lianshangxiaohe

XRP has been caught in the crossfire again. At $1.32, down 4% in 24 hours, $1.30 looks ready to give way—and this time, it’s not just the market dragging it down. XRPL itself has stumbled, too.

The fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment was originally set to activate on 10/23, but validator support fell from 35 votes to 26 (it needs 29/35 votes for 14 consecutive days). The countdown restarted, delaying activation until 11/4. CoinDesk says support later recovered to 31 votes, but the two-week cooldown can’t be avoided.

More painful still is the on-chain data: whales’ average monthly inflows to Binance hit $112.4 million, a seven-month high. After a 30% rebound, large holders are quietly selling. The ETF took in just $709,000 on Wednesday—a drop in the bucket.

$1.25 is the next hurdle; if it breaks, watch $1.15. Technicals and fundamentals are both sputtering, so don’t rush to buy the dip.

$XRP #XRPL #XRP

XRP-4.39%

Houthi drones are targeting Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field. Brent spiked to $112.68, a more than five-month high, while WTI touched $99.55. Two people were killed and two injured, but production capacity was unharmed—the market has never feared this punch as much as the next one.

The U.S. has ordered some diplomats’ family members to leave Saudi Arabia. Tankers are still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and exports are nearing prewar levels. As inflation alarms blare, risk assets are all slumping: BTC fell below $82,000, ETH is hovering around $2,400, the DeFi index plunged 5.6%, the Hang Seng Index fell 3%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.32%.

Even $1.1 billion in ETF inflows over three days couldn’t turn things around, suggesting this sell-off is driven by sentiment, not fundamentals. As long as oil prices stay overheated, don’t expect a crypto rebound.

$BTC $ETH #原油 #Macro

Thailand’s SEC has paved the way for spot crypto ETFs, but nobody is getting on board. Several asset managers have only made inquiries, and the number of formal applications is zero. The SEC can’t even guarantee that any will be approved in 2026. The rules aren’t exactly lax: only / is permitted, funds must have at least 80% exposure to a single asset, they can only be listed on the SET, and leverage is outright banned. The door is open, but no one dares walk through it—this scene is itself a true reflection of emerging markets. #ETF #CryptoRegulation

There’s an anonymous on-chain whale who quietly swapped 1,917.7 $BTC (about $159 million) for 64,545 $ETH (about $155 million) over 11 days. Just today, they sold 246.25 BTC and bought 8,286 ETH, with the amounts matching exactly at $20.64 million—a precise one-for-one swap.

The details get even more interesting: 56% of the selling happened in the last 3 days, and the pace is accelerating. They kept buying ETH all the way from $2,270 to $2,500, unfazed by the higher price. Lookonchain has been tracking the wallet for 11 days, but it has no label, so no one knows which institution is behind it.

Swapping BTC for ETH usually points to one of two bets: that ETH will catch up, or that the ETH/BTC exchange rate will reverse. Either way, a $160 million trade says a lot more than bullish talk.#BTC #ETH

Starknet is really leaving Ethereum. The governance vote just ended: 7 days of voting, around 3,200 votes, with 93.52% of the voting power in favor of exploring becoming an independent “post-quantum L1.” This was the highest-participation vote in Starknet governance history, and StarkWare itself abstained.

Note that this was only a non-binding vote—the move to go it alone would require another binding vote. But CEO Eli Ben-Sasson has already announced that a draft white paper will be open for public comment in November.

A project that has spent years as an L2 suddenly wants to become an L1 in its own right. Is this a sign that the Stark ecosystem has lost confidence in Ethereum’s roadmap, or is it taking a position early on the quantum threat? Whatever the motivation, the narrative around $STRK needs to be rewritten. #Starknet #Ethereum

STRK-11.18%

Verified

Kraken listed NEXO for spot trading today, and its price barely budged, hovering around $0.82. Its market cap is about $810 million, ranking it 86th—still 80% below its all-time high of $4.07. The listing boost has long since lost its shine: if the market has taught us anything over the past few years, it’s that getting listed doesn’t change the fundamentals. On the same day, Pump.fun deposited 129,800 SOL (about $14.06 million) in fees into Kraken. According to BBX’s on-chain data, Pump.fun has now sold a total of 5.55 million SOL, cashing out about $886 million. The token-launching machine has become an ATM, yet SOL’s price hasn’t collapsed. All you can say is that buyers are more committed than sellers. If NEXO is counting on a listing to lift its price, it should first ask whether the people selling SOL will let it. $NEXO $SOL #Listing

