TVBee
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Beware, signs of a pullback in the US stock market
The S&P monthly RSI has entered the overbought zone (72.94), and in the past, such conditions have indeed resulted in varying degrees of pullbacks.
If the US stock market does not pull back, it could resemble the pattern of 2000.
In August 2000, the S&P was at a high, but the RSI was already in a downward channel, and there was a clear monthly RSI overbought condition at that time, followed by a painful decline in the US stock market:
It fell for 2 years, with the RSI dropping into the oversold zone. It wasn't until 2007 that the S&P returned to the highs of 2000.
Therefore, if the US stock market pulls back next, it could actually be a good thing, reflecting healthy fluctuations in the market.
According to Teacher Bo Bo's chart, the S&P will pull back to near the previous high, around 6100, which provides approximately a 10% pullback space.
If the US stock market pulls back, it is uncertain whether cryptocurrencies will continue to decline alongside.
The S&P monthly RSI has entered the overbought zone (72.94), and in the past, such conditions have indeed resulted in varying degrees of pullbacks.
If the US stock market does not pull back, it could resemble the pattern of 2000.
In August 2000, the S&P was at a high, but the RSI was already in a downward channel, and there was a clear monthly RSI overbought condition at that time, followed by a painful decline in the US stock market:
It fell for 2 years, with the RSI dropping into the oversold zone. It wasn't until 2007 that the S&P returned to the highs of 2000.
Therefore, if the US stock market pulls back next, it could actually be a good thing, reflecting healthy fluctuations in the market.
According to Teacher Bo Bo's chart, the S&P will pull back to near the previous high, around 6100, which provides approximately a 10% pullback space.
If the US stock market pulls back, it is uncertain whether cryptocurrencies will continue to decline alongside.
Why do we say that the USD1 activity on Binance will not stop in the short term?
It is well known that USDC is issued by Circle and Coinbase in collaboration.
However, Bitfinex and USDT are under the same parent company, iFinex, which many may have forgotten.
Binance originally had BUSD, but it was delisted for regulatory reasons.
USD1 and Binance completely belong to different entities, and the background of USD1 is Trump, which means the risk is lower. USD1 fills in the strategic puzzle of "one school, one chain, one stablecoin" for Binance.
On the other hand, USD1, which is under Future Finance (WLFI), will also find it very difficult to enter major American exchanges like Coinbase or Bitfinex that already have strategic stablecoins. As the world's leading exchange, Binance also provides the greatest space for the market expansion of USD1.
Therefore, Binance + USD1 is a large-scale strategy that moves in both directions!
Never underestimate the prospects of USD1!
It is well known that USDC is issued by Circle and Coinbase in collaboration.
However, Bitfinex and USDT are under the same parent company, iFinex, which many may have forgotten.
Binance originally had BUSD, but it was delisted for regulatory reasons.
USD1 and Binance completely belong to different entities, and the background of USD1 is Trump, which means the risk is lower. USD1 fills in the strategic puzzle of "one school, one chain, one stablecoin" for Binance.
On the other hand, USD1, which is under Future Finance (WLFI), will also find it very difficult to enter major American exchanges like Coinbase or Bitfinex that already have strategic stablecoins. As the world's leading exchange, Binance also provides the greatest space for the market expansion of USD1.
Therefore, Binance + USD1 is a large-scale strategy that moves in both directions!
Never underestimate the prospects of USD1!
TVBee
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I knew it, I knew it, the USD1 + Binance event won't stop in the short term!
I mentioned during the live broadcast at Binance Square that there will be more activities related to USD1 and Binance, and it won't be just for a short time!
The new event has indeed arrived.
The new event reward is 235 million WLFI, calculated at 0.1 (current price 0.10005), making the total reward worth 23.5 million USD. The event runs from February 20 to March 20 for a total of 4 weeks. The average per week is 587.5 USD.
Compared to the previous weekly value of 10 million USD in WLFI, the expected annualized return is currently 13.59%. The new event rewards are roughly halved, and theoretically, the participation of USD1 will be slightly less, which should yield an annualized return of 7%.
This yield rate is also quite considerable.
I mentioned during the live broadcast at Binance Square that there will be more activities related to USD1 and Binance, and it won't be just for a short time!
The new event has indeed arrived.
