Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?
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Bullish
🚨 FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: WHAT CRYPTO TRADERS NEED TO KNOW 🇺🇸
The global financial and crypto markets are laser-focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy move.
$ASTER
{future}(ASTERUSDT)
⚡ Key Details & Timeline:
Meeting Dates: October 27–28
Rate Decision Release: October 28 at 9:00 PM
Press Conference: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks at 9:30 PM
$NEAR
{future}(NEARUSDT)
📊 Current Market Expectations:
October Decision: A majority of economists expect the Fed to pause/hold rates in the current 3.75%–4.00% range during the October meeting.
December Outlook: A recent Reuters survey reveals that 100% of polled economists project an interest rate hike in December as inflation pressures linger.
💡 Impact on Crypto ($BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
):
Short-Term Reaction: An October pause could offer short-term relief for BTC and altcoins.
Macro Risk: Expectations of a December hike keep high-risk assets cautious, as tighter liquidity usually strengthens the US Dollar.
👀 How are you positioning your portfolio before the announcement?
#Fed #CryptoNews #bitcoin #EthereumSurpasses$2500
🚨 FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: WHAT CRYPTO TRADERS NEED TO KNOW 🇺🇸
The global financial and crypto markets are laser-focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy move.
$ASTER
⚡ Key Details & Timeline:
Meeting Dates: October 27–28
Rate Decision Release: October 28 at 9:00 PM
Press Conference: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks at 9:30 PM
$NEAR
📊 Current Market Expectations:
October Decision: A majority of economists expect the Fed to pause/hold rates in the current 3.75%–4.00% range during the October meeting.
December Outlook: A recent Reuters survey reveals that 100% of polled economists project an interest rate hike in December as inflation pressures linger.
💡 Impact on Crypto ($BTC
):
Short-Term Reaction: An October pause could offer short-term relief for BTC and altcoins.
Macro Risk: Expectations of a December hike keep high-risk assets cautious, as tighter liquidity usually strengthens the US Dollar.
👀 How are you positioning your portfolio before the announcement?
#Fed #CryptoNews #bitcoin #EthereumSurpasses$2500
The global financial and crypto markets are laser-focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy move.
$ASTER
⚡ Key Details & Timeline:
Meeting Dates: October 27–28
Rate Decision Release: October 28 at 9:00 PM
Press Conference: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks at 9:30 PM
$NEAR
📊 Current Market Expectations:
October Decision: A majority of economists expect the Fed to pause/hold rates in the current 3.75%–4.00% range during the October meeting.
December Outlook: A recent Reuters survey reveals that 100% of polled economists project an interest rate hike in December as inflation pressures linger.
💡 Impact on Crypto ($BTC
):
Short-Term Reaction: An October pause could offer short-term relief for BTC and altcoins.
Macro Risk: Expectations of a December hike keep high-risk assets cautious, as tighter liquidity usually strengthens the US Dollar.
👀 How are you positioning your portfolio before the announcement?
#Fed #CryptoNews #bitcoin #EthereumSurpasses$2500
1
309
Markets just walked back the Fed's hawkish script — and Bitcoin caught the falling knife.
CME FedWatch now prices an October hike at just 8%, down from 28% a week ago. Traders are even cooling on December: odds of no hike at all through year-end rose to 16% — even though a survey of 100 economists unanimously still expects a December increase. Fed speakers keep insisting on one more hike this year; the market is quietly betting against them.
Bonds got the safety bid — the 10-year yield dropped ~13bps to a one-month low near 5.02% — while AI stocks sold off and $BTC round-tripped from ~$85K to ~$81.6K, wiping out $431M in liquidations on both sides. Roughly $173M in shorts died on the climb; longs took the bigger hit on the way down.
The read: this is a textbook risk-off rotation, and Bitcoin is trading with Nasdaq, not gold.
Tape: BTC $81,628 (-3.5%/24h), ETH $2,400 (-4.3%).
If the Fed really is done, why is crypto selling off instead of rallying? DYOR.
#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC
Markets just walked back the Fed's hawkish script — and Bitcoin caught the falling knife.
CME FedWatch now prices an October hike at just 8%, down from 28% a week ago. Traders are even cooling on December: odds of no hike at all through year-end rose to 16% — even though a survey of 100 economists unanimously still expects a December increase. Fed speakers keep insisting on one more hike this year; the market is quietly betting against them.
Bonds got the safety bid — the 10-year yield dropped ~13bps to a one-month low near 5.02% — while AI stocks sold off and $BTC round-tripped from ~$85K to ~$81.6K, wiping out $431M in liquidations on both sides. Roughly $173M in shorts died on the climb; longs took the bigger hit on the way down.
The read: this is a textbook risk-off rotation, and Bitcoin is trading with Nasdaq, not gold.
Tape: BTC $81,628 (-3.5%/24h), ETH $2,400 (-4.3%).
If the Fed really is done, why is crypto selling off instead of rallying? DYOR.
#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC
CME FedWatch now prices an October hike at just 8%, down from 28% a week ago. Traders are even cooling on December: odds of no hike at all through year-end rose to 16% — even though a survey of 100 economists unanimously still expects a December increase. Fed speakers keep insisting on one more hike this year; the market is quietly betting against them.
Bonds got the safety bid — the 10-year yield dropped ~13bps to a one-month low near 5.02% — while AI stocks sold off and $BTC round-tripped from ~$85K to ~$81.6K, wiping out $431M in liquidations on both sides. Roughly $173M in shorts died on the climb; longs took the bigger hit on the way down.
The read: this is a textbook risk-off rotation, and Bitcoin is trading with Nasdaq, not gold.
Tape: BTC $81,628 (-3.5%/24h), ETH $2,400 (-4.3%).
If the Fed really is done, why is crypto selling off instead of rallying? DYOR.
#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC
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The Fed is priced to hold next week, so I'm watching the long end for gold and BitcoinTuesday's settle had the odds of a 28 October hike at 15.5%, down from 18.8% the session before, and there's still no cut priced at any meeting out to December 2027. At those odds I think next week's FOMC is likely a hold, and for $XAU and $BTC the bigger variable going into it is what the long end of the Treasury curve does.
Why the long end
Gold and Bitcoin pay no cash flow, so you discount them at the long real yield, and when that rises they've got nothing to offset it with. I read Bitcoin as the purest duration asset in the market, with gold close behind it. You could see it on 1 September and again on 15-16 September, when the assets with no cash flow were the first to give as yields climbed.
What's priced for the Fed
The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, 12-0, and the dots put the median at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027, with cuts only from 2028. Tuesday's settle has 1.04 hikes by December, 1.50 by January, 2.56 by April 2027 and 3.19 by October 2027. The front got a little less hawkish on the day while the back of the strip added, 3.11 to 3.19 by next October.
Warsh said on 16 October that the data had broadly conformed with what the Fed expected when it hiked. I read that as taking the urgency off the 28th while leaving October and December both open, which fits a front-month number in the teens. Every voter who's spoken since the hike leans to a hike or a hold... Hammack thinks conditions aren't restrictive and wants to move quicker, and Waller thinks higher yields are already doing some of the work. There's no new dot plot at this meeting either, that comes on 8-9 December.
Where the yield move came from
The ACM model had the 10-year term premium at +80.0bp on 19 October, the 99th percentile since 2015. Kim-Wright had it at +98.6bp on 16 October, the 100th percentile since 2015, so both models have it at the top of their post-2015 range.
ACM splits the move differently depending on how far back you look. Over the past year the fitted 10-year rose 105.8bp and term premium was about a quarter of it, so most of that was the market pricing a higher Fed path. Over the past month it rose 15.3bp and term premium was 110% of the move, which means the expected path actually fell and the premium did more than all the work. Over the last week the 10-year fell 10.4bp and 10.3bp of that was term premium coming back out.
