Crypto × AI Morning Brief #15 | Binance Opens Withdrawals, $3.64B Net Outflows
After Binance began restoring withdrawals in phases on Sunday, withdrawals totaled about $4.65 billion in the first 9.5 hours, while deposits totaled about $1.01 billion, resulting in net outflows of about $3.64 billion—roughly 2.1% of its $171 billion in assets under management. BTC is currently around $78,194, having rebounded from a post-incident low of about $76,300. Monday’s proof of reserves and flows into U.S. spot ETFs will determine whether selling pressure eases or intensifies again. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 The 3 most important things today 1) Update: Binance opens withdrawals; net outflows total about $3.64 billion in the first 9.5 hours After about $6.3 billion was stolen on Thursday, Binance began restoring network withdrawals in phases on November 1, starting with BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and others. According to official figures, from 1:00 to 10:30 a.m. ET, withdrawals totaled about $4.65 billion and deposits about $1.01 billion, for net outflows of about $3.64 billion—roughly 2.1% of assets under management. Binance said withdrawal volumes spiked initially before easing. Recovery rose from about 90% to about 95%, and the updated proof of reserves is still expected on Monday.
Contract Quant Brief #204 | Long G pullback at 0.00357, short EVAA rebound
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday in Review The AIOT long was triggered and then hit Target 1, with a maximum unrealized profit of 13.53%; current unrealized profit is about 4.5%. The BULLA short was triggered and then hit Target 1, with a maximum unrealized profit of 8.49%; current unrealized profit is about 3.6%. AIN, watch-only with no trades, rose as much as 44.9% in a day and is now 23.9% above when it was selected. Over the past 30 days, 19 trades have closed: 9 hit Target 1 and 8 hit stop-loss, for a Target 1 hit rate of 53%. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Market Overview Today I’m taking one long and one short position today, both small; prioritizing a G pullback. BTC is up 1.1% from the previous update, from 77,523 to 78,375, sitting around 37% of its 7-day range; up 1.1% over 24 hours, with a high of 78,388.
Binance said on Saturday that it had recovered about 90% of the stolen assets and aims to resume withdrawals today, as well as complete its October 31, 00:00 (GMT) reserves snapshot. BTC is around $77,728 and BNB around $706. According to Farside, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $643.2 million on October 30, wiping out four days of inflows in a single day. Recovery efforts are underway, but with a funding lull over the weekend, the near-term focus remains on whether withdrawals resume as promised. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 3 Most Important Things Today 1) Update: Binance has recovered about 90%, targeting withdrawals to reopen today After roughly $6.3 billion was stolen on Thursday, co-CEO Richard Teng said on Saturday that about 90% had been recovered. The remaining roughly 10% consists of less liquid tokens, which Binance will continue to buy back on the market and over the counter. Funds came from partially tapping the roughly $1 billion user security fund SAFU, part of the contract insurance fund, and the company treasury. The goal is to make at least a 1:1 verifiable for ten tokens (including BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL); full proof of reserves is still slated for Monday.
Futures Quant Brief #203|AIOT position up 58% on pullback, shorting BULLA rebound
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday in Review The MAGMA long didn’t reach the entry zone, so it wasn’t triggered; since being selected, it rose as much as about 19.7% and is now up 18.8%. The CRV short hit Target 1 after triggering, with a maximum unrealized profit of 3.46% and a current unrealized profit of about 3.0%. IDOL, which I’m watching but not trading, fell as much as 31.2% in a day and is now 25.7% below its level when selected. Over the past 30 days, 17 trades have closed: 8 reached Target 1 and 8 hit stop-loss, for a 50% Target 1 rate. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Market Overview Today BTC is still moving sideways in a narrow range around 77,000. Today, I’m mainly trading an AIOT pullback, with a BULLA rebound short as a secondary play, using smaller positions than usual. BTC is up 0.22% from the previous update, moving from 77,353 to 77,523, and is 22% from the bottom of its 7-day range; it’s up 0.27% over 24 hours.
Crypto × AI Morning Brief #13 | Binance sets aside $6.34B, targets Sunday reopening of withdrawals
The estimated amount stolen from Binance has been revised up to around $6.3–$6.4 billion. The company has set aside about $6.34 billion to cover the losses, with withdrawals targeted to resume on Sunday and proof of reserves to be published on Monday. BTC rebounded to 77,648 (+0.6%), while BNB was around 710 (+1.9%). On the same day, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $208.5 million on Friday. The security incident has entered the coverage and recovery phase; in the short term, attention remains on the withdrawal timeline and ETFs. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 The 3 biggest stories today 1) Update: Binance hack loss revised up to about $6.3 billion, with $6.34 billion in company funds set aside to cover it On-chain data and investigative estimates have revised the losses up from about $5.57 billion on Thursday to around $6.3–$6.4 billion—more than four times the roughly $1.4 billion lost by Bybit in 2025. Co-CEO Richard Teng said the company has set aside about $6.34 billion in funds to cover the losses, and around $3 billion of the stolen assets have been frozen. Initial findings point to an operations computer being compromised and used to access service containers to submit unauthorized withdrawals. More points of compromise were later discovered. TRM Labs and Chainalysis have linked the incident to the North Korea-affiliated group TraderTraitor. Deposits have resumed, but withdrawals remain suspended. The target is to reopen withdrawals on Sunday and publish proof of reserves on Monday.
