullback around 774–768.

Gold shows an hourly-level reversal. In the near term, shorts are still the main focus; breaking to new highs is the stop-loss.

On the macro side, conditions are currently favorable. There’s no major negative news for now. The short-term negative is providing an opportunity for a pullback—it’s not a “top reversal” opportunity.
The only potential downside risk this week is the Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference for the first time, on Friday.

For the swing trade: if it pulls back to 73K–72K, that would be another chance to get back in on BTC.

[The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice]
$BTC $XAU

The start or turning point of the next market move this week lies in the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole:
The focus is not on whether he emphasizes a dovish or hawkish stance,
but on whether, within the meeting, the Fed might change its inflation strategy to help the government with fiscal needs.
If they would, then it’s a bullish sign and a new restart point.
If they wouldn’t, then the market will see a turning and a pullback.
$BTC
$XAU

The clearest way to recall $XAU

Short selling: see two levels at 4540–4480

Let’s talk about the trading plan:
Mainly it’s intraday—the trend is pretty obvious.
That earlier surge came out of nowhere; both the bears and the bulls were caught off guard.
Since July, we’ve been reminding everyone that 57K is the bottom—we’ve kept repeating the idea of favoring longs and buying on dips.
The main direction being bullish is correct; it shouldn’t cause my brothers and sisters who follow me to make a big mistake.

Right now, the short-term market is consolidating at high levels after a rapid surge. This kind of consolidation doesn’t suggest trying to “top-tick.”
If you really want to bet on the downside, then try to go short after each rapid new high—but this also depends on timing.
There are several situations where you can test and make mistakes, but this kind of left-side trading has pros and cons. (No further elaboration.)

Today, my BTC plan is to go long on a pullback around 774–768.

Gold shows an hourly-level reversal. In the near term, shorts are still the main focus; breaking to new highs is the stop-loss.

On the macro side, conditions are currently favorable. There’s no major negative news for now. The short-term negative is providing an opportunity for a pullback—it’s not a “top reversal” opportunity.
The only potential downside risk this week is the Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference for the first time, on Friday.

For the swing trade: if it pulls back to 73K–72K, that would be another chance to get back in on BTC.

[The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice]
$BTC $XAU