The new event reward is 235 million WLFI, calculated at 0.1 (current price 0.10005), making the total reward worth 23.5 million USD. The event runs from February 20 to March 20 for a total of 4 weeks. The average per week is 587.5 USD.
Compared to the previous weekly value of 10 million USD in WLFI, the expected annualized return is currently 13.59%. The new event rewards are roughly halved, and theoretically, the participation of USD1 will be slightly less, which should yield an annualized return of 7%.
This yield rate is also quite considerable.
I knew it, I knew it, the USD1 + Binance event won't stop in the short term!
I mentioned during the live broadcast at Binance Square that there will be more activities related to USD1 and Binance, and it won't be just for a short time!
The new event has indeed arrived.
The new event reward is 235 million WLFI, calculated at 0.1 (current price 0.10005), making the total reward worth 23.5 million USD. The event runs from February 20 to March 20 for a total of 4 weeks. The average per week is 587.5 USD.
Compared to the previous weekly value of 10 million USD in WLFI, the expected annualized return is currently 13.59%. The new event rewards are roughly halved, and theoretically, the participation of USD1 will be slightly less, which should yield an annualized return of 7%.
This yield rate is also quite considerable.
I mentioned during the live broadcast at Binance Square that there will be more activities related to USD1 and Binance, and it won't be just for a short time!
The new event has indeed arrived.
The new event reward is 235 million WLFI, calculated at 0.1 (current price 0.10005), making the total reward worth 23.5 million USD. The event runs from February 20 to March 20 for a total of 4 weeks. The average per week is 587.5 USD.
Compared to the previous weekly value of 10 million USD in WLFI, the expected annualized return is currently 13.59%. The new event rewards are roughly halved, and theoretically, the participation of USD1 will be slightly less, which should yield an annualized return of 7%.
This yield rate is also quite considerable.
TVBee
·
--
Future Finance (WLFI) airdrops, there’s always one that suits you!
WLFI+USD1 has continuously launched 4 major events in the Binance ecosystem, which can be said that everyone can participate and everyone has the opportunity to make money.
┈┈➤ First type of event: Financial Management
In this type of event, users only need to hold USD1, transfer it to financial management, or hold USD1 in the contract account to participate.
The 1st event with capital preservation and profit has ended, with an annualized return rate of up to 20%.
The 2nd event is currently ongoing, it has already been 2 weeks since it ended, and there’s less than 2 weeks left, with an estimated annualized return rate of around 15%.
This type of event is suitable for friends with large capital, exchange it for USD1, and then transfer it to the U-denominated contract account to earn passively.
┈┈➤ Second type of event: Trading
Using USD1 to participate in designated trading pairs can earn points. Based on the points, rewards can be shared.
This type of event is suitable for friends with time, you can look for stable market conditions, earn points, and share WLFI.
┈┈➤ Third type of event: Live Broadcast
Live broadcasts related to WLFI USD1 are conducted in Binance Square, @mscryptojiayi plus Goddess, rewards will be given based on the content of the live broadcast and the number of audience.
Brother Bee just received a reward of 230USD1, thanks to Goddess Jia.
直播：拆解总统的加密蓝图 WLFI+USD1
Influential and expressive friends can give it a try.
Brother Bee kindly reminds you to prepare a PPT with care, conduct a well-organized and high-quality live broadcast, and pair it with some red envelopes for better effects.
WLFI+USD1 has continuously launched 4 major events in the Binance ecosystem, which can be said that everyone can participate and everyone has the opportunity to make money.
┈┈➤ First type of event: Financial Management
In this type of event, users only need to hold USD1, transfer it to financial management, or hold USD1 in the contract account to participate.
The 1st event with capital preservation and profit has ended, with an annualized return rate of up to 20%.
The 2nd event is currently ongoing, it has already been 2 weeks since it ended, and there’s less than 2 weeks left, with an estimated annualized return rate of around 15%.
This type of event is suitable for friends with large capital, exchange it for USD1, and then transfer it to the U-denominated contract account to earn passively.
┈┈➤ Second type of event: Trading
Using USD1 to participate in designated trading pairs can earn points. Based on the points, rewards can be shared.
This type of event is suitable for friends with time, you can look for stable market conditions, earn points, and share WLFI.
┈┈➤ Third type of event: Live Broadcast
Live broadcasts related to WLFI USD1 are conducted in Binance Square, @mscryptojiayi plus Goddess, rewards will be given based on the content of the live broadcast and the number of audience.
