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🎙️ 0819 transfer or send flowers, hello collect on delivery 1,800 -0821 where to wait for the callback?-----market scan recap & trading plan [BTC/ETH/SOL]
260820 Daily Market Analysis - The Bear Side Is Strict
It’s been a long time since I saw the bulls celebrating wildly. Since June, last night’s sharp surge should be one of the few massive rallies in the near term; the last time I saw something like that was back in November last year. I have to say the bulls have truly built up their strength gradually and are now reaping the rewards; the spot I copied earlier has turned green again. First, let’s talk about what caused the rally to surge. Due to the U.S. bond crisis, the auction situation for long-term U.S. Treasuries—especially those with maturities of more than 10 years up to 30 years—has not been satisfactory. This has caused U.S. Treasury yields to spike, which has led to the U.S. dollar staying weak. In a short period, a clearly apparent liquidity crisis emerged. And the U.S. stock market hit 7,800 last week, after which momentum weakened. And this week it has turned weak with choppy, sideways trading. At the same time, data this month has weakened and further reduced rate-hike expectations, while the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting minutes from last night were overall relatively hawkish.
Last week was another fairly boring one. In the short term, the market remains divided with stocks strong and coins weak. Bitcoin remains in low-level consolidation at the daily and weekly levels, while volatility continues to narrow. As in my previous view, this is usually a sign of a buildup before a directional move.
$BTC Last Sunday’s daily line continued to stay in a choppy downward move. It wasn’t until Monday morning that it began to stop the decline and rebound. The intraday rebound strength wasn’t strong. After pulling back to the 624 area, there wasn’t any obvious increase in volume. In the morning, the shrinking-volume rebound and retest toward the 638 area caused the price to temporarily pause there while waiting. In the evening, watch whether the area around 638 above can break through. The support around 624 below is the short-term location to reduce shorts and take profit. There will be some liquidity buy orders waiting in ambush—don’t fight it for too long.
$SNDK In the US stock after-hours session, this particular stock—meaning 1733—however, in the futures market it's 1775. This indicates that in the futures market, some big players have already been liquidated. The sharp drop in open positions over a short period also confirms this claim.
Since last week, the funding fee has shown a clear negative premium. And the price hasn’t fallen noticeably, especially after the upcoming investors’ positive developments are realized. So in the short term, this is clearly a short squeeze. The question is: when will it stop? With no major changes in fundamentals, it depends on when the big bear shorting the US stocks—i.e., Michael Burry—will surrender, although he is shorting Micron. The three major players in Hai Dali’s lineup are moving basically in sync. And after the Korean market and KOSPI, jointly with the Korea-US efforts to support the market, the rebound has recently turned strong.
In the short term, the trend is starting to gradually move out of the 123 reversal. For all subsequent pullbacks, 1400–1500 is an important support/resistance level. Especially for the short positions that were trapped earlier—most of them will choose to close and exit here. Secondly, long positions looking to get in during a waiting opportunity will also choose to lay in positions here. The combination of the two further strengthens the buying power in this area. #SNDK分析
260814 Daily Market Outlook Analysis - Stocks Rise, Crypto Crashes
First, let’s talk about US stocks. The S&P 7,800 has been touched. Individual stocks, especially AI and storage, have once again kicked off a rally. Especially the storage “Three Dummies” [Hai Dalì]. SanDisk announced to investors on the day about its investment returns for the next two years being 100% returned to shareholders. Bullish expectations instantly boosted the market value of storage “Three Dummies.” Before that, I didn’t know whether anyone had noticed that the fundamentals PPI data suddenly came in “cold” again—below expectations. It suggests that inflation seems to be under control, and that it’s starting to cool down (personally I’m doubtful). Second, there was also that surprise “cold” in the prior Nonfarm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims data. Employment is starting to weaken. This is a piece of news that undermines expectations for further rate hikes.
260812 Daily Market Analysis - CPI Throws a Curveball
Before the CPI data, the US stock market has still been holding at high levels with a narrow-range consolidation these past few days. There isn’t much short-term volatility as it waits for the CPI data to provide direction. On the other hand, gold remains in a long position today. Overall it is still relatively strong, and gold’s initial upswing occurred relatively early. In the short term, the CPI data is unlikely to easily affect the continuation of the bullish trend. $BTC The crypto sector has been continuously weak lately. After completing two rounds of small selloffs over the past two days, the short positions previously held have been reduced. After breaking below the 638 area and retesting to around 633, an oversold rebound begins today. Before the CPI data, it starts to rebound as well; typically it ends in the form of price poking up and down with wicks.
Last night, U.S. stocks remained strong, and stocks and crypto again staged a sharp divergence—stocks rose while crypto fell. In the short term, price performance and market capital flows are still continuously flowing back into the U.S. stock market. This can be clearly seen as well from the ETF inflow/outflow data mentioned earlier. The most important CPI data this week will be released tomorrow. July’s CPI was the month when oil prices rebounded sharply. Recent employment data shows a slowdown in the pace of growth; if tomorrow’s CPI data comes in clearly above expectations, then for the market in the short term it is undoubtedly a major negative. Especially given that the Fed is currently operating in the context of [protecting jobs] and [fighting inflation].
From late June to July, selling pressure on crypto ETFs continued to ease, with inflows starting to pick up gradually. Last Friday’s major non-farm payrolls once again came as a surprise—gold continued last week’s uptrend. This surprise employment data almost put out expectations for rate hikes in September, and even for the rest of the year. And as the Fed talks tough while still not daring to actually press the rate-hike button, you hear the “wolf is coming” story so many times that the market has started to reprice the Fed’s credibility again. In other words, the market is betting that there are no bullets in your gun—that the U.S. Federal Reserve would never dare to raise rates.