SOL-4.04%

NEXO-1.80%

Stablecoin’s money bag is leaking: CryptoQuant data shows USDT’s market cap has evaporated by nearly $1 billion in the past 5 days, sliding from $183.87 billion to $183.06 billion. Even more alarming is the great migration from July to October—USDT balances across 19 exchanges and lending platforms fell by $4.6 billion, while USDC and RLUSD added just $1.9 billion. Bybit saw the most extreme move: USDT fell by $1.66 billion, while RLUSD rose by $315 million. The last two BTC bull runs were fueled by tens of billions of dollars’ worth of new USDT minted each time, giving the bulls fresh ammunition. Now the ammo depot is shrinking. For BTC to hold above $82,000, it doesn’t need more buyers—it needs dollars on board. Watch for Tether to start minting large amounts again—that’ll be the first shot signaling the bulls are back. $USDT #稳定币 #BTC

People talk bull market, but their money is voting otherwise. On Polymarket, the odds of falling below key levels by December 31 are: 31.5% for dropping below 0,000, 13.5% for falling below 0,000, and even 7.5% for plunging to 0,000—with real money on the line. In other words, one in three degens thinks we could see a 7-handle by year-end. Don’t laugh at the market for talking out of both sides of its mouth—September CPI came in scorching, oil is at 10, and the Fed’s October 28 meeting is looming. Prediction markets have never been about slogans; they’re about exposing real fear. Will year-end bring a Santa rally or a total mess? The casino is open. Which side are you betting on? / #Polymarket #PredictionMarket

Glassnode’s Week 42 on-chain report laid it bare: treasury companies’ average cost basis is around 0,200. Since September 18, BTC had closed above that level every day, but the sharp drop on October 15 hit 0,100, putting the cost bases (0K–1.5K) of both major holder groups—treasury companies and U.S. spot ETFs—to the test. The more painful part: since June, treasury companies’ net monthly accumulation has been less than a tenth of the November 2024 peak—talking all-in, while their holdings shrink. Glassnode spelled it out: if the daily close falls below 0K, both groups will be underwater on average. 80,000 isn’t some mystical threshold; it’s the institutions’ last line of defense. If it breaks, the real selling pressure begins. / #比特币 #TreasuryCompanies

ZachXBT took aim at CoinDCX again today: On-chain data shows that one of the exchange’s TRON deposit addresses was still sweeping up customer deposits after being hacked in July 2025—and was still receiving gas to keep it running 10 months later. A huge transfer of 15,819,002 USDT on 10/21 was caught red-handed, totaling about $15.99 million. CEO Sumit Gupta denied it overnight: “Those were old addresses generated in January 2025. They were hacked in July and have nothing to do with current operations. Customer funds are safe.” India’s largest exchange was just hit for $44 million last July, and now the old accounts don’t add up. The standard for settling this is simple: prove it on-chain. Explain where these deposits went and reconcile them with proof of reserves; otherwise, “customer funds are safe” is just talk.#交易所安全 #CoinDCX

$BTC failed to break above $84,835, dropping nearly 3% in 24 hours and dipping below $82,000. But the interesting part is the market structure: money is flowing back—BTC dominance surged to 60%, its highest since May, while altcoins got crushed. The CoinDesk DeFi Index fell 5.6%, the Memecoin Index dropped more than 5%, #ETH slipped back to around $2,400, and #SOL fell to $104. The trigger was macro: disappointing earnings from Tesla and Meta reignited doubts about the AI narrative, while the Hang Seng fell 3%, the Kospi 3.5%, and Nasdaq futures 1.3%. Three days of ETF net inflows totaling $1.074 billion couldn’t rescue short-term sentiment. The most worrying signal is the divergence: the Fear and Greed Index is still at 68, in “Greed” territory, but prices have already flinched. Until it breaks through the $85,000 wall, expect choppy trading; watch out if it falls below the key $82,500 support.

Base’s on-chain numbers exploded yesterday: 629,142 daily active addresses, up 82.5% in a single day—a 30-day high (the previous peak was 399,836).
But don’t rush to declare an ecosystem revival—the catalyst was GMGN’s trading competition ($20,000 prize pool, running from 10/21 to 10/26), which required participants to use brand-new wallets and strictly prohibited wash trading. The number of addresses rose by 80%, but transactions only increased from 8.66 million to 10.49 million, while users’ fees paid only went from $81,878 to $113,703. Real usage did increase, but nowhere near as dramatically as the address count suggests.
You need to know how to read the on-chain data: address counts can be inflated by fake accounts, but transactions and fees represent real activity.
#Base #以太坊 #L2

Yesterday was a roller coaster: prices surged to $84,800, liquidating $173 million in shorts, then turned around and plunged to $81,800, wiping out over $210 million in longs. A total of $431 million was liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours—the biggest single-day bloodbath in nearly two weeks. Binance’s largest single liquidation: an $11.8 million BTC long forcibly closed near $83,500.
Altcoins weren’t spared either: $ETH fell below $2,400, DOGE -4%, SOL -3%, HYPE -4.5%. Only XMR bucked the trend, surging 11% to $650 and liquidating another batch of shorts.
The trigger came from US stocks: Tesla cut capital expenditure, Lam Research gave a weak outlook, and Nasdaq futures fell 1.1%. The Fear & Greed Index, meanwhile, is still stuck at 68—the ones getting carried out were all leveraged traders.
#比特币 #爆仓 #Market