Brother Bee just received a reward of 230USD1, thanks to Goddess Jia.
直播：拆解总统的加密蓝图 WLFI+USD1
Influential and expressive friends can give it a try.
Brother Bee kindly reminds you to prepare a PPT with care, conduct a well-organized and high-quality live broadcast, and pair it with some red envelopes for better effects.
Little-known Facts: The Tai Sui offense is far more than just the Birth Year! A table reveals the fortunes and misfortunes of the 12 zodiac signs over the years, helping you avoid risks and seize good luck!
Let's take a look at your zodiac sign, how your fortune will be in the coming years:
Most of the information about the Tai Sui offense online is only from the past two years, and many articles have some errors regarding the specific calculations of the Tai Sui offense.
Brother Bee has carefully studied and summarized the calculations of the Tai Sui offense and the harmonious Tai Sui, illustrated with pictures and text, and listed the fortune table for the 12 zodiac signs over 12 years. Here’s a brief explanation:
➤ Tai Sui offense
The Tai Sui offense actually includes the Value Tai Sui, the Conflict Tai Sui, the Punishing Tai Sui, the Harming Tai Sui, and the Breaking Tai Sui.
❚ Value Tai Sui and Conflict Tai Sui
The most significant impacts are from the Value Tai Sui and the Conflict Tai Sui.
Value Tai Sui (Birth Year) is considered to have significant fluctuations in fortune, generally believed to have the greatest negative impact.
Most of the information about the Tai Sui offense online is only from the past two years, and many articles have some errors regarding the specific calculations of the Tai Sui offense.
Brother Bee has carefully studied and summarized the calculations of the Tai Sui offense and the harmonious Tai Sui, illustrated with pictures and text, and listed the fortune table for the 12 zodiac signs over 12 years. Here’s a brief explanation:
➤ Tai Sui offense
The Tai Sui offense actually includes the Value Tai Sui, the Conflict Tai Sui, the Punishing Tai Sui, the Harming Tai Sui, and the Breaking Tai Sui.
❚ Value Tai Sui and Conflict Tai Sui
The most significant impacts are from the Value Tai Sui and the Conflict Tai Sui.
Value Tai Sui (Birth Year) is considered to have significant fluctuations in fortune, generally believed to have the greatest negative impact.
This round's BTC peak was almost there. Is it really an illusion? And is 60,000 BTC the bottom??
Everyone is saying that this round's BTC peak did not meet expectations. Is this really a market illusion?
Bitcoin MVRV may provide the answer.
┈┈➤ A brief explanation of MVRV
Bitcoin MVRV can serve as one of the indicators to measure the BTC bubble.
MV: Market capitalization.
RV: Realized capitalization, which sums the value increments (or decrements) of each BTC movement on the chain.
MVRV=MV/RV
╰┈✦ MVRV is likely >1
Due to CEX and ETF, much of the BTC turnover did not occur on-chain, so the actual value of BTC should be greater than the RV calculated on-chain. Therefore, MV/RV should be greater than 1 most of the time.
Bitcoin MVRV may provide the answer.
┈┈➤ A brief explanation of MVRV
Bitcoin MVRV can serve as one of the indicators to measure the BTC bubble.
MV: Market capitalization.
RV: Realized capitalization, which sums the value increments (or decrements) of each BTC movement on the chain.
MVRV=MV/RV
╰┈✦ MVRV is likely >1
Due to CEX and ETF, much of the BTC turnover did not occur on-chain, so the actual value of BTC should be greater than the RV calculated on-chain. Therefore, MV/RV should be greater than 1 most of the time.
Does the Spring Festival market talked about by some KOLs really exist?
Last year, New Year's Eve was on January 28, and it peaked on January 20, staying there for a few days before starting to decline on January 31.
As long as more than two rounds of patterns are discovered, it will be ahead...
Last year, New Year's Eve was on January 28, and it peaked on January 20, staying there for a few days before starting to decline on January 31.
As long as more than two rounds of patterns are discovered, it will be ahead...
Finally, there is some good news！！！
The overall CPI monthly rate is lower than expected and lower than the previous value.
The overall CPI annual rate is lower than expected and significantly lower than the previous value.
The overall CPI index is slightly higher than the previous value, and generally, the CPI index tends to rise, so this is quite good.