So the recent swings, both ways, have come from the extra yield investors want for holding long bonds, and that responds to supply and to who's buying. At his September press conference Warsh listed government supply, weak savings, defence spending and capex among the reasons for higher long yields (hyperscalers competing for capital included), and on 16 October he named the AI build as one of the things pushing inflation up. I think the AI financing story that $QQQ trades is as much a bond-market story as an equity one, and Warsh has pointed at it twice now.
The 20-year kink
The 20-year now yields more than the 30-year, and today's $13bn 20-year auction is the long end's test this week. Bond volatility is off its peak but still higher than for most of the year, and my liquidity gauge reads worse than it did in September. I'd want both lower before calling liquidity back.
The case the other way
The data under the headlines is softer than the inflation prints. September PPI rose 1.3% on the month, but producer energy was +10.8% and core goods only +0.3%, so the oil move hasn't reached core goods yet. The retail sales control group rose only 0.1%, and the Beige Book had just 2 of 12 districts growing. Canada looks the same, with September CPI up to 3.1% on oil while the Bank of Canada's core measures averaged 1.85%, their lowest in six years.
There's a fair counter to the term-premium read too. Back in August, US nominal income was growing about 4.5% a year against a 30-year near 5.3%, and on that framing the long end looked like a buy. Bonds did rally on 15 October during the AI-debt selloff, with the long end gaining more than the front, and I read that flattening as growth worry.
On gold itself, the monthly downtrend runs out in October without having reached its target, and I count that as a bullish variable. There's no weekly signal yet.
What's dated
Thursday has jobless claims, the leading index and a 5-year TIPS auction, and Friday the flash PMIs. The FOMC meets 27-28 October with Warsh's press conference, the BoJ decides on the 30th after Ueda said more hikes are coming with the pace tied to the yen, and the October monthly bar closes on the 31st, the same day as the Mt. Gox deadline. The US midterms are on 3 November.
At 15.5% the decision itself probably won't move much, so I think the press conference and how the 2027 strip trades around it could count for more with gold and Bitcoin than the rate call. A BoJ hike without a stated pace hasn't threatened the yen carry trade so far. One that comes with a pace might be a different story.
I'll be watching the result of today's 20-year auction and whether the ACM term premium keeps climbing into the 28th.
#Fed #FOMC #Gold #Bonds #Macro
The Fed is priced to hold next week, so I'm watching the long end for gold and Bitcoin
Tuesday's settle had the odds of a 28 October hike at 15.5%, down from 18.8% the session before, and there's still no cut priced at any meeting out to December 2027. At those odds I think next week's FOMC is likely a hold, and for $XAU and $BTC the bigger variable going into it is what the long end of the Treasury curve does.
Why the long end
Gold and Bitcoin pay no cash flow, so you discount them at the long real yield, and when that rises they've got nothing to offset it with. I read Bitcoin as the purest duration asset in the market, with gold close behind it. You could see it on 1 September and again on 15-16 September, when the assets with no cash flow were the first to give as yields climbed.
What's priced for the Fed
The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, 12-0, and the dots put the median at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027, with cuts only from 2028. Tuesday's settle has 1.04 hikes by December, 1.50 by January, 2.56 by April 2027 and 3.19 by October 2027. The front got a little less hawkish on the day while the back of the strip added, 3.11 to 3.19 by next October.
Warsh said on 16 October that the data had broadly conformed with what the Fed expected when it hiked. I read that as taking the urgency off the 28th while leaving October and December both open, which fits a front-month number in the teens. Every voter who's spoken since the hike leans to a hike or a hold... Hammack thinks conditions aren't restrictive and wants to move quicker, and Waller thinks higher yields are already doing some of the work. There's no new dot plot at this meeting either, that comes on 8-9 December.
Where the yield move came from
The ACM model had the 10-year term premium at +80.0bp on 19 October, the 99th percentile since 2015. Kim-Wright had it at +98.6bp on 16 October, the 100th percentile since 2015, so both models have it at the top of their post-2015 range.
ACM splits the move differently depending on how far back you look. Over the past year the fitted 10-year rose 105.8bp and term premium was about a quarter of it, so most of that was the market pricing a higher Fed path. Over the past month it rose 15.3bp and term premium was 110% of the move, which means the expected path actually fell and the premium did more than all the work. Over the last week the 10-year fell 10.4bp and 10.3bp of that was term premium coming back out.
So the recent swings, both ways, have come from the extra yield investors want for holding long bonds, and that responds to supply and to who's buying. At his September press conference Warsh listed government supply, weak savings, defence spending and capex among the reasons for higher long yields (hyperscalers competing for capital included), and on 16 October he named the AI build as one of the things pushing inflation up. I think the AI financing story that $QQQ trades is as much a bond-market story as an equity one, and Warsh has pointed at it twice now.
The 20-year kink
The 20-year now yields more than the 30-year, and today's $13bn 20-year auction is the long end's test this week. Bond volatility is off its peak but still higher than for most of the year, and my liquidity gauge reads worse than it did in September. I'd want both lower before calling liquidity back.
The case the other way
The data under the headlines is softer than the inflation prints. September PPI rose 1.3% on the month, but producer energy was +10.8% and core goods only +0.3%, so the oil move hasn't reached core goods yet. The retail sales control group rose only 0.1%, and the Beige Book had just 2 of 12 districts growing. Canada looks the same, with September CPI up to 3.1% on oil while the Bank of Canada's core measures averaged 1.85%, their lowest in six years.
There's a fair counter to the term-premium read too. Back in August, US nominal income was growing about 4.5% a year against a 30-year near 5.3%, and on that framing the long end looked like a buy. Bonds did rally on 15 October during the AI-debt selloff, with the long end gaining more than the front, and I read that flattening as growth worry.
On gold itself, the monthly downtrend runs out in October without having reached its target, and I count that as a bullish variable. There's no weekly signal yet.
What's dated
Thursday has jobless claims, the leading index and a 5-year TIPS auction, and Friday the flash PMIs. The FOMC meets 27-28 October with Warsh's press conference, the BoJ decides on the 30th after Ueda said more hikes are coming with the pace tied to the yen, and the October monthly bar closes on the 31st, the same day as the Mt. Gox deadline. The US midterms are on 3 November.
At 15.5% the decision itself probably won't move much, so I think the press conference and how the 2027 strip trades around it could count for more with gold and Bitcoin than the rate call. A BoJ hike without a stated pace hasn't threatened the yen carry trade so far. One that comes with a pace might be a different story.
I'll be watching the result of today's 20-year auction and whether the ACM term premium keeps climbing into the 28th.
#Fed #FOMC #Gold #Bonds #Macro
Why the long end
Gold and Bitcoin pay no cash flow, so you discount them at the long real yield, and when that rises they've got nothing to offset it with. I read Bitcoin as the purest duration asset in the market, with gold close behind it. You could see it on 1 September and again on 15-16 September, when the assets with no cash flow were the first to give as yields climbed.
What's priced for the Fed
The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, 12-0, and the dots put the median at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027, with cuts only from 2028. Tuesday's settle has 1.04 hikes by December, 1.50 by January, 2.56 by April 2027 and 3.19 by October 2027. The front got a little less hawkish on the day while the back of the strip added, 3.11 to 3.19 by next October.
Warsh said on 16 October that the data had broadly conformed with what the Fed expected when it hiked. I read that as taking the urgency off the 28th while leaving October and December both open, which fits a front-month number in the teens. Every voter who's spoken since the hike leans to a hike or a hold... Hammack thinks conditions aren't restrictive and wants to move quicker, and Waller thinks higher yields are already doing some of the work. There's no new dot plot at this meeting either, that comes on 8-9 December.
Where the yield move came from
The ACM model had the 10-year term premium at +80.0bp on 19 October, the 99th percentile since 2015. Kim-Wright had it at +98.6bp on 16 October, the 100th percentile since 2015, so both models have it at the top of their post-2015 range.
