智能研究院

The data in my last article was wrong, so the editor sent it back. I’ve rechecked the numbers this time.
Price: 0.00335, up 17.1% in 24 hours. RSI is 71, which is overbought. MFI is 85, so money flow is overbought too. The price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, at the 99th percentile.
The chart looks strong. ADX is 52, so the bullish trend is intact.
But I checked something even more concerning: trading volume.
It’s only $6 million.
What does that mean? That’s the size of a single large trade in a major coin. Across the top 50 order-book levels, buy-side depth is 41%, but the actual bid wall is only $23,000. The ask wall is $59,000—two and a half times larger than the bid wall.
It’s easy to get in, but hard to get out. A single 5% wick could blow right through your stop-loss, and then you’ll find there’s no depth in the order book when you try to sell.

$ETH At this level, I laid out everything I could check and looked it over.
■ I. Structure
Current price: 2,318, 24-hour change: -3.71%, trading volume: 514 million, 1,970,550 trades.
Price is at the 28% level of its 24-hour range.
Three-timeframe trend: 1h bearish / 4h bearish / 1d bearish.
■ II. Indicators
RSI: 1h 27.6 / 4h 31.1 / 1d 33.4
ADX: 1h 45.4 / 4h 27.5 (>25 indicates a clear trend)
CCI: -128 (±100 marks the strength/weakness threshold)
MFI: 21.7 (@20 indicates oversold funds / >80 indicates overbought)
WILLR: -65.7
KDJ: K 33.7 / D 30.7 / J 39.8
Bollinger Bands: upper 2,411 / middle 2,364 / lower 2,318, position 0%

$ZEC At this level, I’ve laid out everything I could check and taken a look.
■ I. Structure
Current price 1,144, 24h -7.74%, trading volume 168 million.
Price is at 18% of its 24-hour range.
Three-timeframe trend: 1h bearish / 4h bearish / 1d range-bound.
■ II. Indicators
RSI: 1h 33.5 / 4h 35.9 / 1d 44.0
ADX: 1h 37.4 / 4h 18.3 (>25 indicates a clear trend)
CCI: -172 (±100 marks the strength/weakness threshold)
MFI: 17.9 (@20 indicates oversold funds / >80 overbought)
WILLR: -61.3
KDJ: K 35.4 / D 39.1 / J 28.1
Bollinger Bands: upper 1,215 / middle 1,171 / lower 1,126, position 20%

BTC at 79,750. RSI at 25.
Broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 79,929. CCI at -192.
This setup had a 61.2% win rate and an average return of +0.21% per trade in a historical backtest (90 days / 1h / 12-hour holding period / 121 samples).
By the playbook, this is where you'd expect a bounce.
But I'm not taking the trade. There's just one number behind that decision.
ATR: 0.46%.
My minimum threshold for taking a trade is 0.5%. Below that, stop-losses and targets get squeezed, and fees and slippage eat into the profits first.
With a 61.2% win rate and just 0.46% volatility, the numbers don't add up for this trade.
The pattern is real. So is how hard it is to make money.
But there's one detail worth taking a closer look at.

The data for $SOL caught my eye. Here’s my reasoning.
Current price: 99.5600, down 4.95% over 24 hours, with a trading volume of 195 million.
■ Why it’s worth watching
① Price is hovering around the Bollinger midline at 102, with the upper and lower bands at 104 and 100. Choosing a direction here could offer plenty of room to move.
② RSI is at 21, not yet at an extreme, which means there could be room for a continued move if momentum picks up.
③ Volume is at 0.1x the average—not completely dead.
■ Key levels
· Move above 104 → opens up room to the upside
· Break below 100 → short-term structure weakens
· 102 in the middle is the dividing line between bulls and bears
■ How I’d approach it
I’d keep an eye on it in stages, rather than going all in at once. There’s one approach for a breakout and another for a pullback, but the key is to wait for confirmation before acting—not to guess.

The data for $BMT looks interesting to me. Here’s my reasoning.
Current price: 0.0377, up 58.58% over 24 hours, with a trading volume of 55 million.
■ Why it’s worth watching
① Price is hovering near the Bollinger middle band at 0, with the upper and lower bands at 0 and 0 respectively. A move in either direction from here could have plenty of room.
② RSI is 58, nowhere near an extreme, which means any move could have room to continue.
③ Volume is 0.1× the average—not completely dead.
■ Key levels
· Move above 0 → opens up room to the upside
· Break below 0 → short-term structure weakens
· 0 in the middle is the dividing line between bulls and bears
■ How I’d approach it
I’d keep an eye on it in stages rather than going all in at once. There’s one way to trade a breakout and another to trade a pullback, but the key is to wait for confirmation before acting—not to guess.