The federal government and the states are clashing: On Wednesday, California’s DFPI formally wrote to the SEC opposing its proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, bluntly warning that the proposal would hollow out state securities laws and strip state governments of the tools they need to regulate fraudulent offerings. The proposal is the SEC’s Plan B, rolled out in August without going through Congress or the CLARITY Act, offering crypto issuers two tiers of registration exemptions ($5 million and $75 million). California Secretary of Commerce Rohit Chopra blasted the move: The federal government is weakening its own oversight while also trying to block states from cracking down on scams. Innovation and investor protection are once again at odds. The comment period has just closed, and $BTC still has a long road to compliance.

#SEC #regulation

Grayscale’s latest move is pretty aggressive: all 10 crypto ETFs/trusts now allow “in-kind creations.” $BTC $ETH $SOL and 10 other tokens can be exchanged directly for fund shares, without first selling them for cash (including XRP, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, HYPE, SUI, and ZEC). Sounds great? The minimums are enough to put retail investors off: about $80,300 for SOL, $232,300 for ETH, $257,000 for XRP, $322,600 for ZEC, and a whopping $364,800 for Bitcoin Mini Trust. You also have to go through an authorized participant, and there’s no avoiding taxes. Since the SEC approved in-kind creations and redemptions last July, institutions have brought altcoins into the fold too—the infrastructure is getting smoother, while the table is getting narrower for smaller players.

#加密ETF #In-Kind Creations and Redemptions

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.08 billion in net inflows over three days this week ($527 million on Monday and $528 million on Wednesday, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the lion’s share), according to SoSoValue data. The irony: after hitting a high of $84,700, BTC was knocked back down to $82,485—institutional investors are buying, but the price is still falling. Analysts put it bluntly: a true bull market needs sustained inflows of more than $200 million a day; since July, the daily average has been just $86 million. On a related note, Ethereum ETFs also ended their five-day outflow streak, bringing in $15 million on Wednesday. The money is coming back, but there still isn’t enough firepower.$BTC $ETH #ETF

TON went wild again yesterday: up 32.3% in a day to $1.78, leading the top 30 cryptocurrencies. It has gained over 60% in the past three days. The catalyst is clear—Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that TON will be renamed Gram within the next three weeks, reviving its original brand narrative. Telegram is shifting from partner to the TON network’s biggest driving force. On-chain data isn’t all hot air either: whales had been quietly accumulating during the price slump, and their activity only became visible when trading volume surged and the price broke out. A word of caution: with a 60% gain in three days, check volume and potential pullbacks before chasing the rally—don’t let FOMO push you into it. $TON #Toncoin #Telegram

On October 20, Switzerland’s FINMA approved the country’s first Bitcoin spot ETF aimed at retail investors. It exempts the fund from diversification rules while tightening custody and investor protections, officially opening the door to a market previously reserved for institutions. BTC held near $82,830 that day, up more than 1% intraday. U.S. spot BTC ETFs have attracted around $1.1 billion this week (SoSoValue), and now Swiss retail investors are officially joining in. Europe’s regulated route to buying crypto is getting wider and wider.$BTC #ETF #Switzerland

The OCC finalized the first federal rules for U.S. stablecoins yesterday (the GENIUS Act implementing regulations). They cover reserves, redemptions, capital, custody and audits, and take effect on January 18, 2027. Most interestingly, the presumption of hostility toward “third-party rewards programs” was dropped in favor of case-by-case review—the fight over yield-bearing stablecoins isn’t over yet. After the news broke, Circle jumped 4.5% to $89.71, while Coinbase, Strategy and Galaxy all gained 3–7%. The U.S. stablecoin compliance race has officially begun. #稳定币 #GENIUS #Regulation

Glassnode’s latest weekly report has done the math for institutions: the tracked Bitcoin treasury companies have an average cost basis of around $80200, and BTC has closed above that level every day since September 18—but buyers haven’t returned. Monthly accumulation since June has been less than one-tenth of the November 2024 peak, with institutions simply sitting on the sidelines this time around. The October 15 wick down to $80100 tested the cost basis of both major holder groups—the U.S. spot ETFs and treasury companies—in one fell swoop. Above, $86500–87500 is the densest resistance zone for sell orders and liquidation clusters, with the cost basis of 6–12-month holders at $86700 also weighing on price there. If the daily close falls below $80,000, both institutional groups will be underwater at the same time—$BTC is trapped in the $80,000–$87,000 range. #比特币 #On-chainData