The counterfeit total market cap is currently testing a key resistance level.
After the past two weekly MACD crossovers bullish, each time it went through a not-insignificant stretch of行情.
Now the same signal is back. If it breaks through, there is plenty of upside room; if it gets rejected, there is also a clearly defined defensive zone.
The direction hasn’t been decided yet, but the time window is narrowing.
81K is the position that determines how this cycle will play out.
The 50-week moving average is pressing down here. The MACD and RSI have already turned upward, but indicators are only a forward-looking signal—if price doesn’t confirm, it’s all for nothing.
So far, there have already been several consecutive rejections at this level, and there truly is sell-side liquidity above.
If it still can’t break through this time, the long-side structure may be weakened further.
The weekly chart has just closed near the 50-week moving average—80,349. This is a test, not a breakout. The direction hasn’t been decided yet; wait for the next candle to confirm.
If next week can hold above it and extend upward, then this level will become support.
If it gets rejected, it may need to pull back to a lower area.
There’s no conclusion right now—let the market choose.
The weekly SuperTrend has just turned green—this is the first time since November 2025.
The last time this signal appeared was in January 2023, when BTC had just come out of the 15K bottom, and then it went on to rally all the way to 126K.
The instances of turning green in 2019 and 2020 also coincided with major trending market moves.
A clear fact is this: at the weekly timeframe, SuperTrend has never turned from red to green during a bear market—every time it turns green, it marks the start of a new trend cycle.
After SuperTrend flipped long in 2021, BTC indeed moved further—though it was the last leg within the top structure.
The current backdrop is similar to then: price has just rebounded from the bottom, and SuperTrend has confirmed the change in trend, but there is a clear resistance zone around the 82K area above.
Going long is a fact, but its significance depends on how price moves—not on the signal itself.
The official account is in South Africa—nothing really new there.
What’s key is that it’s truly tied to Hunter Biden—his own person is included in the founding team, and the official Twitter directly follows the project account.
30% of the tokens are held by the team; after a 6-month lockup, they are released over the following two years.
20% is a direct air drop to holders of $TRUMP, taking over the traffic pool from the previous political meme round.
At this position of 81K, it determines how the current cycle will play out.
The 50-week moving average is pressing down here. The MACD and RSI indicators have already turned up, but indicators are only leading signals—without price confirmation, it’s pointless.
So far, there have already been several consecutive rejections at this level, and sell-side orders above do exist.
If it still can’t break through this time, the long-biased structure may be weakened further.
The structure is solid, and the quantities are there too. Once this position is confirmed and holds firm, the space above will be larger than you’d imagine.
Not every breakthrough is worth chasing, but this one is a bit different.
Saying that ETH is about to collapse—I think that’s a bit much.
Right now, the price is ranging between 2400 and 2600. There’s support below 2400 and resistance above 2600, which looks more like the market is digesting the previous upswing.
On-chain data also shows that the short-term holders’ cost basis is around 2430. Only if it breaks below 2300 would that be truly dangerous. But the market sentiment is still in the recovery phase, so saying “collapse” directly feels a bit deliberate.
The monthly structure in 2026 looks very similar to the period near the bottom at the end of 2022.
Back then, the movement was also like this: consolidation, narrowing, and then a bullish candle to confirm the direction.
If it were to be fully replicated, the current position is roughly equivalent to that area at the end of 2022—just coming out of the bottom, but the market still does not fully believe it.
On Tuesday, small business confidence and consumer credit; on Thursday, inflation and employment data; on Friday, the CPI that will decide market sentiment.
Several key data releases are concentrated in this week, with a long weekend in between.
Volatility on Thursday and Friday may be greater than usual.
Many people are looking at the price, but what really determines the direction is this chart.
WALCL started in 2022 with QT, and kept shrinking to 6.6 trillion, pulling out 2.4 trillion in liquidity. BTC fell from 69K to 15K.
Now QT has officially ended, and the direction has reversed. The Fed has started expanding its balance sheet again, adding nearly 60 billion in a single week last week.
The same signal last appeared in 2020, and what happened after that needs no explanation.
Historically, this level is often not a good buying point, but it is not a selling point either. It is a time to reduce positions, adjust the structure, and let profits run.
Wait until it climbs above 30 before making a move. No rush now.