Quant Trading Briefing #202|MAGMA long position +65%, CRV rebound short
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday in Review The HYPE long didn’t reach the entry zone, so it wasn’t triggered; its current price is 0.85% above its price when selected. The BEAT long was triggered and is still open, with a maximum unrealized profit of 11.86% and a current unrealized profit of about 9.05%. Watch-only PARTI dropped as much as 21.22% in a day and is now 14.78% below its price when selected. Over the past 30 days, 17 trades have closed: 8 reached Target 1 and 8 hit stop-loss, for a 50% Target 1 hit rate. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Today's Market I’m slightly positioned both long and short today, with MAGMA as my priority. BTC is down 0.72% from the previous update, moving from 77,910 to 77,353. It’s near the lower end of its 7-day range, at the 19% mark; it’s down 0.78% over 24 hours, but has rebounded 0.59% over the past 4 hours.
Crypto × AI Morning Brief #12 | Binance suspected of being hacked for ~$5.5B, BNB down nearly 8%
On Thursday evening, large-scale outflows from Binance-linked hot wallets were recorded, totaling about $5.57 billion on-chain. Tether and Circle froze a combined $1.8 billion to $2.3 billion in stablecoins; BTC fell about 4.9% over 24 hours to $77,033, while BNB dropped about 8.0%. The same day, ICE announced a partnership with TradeXYZ, with plans to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures to the U.S.; HYPE rose about 13.8%. The security incident is hammering major coins, while the compliant derivatives narrative is lifting HYPE. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Today’s 3 Most Important Stories 1) Binance suspected of being hacked, with about $5.57 billion transferred on-chain
The largest cryptocurrency theft in history — Binance hot wallets suspected of being targeted in an EIP-7702 delegation attack
The largest cryptocurrency theft in history — Binance hot wallets suspected of being targeted in an EIP-7702 delegation attack At 20:20 UTC on 10/29, Binance 14 was linked to the attacker’s contract; 3 minutes and 24 seconds later, a single transaction swept out about 167,500 ETH plus 63 tokens (including about $1.6 billion in USDT). Further outflows of ETH and USDC followed from Binance 16 and hot wallet 34, with media estimates ranging from $2.8 billion to $5.5 billion. 7702 lets ordinary addresses delegate execution rights to a contract. A single signature can enable ongoing sweeping until the original key revokes it. How the signature was obtained is still unclear: it may have involved a leaked private key, a compromised approval system, or some other internal cause.
Contract Quant Trading Brief #201 | BTC down 4.2%, near 7-day low; going long on HYPE
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday's Review The XPIN long and VVV short both hit their stop-losses after triggering. XPIN’s maximum unrealized profit was only 2.67% before it pulled back; it’s now 14.28% below its price when selected. VVV’s maximum unrealized profit was 1.89%; it’s now 7.75% below its price when selected. The watch-only IDOL had a maximum daily drawdown of 29.98%. Over the past 30 days, 15 trades have closed: 7 reached Target 1 and 8 hit their stop-loss, for a 47% Target 1 rate. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Today's Market Today I’m only taking long positions on pullbacks, with small position sizes, and prioritizing HYPE. BTC is down 4.21% from the previous period, falling from 81,333 to 77,910. It’s now close to the 7-day low of 77,868, placing it in the bottom 1% of its 7-day range.
Crypto × AI Morning Brief #11 | Fed Holds Rates 10–2, December Hike Probability Rises to 86%
The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, but two members voted for a hike, pushing the probability of a December hike to 86%. That same evening, Alphabet's free cash flow turned negative at $9.07 billion, and its shares fell more than 10% after hours. Rising rate-hike expectations and falling AI stocks meant that even three consecutive days of net inflows into BTC ETFs failed to lift prices. BTC traded between 80,397 and 81,823 over 24 hours. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Today's 3 Most Important Things 1) The Fed voted 10–2 to hold rates at 3.75%–4%; the probability of a December rate hike is 86%. In September, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. This time, it paused as expected. Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack favored another 25-basis-point hike. CME data show the probability of a December hike rose to 86%, up from 76% a week ago and 78% the previous day.
