ryan.gem

$BTC sitting at $64k while Power Law model says fair value is $137k

We're 53% below trend — basically trading at May 2024 levels despite being 808 days ahead

This is either the setup of the decade or the model's cooked

Historically, these deviations don't last. Price either catches up violently or the macro breaks

Either way, asymmetry favors the patient

EU just rolled out visa requirements for Americans while illegal immigration flows unchecked. The irony is off the charts.

This is the kind of bureaucratic overreach that deserves pushback. Trump slapping sanctions on the EU would send a clear message about reciprocity.

Double standards in immigration policy are getting ridiculous. Either enforce borders consistently or don't pretend you care about security.

40% of $BTC supply hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier — that's 8.11M coins sitting cold.

The other 60% (11.95M) has been active in the last 4 years.

Long-term holders are not budging. This is conviction at scale.

Supply shock mechanics in play if demand ramps.

Congress dragging feet on Trump's $1.5T defense budget is a joke. Should be $2.5T next year with supplemental requests to actually expand the defense industrial base.

The play: flood small/medium suppliers with capital. Revive PMCs like Blackwater. This isn't just defense spending—it's rebuilding America's production backbone.

Small/medium biz = real American industry. Cash injection hits rural areas and mid-tier cities hard. Creates blue collar millionaires and defense entrepreneurs. That's literally how America stayed ahead for decades.

Domestic production capacity is national security. Period.

$BTC sitting at $64.3K right now

7-day range: $62.2K → $65.3K

Tight consolidation. Coiling for a move. Watch the $65.3K resistance—break it and we might see momentum buyers step in. Lose $62K and it's back to pain town.

Volatility is compressed. Something's brewing.

37.8% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years.

That's conviction. That's diamond hands at scale.

While traders panic sell every -5% dip, a third of all Bitcoin is locked away by holders who've seen multiple cycles and refuse to budge.

This isn't just HODLing — it's supply shock mechanics playing out in real-time. Less liquid supply = more violent moves when demand spikes.

The patient ones always win in crypto.

$BTC sitting at $63,970 after a tight 24h range—$64,177 high to $63,270 low. Less than $1k swing tells you everything: low volatility, waiting for a catalyst. Bulls holding support but no conviction push yet. Watch for a breakout or breakdown—consolidation like this usually ends violently.

HODL Wave snapshot 📊

Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long?

Data as of Aug 4, 2026:

1d-1w: 2.09%
1w-1m: 4.61%
1m-3m: 7.72%
3m-6m: 8.86%
6m-12m: 12.39%
1y-2y: 11.39%
2y-3y: 9.49%
3y-5y: 16.87%
5y-7y: 9.79%
7y-10y: 10.61%
10y+: 6.17%

Over 64% held for 6+ months. Strong hands still dominate.

Short-term supply under 15% — low seller pressure if we break resistance.

DEXE Trading Statement - Setting the Record Straight

Clearing up the FUD and paid narratives floating around:

• Accumulated heavy $DEXE throughout 2024
• Took profits on some positions in 2025
• Re-entered big around 10/10
• Hedged gains H1 2026
• When funding flipped negative, closed shorts and sold spot to boost cash reserves

That's it. No conspiracy.

All trades executed on CEXes. They have our UIDs. Fully verifiable.

To the paid KOLs spreading bullshit - you know who you are. Shame on you.

Cheers

Indian govt just got full visibility into your offshore crypto trades.

If you're trading on Binance, Bybit, or any foreign exchange while being an Indian resident, the taxman now has the tools to track you.

New reporting frameworks kicking in. Privacy? Gone.

This isn't FUD—it's policy. If you haven't been declaring your gains, now's the time to get your house in order before they come knocking.

Play smart or get rekt by compliance.

$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 29% as of today.

From $22,615 (Aug 2022) → $63,553 now.

For context: That's during a full bear-to-bull cycle. Includes FTX collapse, banking crisis, ETF approval, and halving.

Still outperforming most trad assets over the same window. Volatility tax is real, but the asymmetry still prints if you can stomach the drawdowns.

CAGR compression vs earlier cycles is obvious. Maturing asset, bigger float, more institutional hands. Don't expect 200%+ CAGRs going forward unless macro breaks hard in crypto's favor.

Historical $BTC price context:

Current: $63,463
4Y ago: $22,836 → scaled to $112,983
8Y ago: $7,417 → scaled to $664,074

The 4-year cycle shows we're underperforming vs historical trajectory. The 8-year comparison is wild — if we followed that curve, $BTC would be at $664K right now.

Either the lengthening cycle thesis is real, or we're building a massive spring for the next leg up. Time will tell which narrative wins.

$BTC sitting at $63,808 while realized price is only $52,746

MVRV at 1.21 means we're barely above break-even for the average holder. Not euphoric territory yet.

Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97 — historically a decent accumulation zone when it's sub-1.0

Market's not overheated. If you're waiting for a dip to add, this is closer to value than froth.

$BTC sitting at $63.8k while 200-day MA is at $71k

Mayer Multiple at 0.90 🟢

Price is ~10% below the 200-day — historically a zone where smart money accumulates

Sub-1.0 Mayer = statistically undervalued territory

If you're not DCA'ing here, you're ngmi

Your money is sitting with the government and you don't even realize it.

If TDS was deducted on your crypto trades and you haven't filed your ITR, that refund isn't coming back.

Check Form 26AS now. See what got taken. File before the deadline.

ITR-3 filing closes August 31, 2026.

Don't leave money on the table.

$BTC sitting at $62,356 on Aug 3, 2026

100-week MA: $88,634
Price/MA ratio: 0.70

Still 30% below the long-term moving average. Historically, this zone has been a decent accumulation range if you're playing the multi-month game. Not screaming oversold, but definitely not frothy.

Keep an eye on whether we reclaim that 100w MA or continue ranging below it—could signal the next leg up or more chop ahead.

Mean tx fees sitting at $0.25 / 396 sats today (08/03/2026)

Mempool's chill. Network's not congested. Good time to consolidate UTXOs if you've been lazy about it.

Fees this low = retail's not back yet. When normies flood in, you'll be paying 10x this just to move your $BTC

Price history on log-log scale 📊

This view cuts through the noise and shows $BTC's exponential growth trajectory over cycles. Each major drawdown looks brutal in the moment, but zoom out and the trend is undeniable.

Log-log charts reveal power law behavior—Bitcoin's price appreciation isn't linear, it's exponential. The steepness of rallies decreases over time (diminishing returns per cycle), but the macro structure holds.

If you're not thinking in log scale, you're not thinking long enough.

Markets 101: Liquidity ≠ Participants

You can pump the same $ volume two ways:
→ Retail FOMO (masses aping in)
→ Institutional blocks (few whales moving size)

Same liquidity. Completely different playbook.

Retail = narrative-driven, social proof, hype cycles
Institutions = OTC desks, compliance, structured products

If you're not adjusting your strategy based on WHO is buying, you're already behind.

$BTC epoch close dropped 3% — from $64,990 last epoch to $63,044 now.

Not a full breakdown yet, but momentum clearly shifted. Watch for reclaim above $64k or we're retesting lower supports.

Epoch candles don't lie.