Bluechip

🚨 THE ALPHA BOARD – FOUNDERS ACCESS 🚨

After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.

What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.

Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.

Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community

This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves

Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available

Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days

The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.

The Alpha Board link

#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare

$BTC squiggles

Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.

Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.

This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.

Most traders lose money
That is not an opinion. It is what studies across different countries and markets consistently show

Brazil
Study: Day Trading for a Living?
Year: 2020
Result: 97% of day traders who persisted for more than 300 trading days lost money

Taiwan
Study:The Cross Section of Speculator Skill: Evidence from Day Trading
Year:2014
Result:fewer than 1% showed persistent skill and positive abnormal returns after costs

Europe
ESMA study on CFDs
Year:2018
Result: between 74% and 89% of retail accounts lost money

India
SEBI study on derivatives
Year:2024
Result:91.1% of individual futures and options traders lost money

Crypto is no different
BIS Bank for International Settlements
Study: Crypto Trading and Bitcoin Prices: Evidence from a New Database of Retail Adoption
Year: 2022/2023

The BIS analyzed crypto adoption across 95 countries and estimated that roughly 73% to 81% of retail investors likely lost money on their $BTC investments

It also found a very common retail behavior: new users tend to enter after prices have already moved higher

In other words they buy after the move not before it

The pattern became even clearer during events such as Terra/Luna and FTX

While larger and more sophisticated investors were selling smaller retail investors were buying

That is the key point
Most traders start in the wrong place

They start with a narrative then emotion then urgency and only after that try to justify the trade

A better process is the opposite:

Data → Context → Probability → Risk → Execution → Trade
The trade should be the final decision, not the first one

The small fraction of traders who survive and remain consistently profitable do not treat the market as a personal opinion

They adapt when the data changes, understand context, think in probabilities, manage risk.Only then do they execute

If you keep trying to force the market to fit your narrative you will probably never become a consistently profitable trader
If you learn to adapt your decisions to what the data is actually showing, that is where a real edge begins 🤝

$BTC
potential liquidations: high leverage (20x and higher).

Easy range to rekt them all during a low-volume weekend.

$BTC 1H TPO Market Profile.
Value is rising in a step-like pattern, with a clear bullish structure.

Current Price: $65,046.0
POC Migration: $62.3K ➔ $63.1K ➔ $63.7K ➔ $64.4K ➔ $64.9K
Key Acceptance Zone: $64,800 - $65,000

Sufficient turnover; monitor for the latest stabilization situation.

Elon Musk has lost $513 billion in net worth in the last 53 days.

That is almost equal to the combined net worth of Larry Page and Jeff Bezos.
$SPCXB

$BTC
Regardless of whether measured from cycle bottom-to-bottom (blue), or from cycle top-to-bottom (yellow)

the date for the next bottom, IF it holds true again, will be around Oct 6, 2026.

BOTH measurements line up around Oct 6, 2026.

Fascinating, if nothing else.

Note that the pattern does not hold prior to 2015.

This is all just an observation.

Solana’s Open Interest is showing an important divergence.

$SOL Open Interest currently stands at approximately $4.04B, with an annual change of -$3.66B. This means USD denominated Open Interest has fallen by roughly 47.5% over the past year.

But when we measure it in SOL, the picture changes completely.

Open Interest is now around 52.87M SOL, with a positive annual change of +9.38M SOL, representing growth of approximately 21.6%.

In other words, while the dollar value of open positions has fallen sharply, the amount of SOL represented in those positions has actually increased.

This distinction matters.

The decline in USD Open Interest has been amplified by SOL’s own price depreciation. At first glance, it may look like the market has gone through a major deleveraging event, but Coin denominated Open Interest shows that speculative exposure remains elevated.

USD OI: $4.04B
USD OI YoY: -$3.66B
SOL OI: 52.87M SOL
SOL OI YoY: +9.38M SOL

Less dollar value, but more SOL exposure.

This shows that leverage and positioning remain highly relevant for Solana, leaving the derivatives market with substantial fuel for future volatility.

Open Interest alone does not tell us whether the next squeeze will hit Longs or Shorts, but it clearly shows that speculation in SOL has not disappeared with the price decline.👇

$57,000 and below still concerns me.

Before $BTC formed its 2022 bottom, the market went through one final major liquidation event.

Now we are once again seeing a clear dominance of unliquidated longs over shorts.

These levels change constantly, so I strongly recommend setting alerts around the major liquidation zones and receiving notifications via Telegram or email.

If another large liquidation event comes, it could create one of the most interesting opportunities to position.

Panic and forced liquidations are often where the strongest accumulation zones begin to form.