Quant Trading Brief #200 | Short VVV on a rebound below 24.47; long XPIN on a pullback
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday's review The HUMA long reached Target 1 after triggering, with a maximum unrealized profit of 15.05%; it is now up 9.62%. BTW short has triggered and is still open, with a maximum unrealized profit of 6.63%; it is now up 3.19%. AIN, which is watch-only with no trade, fell as much as 19.15% in a day. Over the past 30 days, 12 trades have closed: 6 reached Target 1 and 6 hit their stop-loss. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Market overview Today I have one short and one long position, both small, with VVV as the priority. BTC is up 0.62% since the previous update, but the long-position share has fallen from 67.3% to 65.5%, suggesting some long positions are being closed as the price rises.
Crypto × AI Morning Briefing #10 | BTC ETFs swing to $110M in net inflows; ETH ETFs see $88.58M in outflows
US spot BTC ETFs saw $110 million in net inflows on Monday, ending combined net outflows of $770 million on Thursday and Friday last week. ETH spot ETFs saw $88.58 million in net outflows the same day. The Nasdaq rose 1.2% on Tuesday as AI stocks rebounded for a second consecutive day, while BTC gained just 0.95% to close at $80,910. Ahead of Thursday’s early-morning rate decision, direction still depends on ETF flows and rate expectations. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 3 biggest stories today 1) BTC ETFs see $110 million in net inflows; ETH ETFs see $88.58 million in net outflows Farside data shows that BTC spot ETFs saw $110 million in net inflows on Monday, around one-sixth of the $636 million in net outflows last Thursday. October’s cumulative net outflows narrowed to about $200 million. ETH spot ETFs saw $88.58 million in net outflows: BlackRock’s ETHA had $104.7 million in outflows, Fidelity’s FETH saw $16.13 million in inflows, and the other funds were roughly flat.
Perpetuals Quant Brief #199 | CHIP reached Target 1 yesterday; short BTW and long HUMA today
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday’s recap The CHIP long reached Target 1 after triggering, with a maximum unrealized profit of 10.43%; it’s still up 8.15%. The ORDER short hit its stop loss after triggering, but the price later pulled back and is now 8.74% below where it was when selected. Q, which we’re only watching and not trading, can drop as much as 74.91% in a day. Over the past 30 days, 11 trades have closed: 5 reached Target 1 and 6 hit their stop losses. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Market overview Today I’m taking one long and one short with small positions, prioritizing HUMA. BTC is up 0.91% from the previous update, but the 1-hour taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.8, with more selling than buying, so the rebound is weak.
Crypto × AI Morning Brief #9 | Strategy Pauses BTC Buying; ETFs See $770M in Outflows Over Two Days
BTC spot ETFs saw combined net outflows of $773.5 million last Thursday and Friday. Strategy also made no BTC purchases last week, meaning both major buyer groups—ETFs and publicly listed companies—slowed at the same time. On Monday, Anthropic's IPO filing helped lift the Nasdaq 0.82%. BTC closed at $80,151, almost unchanged from its opening price. Ahead of the Fed's rate decision, the market's direction will depend mainly on rate expectations and fund flows. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Today's 3 Most Important Stories 1) Strategy pauses buying for a week, average price: $75,446 From October 19 to 25, Strategy neither bought nor sold BTC, ending its five-week buying streak and holding 848,517 BTC; during the same period, it spent $204.9 million buying back preferred shares. This came after MSCI proposed this month that it might remove companies like these from its indexes, making it harder for them to issue shares to buy crypto. Bitmine added just 10,452 ETH last week, using more of its funds for stock buybacks.
Quantitative Futures Brief #198|CHIP Long as Open Interest Rises 44%; Short ORDER on Rebound
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday in review The ENA long was triggered and reached Target 1, with a maximum unrealized profit of 5.71%; it is still up 2.79%. The BULLA long was triggered and hit its stop-loss, after which the price rose to 66% above its level when selected—the stop was set too tight. APR, which was watch-only, fell as much as 22.97% in a day and is now 20.05% below its price when selected. Over the past 30 days, 9 trades have settled: 4 reached Target 1 and 5 hit their stop-losses. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Overall market today BTC is only a little over 900 points above its 7-day low of 79,179. On the 1-hour chart, aggressive sell orders outnumber buy orders. I’m taking one long and one short today, with small positions; CHIP is the priority.