ACM splits the move differently depending on how far back you look. Over the past year the fitted 10-year rose 105.8bp and term premium was about a quarter of it, so most of that was the market pricing a higher Fed path. Over the past month it rose 15.3bp and term premium was 110% of the move, which means the expected path actually fell and the premium did more than all the work. Over the last week the 10-year fell 10.4bp and 10.3bp of that was term premium coming back out.
So the recent swings, both ways, have come from the extra yield investors want for holding long bonds, and that responds to supply and to who's buying. At his September press conference Warsh listed government supply, weak savings, defence spending and capex among the reasons for higher long yields (hyperscalers competing for capital included), and on 16 October he named the AI build as one of the things pushing inflation up. I think the AI financing story that $QQQ trades is as much a bond-market story as an equity one, and Warsh has pointed at it twice now.
The 20-year kink
The 20-year now yields more than the 30-year, and today's $13bn 20-year auction is the long end's test this week. Bond volatility is off its peak but still higher than for most of the year, and my liquidity gauge reads worse than it did in September. I'd want both lower before calling liquidity back.
The case the other way
The data under the headlines is softer than the inflation prints. September PPI rose 1.3% on the month, but producer energy was +10.8% and core goods only +0.3%, so the oil move hasn't reached core goods yet. The retail sales control group rose only 0.1%, and the Beige Book had just 2 of 12 districts growing. Canada looks the same, with September CPI up to 3.1% on oil while the Bank of Canada's core measures averaged 1.85%, their lowest in six years.
There's a fair counter to the term-premium read too. Back in August, US nominal income was growing about 4.5% a year against a 30-year near 5.3%, and on that framing the long end looked like a buy. Bonds did rally on 15 October during the AI-debt selloff, with the long end gaining more than the front, and I read that flattening as growth worry.
On gold itself, the monthly downtrend runs out in October without having reached its target, and I count that as a bullish variable. There's no weekly signal yet.
What's dated
Thursday has jobless claims, the leading index and a 5-year TIPS auction, and Friday the flash PMIs. The FOMC meets 27-28 October with Warsh's press conference, the BoJ decides on the 30th after Ueda said more hikes are coming with the pace tied to the yen, and the October monthly bar closes on the 31st, the same day as the Mt. Gox deadline. The US midterms are on 3 November.
At 15.5% the decision itself probably won't move much, so I think the press conference and how the 2027 strip trades around it could count for more with gold and Bitcoin than the rate call. A BoJ hike without a stated pace hasn't threatened the yen carry trade so far. One that comes with a pace might be a different story.
I'll be watching the result of today's 20-year auction and whether the ACM term premium keeps climbing into the 28th.
#Fed #FOMC #Gold #Bonds #Macro
156
Based on the latest changes in interest rate swap market pricing, traders are no longer fully pricing in further Fed rate hikes before year-end. Under the monetary policy framework led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, concerns about a marginal tightening in liquidity conditions are clearly easing.
This shift in macro sentiment is crucial. After the rate hike in September, expectations for the terminal rate were pushed sharply higher for a time. But recent macro indicators show that the economy is resilient and overheating pressures are easing, forcing overly pessimistic short positions to begin unwinding.
Across asset classes, the upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields has stalled, while the dollar index is showing signs of stalling and retreating at a key resistance level. A peak and stabilization in risk-free rate expectations typically directly improves the risk premium outlook for risk assets overall.
For the crypto market, this is undoubtedly an excellent liquidity catalyst. With the tail risk of further rate hikes receding, major assets such as $BTC are seeing strong buying support at structural support levels, and bullish market sentiment is rapidly recovering.🚀
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
Based on the latest changes in interest rate swap market pricing, traders are no longer fully pricing in further Fed rate hikes before year-end. Under the monetary policy framework led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, concerns about a marginal tightening in liquidity conditions are clearly easing.
This shift in macro sentiment is crucial. After the rate hike in September, expectations for the terminal rate were pushed sharply higher for a time. But recent macro indicators show that the economy is resilient and overheating pressures are easing, forcing overly pessimistic short positions to begin unwinding.
Across asset classes, the upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields has stalled, while the dollar index is showing signs of stalling and retreating at a key resistance level. A peak and stabilization in risk-free rate expectations typically directly improves the risk premium outlook for risk assets overall.
For the crypto market, this is undoubtedly an excellent liquidity catalyst. With the tail risk of further rate hikes receding, major assets such as $BTC are seeing strong buying support at structural support levels, and bullish market sentiment is rapidly recovering.🚀
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
This shift in macro sentiment is crucial. After the rate hike in September, expectations for the terminal rate were pushed sharply higher for a time. But recent macro indicators show that the economy is resilient and overheating pressures are easing, forcing overly pessimistic short positions to begin unwinding.
Across asset classes, the upward momentum in U.S. Treasury yields has stalled, while the dollar index is showing signs of stalling and retreating at a key resistance level. A peak and stabilization in risk-free rate expectations typically directly improves the risk premium outlook for risk assets overall.
For the crypto market, this is undoubtedly an excellent liquidity catalyst. With the tail risk of further rate hikes receding, major assets such as $BTC are seeing strong buying support at structural support levels, and bullish market sentiment is rapidly recovering.🚀
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
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Bearish
DXY BREAKS 101.51 AND HITS A 3-WEEK LOW — DOLLAR PLUNGING NOW! 💥💵📉
🔥 *THE HOOK:* THE DOLLAR JUST BROKE THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL OF THE MONTH! DXY is testing 101.51 live right now, a 3-week low is confirmed, and if it closes below that level, targets are 101.13 and 100.87!
📌 *WHAT HAPPENED:*
Live, Oct 22, 07:30 GMT: FXEmpire confirms DXY at 101.51 after falling -0.3% for the week, failing to hold onto gains from hot U.S. CPI (3.7% YoY) and PPI at 6.3%! The trigger was UK CPI surging to 3.5% vs. 3.4% expected, core CPI at 2.8% and services at 3.7% — the market is now pricing in a 100% chance of a BoE HIKE on Nov 5! NZ CPI came in weak at 0.7% vs. 0.8%, but the dollar didn’t react. 10Y yields falling to 5.07%, down 0.7%. The Fed is in total BLACKOUT: 84% chance of a HOLD on Oct 28 and 90% chance of a HIKE only in December, according to CME. Today at 12:30 GMT: Jobless Claims (200k forecast) — the last data release before the FOMC!
💡 *WHAT IT MEANS:*
The dollar is losing ground despite high U.S. inflation = the market is betting the Fed will have to hold in October and only resume hikes in December! Housing starts fell -5.2% vs. +1.9% expected, and pending home sales hit their lowest level since 2023 (-12.6% YoY) — the economy is slowing! ING says the balance of risks has gradually turned bearish for the dollar, not dramatically.
📈 *IMPACT ON CRYPTO: EXTREMELY BULLISH*
DXY at 101.51 was exactly the floor that held BTC at $81,765 yesterday! Below 101.50, the way opens for a rally to BTC $84k and $85k, where massive liquidations are stacked. Yesterday, ETFs brought in $541M ($524.8M BTC + $14.9M ETH) even as BTC fell — an enormous divergence showing institutional buying on the dip! If DXY confirms a close below 101.51 today, it’s a classic pre-FOMC risk-on trigger.
Will DXY hold 101.51, or will we see 100.87 today and BTC break $85k before the Fed?
#BTC #ETH #ETF #Fed #Crypto
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
DXY BREAKS 101.51 AND HITS A 3-WEEK LOW — DOLLAR PLUNGING NOW! 💥💵📉
🔥 *THE HOOK:* THE DOLLAR JUST BROKE THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL OF THE MONTH! DXY is testing 101.51 live right now, a 3-week low is confirmed, and if it closes below that level, targets are 101.13 and 100.87!