If you think the $BTC bottom has already happened…
you would be going against almost everything on this chart.These are some of the most powerful Valuation Models we have:

• Long-Term Holder Realized Price
• Structural Market Lower Band
• True Market Mean Price
• Balanced Price
• Delta Price
• Active Realized Price
• CVDD and several other on-chain cost bases

Right now, price is still trading above most of these key levels, but the structure shows we are far from the extreme undervaluation zones that historically marked major cycle bottoms.On-chain cost basis + structural support + long-term holder levels

→ these are the metrics that actually matter when the noise gets loud.What do you see when you look at this chart?

1 week later...

$ABCL.US surges from $4.99 to $7.94, a 59% increase.

ABCL635 Phase 2 results pushed forward from "some time in September" to August 10th (this Monday).

The FOMO is palpable.

$BTC Derivatives Are Coiled.

BTC: $64.7K

• Gamma flip: $63.1K
• Call concentration: $70K

The setup is unusual:
Fear is expensive.
Leverage is absent.
Speculation is muted.

Meanwhile, 73.6% of current gross gamma is scheduled to expire by September 25 if it is not replaced.

That means a large part of today’s derivatives structure is temporary.

$BTC is compressed, hedged, and under-owned.

That is the kind of setup where upside can surprise.

Bitcoin Dominance Minus Stablecoins

This is a better way to view $BTC Dominance because it subtracts the noise of stablecoins.

Unlike BTC.D, this chart more accurately shows the clear, unbroken uptrend of BTC dominance.

There has been no breakdown yet.

True Altseason, like we experienced in 2021, will most likely follow looser monetary conditions (a lower Fed Funds Rate [interest rates], as one key qualifier). Risky assets need dovish conditions. Altcoins are highest on the risk curve.

$BTC high leverage shorts has been liquidated. 🎣

$BTC potential liquidations: high leverage (20x and higher).

Very tight range. Easy to rekt them all.b🎣

Long-Term Holders are showing signs of fear.

The daily Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Change has remained deeply negative, with outflows ranging from roughly 20K to 50K $BTC per day over the last 8 days.

This means coins that were previously held by Long-Term Holders are increasingly leaving this cohort.

Historically, periods of strong pressure and fear among Long-Term Holders have also appeared near important Bitcoin bottoms.

It does not confirm a bottom by itself, but it is exactly the kind of behavior I want to watch when the market is under extreme pressure.

Fear is rising.

And sometimes, that is where opportunity begins.

287% growth.
That's how much $IONQ.US 's revenue increased in one quarter versus the same period last year.
On the same day it reported earnings, the company also signed a memorandum of understanding with Anduril, one of America's fastest-growing defense technology firms, to develop quantum computing solutions for defense and national security.
The partnership also targets government and commercial contracts in strategic sectors.
But that wasn't the only announcement.
During the same week, IonQ:
• Signed another MoU with Sandia National Laboratories.
• Opened a new Quantum Innovation Center in Tennessee.
• Acquired Nexus Photonics to expand photonics manufacturing.
• Completed its acquisition of SkyWater Technology, bringing semiconductor manufacturing in-house.
These moves make IonQ the first fully vertically integrated quantum computing platform, controlling everything from chip design to manufacturing.
The bigger story is that quantum computing is moving beyond research labs and into national defense budgets.
Anduril isn't a traditional defense contractor. It's one of the fastest-growing defense technology companies, building autonomous systems and military software at unprecedented speed.
A partnership between an emerging quantum leader and a company reshaping modern defense sends a clear signal:
Quantum computing is becoming a strategic military technology, not just a scientific breakthrough.
The financials support that narrative:
• $80.1M in revenue, the fifth consecutive record quarter.
• Remaining performance obligations up 297% YoY.
• Over $3B in cash, providing significant funding for long-term expansion.
While many quantum companies are still selling future potential, IonQ is building a complete ecosystem from chips to software, supported by real contracts with some of the world's biggest defense and government customers.

Bitcoin Is Sitting on Its Structural Floor

$BTC is trading at $64.4k.

My model’s key levels:

• Structural base: $60.5K
• 200-week SMA: $63,543
• Historical P10 boundary: $64.8K
• Adoption spine: $72.7K
• Long-term scaling trend: $137K

Bitcoin is currently:

• 7% above its structural base
• 11% below its adoption spine
• 53% below its scaling trend
• In the 1st-percentile deep-value zone

The long-term structure is still rising.

It is sitting near its historical structural floor.

Strong Convexity.

Bitcoin’s Pressure Is Building Below $70K

$BTC is trading inside a clearly defined derivatives range:

• Spot: $64,400
• Gamma flip: $62,481
• Put wall: $60,000
• Call wall: $70,000

The key level is $70K.

A decisive break above it could force dealers to buy into a rising market, accelerating the move.

Until then, Bitcoin remains compressed between $60K support and $70K resistance.

The longer the pressure builds, the more powerful the eventual release could be.

Above $70K, the market structure turns increasingly bullish.