ALERT: Altcoin sell pressure has reached a five-year extreme, with 13 straight months of net spot selling on centralized exchanges and limited signs of institutional accumulation.
Since Q4 2025, BTC has underperformed every major asset class. This has a lot to do with quantum computing concerns and lost coins.
Roughly 3.5–4 million BTC mined in Bitcoin’s early years are considered lost or permanently dormant today, nearly 18% of the total supply. These could potentially re-enter circulation one day.
With quantum computing advancing, older wallets (especially those with exposed public keys) are again being discussed as a long-term vulnerability.
Now compare that with institutional flows.
Since 2020, institutions, ETFs, and corporates have accumulated around 2.5–3 million BTC combined.
The amount institutions have absorbed is in the same range as the coins the market assumes are gone forever.
Even the possibility that part of this dormant supply could re-enter circulation changes forward supply expectations,and that matters for pricing.
If markets believe even a portion of the 3–4 million dormant BTC could return, they start discounting that supply today, which puts downward pressure on price.
But there’s another side.
On-chain data shows 13–14 million BTC have already moved in this cycle, the largest redistribution ever recorded.
Despite that massive sell-side liquidity, Bitcoin did not experience a structural crash. So when the market worries about a potential 3–4 million future overhang, it may be overstating the impact compared to what has already been absorbed.
There’s also a technical reality: quantum risk mainly applies to older wallets with exposed public keys, not the entire network.
Bitcoin is not static. Wallet formats evolve, security standards improve, and quantum-resistant cryptography is already being researched and discussed at the protocol level.
The market is currently balancing two narratives: a theoretical future supply shock versus a system that continues to harden over time.
This may be one key reason Bitcoin has lagged despite strong institutional demand and supportive global liquidity.
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Decried that the serious and constructive talks that took place today led to a "general agreement" between the United States and Iran on a number of principles. Gold ounce, which started the week near $5,000, fell below $4,850.