📌 *WHAT HAPPENED:*
Live, Oct 22, 07:30 GMT: FXEmpire confirms DXY at 101.51 after falling -0.3% for the week, failing to hold onto gains from hot U.S. CPI (3.7% YoY) and PPI at 6.3%! The trigger was UK CPI surging to 3.5% vs. 3.4% expected, core CPI at 2.8% and services at 3.7% — the market is now pricing in a 100% chance of a BoE HIKE on Nov 5! NZ CPI came in weak at 0.7% vs. 0.8%, but the dollar didn’t react. 10Y yields falling to 5.07%, down 0.7%. The Fed is in total BLACKOUT: 84% chance of a HOLD on Oct 28 and 90% chance of a HIKE only in December, according to CME. Today at 12:30 GMT: Jobless Claims (200k forecast) — the last data release before the FOMC!
💡 *WHAT IT MEANS:*
The dollar is losing ground despite high U.S. inflation = the market is betting the Fed will have to hold in October and only resume hikes in December! Housing starts fell -5.2% vs. +1.9% expected, and pending home sales hit their lowest level since 2023 (-12.6% YoY) — the economy is slowing! ING says the balance of risks has gradually turned bearish for the dollar, not dramatically.
📈 *IMPACT ON CRYPTO: EXTREMELY BULLISH*
DXY at 101.51 was exactly the floor that held BTC at $81,765 yesterday! Below 101.50, the way opens for a rally to BTC $84k and $85k, where massive liquidations are stacked. Yesterday, ETFs brought in $541M ($524.8M BTC + $14.9M ETH) even as BTC fell — an enormous divergence showing institutional buying on the dip! If DXY confirms a close below 101.51 today, it’s a classic pre-FOMC risk-on trigger.
Will DXY hold 101.51, or will we see 100.87 today and BTC break $85k before the Fed?
#BTC #ETH #ETF #Fed #Crypto
🔥 *THE HOOK:* THE DOLLAR JUST BROKE THE MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL OF THE MONTH! DXY is testing 101.51 live right now, a 3-week low is confirmed, and if it closes below that level, targets are 101.13 and 100.87!
📌 *WHAT HAPPENED:*
Live, Oct 22, 07:30 GMT: FXEmpire confirms DXY at 101.51 after falling -0.3% for the week, failing to hold onto gains from hot U.S. CPI (3.7% YoY) and PPI at 6.3%! The trigger was UK CPI surging to 3.5% vs. 3.4% expected, core CPI at 2.8% and services at 3.7% — the market is now pricing in a 100% chance of a BoE HIKE on Nov 5! NZ CPI came in weak at 0.7% vs. 0.8%, but the dollar didn’t react. 10Y yields falling to 5.07%, down 0.7%. The Fed is in total BLACKOUT: 84% chance of a HOLD on Oct 28 and 90% chance of a HIKE only in December, according to CME. Today at 12:30 GMT: Jobless Claims (200k forecast) — the last data release before the FOMC!
💡 *WHAT IT MEANS:*
The dollar is losing ground despite high U.S. inflation = the market is betting the Fed will have to hold in October and only resume hikes in December! Housing starts fell -5.2% vs. +1.9% expected, and pending home sales hit their lowest level since 2023 (-12.6% YoY) — the economy is slowing! ING says the balance of risks has gradually turned bearish for the dollar, not dramatically.
📈 *IMPACT ON CRYPTO: EXTREMELY BULLISH*
DXY at 101.51 was exactly the floor that held BTC at $81,765 yesterday! Below 101.50, the way opens for a rally to BTC $84k and $85k, where massive liquidations are stacked. Yesterday, ETFs brought in $541M ($524.8M BTC + $14.9M ETH) even as BTC fell — an enormous divergence showing institutional buying on the dip! If DXY confirms a close below 101.51 today, it’s a classic pre-FOMC risk-on trigger.
Will DXY hold 101.51, or will we see 100.87 today and BTC break $85k before the Fed?
#BTC #ETH #ETF #Fed #Crypto
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194,000 — Initial U.S. jobless claims last week came in below expectations of 200,000 and the previous reading of 199,000. The stronger the labor market, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates, so risk assets took a hit.
After the data came out, the market’s first reaction was: “Rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon.” The dollar and Treasury yields came under upward pressure, BTC fell 1.7%, and ETH dropped 2.7%, with crypto pulling back alongside broader risk appetite. The logic is straightforward: as rate-cut expectations cool, risk-free rates stay elevated, putting pressure on the valuations of volatile assets.
What this means for everyday investors: 1) If you’re waiting for a “rate-cut bull market,” this jobs report is a signal in the opposite direction; 2) a stronger dollar weighs on dollar-denominated assets, including crypto; 3) don’t use a single data point to judge the trend—wait for upcoming inflation data and comments from Fed officials.
What to watch next: whether inflation reinforces expectations that rates won’t be cut, and whether BTC can hold above 81,000.
#Fed #BTC #ETH
194,000 — Initial U.S. jobless claims last week came in below expectations of 200,000 and the previous reading of 199,000. The stronger the labor market, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates, so risk assets took a hit.
After the data came out, the market’s first reaction was: “Rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon.” The dollar and Treasury yields came under upward pressure, BTC fell 1.7%, and ETH dropped 2.7%, with crypto pulling back alongside broader risk appetite. The logic is straightforward: as rate-cut expectations cool, risk-free rates stay elevated, putting pressure on the valuations of volatile assets.
What this means for everyday investors: 1) If you’re waiting for a “rate-cut bull market,” this jobs report is a signal in the opposite direction; 2) a stronger dollar weighs on dollar-denominated assets, including crypto; 3) don’t use a single data point to judge the trend—wait for upcoming inflation data and comments from Fed officials.
What to watch next: whether inflation reinforces expectations that rates won’t be cut, and whether BTC can hold above 81,000.
#Fed #BTC #ETH
After the data came out, the market’s first reaction was: “Rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon.” The dollar and Treasury yields came under upward pressure, BTC fell 1.7%, and ETH dropped 2.7%, with crypto pulling back alongside broader risk appetite. The logic is straightforward: as rate-cut expectations cool, risk-free rates stay elevated, putting pressure on the valuations of volatile assets.
What this means for everyday investors: 1) If you’re waiting for a “rate-cut bull market,” this jobs report is a signal in the opposite direction; 2) a stronger dollar weighs on dollar-denominated assets, including crypto; 3) don’t use a single data point to judge the trend—wait for upcoming inflation data and comments from Fed officials.
What to watch next: whether inflation reinforces expectations that rates won’t be cut, and whether BTC can hold above 81,000.
#Fed #BTC #ETH
122
·
--
🔥 ONE FED DECISION. TWO VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR CRYPTO?
US inflation hit 3.7% in September. Gasoline jumped 9.1%, so the Fed has little room to sound relaxed
Here's my Fed meeting map for October 27–28
🟥 Hawkish Fed + rising Treasury yields + stronger USD = bearish pressure on $BTC
🟩 Cautious Fed + falling yields + weaker USD = bullish relief setup
🟨 Rate hold but hawkish guidance = don't assume it's bullish
My take: I'm watching the message and the market reaction, not just the headline rate decision. ETF flows and BTC's response should help confirm whether either move has real follow-through
Which scenario are you betting on?
#BTC #Crypto #FED
🔥 ONE FED DECISION. TWO VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR CRYPTO?
US inflation hit 3.7% in September. Gasoline jumped 9.1%, so the Fed has little room to sound relaxed
Here's my Fed meeting map for October 27–28
🟥 Hawkish Fed + rising Treasury yields + stronger USD = bearish pressure on $BTC
🟩 Cautious Fed + falling yields + weaker USD = bullish relief setup
🟨 Rate hold but hawkish guidance = don't assume it's bullish
My take: I'm watching the message and the market reaction, not just the headline rate decision. ETF flows and BTC's response should help confirm whether either move has real follow-through
Which scenario are you betting on?
