sukubunga

Raise rates in December or hold? The Fed hasn’t given an answer — and the market is split right down the middle.

View A — hike: October jobs data came in hot, with +165,000 new jobs vs. a consensus of 65,000 (BLS via Reuters, Nov. 6), unemployment fell to 4.1%, and PCE inflation is still at 3.6%. Two FOMC members already called for a hike at the Oct. 28 meeting, and Chair Warsh hasn’t ruled out December. Markets put the odds of a hike at around 67–77%.

View B — hold: those odds have actually fallen from around 84% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch — the market isn’t becoming more confident. The Nasdaq just had its worst day since April 2025, and October CPI, due Tuesday, Nov. 10, could cool everything down if the numbers are mild. The September hike hasn’t fully worked its way through the real economy yet, either.

My lean: a hike is still more likely — the data is too hot to ignore. But I’d change my mind if CPI is mild on Nov. 10: the odds could fall quickly, giving BTC — now around $75,764, holding just above its 50-week average at $75,552 — room to breathe again. On the other hand, hot CPI would lock in a hike and put that level to the test.

Reply in the comments: A or B — and your strongest reason.

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#DebatDuaSisi #TheFed #SukuBunga $BTC

The Bank of England has just raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and its signals are still hawkish.

Facts: The BoE raised the Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00% on 5 Nov 2026 (Reuters, 5 Nov). The MPC voted 8-1; Catherine Mann wanted a 50-bps increase to 4.25%. UK inflation is projected to reach around 5% by mid-2027, well above the 2% target. The BoE signaled further hikes if the US-Iran conflict continues. This is the first increase since August 2023.

My take: this rounds out today's global hawkish picture — markets are already pricing in around an 80% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December. Two major central banks tightening at the same time means headwinds for risk assets. BTC responded immediately: from around $80,390 before the announcement to around $80,126 afterward. Not a crash, but a sign that the market sees this as pressure, not easing.

What I'm watching: Governor Bailey's speech tonight, US jobless claims at 20:30 WIB, and whether BTC holds above $80,000.

Do you think central banks tightening in unison will put more pressure on BTC in the short term, or has the market already priced it in?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#BankOfEngland #SukuBunga $BTC

The Fed officially HOLDS rates at 3.75–4.00% — in line with market expectations, but two dissenting votes actually called for a HIKE, not a cut.

Facts: The FOMC decision was made on October 28, 2026, and announced on October 29 at 01:00 WIB. The Fed maintained its target range of 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Two dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, voted to raise rates by 25 basis points. Their reasoning: economic activity remains strong, the labor market is relatively stable, but inflation remains elevated — September CPI was 3.7% year over year, well above the 2% target. Before the decision, around 90% of market participants had already expected rates to hold.

My take: this isn’t dovish news. The dissent is hawkish, so don’t read this decision as a green light for a rally. The market reaction was flat, with a slight upward bias: BTC moved from around $80.477 to around $80.902, briefly touching $81.157; ETH moved from around $2.332 to $2.347; SOL from around $101,0 to $101,55. Levels I’m watching: the pre-FOMC high of $81.796 above, and the $80.000 area below if Powell’s tone turns hawkish.

What I’m watching next: Powell’s ongoing press conference, followed by the GDP and PCE data tonight at 19:30 WIB — those two releases will determine whether the odds of a December hike (currently around 75%) increase or decrease.

What do you think — does this hawkish dissent actually make a December hike more certain?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#FOMC #SukuBunga $BTC $ETH