Bluechip
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Bluechip
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🚨 THE ALPHA BOARD – FOUNDERS ACCESS 🚨
After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.
The Alpha Board link
#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare
After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture.
The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding.
Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get:
• Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro)
• Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios
• Smart money flow breakdowns
• Clear market structure insights
• Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group.
This is where you build a real edge.
If you’re tired of:
- following the crowd
- entering too late
- not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you.
Founder one-time access: $39
Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly
This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest.
It rewards the most prepared.
The Alpha Board link
#BTC #crypto #trading #smartmoney #BinanceSquare
PINNED
$BTC squiggles
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
$BTC Breakout Could Feed on Itself
Under current derivatives positioning:
−5% BTC → ~$137M dealer selling
+5% BTC → ~$498M dealer buying
That is asymmetry.
If Bitcoin breaks higher, dealer hedging could accelerate the move instead of fighting it.
Above $65K, derivatives may become fuel.
Under current derivatives positioning:
−5% BTC → ~$137M dealer selling
+5% BTC → ~$498M dealer buying
That is asymmetry.
If Bitcoin breaks higher, dealer hedging could accelerate the move instead of fighting it.
Above $65K, derivatives may become fuel.
Take note of how long $BTC *could* remain below the 200-week moving average:
Bluechip
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Last cycle , $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200 week moving average
This cycle ( so far ), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks
Many point to the 200 week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone
The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly
Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average
Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200 week MA
Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess)
Bear market patience is a marathon not a sprint
This cycle ( so far ), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks
Many point to the 200 week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone
The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly
Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average
Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200 week MA
Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess)
Bear market patience is a marathon not a sprint
$BTC Open Interest dropped while price moved higher earlier on August 17.
This suggests a period of deleveraging, potentially driven by short covering and forced liquidations.
Now, Open Interest and price are moving higher together again, indicating that new leveraged positions are entering the market.
This suggests a period of deleveraging, potentially driven by short covering and forced liquidations.
Now, Open Interest and price are moving higher together again, indicating that new leveraged positions are entering the market.
Bluechip
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$BTC Leverage Remains in a Neutral Zone
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
$BTC Leverage Remains in a Neutral Zone
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
There are no signs of excessive leverage in the market right now.
In fact, Bitcoin is currently in a neutral zone according to the Leverage Pressure Zone, which analyzes data from 30 exchanges and compares derivatives positioning with onchain behavior.
A neutral reading suggests a more stable market structure, especially before periods of elevated leverage, which are often followed by stronger volatility and forced liquidations.
$BTC has already entered a region historically associated with lower entry risk and strong long-term asymmetry.
However, according to the Sharpe Ratio, this phase still requires significant resilience, as current returns remain poor relative to the level of volatility being assumed. Historically, though, negative extremes like the current one have marked regions where the risk-reward asymmetry for long-term investors began to become significantly more attractive.
However, according to the Sharpe Ratio, this phase still requires significant resilience, as current returns remain poor relative to the level of volatility being assumed. Historically, though, negative extremes like the current one have marked regions where the risk-reward asymmetry for long-term investors began to become significantly more attractive.
17/08/2026 $BTC Update
BTC Outlook: Sharp dump from 65k3 resistance, now holding at 62.5k support. Expecting consolidation inside the 62k5 - 63344 range. A break on either side will set the next local trend. Higher timeframe bias remains Bearish
- If BTC breaks 63344.66 resistance > Potential Target
63713.49 - 63856.60 or 64239.71 - 64365.24 before rejection to 61k - 60k
- If BTC breaks 62303.87 Support -> Expect dump to 61406.89 - 60150.87
฿ BTC.D Outlook: tested the 59.56% resistance and corrected as expected. It could either continue dumping toward lower support levels or retest the 59.56% barrier once more
- If breaks 59.56% Resistance -> Expect pump to 59.97%
- 60.91% - 61.42%
- If breaks 58.59% Support -> Potential dump to 58.31%
- 58.14% - 57.93% then pumpback
Macro trend is still down. Watch out for Monday fakeouts - wait for clean range breaks to trade the continuation
A Monday US Session often brings fakeouts and liquidity sweeps on both sides. Stay sharp!