#BTC #Crypto #FED
US inflation hit 3.7% in September. Gasoline jumped 9.1%, so the Fed has little room to sound relaxed
Here's my Fed meeting map for October 27–28
🟥 Hawkish Fed + rising Treasury yields + stronger USD = bearish pressure on $BTC
🟩 Cautious Fed + falling yields + weaker USD = bullish relief setup
🟨 Rate hold but hawkish guidance = don't assume it's bullish
My take: I'm watching the message and the market reaction, not just the headline rate decision. ETF flows and BTC's response should help confirm whether either move has real follow-through
Which scenario are you betting on?
#BTC #Crypto #FED
2
1.2k
All 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to hike rates in December.
94 of 100 expect rates to hold at 3.75%–4.00% in October.
Economists cite persistent inflation and a resilient US economy as reasons for further tightening.
#Fed $SPY $QQQ
All 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to hike rates in December.
94 of 100 expect rates to hold at 3.75%–4.00% in October.
Economists cite persistent inflation and a resilient US economy as reasons for further tightening.
#Fed $SPY $QQQ
94 of 100 expect rates to hold at 3.75%–4.00% in October.
Economists cite persistent inflation and a resilient US economy as reasons for further tightening.
#Fed $SPY $QQQ
103
According to the latest Reuters survey of 100 economists released today, a striking consensus has formed around US monetary policy. A total of 94 out of 100 polled economists now forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% by the end of 2026.
This marks a dramatic hawkish shift in institutional sentiment compared to September, when only 29 of 76 respondents held that view. Persistent macroeconomic resilience and sticky inflation pressures are forcing market analysts to rapidly recalibrate their policy outlooks.
For traditional finance, this structural repricing is set to lift US Treasury yields and bolster the US dollar index. Tighter liquidity conditions will inevitably increase borrowing costs across equities and corporate debt markets.
For crypto assets, prolonged elevated rates could constrain discretionary capital flows and test market liquidity. While $BTC continues to show macro resilience, speculative momentum may face headwinds as high risk-free yields attract institutional capital.
#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomy
According to the latest Reuters survey of 100 economists released today, a striking consensus has formed around US monetary policy. A total of 94 out of 100 polled economists now forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% by the end of 2026.
This marks a dramatic hawkish shift in institutional sentiment compared to September, when only 29 of 76 respondents held that view. Persistent macroeconomic resilience and sticky inflation pressures are forcing market analysts to rapidly recalibrate their policy outlooks.
For traditional finance, this structural repricing is set to lift US Treasury yields and bolster the US dollar index. Tighter liquidity conditions will inevitably increase borrowing costs across equities and corporate debt markets.
For crypto assets, prolonged elevated rates could constrain discretionary capital flows and test market liquidity. While $BTC continues to show macro resilience, speculative momentum may face headwinds as high risk-free yields attract institutional capital.
#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomy
This marks a dramatic hawkish shift in institutional sentiment compared to September, when only 29 of 76 respondents held that view. Persistent macroeconomic resilience and sticky inflation pressures are forcing market analysts to rapidly recalibrate their policy outlooks.
For traditional finance, this structural repricing is set to lift US Treasury yields and bolster the US dollar index. Tighter liquidity conditions will inevitably increase borrowing costs across equities and corporate debt markets.
For crypto assets, prolonged elevated rates could constrain discretionary capital flows and test market liquidity. While $BTC continues to show macro resilience, speculative momentum may face headwinds as high risk-free yields attract institutional capital.
#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomy
37
·
--
🚨 FED TO BUY $14.61B IN T-BILLS OVER NEXT 3 WEEKS!
The NY Fed Desk has released its official operation schedule for Oct 19 – Nov 10:
🔹 Operation Breakdown:
• Oct 19: $1.827 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Oct 22: $3.653 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Oct 29: $1.827 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Nov 05: $3.652 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Nov 09: $3.653 Billion (Bill Purchases)
🔹 Total Liquidity Impact: $14.612 Billion in Treasury bill purchases hit the market.
#kevin #Fed $BTC $eth
🚨 FED TO BUY $14.61B IN T-BILLS OVER NEXT 3 WEEKS!
The NY Fed Desk has released its official operation schedule for Oct 19 – Nov 10:
🔹 Operation Breakdown:
• Oct 19: $1.827 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Oct 22: $3.653 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Oct 29: $1.827 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Nov 05: $3.652 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Nov 09: $3.653 Billion (Bill Purchases)
🔹 Total Liquidity Impact: $14.612 Billion in Treasury bill purchases hit the market.
#kevin #Fed $BTC $eth
The NY Fed Desk has released its official operation schedule for Oct 19 – Nov 10:
🔹 Operation Breakdown:
• Oct 19: $1.827 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Oct 22: $3.653 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Oct 29: $1.827 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Nov 05: $3.652 Billion (Bill Purchases)
• Nov 09: $3.653 Billion (Bill Purchases)
🔹 Total Liquidity Impact: $14.612 Billion in Treasury bill purchases hit the market.
#kevin #Fed $BTC $eth
47
🇺🇸 Fed will inject $14.61 BILLION into the market starting this week.
Liquidity will hit the market for 3 consecutive weeks, which is good for crypto." Means that the U.S. Federal Reserve will add about $14.61 billion of liquidity—readily available cash and short-term funding—to the financial system over three weeks.
In simple terms, more liquidity can make it easier for banks, funds, and investors to access cash. When financial conditions loosen, some investors may be more willing to take risk, which can support assets such as crypto. However, this is not automatically bullish: the impact depends on why liquidity is being added, whether the amount is already expected, broader interest-rate policy, inflation data, and overall market sentiment.
This is not an investment advice#DYOR#FED will inject#BankOfRussiaSaysSelfCustodyBanStartsJuly2027 #GrayscaleAndRepublicLaunchThreeCryptoFunds #ChinaQ3GDPGrowthQuickensTo4.5% $XPIN
{alpha}(560xd955c9ba56fb1ab30e34766e252a97ccce3d31a6)
$STRK
{spot}(STRKUSDT)
$TAG
{alpha}(560x208bf3e7da9639f1eaefa2de78c23396b0682025)
🇺🇸 Fed will inject $14.61 BILLION into the market starting this week.
Liquidity will hit the market for 3 consecutive weeks, which is good for crypto." Means that the U.S. Federal Reserve will add about $14.61 billion of liquidity—readily available cash and short-term funding—to the financial system over three weeks.
In simple terms, more liquidity can make it easier for banks, funds, and investors to access cash. When financial conditions loosen, some investors may be more willing to take risk, which can support assets such as crypto. However, this is not automatically bullish: the impact depends on why liquidity is being added, whether the amount is already expected, broader interest-rate policy, inflation data, and overall market sentiment.
This is not an investment advice#DYOR#FED will inject#BankOfRussiaSaysSelfCustodyBanStartsJuly2027 #GrayscaleAndRepublicLaunchThreeCryptoFunds #ChinaQ3GDPGrowthQuickensTo4.5% $XPIN
$STRK
$TAG
Liquidity will hit the market for 3 consecutive weeks, which is good for crypto." Means that the U.S. Federal Reserve will add about $14.61 billion of liquidity—readily available cash and short-term funding—to the financial system over three weeks.
In simple terms, more liquidity can make it easier for banks, funds, and investors to access cash. When financial conditions loosen, some investors may be more willing to take risk, which can support assets such as crypto. However, this is not automatically bullish: the impact depends on why liquidity is being added, whether the amount is already expected, broader interest-rate policy, inflation data, and overall market sentiment.
This is not an investment advice#DYOR#FED will inject#BankOfRussiaSaysSelfCustodyBanStartsJuly2027 #GrayscaleAndRepublicLaunchThreeCryptoFunds #ChinaQ3GDPGrowthQuickensTo4.5% $XPIN
$STRK
$TAG
1
128
·
--
Bullish
🇺🇸 FED TO INJECT $14.6B INTO MARKETS
The Fed is set to add $14.61B in liquidity potentially boosting risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin stocks and crypto markets.
#Fed #Bitcoin #Crypto #Liquidity
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🇺🇸 FED TO INJECT $14.6B INTO MARKETS
The Fed is set to add $14.61B in liquidity potentially boosting risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin stocks and crypto markets.
