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oAdam
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oAdam

交个朋友 日常分享开源 交易笔记 Ai X: @oAdam
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High-Frequency Trader
8.8 Years
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In 2022, a bunch of people thought 15,000 was too expensive for BTC—they insisted on waiting for 10,000. But the 10,000 never came. Instead, BTC surged from 15,000 and delivered an 8.5x move. In 2026, the promised 40,000 USD Bitcoin didn’t arrive. When it reached 58,000, people still complained it was too high—now it’s 81,000. We’re always waiting, We’re always missing out. Perhaps in a market like this, what’s truly precious isn’t the price, but the time.
In 2022, a bunch of people thought 15,000 was too expensive for BTC—they insisted on waiting for 10,000. But the 10,000 never came. Instead, BTC surged from 15,000 and delivered an 8.5x move.

In 2026, the promised 40,000 USD Bitcoin didn’t arrive. When it reached 58,000, people still complained it was too high—now it’s 81,000.

We’re always waiting,

We’re always missing out.

Perhaps in a market like this, what’s truly precious isn’t the price, but the time.
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See translation
散户最纠结的永远是"该不该卖",但真正拉开差距的是——在标的还没起飞之前,你敢不敢提前埋伏? 等山寨集体启动你再去追,最好的位置早没了。 现在不少 alt 还趴在低位估值上,流动性还没完全轮到它们,能接就接;这轮拼的是低位分批建仓的勇气,不是猜顶的精确度—— 等市场完全确认牛市了,剩下追高的只能喝西北风了。
散户最纠结的永远是"该不该卖",但真正拉开差距的是——在标的还没起飞之前,你敢不敢提前埋伏?

等山寨集体启动你再去追,最好的位置早没了。

现在不少 alt 还趴在低位估值上,流动性还没完全轮到它们,能接就接;这轮拼的是低位分批建仓的勇气,不是猜顶的精确度——

等市场完全确认牛市了,剩下追高的只能喝西北风了。
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See translation
真正的散户还没进场——这反而是最值得玩味的地方。 回头看每一轮,最疯的那段涨幅从不是机构在韬光养晦时发生的,而是等大爷大妈都开始问你"买什么币"的时候。 现在链上数据、ETF 流入、连朋友圈的谈论度都还没到那个临界点,说明这轮还停在聪明钱和早鸟阶段。 别被眼前波动吓下车,主升浪的燃料恰恰在于"散户尚未觉醒"这个事实; 真等全民 FOMO 了,那才是该系好安全带的时候。 起飞🚀
真正的散户还没进场——这反而是最值得玩味的地方。

回头看每一轮,最疯的那段涨幅从不是机构在韬光养晦时发生的,而是等大爷大妈都开始问你"买什么币"的时候。

现在链上数据、ETF 流入、连朋友圈的谈论度都还没到那个临界点,说明这轮还停在聪明钱和早鸟阶段。

别被眼前波动吓下车,主升浪的燃料恰恰在于"散户尚未觉醒"这个事实;

真等全民 FOMO 了,那才是该系好安全带的时候。

起飞🚀
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$ALGO is currently stuck at 0.103, right before this structural resistance zone. Technically, this looks like the upper boundary of the dense consolidation area ahead. Can it be pushed through in one move? The key is volume—buying momentum is still there and hasn’t weakened. If it truly holds above 0.103, the next target is directly 0.116. $ALGO is an established L1 from this cycle that hasn’t really moved much yet. Funds are still picking and trading the “beta” with the strongest momentum. It’s more like a “late breakout candidate” rather than the main leader. This type of stock is best traded by waiting for the breakout confirmation—don’t gamble on a breakout before it clears resistance. In a choppy market, fake breakouts specifically target early runners who sprint ahead.
$ALGO is currently stuck at 0.103, right before this structural resistance zone. Technically, this looks like the upper boundary of the dense consolidation area ahead. Can it be pushed through in one move? The key is volume—buying momentum is still there and hasn’t weakened. If it truly holds above 0.103, the next target is directly 0.116.
$ALGO is an established L1 from this cycle that hasn’t really moved much yet. Funds are still picking and trading the “beta” with the strongest momentum. It’s more like a “late breakout candidate” rather than the main leader.
This type of stock is best traded by waiting for the breakout confirmation—don’t gamble on a breakout before it clears resistance. In a choppy market, fake breakouts specifically target early runners who sprint ahead.
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This week, the privacy line quietly became the fiercest hidden storyline in the whole game: Zama +70%, Railgun +40%—along with a batch of privacy-related names, most over the past 7 days surged by around 40 to 50 percentage points. This is in line with that earlier privacy narrative around $ZEC —the moment on-chain settlement needs to be compliant enough to be seated at the table, capital actually wants “compliance you can see, privacy you can’t.” RWA is about institutions getting in; privacy is about wanting to close the door after you’re inside. Privacy will be a parallel side story to this round’s RWA, but it’s also full of pitfalls. A large number of “fake privacy” projects will ride the emotion for a quick profit. Focus on teams with real tech stacks (FHE/ZK/mixing), and avoid anything that only slaps labels on.
This week, the privacy line quietly became the fiercest hidden storyline in the whole game:

Zama +70%, Railgun +40%—along with a batch of privacy-related names, most over the past 7 days surged by around 40 to 50 percentage points.

This is in line with that earlier privacy narrative around $ZEC —the moment on-chain settlement needs to be compliant enough to be seated at the table, capital actually wants “compliance you can see, privacy you can’t.”

RWA is about institutions getting in; privacy is about wanting to close the door after you’re inside.

