fedwatch

The number came in hot, and Bitcoin walked straight into the floor we've been watching all week.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast, and core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% — both 0.1 point hotter than expected, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 13:30 UTC. Core has now printed 0.3% three months running. There is no year-over-year rate this time: last year's shutdown left the BLS without October 2025 prices to compare against.
I've been staring at the $73,510 line since Sunday — it held four times, and minutes after the print Bitcoin was fourteen dollars away from giving way. That's not a level anymore, it's a dare.
$BTC was $74,329.71 at 12:12 UTC (Finnhub). Minutes after the release it slid to $73,524.73 and sits at $73,975.74 at 13:52 UTC (Binance data-api). From today's high of $75,568.18 to that low is a swing of more than $2,000 in one session, and the 50-week line at $75,562 — poked and rejected again this morning — is now the ceiling, not the floor.
Why it matters: this was the last full CPI reading before the Fed's December 8–9 meeting, and the market's answer was instant. Traders now price an 83% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December (Yahoo Finance). Fed Governor Waller had warned before the print that a core reading around 0.3% or higher could demand "a stronger policy move" — and that's exactly what we got. Anyone long above $75,000 is no longer riding a bounce; they're defending a floor while the Fed turns hawkish.
And here's the part I have to own plainly: $ETH 's $2,060 floor — the one I said held four straight sessions — broke intraday. It dipped to $2,028.32 before clawing back to $2,073.77. The reclaim is holding for now, but the floor we trusted all week is cracked. $SOL kept sliding under its own broken $85.14 floor too: $84.43 now, day low $82.61. When the majors' floors break on the same print, it's not one coin's problem — it's the whole market repricing the December hike.
The levels that decide what happens next:
$BTC $73,510 is the line. A daily close under it opens $72,000, then $70,000 — the hot-CPI call I flagged this morning, confirmed. Hold it and reclaim $75,562, and this dip becomes a shakeout with $76,416 next. $ETH needs to close back above $2,060 to repair the break; a close under it opens $2,000, and a reclaim of $2,155 (200-day SMA) would undo the damage. $SOL stays broken under $85.14 unless it closes back above it.
What would prove me wrong: if $BTC closes today above $75,562, the hot-CPI-break call is wrong and I'll say so in the next post — the floor held and the dip was a shakeout. The other risk is the data itself: no year-over-year number exists this month, and the PCE reading later in November could soften the December odds fast. ETF flows are still bleeding — $201 million out on November 9, the third straight day, BlackRock's IBIT on seven straight redemptions (Farside via CoinDesk) — so there is no big buyer stepping in under us. Fear & Greed sits at 32, still Fear.
Next update trigger: tonight's daily close against $73,510. That's the number that decides whether this was a scare or a break.
Does $73,510 hold into the close, or does the hot print finally break it — and if it breaks, where do you step in, $72,000 or $70,000?
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#BTC #CPI #FedWatch

STOP..... STOP..... STOP 🚨
$BTC 🇺🇸 U.S. CPI inflation data will be released today at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time!
Markets are bracing for an important inflation update as the October Consumer Price Index report is released today.
⚠️ Due to disruptions caused by the 2025 U.S. government shutdown, year-over-year comparisons for the Consumer Price Index will not be available for most indicators.