Pai
310 Posts
Pai
我的故事要从2012年比特币显卡矿机说起 交易员｜BTC | 美股｜Ai｜
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The thing that ignites has already started to turn back—very few people have noticed.
The Ministry of Finance bought back long-term bonds, doubling them: the 30-year yield was smashed from 5.34 to 5.18, blowing up short positions totaling $4 billion.
One buyback, and the market priced it as the prelude to YCC.
Now yields have bounced back to 5.28. The fuel is burned out—I’m not chasing it.
The Ministry of Finance bought back long-term bonds, doubling them: the 30-year yield was smashed from 5.34 to 5.18, blowing up short positions totaling $4 billion.
One buyback, and the market priced it as the prelude to YCC.
Now yields have bounced back to 5.28. The fuel is burned out—I’m not chasing it.
Chip boss is falling while gold skyrockets—this week’s money picked a side
Gold prices jumped from 4516 to 4680 in a single day, up more than three points
Gold miner leader Newmont rose 3 points, closing at 131—only three away from the new high of 134
Nvidia fell 1 point on Friday. The whole market was green-to-red, and the leader was red
The Dow outperformed the Nasdaq—money is going into defense
Gold and U.S. stocks are flying together. I’ll put a question mark on that for now
Next week I won’t chase this gold move—I’ll just watch where it goes
Gold prices jumped from 4516 to 4680 in a single day, up more than three points
Gold miner leader Newmont rose 3 points, closing at 131—only three away from the new high of 134
Nvidia fell 1 point on Friday. The whole market was green-to-red, and the leader was red
The Dow outperformed the Nasdaq—money is going into defense
Gold and U.S. stocks are flying together. I’ll put a question mark on that for now
Next week I won’t chase this gold move—I’ll just watch where it goes
80K is right within reach, yet I don’t want to board
BTC rose from 63K to 79.5K within a week. On Monday, it kept hovering around 63K. On Wednesday, one big volume candle broke through 70K—then after that, it made new highs every day, never giving a pullback the whole way.
Altcoins are only getting crazy now: XRP is up 15% in a day, DOGE is up 13% in a day. And at the end, it’s always the most lively.
The profit goes to those who chase the high. This week I’m staying in cash, watching from the sidelines—no panic at all.
BTC rose from 63K to 79.5K within a week. On Monday, it kept hovering around 63K. On Wednesday, one big volume candle broke through 70K—then after that, it made new highs every day, never giving a pullback the whole way.
Altcoins are only getting crazy now: XRP is up 15% in a day, DOGE is up 13% in a day. And at the end, it’s always the most lively.
The profit goes to those who chase the high. This week I’m staying in cash, watching from the sidelines—no panic at all.
80K missed by one breath
Pinned down at 79.5
In five days, 63 to 79.5
26 points
Everyone you should be chasing has chased them this week
Who’s still buying on the weekend
I’m not chasing—going into the weekend at this pace is just taking the bag
On the weekend I’m not moving
On Monday, let’s see after the US stock market opens
Pinned down at 79.5
In five days, 63 to 79.5
26 points
Everyone you should be chasing has chased them this week
Who’s still buying on the weekend
I’m not chasing—going into the weekend at this pace is just taking the bag
On the weekend I’m not moving
On Monday, let’s see after the US stock market opens
New price highs, shorts are piling up
BTC climbed from 63K to 73.8K in a week
Funding rate was cut in half instead
Long/short ratio fell below 1—no one dares to go long
Leverage isn’t being stacked; spot is being bought up
The shorts are still lining up to serve as fuel
At this level I won’t short, and I also don’t dare to chase
BTC climbed from 63K to 73.8K in a week
Funding rate was cut in half instead
Long/short ratio fell below 1—no one dares to go long
Leverage isn’t being stacked; spot is being bought up
The shorts are still lining up to serve as fuel
At this level I won’t short, and I also don’t dare to chase
Walmart’s earnings look pretty good, yet the stock price just crashed
First reaction—did I read the numbers wrong?
The profit includes a $2.9 billion tariff refund—like a one-time bonus
Strip away that layer, and same-store sales are up only 2.6%—the slowest in six years
The retail king that’s outperformed Amazon for five years—today it finally shows
Consumption may be running out first, while the broader market is still acting like nothing’s wrong
First reaction—did I read the numbers wrong?