$NEAR At this level, I laid out everything I could look at and went through it.
■ I. Structure
Current price 4.359, 24h +4.36%, trading volume -1.03 billion, 1.256733287518 trades.
Price is at 17% of the 24-hour range.
Three-timeframe trend: 1h bearish / 4h bearish / 1d ranging.
■ II. Indicators
RSI: 1h 26.1 / 4h 26.3 / 1d 44.5
ADX: 1h 52.8 / 4h 19.8 (>25 indicates a clear trend)
CCI: -132 (±100 marks the strength/weakness threshold)
MFI: 26.8 (@20 is oversold / >80 is overbought)
WILLR: -75.0
KDJ: K 21.3 / D 18.8 / J 26.4
Bollinger Bands: upper 4.821 / middle 4.580 / lower 4.339, position 4%

BTC: 79449. RSI: 22.4.
ETH RSI: 18.4. SOL: 19.8.
The whole market is oversold, and everything is falling.
Just one exception.$BMT 0.0377, up 61.5% in 24 hours, with $55 million in trading volume.
On a day like this, when one coin is up 61%, your first thought is, “The bull market is here.”
My first thought was: Who’s buying?
Let’s lay out the market data.
The structure looks fine. EMA 9/21/50/200 are all aligned bullishly, and ADX is 45.4—a strong trend.
But three numbers made me hit the brakes.
① Volume ratio: 0.63. A coin up 61% is seeing declining volume.
② MACD bearish crossover, histogram at -0.000126. The momentum is gone.
③ Large orders over $100,000: 0.

Take a closer look at the $USD1 data.
■ Structure
Current price: 0.9999, 24h change: +0.00%, trading volume: 78 million. The price is at the 79% mark of its 24-hour range.
■ Indicators
RSI(14) is 55.6, neutral to slightly bullish.
The MACD histogram is above zero; the bulls are still in the game.
KDJ J value is 103, entering overbought territory.
Bollinger Bands: upper 1 / middle 1 / lower 1.
Volume has fallen to 0.4 times the 7-day average; without volume, there's no direction.
■ Order Book
Buy orders across the top 20 levels total 4082419.0000, while sell orders total 8358784.0000—the ask side is heavier. For orders above $50,000, the sell side is heavier.
■ My Take

Let's lay out the $USDC data and take a look.
■ Structure
Current price 1.0012, up 0.01% over 24 hours, with a trading volume of 933 million. The price is at the 93% level of the 24-hour range.
■ Indicators
RSI(14) is 62.4, indicating strength.
The MACD histogram is above the zero line; bullish momentum is still in play.
KDJ J value is 98, entering overbought territory.
Bollinger Bands: upper 1 / middle 1 / lower 1.
Volume has fallen to 0.1 times the 7-day average. Without volume, there's no direction.
■ Order Book
There are 54841313.0000 on the bid across the top 20 levels and 9485928.0000 on the ask; bids are thicker. For orders over $50,000, the bid side is deeper.
■ My Take
Overall, this level looks bearish, but this is not advice of any kind—I'm just laying out my own reasoning.

Let's lay out the $BTC data and take a look.
■ Structure
Current price 80,756.5000, 24-hour change -1.39%, trading volume 859 million. Price is at the 21% mark of the 24-hour range.
■ Indicators
RSI(14) 41.6, on the weak side but not at an extreme.
The MACD histogram is above the zero line, so bulls are still in the game.
KDJ J value 78, around the midpoint.
Bollinger Bands: upper 81,370 / middle 80,882 / lower 80,394.
Volume has fallen to 0.1 times the 7-day average. Without volume, there's no direction.
■ Order Book
Buy orders across the top 20 levels total 10.8777, while sell orders total 11.4643—roughly balanced. For large orders over $50,000, the buy side is deeper.

I just finished scanning the entire market, and one phenomenon is worth noting.
At 20:34 Beijing time on 2026-10-24, the following coins on Binance spot USDT pairs simultaneously entered the RSI(14) zone below 32:
$ZEC (23), $PEPE (23), $WLD (24)
More notably, the MACD histograms for all 8 coins are below the zero line but have narrowed, while trading volume has generally fallen to 0.3–0.5 times the 7-day average.
This combination of “multiple coins simultaneously oversold + shrinking volume + narrowing momentum” is uncommon in historical data. It usually means selling pressure is easing, but it could also just be a breather in a continued downtrend.

At 20:31 Beijing time on 2026-10-24, BTC was at $80,752, down 1.19% over 24 hours, with $910 million in trading volume.
A few figures worth noting:
· RSI(14) 47.9, somewhat weak but not in extreme territory
· Volume has fallen to 0.35× the 7-day average
· Price is at the 19% level of the 24-hour range
· Bollinger Bands: upper $81,581 / middle $80,962 / lower $80,343
· ATR(14) 0.34%, volatility is low
Low volume + low volatility + lower-middle range: this combination does not point in a direction on its own, but it does provide a framework to watch:
If this is accumulation, volume will usually pick up modestly before a breakout; if this is a continuation pattern, it often resolves with a high-volume breakdown.

After every halving, the market enters another cycle narrative that gets discussed over and over. But what really deserves attention isn’t the calendar—it’s three changes in on-chain structure.
1. The behavior of long-term holders has changed.
Since the 2024 halving, exchange balances have continued to decline. But this time, the decline isn’t a sign of panic selling; it’s a structural shift driven by absorption through ETF channels. This means the sources of selling pressure going forward will be completely different from those in the previous cycle.
2. Volatility in miners’ holdings is rising.
Changes in miner reserves are beginning to decouple from the pace at which block subsidies are received. This means that some mining revenue is no longer dependent on subsidies, but is instead shifting toward the trading and fee markets. This transition warrants additional monitoring.