红豆加冰

🚨 Kuaishou Faces Large-Scale Black Industry Attack: Live Streaming Section Urgently Shut Down

Last night, the Kuaishou platform encountered a large-scale organized black industry attack. Over 17,000 manipulated "zombie accounts" simultaneously streamed violating content, using professional techniques.

Platform Urgent Response: Kuaishou quickly took action and completely shut down the live streaming entrance for handling around 0:24 AM.

Market Impact Concerns: Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) has recently faced pressure on its stock price due to business expansion, and this serious security incident may further affect investor confidence, with its content governance capabilities under scrutiny.

🎯 Christmas Week Trading Reminder
U.S. stocks only trade for 3.5 days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Friday), the market enters a "liquidity vacuum."
⚠️ Note: Low liquidity can amplify volatility, increasing the risk of false breakouts/falls. Especially with #Bitcoin trading 24/7, extra caution is needed.
The market is holding its breath, with unclear direction for $BTC , traders are turning to spot markets to reduce risk.

📊 Historical Data
The probability of the S&P 500 rising after Christmas is 76-80% (1950-2022 statistics).
#BTC may have an independent trend, and technical pullbacks can be seen as layout opportunities.

💡 Operation Strategy
• U.S. Stocks: If there is a pullback from early to Wednesday, consider buying in batches.
• #BTC: If there is a deep pullback during Christmas, consider buying in steps; if it consolidates, patiently wait for opportunities.

Focus on early week NVDA/CRCL opportunities, $BTC / $ETH waiting for the Christmas window.
Always keep in mind:
✅ Keep enough cash for living expenses
✅ Plan for sustainable income
✅ Execute BTC dollar-cost averaging
Don't waste the bear market; planning is an advantage.

🔮 2026 Outlook: Cycle Ambiguity, Macro Dominance
The four-year cycle of BTC is becoming "ambiguous," with market drivers shifting from on-chain to macro liquidity.
✅ The larger the market cap, the stronger the reliance on global liquidity
✅ 2026: Atypical bull and bear. The pace of interest rate cuts will determine the "liquidity release acceleration"
✅ The environment is better than 2018/2022, but hard to support a full bull market

🔥 Bitcoin Liquidation Weekly Report
This week's total liquidation amount is approximately 650 million dollars (12/15:205 million, 12/17:111 million, 12/19:202 million).
Excessive long and short positions + thin liquidity = market reset phase, not a panic signal.
Currently, it feels more like a rhythm adjustment before a clear direction.
#Trading #Macro #BTC #InvestmentStrategy #TradingPsychology #MarketCycle

🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected! The rate rises to 0.75% (the highest level in 30 years since 1995).
The negative impact has been absorbed in advance, with the Nikkei 225 rising 1.16% and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield breaking 2% (the first occurrence since 2006), and the market transitions smoothly.
Key points from the central bank's statement: the real interest rate remains at an extremely low level, and if economic prices meet expectations, there will be a 'gradual rate hike'. The current monetary environment remains loose to support the economy—there is no risk of rapid tightening in the future, and the pace is relatively moderate.
At the beginning of the month, it was anticipated that the impact of this rate hike would be limited, and previous observations from the CFTC on yen positions also indicated that the shock is manageable. Currently, the focus is on the USD/JPY exchange rate (currently reported at 156.79); as long as there is no significant and sustained decline, the risk of a retreat in carry trade is small.
In the afternoon, we await further confirmation of the policy path from Governor Ueda. →

# Bank of Japan Rate Hike # Yen Exchange Rate # Global Central Bank Watch

December 19, 2025

🔥 Key Data:
✅ The US November CPI was released yesterday (December 18) at 21:30, rising by 2.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%.
✅ The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision was finalized this morning, with a 25 basis point hike in line with market consensus.

📈 Market Predictions and Operational Thoughts
The expected market movement after the decision can be categorized into three scenarios:

1. Spike down → Fluctuating rebound
2. Spike down → Fluctuating bottoming → Secondary rebound
3. Continuation of weakness after decline

The probability of the third scenario is low; the key lies in the strength of the spike. If the strength is large, it leans towards the first scenario; otherwise, it leans towards the second. If you are optimistic about Q1, you can gamble on a rebound at key positions without needing to chase absolute lows.

💎 Core Logic
Short-term volatility is a chip exchange and does not affect the overall upward expectation for Q1. Whether to trade depends on your judgment of the subsequent trend.