The profit includes a $2.9 billion tariff refund—like a one-time bonus
Strip away that layer, and same-store sales are up only 2.6%—the slowest in six years
The retail king that’s outperformed Amazon for five years—today it finally shows
Consumption may be running out first, while the broader market is still acting like nothing’s wrong
No one dares to chase, and no one dares to short.
BTC has ground from 64 to 72.
Spot is absorbing while leverage is sleeping.
This kind of rally—backed by futures—is going hard.
If it pulls back, I’ll buy.
BTC has ground from 64 to 72.
Spot is absorbing while leverage is sleeping.
This kind of rally—backed by futures—is going hard.
If it pulls back, I’ll buy.
Verified
1.4 billion short sellers buried — ETH surged 18% in one day
The strongest candle in the past five months
BTC even touched $70,000 — the first time since June
On Sunday the market was still cursing bears, and it flipped in three days
The mastermind is the U.S. Treasury — long bond repo doubled
I won’t chase, but at this time shorting is basically asking for death
The strongest candle in the past five months
BTC even touched $70,000 — the first time since June
On Sunday the market was still cursing bears, and it flipped in three days
The mastermind is the U.S. Treasury — long bond repo doubled
I won’t chase, but at this time shorting is basically asking for death
Verified
Gold’s rise today is suspicious.
In a single day, it jumped 3%.
While NVDA is dragging the semiconductors down, gold is moving the other way.
Money is rushing into gold.
Hedging/safe-haven assets are all moving in at once today.
I’m not catching the flying knife as it falls.
This kind of one-day surge in gold doesn’t usually come for free.
Let’s see whether it continues tomorrow.
In a single day, it jumped 3%.
While NVDA is dragging the semiconductors down, gold is moving the other way.
Money is rushing into gold.
Hedging/safe-haven assets are all moving in at once today.
I’m not catching the flying knife as it falls.
This kind of one-day surge in gold doesn’t usually come for free.
Let’s see whether it continues tomorrow.
All the money has gone to chase copycats—nobody’s looking after BTC.
It broke through the upper limit at 64.6K, but it still hasn’t filled in with even a decent bullish candle.
The funding rate is stuck at zero, and the OI is still dropping.
This market talks like it wants 5x or 10x, but the breakout is so slow that nobody’s watching.
I don’t trust it—I’m keeping my bullets.
It broke through the upper limit at 64.6K, but it still hasn’t filled in with even a decent bullish candle.
The funding rate is stuck at zero, and the OI is still dropping.
This market talks like it wants 5x or 10x, but the breakout is so slow that nobody’s watching.
I don’t trust it—I’m keeping my bullets.
I’m not at all worried about this semiconductor drop.
AMD sold off right at the open—down 6%. NVDA is only down 2%.
Over the past year and a half, whenever semiconductors move, it’s always NVDA leading the way. This time it’s the opposite—AMD is leading the selloff downward.
Gold is still rising, while the Dow is only down 0.6%. This is rotation—money moving from story stocks to hard assets.
If NVDA can hold up, I still don’t believe AI trading is over. When it actually breaks down, I’ll consider going short.
At this level, I’m not buying AMD. The water hasn’t fully drained yet.
AMD sold off right at the open—down 6%. NVDA is only down 2%.
Over the past year and a half, whenever semiconductors move, it’s always NVDA leading the way. This time it’s the opposite—AMD is leading the selloff downward.
Gold is still rising, while the Dow is only down 0.6%. This is rotation—money moving from story stocks to hard assets.
If NVDA can hold up, I still don’t believe AI trading is over. When it actually breaks down, I’ll consider going short.
At this level, I’m not buying AMD. The water hasn’t fully drained yet.
Tom Lee’s Bitmine has already bought 4.8% of the circulating ETH supply.
Every week it’s still adding—aiming for 5%.
On the same day, ETH gave back all of its morning gains; XRP broke below $1.
Retail investors are running—while he is quietly accumulating his buy orders.
On my side, I have positions; on the other side, there are...
Every week it’s still adding—aiming for 5%.
On the same day, ETH gave back all of its morning gains; XRP broke below $1.
Retail investors are running—while he is quietly accumulating his buy orders.
On my side, I have positions; on the other side, there are...
Ripped it up—no one believes
Yesterday 62.7, now 64.5—the price has passed the top edge of the box.