Crypto × AI Morning Brief #8 | Fed rate decision Thursday; BTC weekly close at 80,154
The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2 a.m. Thursday. All 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect a December rate hike. BTC closed last week at 80,154, down 2.4% for the week, and traded in a narrow range of 79,846 to 81,034 on Sunday. This week’s direction will depend on rate-hike expectations and the performance of U.S. AI stocks. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 The 3 biggest stories today 1) Fed rate decision early Thursday; all 100 economists expect a December rate hike In a Reuters poll conducted October 16–20, 94 economists expected rates to remain at 3.75% to 4.00% this week, while all 100 expected a December rate hike—up from less than half in last month’s poll. The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September.
Contract Quant Brief #197 | ENA Trading Volume: $258M; Long on a Pullback to 0.20024
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday in Review The AKE short reached Target 1, then exited at the entry price, with a maximum unrealized profit of 10.64%. The DOS long was stopped out after triggering; after the stop-out, the price went on to rise 5.43% above its level when selected. JCT, which I only watched and didn’t trade, rose as much as 18.64% and fell as much as 16.03% during the day. It’s now 11.91% below its level when selected. 7 trades have settled in the past 30 days: 3 reached Target 1, and 4 were stopped out. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Today's Market Overview Today I’m placing only two pullback long orders, with ENA as the priority, using small positions. BTC is currently at 80,122, down 0.86% from the previous reading. It’s near the lower end of its 7-day range, just 17% up from the bottom, and less than 1,000 points above the 7-day low of 79,179.
Crypto × AI Morning Brief #7 | BTC falls below $80,000; $404 million in long positions liquidated in 4 hours
On Saturday, the U.S. evacuated personnel from embassies and bases in several Middle Eastern countries. BTC fell below $80,000 for the first time in over a month, with $404 million in long positions liquidated within 4 hours. In the previous two trading days, spot BTC ETFs saw combined net outflows of $774 million. Geopolitical risks, ETF redemptions, and leveraged positions being unwound all converged over the same weekend. Ahead of Thursday’s Fed rate decision, short-term volatility is being driven mainly by news from the Middle East. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 Today’s 3 biggest stories 1) BTC falls below $80,000; $404 million in long positions liquidated in 4 hours From 8 a.m. to noon ET on Saturday, $404 million in long positions were liquidated—the highest 4-hour total since the night of October 14. BTC hit a low of $79,220 on Binance spot, while 24-hour liquidations across the market reached $815 million, up 218% from the previous day.
Futures Quant Brief #196 | AKE down 19.7%: short the rebound; go long DOS on a pullback
━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔁 Yesterday in Review The ARIA long reached Target 2 after triggering, with a maximum unrealized gain of 22.6%. ERA didn't return to the entry zone, so the trade wasn't triggered; it later rose as much as 35%. IRYS, which I watched but didn't trade, fell 47.4% in a day. 5 trades closed in the past 30 days: 2 hit Target 1, and 3 were stopped out. ━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Today's Market Overview I'm keeping my positions light today, with one short and one long; prioritizing a short on AKE. BTC is currently at 80,818, down 0.39% from the previous reading and sitting 29% of the way up from the bottom of its 7-day range. A break above 81,079 (the 24-hour high) puts 81,470 and 81,950 in view. A drop below 80,462 would likely lead to a retest of 79,179, the 7-day low.
There are quite a few zero-fee perpetuals exchanges around lately. Let’s talk about Bullet (X: @Bulletxyz).
Bullet was previously known as Zeta Markets, one of the earliest order-book perpetual DEXs on Solana, launched in 2021. It received investments from Jump and Electric Capital, and Solana founder Anatoly was also one of its angel investors. The account dates back to Zeta’s 2021 days, and its followers include core Solana projects and figures such as Solana’s official account, Phantom, Jupiter, and Wintermute’s CEO.
It has built a dedicated trading-only chain on Solana: matching happens on its own chain, while settlement goes back to Solana. The goal is straightforward: make on-chain trading feel closer to trading on a centralized exchange. In its own tests, the median time from order placement to confirmation was 9.4 ms.
As for fees, both opening and closing positions are completely free—there are no fees for maker or taker orders. The official line is that it “only makes money while you hold a position,” meaning it will eventually take a cut of funding fees.
Markets go beyond BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE, with perpetual contracts for U.S. stocks, commodities, and indices as well. Margin can be posted in stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, or RWAs.
The Bullet Royale trading competition is underway: - $20,000 total prize pool, split across two rounds - Round one runs from 10/21 to 10/28, with $10,000 in prizes - Rankings are based on profit in USD; first place wins $3,000, and the top 20 all receive prizes
By the way, here’s how it differs from the recently popular Papertrade: Papertrade bets against the protocol’s liquidity pool, offers 1,000x leverage, and only supports BTC and ETH. Bullet uses a real order book, where users trade with one another, and its leverage is much more conservative. Both tout zero fees, but they take completely different approaches.