The core CPI monthly rate meets expectations but is slightly higher than the previous value by 0.1 percentage points,
The core CPI annual rate meets expectations and is lower than the previous value.
The core CPI index is higher than the previous value, which is a normal increase.
Overall, the CPI data is good, and the overall CPI annual rate, as the main inflation indicator, at 2.4% is very close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
In fact, compared to non-farm data, the CPI data is more important. Because even if employment data is better than expected, it is not high compared to historical non-farm employment data.
Moreover, the Treasury Department/Trump needs to lower interest rates to reduce the Federal Reserve's interest.
So, as long as the CPI allows, interest rates will be lowered.
A rapid decline in CPI can allow the Federal Reserve to reach the CPI 2% target earlier and start monetary easing sooner.
The overall CPI monthly rate is lower than expected and lower than the previous value.
The overall CPI annual rate is lower than expected and significantly lower than the previous value.
The overall CPI index is slightly higher than the previous value, and generally, the CPI index tends to rise, so this is quite good.
The core CPI monthly rate meets expectations but is slightly higher than the previous value by 0.1 percentage points,
The core CPI annual rate meets expectations and is lower than the previous value.
The core CPI index is higher than the previous value, which is a normal increase.
Overall, the CPI data is good, and the overall CPI annual rate, as the main inflation indicator, at 2.4% is very close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
In fact, compared to non-farm data, the CPI data is more important. Because even if employment data is better than expected, it is not high compared to historical non-farm employment data.
Moreover, the Treasury Department/Trump needs to lower interest rates to reduce the Federal Reserve's interest.
So, as long as the CPI allows, interest rates will be lowered.
A rapid decline in CPI can allow the Federal Reserve to reach the CPI 2% target earlier and start monetary easing sooner.
TVBee
·
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Non-farm data, not a single good news!
The unemployment rate is lower than expected and below the previous value.
Non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations and are higher than the previous value.
The year-on-year and month-on-month wage growth exceeded expectations, which may affect CPI.
The labor participation rate also exceeded expectations and is higher than the previous value.
Employment in the United States has not continued to deteriorate, and wages are somewhat above expectations.
Recession and interest rate cuts are further away from us...
Only the consumption confidence index for January is declining, and we dare not comment on this data from the United States.
The unemployment rate is lower than expected and below the previous value.
Non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations and are higher than the previous value.
The year-on-year and month-on-month wage growth exceeded expectations, which may affect CPI.
The labor participation rate also exceeded expectations and is higher than the previous value.
Employment in the United States has not continued to deteriorate, and wages are somewhat above expectations.
Recession and interest rate cuts are further away from us...
Only the consumption confidence index for January is declining, and we dare not comment on this data from the United States.
Grayscale's parent company invests, the only big player in Ripple—Doppler, points airdrop + annualized deposit tutorial of 7~11%
Doppler Finance has just launched the second season of the deposit vault. After researching the project background, Brother Bee decisively deposited 2000 dollars.
┈┈➤The background of Doppler
╰┈✦XRP ecosystem and the American background
Previously analyzed, the XRP ecosystem has certain development potential as well as Doppler's XRPfi ecological products.
Doppler is the only DeFi project focused on the Ripple ecosystem, with a current TVL of approximately 70 million dollars (defillama data).
https://x.com/blockTVBee/status/2019966777887977760
As the only big player in the Ripple ecosystem, Doppler has raised 5.5 million dollars in financing, with investors including Grayscale's parent company, DCG.
┈┈➤The background of Doppler
╰┈✦XRP ecosystem and the American background
Previously analyzed, the XRP ecosystem has certain development potential as well as Doppler's XRPfi ecological products.
Doppler is the only DeFi project focused on the Ripple ecosystem, with a current TVL of approximately 70 million dollars (defillama data).
https://x.com/blockTVBee/status/2019966777887977760
As the only big player in the Ripple ecosystem, Doppler has raised 5.5 million dollars in financing, with investors including Grayscale's parent company, DCG.
Non-farm data, not a single good news!
The unemployment rate is lower than expected and below the previous value.
Non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations and are higher than the previous value.
The year-on-year and month-on-month wage growth exceeded expectations, which may affect CPI.
The labor participation rate also exceeded expectations and is higher than the previous value.
Employment in the United States has not continued to deteriorate, and wages are somewhat above expectations.
Recession and interest rate cuts are further away from us...