#Fed #Bitcoin #Crypto #Liquidity
The Fed is set to add $14.61B in liquidity potentially boosting risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin stocks and crypto markets.
#Fed #Bitcoin #Crypto #Liquidity
44
·
--
Bearish
*🚨 INSTITUTIONAL ALERT - ETFs BLEEDING AND THE FED IS HAWKISH*
*What nobody is telling you today:*
💸 *BTC ETFs: -$94.9M today*
💸 *ETH ETFs: -$87.5M today*
This week: BTC -$228M | ETH -$320M
October: ETH has already lost -$955M - WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR
BlackRock leading the outflows: IBIT -$71M / ETHA -$299M 😳
*And the Fed?*
📊 CPI came in at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected
🔮 85% chance of holding rates on Oct. 28
🔮 92% chance of a HIKE in December
Hot inflation killed the rate cut. Powell turned hawkish again.
*What does this mean for us?*
👉 Negative flows = no fuel for BTC to rise. That's why it lost $80k and dragged everything down; BTC.D rose to 60.7% and alts stalled.
👉 BUT the outflows HALVED compared with last week ($549M vs. $1.22B) + Nasdaq Futures are up 1.2% today. The worst of the panic is over.
*REVERSAL TRIGGER:*
If +$100M flows into ETFs tomorrow = 🚀
If flows stay negative = sideways / downtrend continues
Are you buying this dip or waiting for flows to turn? $BTC $ETH
#Fed #CryptoNews #Xrp🔥🔥 P #BitcoinETF
*🚨 INSTITUTIONAL ALERT - ETFs BLEEDING AND THE FED IS HAWKISH*
*What nobody is telling you today:*
💸 *BTC ETFs: -$94.9M today*
💸 *ETH ETFs: -$87.5M today*
This week: BTC -$228M | ETH -$320M
October: ETH has already lost -$955M - WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR
BlackRock leading the outflows: IBIT -$71M / ETHA -$299M 😳
*And the Fed?*
📊 CPI came in at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected
🔮 85% chance of holding rates on Oct. 28
🔮 92% chance of a HIKE in December
Hot inflation killed the rate cut. Powell turned hawkish again.
*What does this mean for us?*
👉 Negative flows = no fuel for BTC to rise. That's why it lost $80k and dragged everything down; BTC.D rose to 60.7% and alts stalled.
👉 BUT the outflows HALVED compared with last week ($549M vs. $1.22B) + Nasdaq Futures are up 1.2% today. The worst of the panic is over.
*REVERSAL TRIGGER:*
If +$100M flows into ETFs tomorrow = 🚀
If flows stay negative = sideways / downtrend continues
Are you buying this dip or waiting for flows to turn? $BTC $ETH
#Fed #CryptoNews #Xrp🔥🔥 P #BitcoinETF
*What nobody is telling you today:*
💸 *BTC ETFs: -$94.9M today*
💸 *ETH ETFs: -$87.5M today*
This week: BTC -$228M | ETH -$320M
October: ETH has already lost -$955M - WORST MONTH OF THE YEAR
BlackRock leading the outflows: IBIT -$71M / ETHA -$299M 😳
*And the Fed?*
📊 CPI came in at 3.7% vs. 3.6% expected
🔮 85% chance of holding rates on Oct. 28
🔮 92% chance of a HIKE in December
Hot inflation killed the rate cut. Powell turned hawkish again.
*What does this mean for us?*
👉 Negative flows = no fuel for BTC to rise. That's why it lost $80k and dragged everything down; BTC.D rose to 60.7% and alts stalled.
👉 BUT the outflows HALVED compared with last week ($549M vs. $1.22B) + Nasdaq Futures are up 1.2% today. The worst of the panic is over.
*REVERSAL TRIGGER:*
If +$100M flows into ETFs tomorrow = 🚀
If flows stay negative = sideways / downtrend continues
Are you buying this dip or waiting for flows to turn? $BTC $ETH
#Fed #CryptoNews #Xrp🔥🔥 P #BitcoinETF
98
🇺🇸 Fed Update Crypto Traders Are Watching !
Kevin Warsh says price stability remains the Fed’s priority, but he isn’t giving clear signals on future rate decisions.
Less fear of a rate hike could support Bitcoin, but inflation remains a key risk.
For now, patience is better than chasing the market. 👀 DYOR
#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #Fed $BTC $NEAR $SOL
🇺🇸 Fed Update Crypto Traders Are Watching !
Kevin Warsh says price stability remains the Fed’s priority, but he isn’t giving clear signals on future rate decisions.
Less fear of a rate hike could support Bitcoin, but inflation remains a key risk.
For now, patience is better than chasing the market. 👀 DYOR
#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #Fed $BTC $NEAR $SOL
Kevin Warsh says price stability remains the Fed’s priority, but he isn’t giving clear signals on future rate decisions.
Less fear of a rate hike could support Bitcoin, but inflation remains a key risk.
For now, patience is better than chasing the market. 👀 DYOR
#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #Fed $BTC $NEAR $SOL
6
290
·
--
🚨 The probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates plunged from 54% to 15%… and Bitcoin is back at 83,000 👀
Fears of a tougher Fed have cooled, and the market is taking notice.
🟠 Bitcoin (~82,800): rebounds more than 1% this Monday after two straight weeks of declines. Oil fell sharply after the U.S. suspended sanctions on Russian oil, and cheaper oil means less inflation pressure. As long as it doesn’t lose 80,000, that floor remains in control.
🔷 ETH (~2,430): rises nearly 1%, but is still lagging behind Bitcoin because its ETFs have seen weeks of outflows. If institutional money stops flowing out, ETH has more room to recover.
🟣 Solana (~105): gains around 2% and is one of the strongest performers, just days ahead of its network upgrade this week. When risk appetite returns, coins with their own catalysts move first.
🟡 BNB: rises around 1%, tracking the market. A quiet move, signaling that there’s still no euphoria.
The Fed makes its decision on October 27 and 28, and September inflation came in at 3.7%, so nothing is guaranteed.
Will you take advantage of this relief to buy, or wait for the Fed? 👇
#Bitcoin #Fed #TasasDeInteres #ETH #Solana
🚨 The probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates plunged from 54% to 15%… and Bitcoin is back at 83,000 👀
Fears of a tougher Fed have cooled, and the market is taking notice.
🟠 Bitcoin (~82,800): rebounds more than 1% this Monday after two straight weeks of declines. Oil fell sharply after the U.S. suspended sanctions on Russian oil, and cheaper oil means less inflation pressure. As long as it doesn’t lose 80,000, that floor remains in control.
🔷 ETH (~2,430): rises nearly 1%, but is still lagging behind Bitcoin because its ETFs have seen weeks of outflows. If institutional money stops flowing out, ETH has more room to recover.
🟣 Solana (~105): gains around 2% and is one of the strongest performers, just days ahead of its network upgrade this week. When risk appetite returns, coins with their own catalysts move first.
🟡 BNB: rises around 1%, tracking the market. A quiet move, signaling that there’s still no euphoria.
The Fed makes its decision on October 27 and 28, and September inflation came in at 3.7%, so nothing is guaranteed.
Will you take advantage of this relief to buy, or wait for the Fed? 👇
#Bitcoin #Fed #TasasDeInteres #ETH #Solana
Fears of a tougher Fed have cooled, and the market is taking notice.
🟠 Bitcoin (~82,800): rebounds more than 1% this Monday after two straight weeks of declines. Oil fell sharply after the U.S. suspended sanctions on Russian oil, and cheaper oil means less inflation pressure. As long as it doesn’t lose 80,000, that floor remains in control.
🔷 ETH (~2,430): rises nearly 1%, but is still lagging behind Bitcoin because its ETFs have seen weeks of outflows. If institutional money stops flowing out, ETH has more room to recover.
🟣 Solana (~105): gains around 2% and is one of the strongest performers, just days ahead of its network upgrade this week. When risk appetite returns, coins with their own catalysts move first.