The long/short ratio fell from 2.2 to 1.5 in one day.
Price is rising, yet everyone is actually short.
The less anyone believes, the better the show.
I’m waiting to see how this batch of shorts gets squeezed.
Yesterday 62.7, now 64.5—the price has passed the top edge of the box.
The long/short ratio fell from 2.2 to 1.5 in one day.
Price is rising, yet everyone is actually short.
The less anyone believes, the better the show.
I’m waiting to see how this batch of shorts gets squeezed.
Bought for a whole year, and then brought it back
Paul Tudor Jones disclosed that he bought back over the weekend
UBS’s BTC call options—added by 24x
The price is stuck around 63K, unmoving for a week
Money underneath is quietly shifting
I’m betting this range will eventually break upward
Paul Tudor Jones disclosed that he bought back over the weekend
UBS’s BTC call options—added by 24x
The price is stuck around 63K, unmoving for a week
Money underneath is quietly shifting
I’m betting this range will eventually break upward
BTC+0.78%
IBITETF+6.78%
The more this market drops, the more people go long.
The long/short ratio has jumped to 2.2.
Out of ten accounts, seven are betting on a rebound.
BTC is stuck at 62.7K and can’t get back up.
A slow blade has ground for six days.
It hasn’t collapsed—there’s just no strength left to rise.
No one is cutting losses; the floating supply hasn’t been cleaned up yet.
I won’t catch this knife.
I’ll wait for these 70% of longs to finally let go first.
The long/short ratio has jumped to 2.2.
Out of ten accounts, seven are betting on a rebound.
BTC is stuck at 62.7K and can’t get back up.
A slow blade has ground for six days.
It hasn’t collapsed—there’s just no strength left to rise.
No one is cutting losses; the floating supply hasn’t been cleaned up yet.
I won’t catch this knife.
I’ll wait for these 70% of longs to finally let go first.
Paul Tudor Jones sold a BTC ETF for a year and now has bought it back
UBS increased its long options position by 24 times
This week, the ETF also saw two consecutive outflows
Small money is running, big money is picking up
Positions don’t lie; sentiment will
UBS increased its long options position by 24 times
This week, the ETF also saw two consecutive outflows
Small money is running, big money is picking up
Positions don’t lie; sentiment will
Long-Short Ratio 2.05: When it comes to big pie, they can't break into new highs
67% bet on the rise—price has been grinding at 63K for six weeks
This week’s range is under $3,000; it’s the narrowest in six weeks
ETH is stuck at 1882; no altcoin dares to move
An altcoin nobody is touching is liquidity that nobody is taking
Next week, two numbers
65391 = this week’s high
62535 = this week’s low
Break which one, and it’ll move in that direction
I’m leaning lower
Friday said that pile of longs was fuel
Now that fuel is even thicker
67% bet on the rise—price has been grinding at 63K for six weeks
This week’s range is under $3,000; it’s the narrowest in six weeks
ETH is stuck at 1882; no altcoin dares to move
An altcoin nobody is touching is liquidity that nobody is taking
Next week, two numbers
65391 = this week’s high
62535 = this week’s low
Break which one, and it’ll move in that direction
I’m leaning lower
Friday said that pile of longs was fuel
Now that fuel is even thicker
AI faith has slimmed down this week
AVGO down 8%, NVDA almost unchanged
Money only willing to stay with the big boss
When AVGO fell this round, I pored over it for a long time
No earnings report, no scandal
Just being slowly sold through
A drop without reason is scarier than one with a reason
With a reason: bad news is already priced in
Without a reason: someone ran first
The basket of AI has narrowed to just one remaining star—NVIDIA
The market calls this “safe.” I call it “fragile.”
I won’t add to my position with this kind of move
NVIDIA sneezes, and the whole sector catches a cold too
AVGO down 8%, NVDA almost unchanged
Money only willing to stay with the big boss
When AVGO fell this round, I pored over it for a long time
No earnings report, no scandal
Just being slowly sold through
A drop without reason is scarier than one with a reason
With a reason: bad news is already priced in
Without a reason: someone ran first
The basket of AI has narrowed to just one remaining star—NVIDIA
The market calls this “safe.” I call it “fragile.”
I won’t add to my position with this kind of move
NVIDIA sneezes, and the whole sector catches a cold too
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