Only the consumption confidence index for January is declining, and we dare not comment on this data from the United States.
The unemployment rate is lower than expected and below the previous value.
Non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations and are higher than the previous value.
The year-on-year and month-on-month wage growth exceeded expectations, which may affect CPI.
The labor participation rate also exceeded expectations and is higher than the previous value.
Employment in the United States has not continued to deteriorate, and wages are somewhat above expectations.
Recession and interest rate cuts are further away from us...
Only the consumption confidence index for January is declining, and we dare not comment on this data from the United States.
A truly good article is not what is commonly referred to as a "good article"!
A truly good article makes people feel after reading it:
This coin is good,
This reasoning is correct,
This content is useful, interesting, or resonates with them...
A truly good article has no traces of being polished!
If after reading an article, the only feeling others have is that the article is well-written, then this article is definitely not a good article!
A truly good article makes people feel after reading it:
This coin is good,
This reasoning is correct,
This content is useful, interesting, or resonates with them...
A truly good article has no traces of being polished!
If after reading an article, the only feeling others have is that the article is well-written, then this article is definitely not a good article!
On February 9, MegaETH was launched, and debridge has supported cross-chain for MegaETH.
Since its launch, $94,865.46 has flowed out from MegaETH through deBridge, and $242,756.91 has flowed into MegaETH through deBridge.
In less than 2 days, deBridge has brought a net inflow of $147,891.45 to MegaETH.
Since its launch, $94,865.46 has flowed out from MegaETH through deBridge, and $242,756.91 has flowed into MegaETH through deBridge.
In less than 2 days, deBridge has brought a net inflow of $147,891.45 to MegaETH.
Future Finance (WLFI) airdrops, there’s always one that suits you!
WLFI+USD1 has continuously launched 4 major events in the Binance ecosystem, which can be said that everyone can participate and everyone has the opportunity to make money.
┈┈➤ First type of event: Financial Management
In this type of event, users only need to hold USD1, transfer it to financial management, or hold USD1 in the contract account to participate.
The 1st event with capital preservation and profit has ended, with an annualized return rate of up to 20%.
The 2nd event is currently ongoing, it has already been 2 weeks since it ended, and there’s less than 2 weeks left, with an estimated annualized return rate of around 15%.
This type of event is suitable for friends with large capital, exchange it for USD1, and then transfer it to the U-denominated contract account to earn passively.
┈┈➤ Second type of event: Trading
Using USD1 to participate in designated trading pairs can earn points. Based on the points, rewards can be shared.
This type of event is suitable for friends with time, you can look for stable market conditions, earn points, and share WLFI.
┈┈➤ Third type of event: Live Broadcast
Live broadcasts related to WLFI USD1 are conducted in Binance Square, @mscryptojiayi plus Goddess, rewards will be given based on the content of the live broadcast and the number of audience.
Brother Bee just received a reward of 230USD1, thanks to Goddess Jia.
直播：拆解总统的加密蓝图 WLFI+USD1
Influential and expressive friends can give it a try.
Brother Bee kindly reminds you to prepare a PPT with care, conduct a well-organized and high-quality live broadcast, and pair it with some red envelopes for better effects.
WLFI+USD1 has continuously launched 4 major events in the Binance ecosystem, which can be said that everyone can participate and everyone has the opportunity to make money.
┈┈➤ First type of event: Financial Management
In this type of event, users only need to hold USD1, transfer it to financial management, or hold USD1 in the contract account to participate.
The 1st event with capital preservation and profit has ended, with an annualized return rate of up to 20%.
The 2nd event is currently ongoing, it has already been 2 weeks since it ended, and there’s less than 2 weeks left, with an estimated annualized return rate of around 15%.
This type of event is suitable for friends with large capital, exchange it for USD1, and then transfer it to the U-denominated contract account to earn passively.
┈┈➤ Second type of event: Trading
Using USD1 to participate in designated trading pairs can earn points. Based on the points, rewards can be shared.
This type of event is suitable for friends with time, you can look for stable market conditions, earn points, and share WLFI.
┈┈➤ Third type of event: Live Broadcast
Live broadcasts related to WLFI USD1 are conducted in Binance Square, @mscryptojiayi plus Goddess, rewards will be given based on the content of the live broadcast and the number of audience.
Brother Bee just received a reward of 230USD1, thanks to Goddess Jia.