🟡 BNB: rises around 1%, tracking the market. A quiet move, signaling that there’s still no euphoria.
The Fed makes its decision on October 27 and 28, and September inflation came in at 3.7%, so nothing is guaranteed.
Will you take advantage of this relief to buy, or wait for the Fed? 👇
#Bitcoin #Fed #TasasDeInteres #ETH #Solana
79
·
--
The market is leaning dovish! 📉
Polymarket prediction odds show an 87% chance the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting. The likelihood of a 25 bps hike has plunged to just 14%, despite ongoing inflation concerns.
A Fed rate pause typically offers breathing room for risk assets, including crypto. Will this fuel the next market rally, or is caution still needed? 💬
What’s your take?
#FOMC #CryptoNews #Fed
The market is leaning dovish! 📉
Polymarket prediction odds show an 87% chance the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting. The likelihood of a 25 bps hike has plunged to just 14%, despite ongoing inflation concerns.
A Fed rate pause typically offers breathing room for risk assets, including crypto. Will this fuel the next market rally, or is caution still needed? 💬
What’s your take?
#FOMC #CryptoNews #Fed
Polymarket prediction odds show an 87% chance the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its next meeting. The likelihood of a 25 bps hike has plunged to just 14%, despite ongoing inflation concerns.
A Fed rate pause typically offers breathing room for risk assets, including crypto. Will this fuel the next market rally, or is caution still needed? 💬
What’s your take?
#FOMC #CryptoNews #Fed
32
·
--
Bullish
🏦 $BTC BEFORE THE FED ON 10/28: WHAT MOVES THE PRICE IS THE SURPRISE, NOT THE DECISION 👀
📅 Precedent: on September 16, the Fed raised rates and $BTC rose 13% over the following 6 days. The hike was priced in (~93% probability), and the price had already fallen to ~$75k before the meeting.
⚠️ This time is different: after September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, a hike in October is possible, but it isn’t priced in (bets were around 30–50% after the release).
📊 LEVELS (daily chart):
🟢 Support 1: $80k. Six daily lows between $79.7k and $81k since Oct 8; the 50-day moving average (~$81.4k) adds support.
🟢 Support 2: $75–76k. September low and the starting point of the post-Fed rebound.
🔴 Resistance 1: $84k. Highs from Oct 11 to 14; the 20-day moving average (~$83.3k) is just below.
🔴 Resistance 2: $86.5–87.4k. The upper end of the range from late September to early October.
📈 Bullish: no surprise from the Fed + daily close above $84k → $86.5–87.4k comes back into play.
📉 Bearish: surprise hike + daily close below $80k → the $75–76k zone is exposed.
⚖️ Until the 28th, $80k–$84k is the range: the daily close matters, not the wicks.
If you trade, define your invalidation level before the 28th: with leverage, one wick is enough to liquidate you. If you DCA, the plan doesn’t change.
👇 What will the Fed do on the 28th? A) Raise rates by 0.25% B) Hold and leave December open as an option C) Hold with a more dovish tone. Comment with your letter.
This is not financial advice. DYOR.
#bitcoin #Fed #Write2Earn
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🏦 $BTC BEFORE THE FED ON 10/28: WHAT MOVES THE PRICE IS THE SURPRISE, NOT THE DECISION 👀
📅 Precedent: on September 16, the Fed raised rates and $BTC rose 13% over the following 6 days. The hike was priced in (~93% probability), and the price had already fallen to ~$75k before the meeting.
⚠️ This time is different: after September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, a hike in October is possible, but it isn’t priced in (bets were around 30–50% after the release).
📊 LEVELS (daily chart):
🟢 Support 1: $80k. Six daily lows between $79.7k and $81k since Oct 8; the 50-day moving average (~$81.4k) adds support.
🟢 Support 2: $75–76k. September low and the starting point of the post-Fed rebound.
🔴 Resistance 1: $84k. Highs from Oct 11 to 14; the 20-day moving average (~$83.3k) is just below.
🔴 Resistance 2: $86.5–87.4k. The upper end of the range from late September to early October.
📈 Bullish: no surprise from the Fed + daily close above $84k → $86.5–87.4k comes back into play.
📉 Bearish: surprise hike + daily close below $80k → the $75–76k zone is exposed.
⚖️ Until the 28th, $80k–$84k is the range: the daily close matters, not the wicks.
If you trade, define your invalidation level before the 28th: with leverage, one wick is enough to liquidate you. If you DCA, the plan doesn’t change.
👇 What will the Fed do on the 28th? A) Raise rates by 0.25% B) Hold and leave December open as an option C) Hold with a more dovish tone. Comment with your letter.
This is not financial advice. DYOR.
#bitcoin #Fed #Write2Earn
📅 Precedent: on September 16, the Fed raised rates and $BTC rose 13% over the following 6 days. The hike was priced in (~93% probability), and the price had already fallen to ~$75k before the meeting.
⚠️ This time is different: after September CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, a hike in October is possible, but it isn’t priced in (bets were around 30–50% after the release).
📊 LEVELS (daily chart):
🟢 Support 1: $80k. Six daily lows between $79.7k and $81k since Oct 8; the 50-day moving average (~$81.4k) adds support.
🟢 Support 2: $75–76k. September low and the starting point of the post-Fed rebound.
🔴 Resistance 1: $84k. Highs from Oct 11 to 14; the 20-day moving average (~$83.3k) is just below.
🔴 Resistance 2: $86.5–87.4k. The upper end of the range from late September to early October.
📈 Bullish: no surprise from the Fed + daily close above $84k → $86.5–87.4k comes back into play.
📉 Bearish: surprise hike + daily close below $80k → the $75–76k zone is exposed.
⚖️ Until the 28th, $80k–$84k is the range: the daily close matters, not the wicks.
If you trade, define your invalidation level before the 28th: with leverage, one wick is enough to liquidate you. If you DCA, the plan doesn’t change.
👇 What will the Fed do on the 28th? A) Raise rates by 0.25% B) Hold and leave December open as an option C) Hold with a more dovish tone. Comment with your letter.
This is not financial advice. DYOR.
#bitcoin #Fed #Write2Earn
74
·
--
Bullish
Partly True
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🚨🚨 Is the Fed actually going to put rates up on the 28th of October? Rubbish
The proper question is: when on earth is the market going to rumble that the decision's already in the bag?
Nine out of eighteen officials have slapped a hike right onto the dot plot. That’s not a cheeky guess, mate, that’s a written vote hashed out weeks ago , And Warsh knows it, but he’s playing it dead crafty with tactical radio silence
No forward guidance, no personal dots
He reckons guidance is 'unsuitable'. That’s not being cautious; that’s legal cover so he can hike without getting accused of 'stitching up' market expectations
$ETH
{spot}(ETHUSDT)
Inflation came in hotter than expected (3.7% and 2.6%), and hike odds shot up to 42% in a single day , Yields didn't hang about: the 10-year touched 5.37%, and the 30-year smashed past 5.7%. The market's already pricing it in
And here’s where most crypto traders are making a proper cock-up: they reckon spiking yields equals curtains for Bitcoin , Absolute bollocks , It’s the exact reverse
Every bit of current selling is just front-running the hike. When the Fed actually pulls the trigger on the 28th, there won’t be any fresh 'bad surprises'
History’s crystal clear: the biggest monster rallies in Bitcoin kick off after the market’s digested the hike, not before
Liquidity stops draining out, the dollar starts sliding back relative, and the institutions that quietly hoovered up the panic-selling pump the price up
Warsh’s deliberate silence isn't weakness… it’s a tool to create temporary selling pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum so the big players can buy at cheaper prices
Anyone watching Warsh’s mouth is selling
Anyone watching the dots and the advance pricing , is buying right now before the stage is exposed
$SOL
{spot}(SOLUSDT)
#Fed #USGovernment #KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Market_Update
$BTC
🚨🚨 Is the Fed actually going to put rates up on the 28th of October? Rubbish
The proper question is: when on earth is the market going to rumble that the decision's already in the bag?