💡 In-depth Thought: Why is the data impact “loud thunder, little rain”?
1️⃣ Market expectation management is adequate: Although the CPI data fell below expectations, due to its delayed release and the absence of October month-on-month data, the market had already digested its impact. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was fully anticipated, thus asset price fluctuations were mild.
2️⃣ Shift in focus: The current core contradiction in the market has shifted from single-month inflation data to the game surrounding the 2026 Federal Reserve Chair transition and the overall interest rate cut path. Traders bet that the volatility of the S&P on the day of the CPI release would be below 0.7%, significantly lower than the historical average.
3️⃣ Structural interpretation: The “2.7%” CPI figure is certainly appealing, but behind it lies the result of data collection being limited due to government shutdown. Smart money is examining its sustainability rather than participating in blind celebrations.

⚠️ Current Core Risks:

· The liquidation risk of large leveraged long positions (with losses exceeding 77 million) has not been completely alleviated by the data release and remains a potential instability factor in the market.
· The macro narrative has entered a “vacuum period,” with attention shifting to individual events (such as Uniswap voting) and on-chain capital flows, making the market more likely to fluctuate.

🌐 My View:
The market seems chaotic, but the main line is clear—macro liquidity expectations and structural upgrades within crypto (institutionalization, infrastructure expansion) are racing ahead. Short-term volatility is a process of leverage clearance, while the long-term narrative still points to capital migrating towards “compliant exits” and “yield protocols.” Stay patient, keep enough ammunition, and the spike could present an opportunity for layout.

Tonight's CPI not only met expectations but also significantly fell short of them—market sentiment was instantly ignited.

U.S. stock futures surged straight up, nearly recovering all of yesterday's losses. Cryptocurrencies also followed suit, with $BTC once again testing the $90,000 mark.

Tomorrow, the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, although the market has priced in a 99% chance, the real variable lies in the governor's comments on the subsequent interest rate path. However, I believe the impact will mainly concentrate on that day.

Next up is the Christmas rally. Currently, there seems to be no obvious bearish factors, and I personally see the safety factor of this "Christmas rally" around 90%.

Therefore, tomorrow I will consider increasing positions depending on the situation. Short-term sentiment should remain stable after digesting the Japanese rate hike—at least for now, the correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is still evident, and the macroeconomic trends in the U.S. will continue to impact both.

📉 Japan's interest rate hike = crypto crash? Don't be swayed by simple attributions! A calm logical breakdown

The market is flooded with the graphic stating "historically, after interest rate hikes, BTC must drop by 20%+"; does this really mean it will happen again this time? My view is different:
🔑 Core logic: Structural "interest rate differential trading" reversal requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: 1️⃣ US recession expectations;
2️⃣ Continuous interest rate hikes in Japan. If the US does not enter a recession, its high-yield assets remain attractive, and capital will not completely reverse direction. This is the basis for judging the overall direction.

📊 Historical review of the three interest rate hikes:
• March 2024 rate hike: The larger significance is the "landmark reversal" of Japan's 11-year ultra-loose policy. At that time, BTC had already soared from 24,000 to 73,000 within six months, and a technical correction due to negative news was very normal.
• July 2024 rate hike: This is the only instance that matched the scenario of "US recession expectations (at that time hitting the Sam rule) + Japan's interest rate hike," which indeed triggered panic deleveraging, but the US ultimately did not enter a recession, allowing the market to recover.
• January 2025 rate hike: The major drop shown in the graphic is primarily due to the subsequent 2-3 months of "Trump's tariff shock," rather than the rate hike itself.

💡 My prediction for this time:
Currently, US economic data (even if non-farm is relatively weak) has not sent a clear recession signal, and government bonds and US stocks have not traded on recession expectations. Therefore, condition one does not hold. Although the market has partially digested interest rate hike expectations, as long as an unexpectedly strong tightening cycle does not begin, it's hard to say that the "interest rate differential trading" has completely reversed.

⚡ The essence of current high volatility:
Recently, the market has been "chaotic," with $BTC experiencing massive swings within minutes, while US stocks respond laggingly. This precisely indicates: the crypto market is acting as the "vanguard" of global risk and a liquidity outpost, with high leverage stepping on each other under multiple uncertainties (CPI, Trump’s speeches).

🎯 Summary and strategy:
There is no need to panic excessively about the overall direction. Short-term sentiment may trigger volatility and deleveraging, but this is not a structural reversal. My approach is: do not make short-term predictions, but focus on risk control and re-engagement based on condition triggers. Maintain patience in the volatility, deepen my own skills (learning, companionship, research), and wait for the macro "shoe" to drop.