直播：拆解总统的加密蓝图 WLFI+USD1
Influential and expressive friends can give it a try.
Brother Bee kindly reminds you to prepare a PPT with care, conduct a well-organized and high-quality live broadcast, and pair it with some red envelopes for better effects.
Judgment of the Two Foolish Ideas at the Bottom
The first wrong idea is the刻舟 cycle, which rigidly states the cycle is 4 years and claims we are now at the beginning of a bear market.
From October 10th until now, it has already dropped for 4 months; can this be called the beginning of a bear market?!
The correct刻舟 should involve some technical indicators, such as EMA, RSI, etc.?!
Currently, the EMA and RSI are in a bear market, similar to the state in May-June 2022 and October 2018.
This round of rhythm is clearly ahead of schedule and accelerating. Therefore, the remaining bear market time may not be too long. If we only consider the U.S. cycle, after Walsh takes office in the second half of the year, it should be relatively loose, and the bear market may end around June-July. However, considering Japan's monetary policy, we cannot rule out the possibility of the bear market lasting until September-October.
The second wrong idea is calculating price retracement, directly calculating retracement based on BTC price.
When BTC reaches 1 million in the future, can we directly calculate retracement based on the price?!
The correct calculation of retracement should be based on the magnitude of the increase when calculating the retracement magnitude?!
In the past, calculating retracement could be done directly on the highest price because the starting point was too low.
From 2014 to 2017, BTC rose from 172 to 19665, 172 can of course be ignored,
From 2018 to 2021, BTC rose from 3217 to 67617, 3217 actually cannot be ignored,
From 2022 to 2025, BTC rose from 15742 to 124773.5, 15742 really cannot be ignored.
If we calculate BTC dropping from 124773.5 to 60000, it would be approximately only a 52% drop, which would make people feel that BTC still has a large drop space.
However, if we calculate BTC rising from 15742 to 124773.5, then dropping to 60000:
(124773.5-60000)/(124773.5-15742)=59.4%
So, BTC has actually dropped by about 60%, so the space for BTC to continue dropping may not be very large.
Of course, whether analyzing the cycle or the price retracement magnitude, 60000 cannot be determined as the bottom of this bear market.
It is just that the wrong analysis method leads people to mistakenly believe that the bear market will last for a long time and that the drop will be significant.
In fact, this round of cycles is ahead of schedule and accelerating, leaving little time for the bear market and not much room for BTC's drop.
The first wrong idea is the刻舟 cycle, which rigidly states the cycle is 4 years and claims we are now at the beginning of a bear market.
From October 10th until now, it has already dropped for 4 months; can this be called the beginning of a bear market?!
The correct刻舟 should involve some technical indicators, such as EMA, RSI, etc.?!
Currently, the EMA and RSI are in a bear market, similar to the state in May-June 2022 and October 2018.
This round of rhythm is clearly ahead of schedule and accelerating. Therefore, the remaining bear market time may not be too long. If we only consider the U.S. cycle, after Walsh takes office in the second half of the year, it should be relatively loose, and the bear market may end around June-July. However, considering Japan's monetary policy, we cannot rule out the possibility of the bear market lasting until September-October.
The second wrong idea is calculating price retracement, directly calculating retracement based on BTC price.
When BTC reaches 1 million in the future, can we directly calculate retracement based on the price?!
The correct calculation of retracement should be based on the magnitude of the increase when calculating the retracement magnitude?!
In the past, calculating retracement could be done directly on the highest price because the starting point was too low.
From 2014 to 2017, BTC rose from 172 to 19665, 172 can of course be ignored,
From 2018 to 2021, BTC rose from 3217 to 67617, 3217 actually cannot be ignored,
From 2022 to 2025, BTC rose from 15742 to 124773.5, 15742 really cannot be ignored.
If we calculate BTC dropping from 124773.5 to 60000, it would be approximately only a 52% drop, which would make people feel that BTC still has a large drop space.
However, if we calculate BTC rising from 15742 to 124773.5, then dropping to 60000:
(124773.5-60000)/(124773.5-15742)=59.4%
So, BTC has actually dropped by about 60%, so the space for BTC to continue dropping may not be very large.
Of course, whether analyzing the cycle or the price retracement magnitude, 60000 cannot be determined as the bottom of this bear market.
It is just that the wrong analysis method leads people to mistakenly believe that the bear market will last for a long time and that the drop will be significant.