BTC Outlook: Sharp dump from 65k3 resistance, now holding at 62.5k support. Expecting consolidation inside the 62k5 - 63344 range. A break on either side will set the next local trend. Higher timeframe bias remains Bearish
- If BTC breaks 63344.66 resistance > Potential Target
63713.49 - 63856.60 or 64239.71 - 64365.24 before rejection to 61k - 60k
- If BTC breaks 62303.87 Support -> Expect dump to 61406.89 - 60150.87
฿ BTC.D Outlook: tested the 59.56% resistance and corrected as expected. It could either continue dumping toward lower support levels or retest the 59.56% barrier once more
- If breaks 59.56% Resistance -> Expect pump to 59.97%
- 60.91% - 61.42%
- If breaks 58.59% Support -> Potential dump to 58.31%
- 58.14% - 57.93% then pumpback
Macro trend is still down. Watch out for Monday fakeouts - wait for clean range breaks to trade the continuation
A Monday US Session often brings fakeouts and liquidity sweeps on both sides. Stay sharp!
$BTC is showing a clear divergence:
Open Interest remains elevated near $22.4B while price consolidates in a tight range. Spot CVD is recovering from negative levels.
If spot demand keeps strengthening, this compression could resolve into a sharp move higher
Open Interest remains elevated near $22.4B while price consolidates in a tight range. Spot CVD is recovering from negative levels.
If spot demand keeps strengthening, this compression could resolve into a sharp move higher
Disputed
AI Is Making Alpha Scarcer and True Scarcity More Valuable
Passive assets: ~$15T
Active assets: ~$8T
Capital is moving.
As information becomes abundant and markets more efficient, stock-picking alpha gets competed away.
The edge is shifting from picking stocks to choosing what scarce assets to own.
$GOOGL.US $NVDAB
Passive assets: ~$15T
Active assets: ~$8T
Capital is moving.
As information becomes abundant and markets more efficient, stock-picking alpha gets competed away.
The edge is shifting from picking stocks to choosing what scarce assets to own.
$GOOGL.US $NVDAB
NVDAB-0.84%
GOOGLUS-0.87%
If $BTC loses $62.3k, it's over.
If that happens, BTC will almost certainly revisit cycle lows, or go even lower.
Why? It would simultaneously be:
- A break down below the right shoulder of the larger iH&S (image 1), thus invalidating the bottom pattern, AND
- A break down below the smaller H&S (image 2).
Credit:
Image 1 is from @TechCharts
If that happens, BTC will almost certainly revisit cycle lows, or go even lower.
Why? It would simultaneously be:
- A break down below the right shoulder of the larger iH&S (image 1), thus invalidating the bottom pattern, AND
- A break down below the smaller H&S (image 2).
Credit:
Image 1 is from @TechCharts
Bluechip
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$BTC Looks like it wants to break lower to me. Lower highs since June 14 and sitting on the edge of a head-and-shoulders pattern that could break down. I think it’s only a matter of time.
The $BTC Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Mean Price is approaching a region that deserves close attention.
This model is centered on the Market Mean Price and applies Fibonacci-proportional bands above and below it, creating structural zones of expansion and mean reversion. Historically, the upper bands have been associated with overheated conditions, while the lower bands have marked value zones and early accumulation phases.
And it is precisely in these blue regions that some of the best buying opportunities and major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin have appeared.
So far, BTC has not reached any of these regions yet.
But it would only take a bit more downside for that to happen if price keeps falling.
This is one of those metrics where keeping your alerts turned on makes a lot of sense.
This model is centered on the Market Mean Price and applies Fibonacci-proportional bands above and below it, creating structural zones of expansion and mean reversion. Historically, the upper bands have been associated with overheated conditions, while the lower bands have marked value zones and early accumulation phases.
And it is precisely in these blue regions that some of the best buying opportunities and major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin have appeared.
So far, BTC has not reached any of these regions yet.
But it would only take a bit more downside for that to happen if price keeps falling.
This is one of those metrics where keeping your alerts turned on makes a lot of sense.
The nearest liquidation cluster on $BTC is a short position at $63,250 - 0.41% above spot, carrying $328M.
Yesterday the nearest cluster was a long at $61,432, 3.26% below. The structure inverted in 24 hours.
Below spot the map is unchanged: 12 long clusters between 6.2% and 17.5% down, the largest holding $939M at $58,504. Above spot there is that one cluster, and then nothing until 34%.
Yesterday the nearest cluster was a long at $61,432, 3.26% below. The structure inverted in 24 hours.
Below spot the map is unchanged: 12 long clusters between 6.2% and 17.5% down, the largest holding $939M at $58,504. Above spot there is that one cluster, and then nothing until 34%.
Verified
S&P500 and $BTC
Could see it playing out like this.
The bull pennant breakout's target is the height of its flag pole (green arrow). This target is around 8,600 (that little gray box at the top).
This could time with the Fed finally raising Rates (The next FOMC meeting is September 15–16, 2026), which may be around the local top of the market (my guess as to how it may play out).
As far as Bitcoin goes, that red arrow is where the stock market works *against* $BTC , and BTC has already been having a difficult time even while the stock market has been pumping. This red arrow period is where we may see our final BTC leg down.