December 18 | Market Dynamics

✅️ Market Trends
▪️ BTC/ETH 24-hour chart shows market liquidity is lacking, leading to confusion. Altcoins are generally declining.
▪️ All three major US stock indices fell, mainly due to market concerns over high AI valuations, and waiting for the upcoming CPI report.

✅️ Market Highlights
1⃣ BitMine purchased approximately $141 million in ETH at a market low, with a total holding of nearly 4 million coins, aiming to occupy 5% of the total ETH supply.
2⃣ Visa announced support for US financial institutions to use USDC on Solana for transaction settlements, further integrating stablecoins into traditional finance.
3⃣ Aster will launch the fifth phase of its airdrop on December 22, distributing a total supply of 1.2% (approximately 96 million ASTER).
4⃣ Since its launch in November, the XRP ETF has seen cumulative inflows surpassing $1 billion, with no single day of net outflow, outperforming the Bitcoin ETF during the same period (net outflow of $2.9 billion).
5⃣ WLFI proposed using treasury funds to promote the USD1 stablecoin, with community voting now underway.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #市场分析 #空投 #ETF #稳定币

📊 Market Daily | December 16, 2025
🟥 Market Overview
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 3.61% to $2.93 trillion. The market is affected by macro uncertainties and on-chain liquidations.
U.S. stocks fell broadly, with the NASDAQ leading the decline, primarily due to profit-taking in AI stocks and poor outlooks from tech giants.
🟧 Market Highlights
1️⃣ #Tether's acquisition of #JUV was rejected, remaining the second-largest shareholder, with fan tokens temporarily dropping over 13%.
2️⃣ #CME launched futures for $XRP and $SOL based on spot quotes, strengthening the mainstream crypto derivatives matrix.
3️⃣ #Circle acquired Interop Lab to accelerate cross-chain interoperability layout, building on-chain financial infrastructure.
4️⃣ #MSTR's market value ($46.5B) and its held asset value ($58B) have nearly eliminated their premium, but its debt structure causes its volatility to be about 2-3 times that of $BTC.
5️⃣ #CZ mentioned increasing holdings in #ASTER for the third time, but the token has dropped to $0.794, hitting a recent low, with a market value of about $7.5B.
Summary: Under macro pressure, the market has broadly declined, with the integration of traditional finance and crypto (CME, Circle) and changes in institutional positions (MSTR) becoming today's focus.

December 15

✅️Market Trends
In the last 24 hours, $BTC \$ETH continued to fluctuate, with altcoins generally showing mixed gains and losses. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by 2.03% to approximately $3.01 trillion, as the market remained weak due to ETF fund outflows and macroeconomic impacts.
The US stock market closed last Friday (Dec 12) with the S&P 500 down 1.07%, the Dow down 0.51%, and the Nasdaq down 1.69%. After Broadcom's earnings report, it plummeted nearly 11%.

✅️Market Highlights:
1⃣Bitcoin briefly fell below $88,000, with Ethereum and Solana also declining. In the last 24 hours, a total of 115,561 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $271 million.
2⃣Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens at 8:00 on December 15, worth $13.2 million; Sei Network (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens at 20:00 the same day, worth $7.1 million, which may trigger volatility.
3⃣This week's key data: Japan's interest rate decision (Friday), US November CPI (Thursday 21:30). US inflation expectation final value (Friday 23:00).
4⃣ChainOpera AI launched its foundation website chainopera.foundation and plans to introduce the COAI ecological fund.

$BNB

【Next Week's Market Heavy Warning】U.S. stocks will face a "Super Central Bank Week" storm, three major risks need to be highly vigilant!⚡️

🔥 Core Risks:
1️⃣ Several Fed officials have hawkish statements
2️⃣ U.S. November non-farm + CPI data will be released in succession
3️⃣ The probability of Bank of Japan interest rate hike rises to 75%, market expectations are strong

🗓 Key Time Points:
12/16 (Tue) 21:30 U.S. Non-Farm
12/17 (Wed) 22:05 Fed Officials Speak
12/18 (Thu) U.S. CPI
12/19 (Fri) Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting

⚠️ Global Central Bank Intensive Decisions: Interest rate decisions from multiple countries such as Japan, Europe, and the UK will be released in succession, especially if Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, it may trigger cross-market volatility.

💡 Operation Suggestions: Market uncertainty has surged, it is advisable to cautiously control positions and做好风险对冲。

#美股 #美联储 $BTC $BNB