In fact, this round of cycles is ahead of schedule and accelerating, leaving little time for the bear market and not much room for BTC's drop.
This round is all about the old players!
Because there are not many new players entering the market anymore, most of the profits are with the old players.
Those who believe in the four-year cycle, the old players have already boarded the train waiting for the big surge in 2025.
Not being greedy with heavy investments in Bitcoin, but being greedy with heavy investments in altcoins, as well as ETH leverage.
The result is that part, all, or even more of the money earned in previous rounds has been returned.
Yi Lihua is the best example.
But let's not laugh at them; as long as the green mountains remain, we don't fear having no firewood!
After all, they have only returned the profits they once had, still have bullets in hand, and their influence has increased.
Because there are not many new players entering the market anymore, most of the profits are with the old players.
Those who believe in the four-year cycle, the old players have already boarded the train waiting for the big surge in 2025.
Not being greedy with heavy investments in Bitcoin, but being greedy with heavy investments in altcoins, as well as ETH leverage.
The result is that part, all, or even more of the money earned in previous rounds has been returned.
Yi Lihua is the best example.
But let's not laugh at them; as long as the green mountains remain, we don't fear having no firewood!
After all, they have only returned the profits they once had, still have bullets in hand, and their influence has increased.
TVBee
·
--
Empiricism is really harmful!
In 21 years, there was no vision.
After 25 years, realizing the pain, there was vision for a year.
How many people are like Brother Bee?
In 21 years, there was no vision.
After 25 years, realizing the pain, there was vision for a year.
How many people are like Brother Bee?
The Underrated XRP Ecosystem in the Chinese-speaking Region, Where is its Potential and Explosive Power?
Under Wash's 'Interest Rate Cuts + Balance Sheet Reduction' monetary policy, funds will flow into more efficient industries.
For cryptocurrency, projects/tokens that are friendly to the U.S. tend to perform better.
XRP is likely one of the ecosystems with strong potential, after all, XRP is a project that has won against the SEC.
┈┈➤ The Potential of the XRP Ecosystem
╰┈✦ Underestimated in the Chinese-speaking region
The trading volume and depth of XRP on Binance are relatively average, but XRP is more active in the Coinbase and Upbit markets. Especially on Upbit, the trading depth and volume of XRP in the last 24 hours are about 10 times that of Binance.
╰┈✦ ETF Capital Inflow
For cryptocurrency, projects/tokens that are friendly to the U.S. tend to perform better.
XRP is likely one of the ecosystems with strong potential, after all, XRP is a project that has won against the SEC.
┈┈➤ The Potential of the XRP Ecosystem
╰┈✦ Underestimated in the Chinese-speaking region
The trading volume and depth of XRP on Binance are relatively average, but XRP is more active in the Coinbase and Upbit markets. Especially on Upbit, the trading depth and volume of XRP in the last 24 hours are about 10 times that of Binance.
╰┈✦ ETF Capital Inflow
The first step of the xjb analysis has succeeded, and BTC has seen a significant increase in volume.
However, the funding rate is still -0.01%, and the bearish sentiment remains. Some KOLs still believe that BTC will drop to 40,000 or 30,000.
Next, it should be able to test around 70 or 74 (personally leaning towards around 74), and then it should mainly consolidate in this range.
I bought a bit at 63, but not enough. I couldn’t sleep all night, and in the morning I was too tired to function, planning to lie down for half an hour, but ended up sleeping for four hours and missed 60; I’ll wait for the second test, leaning towards around mid-year when Wash takes office.
It’s still hard to say about ETH and altcoins. Good luck to Hua Ge!
However, the funding rate is still -0.01%, and the bearish sentiment remains. Some KOLs still believe that BTC will drop to 40,000 or 30,000.
Next, it should be able to test around 70 or 74 (personally leaning towards around 74), and then it should mainly consolidate in this range.
I bought a bit at 63, but not enough. I couldn’t sleep all night, and in the morning I was too tired to function, planning to lie down for half an hour, but ended up sleeping for four hours and missed 60; I’ll wait for the second test, leaning towards around mid-year when Wash takes office.
It’s still hard to say about ETH and altcoins. Good luck to Hua Ge!
TVBee
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【xjb Analysis】The big pancake has fallen to this position, and for the main force (institution), continuing to sell is not very significant for them anymore.