$SPYB
Could see it playing out like this.
The bull pennant breakout's target is the height of its flag pole (green arrow). This target is around 8,600 (that little gray box at the top).
This could time with the Fed finally raising Rates (The next FOMC meeting is September 15–16, 2026), which may be around the local top of the market (my guess as to how it may play out).
As far as Bitcoin goes, that red arrow is where the stock market works *against* $BTC , and BTC has already been having a difficult time even while the stock market has been pumping. This red arrow period is where we may see our final BTC leg down.
$SPYB
$SPCXB
Looks like it could have more downside. Recent clean rejection from the underside retest of key level ~149.
Must break above this level to be bullish.
We have some share unlocks coming (see below), which probably isn't bullish.
Looks like it could have more downside. Recent clean rejection from the underside retest of key level ~149.
Must break above this level to be bullish.
We have some share unlocks coming (see below), which probably isn't bullish.
Bluechip
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Here's what the $SPCX
unlock schedule looks like for the 95% of the shares that are currently frozen:
IPO (June 12, 2026): Only ~4–5% public float initially available.
First major unlock (~Aug 11, after Q2 earnings): Up to 20% of eligible locked shares.
Rolling 7% releases every ~15 days from late August through late October.
Biggest single tranche (~Nov 9, after Q3 earnings): +28%.
Full unlock for eligible shares by ~December 9, 2026 (180 days post-IPO).
Performance bonus: An extra +10% (total 30% after Q2) is possible if the stock stays ≥30% above the $135 IPO price.
ElonMusk & certain major investors: Separate 366-day lockup (unlocks around mid-June 2027). They do not get any of the early releases shown above.
unlock schedule looks like for the 95% of the shares that are currently frozen:
IPO (June 12, 2026): Only ~4–5% public float initially available.
First major unlock (~Aug 11, after Q2 earnings): Up to 20% of eligible locked shares.
Rolling 7% releases every ~15 days from late August through late October.
Biggest single tranche (~Nov 9, after Q3 earnings): +28%.
Full unlock for eligible shares by ~December 9, 2026 (180 days post-IPO).
Performance bonus: An extra +10% (total 30% after Q2) is possible if the stock stays ≥30% above the $135 IPO price.
ElonMusk & certain major investors: Separate 366-day lockup (unlocks around mid-June 2027). They do not get any of the early releases shown above.
Dogecoin is currently at one of the most extreme levels ever observed in its history when looking at the CVDD Channel.
$DOGE has rarely traded below the lower band of the channel, a region that has historically marked periods of extreme onchain undervaluation.
What makes this especially interesting is what happened next.
In every highlighted instance on the chart where price reached or broke below this extreme region, Dogecoin experienced strong rallies in the following months.
Today, DOGE is back in that same zone.
This does not mean the bottom is confirmed or that price cannot move lower.
But based strictly on the historical behavior of the CVDD Channel, Dogecoin is once again in a region that deserves close attention.
Historically, buying DOGE in these extreme zones has offered a very different risk to reward profile compared with buying during periods of market euphoria.
The market may be focused on price.
Onchain analysis is focused on where we are in the cycle.
$DOGE has rarely traded below the lower band of the channel, a region that has historically marked periods of extreme onchain undervaluation.
What makes this especially interesting is what happened next.
In every highlighted instance on the chart where price reached or broke below this extreme region, Dogecoin experienced strong rallies in the following months.
Today, DOGE is back in that same zone.
This does not mean the bottom is confirmed or that price cannot move lower.
But based strictly on the historical behavior of the CVDD Channel, Dogecoin is once again in a region that deserves close attention.
Historically, buying DOGE in these extreme zones has offered a very different risk to reward profile compared with buying during periods of market euphoria.
The market may be focused on price.
Onchain analysis is focused on where we are in the cycle.
$XMR looking better and pushing into peak of weekly W
Bluechip
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Monero ($XMR ) has been rising over the past few days, and one of the main reasons was the large buildup of unliquidated short positions.
More recently, major short liquidation pools were hit, signaling that many traders were caught on the wrong side of the market while betting against XMR.
More recently, major short liquidation pools were hit, signaling that many traders were caught on the wrong side of the market while betting against XMR.
$BTC
Late Bear Market Signals Are Flashing 🐻
Multiple indicators suggest Bitcoin is entering the late stages of a bear market, but it is still too early to call a bottom.
I want to see the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator 30DMA cross above the 365DMA first.
Late Bear Market Signals Are Flashing 🐻
Multiple indicators suggest Bitcoin is entering the late stages of a bear market, but it is still too early to call a bottom.
I want to see the CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator 30DMA cross above the 365DMA first.
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