Nine out of eighteen officials have slapped a hike right onto the dot plot. That’s not a cheeky guess, mate, that’s a written vote hashed out weeks ago , And Warsh knows it, but he’s playing it dead crafty with tactical radio silence
No forward guidance, no personal dots
He reckons guidance is 'unsuitable'. That’s not being cautious; that’s legal cover so he can hike without getting accused of 'stitching up' market expectations
$ETH
Inflation came in hotter than expected (3.7% and 2.6%), and hike odds shot up to 42% in a single day , Yields didn't hang about: the 10-year touched 5.37%, and the 30-year smashed past 5.7%. The market's already pricing it in
And here’s where most crypto traders are making a proper cock-up: they reckon spiking yields equals curtains for Bitcoin , Absolute bollocks , It’s the exact reverse
Every bit of current selling is just front-running the hike. When the Fed actually pulls the trigger on the 28th, there won’t be any fresh 'bad surprises'
History’s crystal clear: the biggest monster rallies in Bitcoin kick off after the market’s digested the hike, not before
Liquidity stops draining out, the dollar starts sliding back relative, and the institutions that quietly hoovered up the panic-selling pump the price up
Warsh’s deliberate silence isn't weakness… it’s a tool to create temporary selling pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum so the big players can buy at cheaper prices
Anyone watching Warsh’s mouth is selling
Anyone watching the dots and the advance pricing , is buying right now before the stage is exposed
$SOL
#Fed #USGovernment #KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Market_Update
🚨🚨 Is the Fed actually going to put rates up on the 28th of October? Rubbish
The proper question is: when on earth is the market going to rumble that the decision's already in the bag?
Nine out of eighteen officials have slapped a hike right onto the dot plot. That’s not a cheeky guess, mate, that’s a written vote hashed out weeks ago , And Warsh knows it, but he’s playing it dead crafty with tactical radio silence
No forward guidance, no personal dots
He reckons guidance is 'unsuitable'. That’s not being cautious; that’s legal cover so he can hike without getting accused of 'stitching up' market expectations
$ETH
Inflation came in hotter than expected (3.7% and 2.6%), and hike odds shot up to 42% in a single day , Yields didn't hang about: the 10-year touched 5.37%, and the 30-year smashed past 5.7%. The market's already pricing it in
And here’s where most crypto traders are making a proper cock-up: they reckon spiking yields equals curtains for Bitcoin , Absolute bollocks , It’s the exact reverse
Every bit of current selling is just front-running the hike. When the Fed actually pulls the trigger on the 28th, there won’t be any fresh 'bad surprises'
History’s crystal clear: the biggest monster rallies in Bitcoin kick off after the market’s digested the hike, not before
Liquidity stops draining out, the dollar starts sliding back relative, and the institutions that quietly hoovered up the panic-selling pump the price up
Warsh’s deliberate silence isn't weakness… it’s a tool to create temporary selling pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum so the big players can buy at cheaper prices
Anyone watching Warsh’s mouth is selling
Anyone watching the dots and the advance pricing , is buying right now before the stage is exposed
$SOL
#Fed #USGovernment #KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Market_Update
1
512
·
--
#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear
🏛️ The Fed Votes Before It Sees Its Favorite Inflation Gauge
📊 September PPI: +6.3% y/y and +1.3% m/m, the biggest yearly jump since Dec 2022 (BLS)
⛽ Energy producer prices +10.8% in one month, +35.6% vs a year ago
⚠️ Core PPI ex food, energy and trade: +5.0% y/y, so it's not only oil
📅 The FOMC decides Oct 28. September PCE data lands Oct 29, a day later
📈 Economists polled by CNBC see core PCE +0.32% m/m, about 3.1% y/y
🎯 October hike odds: about 13-14% on Kalshi and Polymarket, down from roughly 30% on PPI day
What it means for crypto: a hold would ease near-term pressure, but hot pipeline inflation keeps a December hike in play, and higher-for-longer rates have tended to weigh on risk assets. $BTC trades near $82K.
Hold in October, or a surprise hike? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear #CryptoNews #Fed #Macro
#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear
🏛️ The Fed Votes Before It Sees Its Favorite Inflation Gauge
📊 September PPI: +6.3% y/y and +1.3% m/m, the biggest yearly jump since Dec 2022 (BLS)
⛽ Energy producer prices +10.8% in one month, +35.6% vs a year ago
⚠️ Core PPI ex food, energy and trade: +5.0% y/y, so it's not only oil
📅 The FOMC decides Oct 28. September PCE data lands Oct 29, a day later
📈 Economists polled by CNBC see core PCE +0.32% m/m, about 3.1% y/y
🎯 October hike odds: about 13-14% on Kalshi and Polymarket, down from roughly 30% on PPI day
What it means for crypto: a hold would ease near-term pressure, but hot pipeline inflation keeps a December hike in play, and higher-for-longer rates have tended to weigh on risk assets. $BTC trades near $82K.
Hold in October, or a surprise hike? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear #CryptoNews #Fed #Macro
🏛️ The Fed Votes Before It Sees Its Favorite Inflation Gauge
📊 September PPI: +6.3% y/y and +1.3% m/m, the biggest yearly jump since Dec 2022 (BLS)
⛽ Energy producer prices +10.8% in one month, +35.6% vs a year ago
⚠️ Core PPI ex food, energy and trade: +5.0% y/y, so it's not only oil
📅 The FOMC decides Oct 28. September PCE data lands Oct 29, a day later
📈 Economists polled by CNBC see core PCE +0.32% m/m, about 3.1% y/y
🎯 October hike odds: about 13-14% on Kalshi and Polymarket, down from roughly 30% on PPI day
What it means for crypto: a hold would ease near-term pressure, but hot pipeline inflation keeps a December hike in play, and higher-for-longer rates have tended to weigh on risk assets. $BTC trades near $82K.
Hold in October, or a surprise hike? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear #CryptoNews #Fed #Macro
3
·
--
🚨 $14.6B IN FED TREASURY REINVESTMENTS… BULLISH FOR $BTC OR OVERHYPED?
The New York Fed plans around $14.6B in Treasury reinvestment purchases from Oct 15 to Nov 13
But here's the detail many headlines miss 👇
This is reinvesting money from maturing securities, NOT $14.6B in brand-new stimulus
I'm watching whether broader liquidity and risk appetite improve into November. If financial conditions become more supportive, crypto could benefit. But this operation alone doesn't guarantee a Bitcoin rally
Rates, the dollar and market positioning still matter
Are traders underestimating the liquidity story or is this headline getting overhyped? 🤔
#BTC #market #FED
🚨 $14.6B IN FED TREASURY REINVESTMENTS… BULLISH FOR $BTC OR OVERHYPED?
The New York Fed plans around $14.6B in Treasury reinvestment purchases from Oct 15 to Nov 13
But here's the detail many headlines miss 👇
This is reinvesting money from maturing securities, NOT $14.6B in brand-new stimulus
I'm watching whether broader liquidity and risk appetite improve into November. If financial conditions become more supportive, crypto could benefit. But this operation alone doesn't guarantee a Bitcoin rally
Rates, the dollar and market positioning still matter
Are traders underestimating the liquidity story or is this headline getting overhyped? 🤔
#BTC #market #FED
The New York Fed plans around $14.6B in Treasury reinvestment purchases from Oct 15 to Nov 13
But here's the detail many headlines miss 👇
This is reinvesting money from maturing securities, NOT $14.6B in brand-new stimulus
I'm watching whether broader liquidity and risk appetite improve into November. If financial conditions become more supportive, crypto could benefit. But this operation alone doesn't guarantee a Bitcoin rally
Rates, the dollar and market positioning still matter
Are traders underestimating the liquidity story or is this headline getting overhyped? 🤔
#BTC #market #FED
1
358
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