┈┈➤ The following selling pressure may mainly come from retail investors and ETFs.
In the spot market, it has already fallen to the previous round's high point, and at this time, it may not be far from the bottom. The main force (institution) has a large amount of capital, and at this position, it is no longer suitable for a main wave.
In the contract market, as the experienced drivers say, there is nothing left to explode on the long positions.
Of course, looking at the market, there are currently no signs of stopping the decline.
Next, it may be some panicking retail investors selling their spot holdings.
In addition, the US stock market may have some demand for a pullback, and there may also be some selling pressure from ETFs.
But it shouldn't be too panicky; BTC often reacts more swiftly than the US stock market and has already fallen first.
┈┈➤ The main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
However, the trading volume is still not large, and the current trading volume does not match the declines in April last year and from October to November; the main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
┈┈➤ xjb Prediction
In the short term, look at the daily US market time and whether the weekly chart will show increased volume.
After the weekly chart shows increased volume, there may be a slight rebound, similar to the second half of 2022, which will mainly be horizontal fluctuations. This is not a case of carving a boat to seek a sword; in a bear market, it is difficult to have a V-shaped reversal and requires a longer repair phase.
In the end, there will be a second probe; the specific amplitude of this second probe will depend on the influence of events at that time. However, this time point should not be at the end of the year; it may be related to the recent US-Iran events, or it could be around May to June when Walsh takes office, or around September.
┈┈➤ Final Note
Bee Brother's personal opinion is that the liquidity black swan will be very severe. In fact, the BCH fork hash war at the end of 2018 had liquidity bearishness, with both BCH and BSV selling BTC to compete for hash power.
The collapse of Luna in mid-2022 and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital were both liquidity bearish events. The collapse of FTX at the end of 2022 was essentially also a liquidity bearish event.
In this round of liquidity risk, Bee Brother briefly looked at the microstrategy's financial report; it should have been fine six months ago, but the second half is uncertain. On the contrary, the leveraged futures of ETH might have a greater risk.
Whether Walsh's policy is loose or tight is also a very important factor affecting liquidity.
As for events like the US-Iran situation, they do not involve liquidity factors, so the impact is relatively limited.
┈┈➤ The following selling pressure may mainly come from retail investors and ETFs.
In the spot market, it has already fallen to the previous round's high point, and at this time, it may not be far from the bottom. The main force (institution) has a large amount of capital, and at this position, it is no longer suitable for a main wave.
In the contract market, as the experienced drivers say, there is nothing left to explode on the long positions.
Of course, looking at the market, there are currently no signs of stopping the decline.
Next, it may be some panicking retail investors selling their spot holdings.
In addition, the US stock market may have some demand for a pullback, and there may also be some selling pressure from ETFs.
But it shouldn't be too panicky; BTC often reacts more swiftly than the US stock market and has already fallen first.
┈┈➤ The main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
However, the trading volume is still not large, and the current trading volume does not match the declines in April last year and from October to November; the main force's buying has not yet entered the market.
┈┈➤ xjb Prediction
In the short term, look at the daily US market time and whether the weekly chart will show increased volume.
After the weekly chart shows increased volume, there may be a slight rebound, similar to the second half of 2022, which will mainly be horizontal fluctuations. This is not a case of carving a boat to seek a sword; in a bear market, it is difficult to have a V-shaped reversal and requires a longer repair phase.
In the end, there will be a second probe; the specific amplitude of this second probe will depend on the influence of events at that time. However, this time point should not be at the end of the year; it may be related to the recent US-Iran events, or it could be around May to June when Walsh takes office, or around September.
┈┈➤ Final Note
Bee Brother's personal opinion is that the liquidity black swan will be very severe. In fact, the BCH fork hash war at the end of 2018 had liquidity bearishness, with both BCH and BSV selling BTC to compete for hash power.
The collapse of Luna in mid-2022 and the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital were both liquidity bearish events. The collapse of FTX at the end of 2022 was essentially also a liquidity bearish event.
In this round of liquidity risk, Bee Brother briefly looked at the microstrategy's financial report; it should have been fine six months ago, but the second half is uncertain. On the contrary, the leveraged futures of ETH might have a greater risk.
Whether Walsh's policy is loose or tight is also a very important factor affecting liquidity.
As for events like the US-Iran situation, they do not involve liquidity factors, so the impact is relatively limited.
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