In this Bitcoin downturn, what really matters isn’t how far the price has fallen, but who is selling—and who has started buying.
On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $487 million.
On October 8, they continued to see net outflows of about $244 million.
By October 9, flows finally turned positive, but net inflows were only about $21.1 million.
What does this tell us?
Selling pressure from institutional investors may have eased somewhat, but one day of modest inflows isn’t enough to prove that the market has reversed.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated, above 5%, and the macro environment is far from easy.
Here are the three levels I’ll be watching:
$80,000: An important psychological level. Watch to see whether it can provide solid support.
$83,000: A level Bitcoin needs to reclaim in the short term.
$85,000–$87,000: The resistance zone overhead.
If Bitcoin regains and holds above $83,000, while ETFs return to sustained net inflows, the market structure may gradually improve.
But if the rebound lacks spot trading volume while leverage in futures keeps rising, we should be alert to another wave of liquidations.
The most important thing right now isn’t guessing where the bottom is, but watching to see whether real buying demand has returned.
Do you think this is a normal correction for Bitcoin, or the start of a larger downturn? #以太坊突破2500USDT
Something has gone wrong with Ledger hardware wallets: crypto assets worth more than $86 million may have been stolen.
The scariest part isn’t losing money. It’s thinking your coins are absolutely safe just because they’re stored in a cold wallet.
Ledger is currently investigating. The issue involves Southeast Asian reseller CryptoBilis, but the exact cause has not yet been determined.
This incident is also a reminder to everyone holding a lot of BTC:
A cold wallet does not mean absolute safety.
If you hold a significant amount of BTC, I recommend taking these precautions seriously.
1. Buy hardware wallets through official channels whenever possible. Don’t choose a device from an unknown source just because it’s cheaper.
2. Generate your recovery phrase yourself on a trusted device. If a wallet comes with a recovery phrase already included, never use it.
3. Never photograph or screenshot your recovery phrase, upload it to cloud storage, or enter it on any website. Whoever gets your recovery phrase may be able to take your coins.
4. Store large amounts of BTC in a dedicated wallet for the long term. Don’t connect it to all kinds of websites every day or sign transactions you don’t understand.
5. When making a transfer, always check the address and amount on your hardware wallet’s screen. Don’t trust only what your computer displays.
And one more thing that’s especially important:
If you suspect your wallet or recovery phrase has been compromised, changing your password won’t help. Neither will factory-resetting the device and continuing to use the old recovery phrase.
Generate a brand-new recovery phrase on a trusted, new device, and transfer your remaining assets to it as soon as possible.
In response to this incident, Ledger has also advised users who recently bought devices from the reseller involved to take precautions.
Every day, we think about how to increase our BTC holdings.
But sometimes, protecting the BTC you’ve already earned matters more than earning even more.
The cruelest thing in crypto isn’t missing out on a bull run.
It’s watching all the coins you worked hard to accumulate for five years disappear overnight.
Bitcoin has rebounded, but ETF funds are flowing out like crazy. Can it break through $84,800? Is a big move coming—a massive bullish candle? October 2026 10#Ledger暂停CryptoBilis销售 #比特币反弹至8.3万美元
Not everyone in the crypto world can be like CZ—financial freedom, a complete family, and a large fortune that needs to be inherited. He had 4 children (as far as is known).
“Bao Er Ye” is also financially free. As for those with assets who are action-takers, they just have 11 children—and still want to keep having more.
These people all have the mindset of the Chinese: in the past, emperors’ palaces and noble families all had to have many children. Even now, that hasn’t changed. Take the gambling king, or the founder of Wahaha—no matter what their children turn out like, they’re all inheritors of seemingly endless wealth. They just need to be born, and they’ll compete among themselves.
Wealth is passed down through having babies.
If you don’t even have a few coins in your pocket, survival is already a problem. You should study how to have kids—produce a whole bunch. But you can’t even get full on meals. It’s like someone with their forehead jammed into a bowl of excrement. First, work and grind to get the money up—then have children.
So that their family line can be passed down, and to ensure that thousands of years from now, outstanding genes are still carried forward.
What to do next
Accumulate enough Bitcoin for what you need.
As for how to accumulate Bitcoin, I’ll explain in the next episode.
Bitcoin has fallen to around $83,000, and this pullback may not be so simple.
On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $485 million, after net inflows of $119 million the day before.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields remain high, the dollar is strengthening, and Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through $87,000.
I’m focused on three key levels now:
Around $82,000: Can it form solid short-term support?
Around $85,000: Can a rebound regain its footing?
Around $87,000: Can it truly break through the previous resistance?
I think the most important thing now isn’t trying to call the bottom, but watching whether ETF flows turn positive again and whether leverage has been sufficiently flushed out.
If spot buying doesn’t return, a rally driven solely by futures trading will have a hard time holding steady.
Do you think this is a normal correction for Bitcoin, or the start of another downturn? #以太坊现货ETF单日净流出1.61亿美元
But what I’m most focused on today isn’t actually BTC.
Brent crude oil is nearing $109. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%. The probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points next week has already risen to over 70%.
Tonight, there’s also CPI.
This may be one of the toughest macro combinations for BTC this year so far.
Many people are asking me now:
Is $76,000 the bottom? Can we still buy the dip? Will it keep falling?
My answer is still the same:
I don’t know.
But I know what I should do.
If the CPI stays hot and BTC gets hit again, I must still have cash. If the CPI comes in below expectations and the market abruptly reverses, I must still have BTC. If the market keeps churning around the mid-$70,000s, I will keep looking for Alpha that can increase my BTC holdings.
Lately, I’m caring less about the idea of “perfectly catching the bottom.”
Because what truly makes my wealth grow won’t be buying at the exact lowest point in some miracle moment.
It’s what happens after 10 or 20 rounds of panic:
When others get liquidated off leverage, others run out of cash, and others are too afraid to buy,
I’m still at the table.
And my BTC holdings are more than in the previous cycle.
Calling the bottom is about attention. Surviving the cycle is what produces profit. #比特币金叉确认
Bitcoin is about to tank, and this isn't just FUD! Are we looking at a bottom entry point for quality crypto assets in the US stock market? 2026-06-01 #比特币 #美股超话
What to watch out for now (in this 2026 cycle) If you recently noticed: BNB OKB BGB HTX ecosystem tokens clearly outperforming BTC You need to keep an eye on a few indicators: Scenario 1 BTC is sideways Exchange tokens are rising Volume isn’t increasing This is a red flag. Explanation: It's just existing funds flipping the exchange concept. Scenario 2 BTC hits new highs Exchange tokens follow suit Volume explodes This signals a healthy bull market. Scenario 3 Exchange tokens are skyrocketing MEMEs are going wild BTC is stagnant This is the phase I’m most wary of. Historically, near market tops, we see: Beta rising, Alpha dropping. Everyone starts chasing the trashiest assets. #平台币
Next up, the most likely happenings in the crypto space. For instance: OTC crackdowns Restrictions on U cards Tightening of withdrawals
Right now, it’s best to cash out some USDT, convert it to RMB, and set aside living expenses for the next year and a half, or else you might end up making hasty moves in a panic. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macaron ##以太坊质押比率创历史新高
Bitcoin would have dropped by now if it were going to, staying above 90,000 USD for a long time, currently building up a major move with significant upside, be cautious of risks, a single surge could push it above 100,000 USD #美国非农数据低于预期 #Solana涨势分析