Privacy will be a parallel side story to this round’s RWA, but it’s also full of pitfalls. A large number of “fake privacy” projects will ride the emotion for a quick profit. Focus on teams with real tech stacks (FHE/ZK/mixing), and avoid anything that only slaps labels on.
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Liquidity has already set the direction; in a broad market upswing, everyone is a stock god. The real differentiation is in beta. — In the same market cycle, high-beta meme stocks and small-cap, high-elasticity names can run circles around blue chips, but during pullbacks they’re also the first to be pinned to the ground. This “buy without thinking and you’ll profit” phase is the most dangerous, because when people are making money, they’re most likely to treat beta as alpha. Pick the strongest name if you must, but leave a position size for the one you can actually hold through drawdowns—don’t turn β into your excuse.
Liquidity has already set the direction; in a broad market upswing, everyone is a stock god. The real differentiation is in beta.

— In the same market cycle, high-beta meme stocks and small-cap, high-elasticity names can run circles around blue chips, but during pullbacks they’re also the first to be pinned to the ground.

This “buy without thinking and you’ll profit” phase is the most dangerous, because when people are making money, they’re most likely to treat beta as alpha.

Pick the strongest name if you must, but leave a position size for the one you can actually hold through drawdowns—don’t turn β into your excuse.
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A real wealth effect sample should be like $ZEC : Going from a few hundred bucks to 1500$. Here’s how its path evolves: Mainstream coins rise first → old on-chain players回血 → profits spill down to the lower end of the risk curve → mainstream coins hit the financial headlines → new retail investors get pulled in → money continues to pour further downward. Are you now in the window moving from the first phase toward the second? A lot of players aren’t even on the train.
A real wealth effect sample should be like $ZEC :

Going from a few hundred bucks to 1500$. Here’s how its path evolves:

Mainstream coins rise first → old on-chain players回血 → profits spill down to the lower end of the risk curve → mainstream coins hit the financial headlines → new retail investors get pulled in → money continues to pour further downward.

Are you now in the window moving from the first phase toward the second? A lot of players aren’t even on the train.
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In a bear market, can $BTC in a week be pushed from 63,000 to 81,000? Then what about a bull market? Most people are still waiting for “confirmation,” but the market never sends signals from a place that makes you feel comfortable. If a bear market can rally with this kind of magnitude, it means the underlying buy orders and suppressed demand are far stronger than the panic on the surface. Did we not quite miss this round, right?🥲
In a bear market, can $BTC in a week be pushed from 63,000 to 81,000? Then what about a bull market?

Most people are still waiting for “confirmation,” but the market never sends signals from a place that makes you feel comfortable.

If a bear market can rally with this kind of magnitude, it means the underlying buy orders and suppressed demand are far stronger than the panic on the surface.

Did we not quite miss this round, right?🥲
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Don’t equate robots like floor-cleaning robots. It should be: an AGI brain installed into a humanoid body—faster, stronger, more agile, more intelligent than humans, and never retiring. This isn’t a machine; it’s the prototype of a new species. Why are capital and tech “betting to the death” on AI? Because this curve is the only asset class that can truly outperform fiat currency depreciation. What’s the most powerful robot right now?🤔
Don’t equate robots like floor-cleaning robots.

It should be: an AGI brain installed into a humanoid body—faster, stronger, more agile, more intelligent than humans, and never retiring.

This isn’t a machine; it’s the prototype of a new species.

Why are capital and tech “betting to the death” on AI? Because this curve is the only asset class that can truly outperform fiat currency depreciation.

What’s the most powerful robot right now?🤔
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The market called Garrett Jin “the ZEC iron-headed air force,” but the ledgers he posted tonight tore that misunderstanding apart: Since December 24 last year, he has cumulatively withdrawn 202,000 ZEC from Binance (worth $88.3 million), with a cost of only 437; the current price is 1533, and even just the spot holdings are up by $221 million. That means the short position that the whole internet mocked is, in essence, a hedge made using the spot position—not a mindless bet on the downside. The real exposure is those 200,000 ZEC, and the “air force” is merely the hedge for it. Turns out Garrett Jin is the real expert!🤤
The market called Garrett Jin “the ZEC iron-headed air force,” but the ledgers he posted tonight tore that misunderstanding apart:

Since December 24 last year, he has cumulatively withdrawn 202,000 ZEC from Binance (worth $88.3 million), with a cost of only 437; the current price is 1533, and even just the spot holdings are up by $221 million.

That means the short position that the whole internet mocked is, in essence, a hedge made using the spot position—not a mindless bet on the downside.

The real exposure is those 200,000 ZEC, and the “air force” is merely the hedge for it.

Turns out Garrett Jin is the real expert!🤤
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$SOL pierced the August peak. Don’t underestimate this kind of structural breakout—during the copycat season, SOL has consistently been one of the most resilient assets; when it moves first, it often signals that risk appetite is bouncing back. But one breakout doesn’t equal confirmation of the main uptrend—only when volume follows through does it really count. If SOL reclaims the leading-uptrend lineup, and a pullback doesn’t break the prior high, that’s the add-on zone. Don’t FOMO full size on the first signal.🙏
$SOL pierced the August peak.

Don’t underestimate this kind of structural breakout—during the copycat season, SOL has consistently been one of the most resilient assets; when it moves first, it often signals that risk appetite is bouncing back.

But one breakout doesn’t equal confirmation of the main uptrend—only when volume follows through does it really count.

If SOL reclaims the leading-uptrend lineup, and a pullback doesn’t break the prior high, that’s the add-on zone. Don’t FOMO full size on the first signal.🙏
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FomoPeek v1.2 App: Security teams such as SlowMist and OKX have confirmed it is stealing private keys. Assets from multiple users have been stolen. The common point is that they all used and downloaded this v1.2 version. The scam is old—trick you into importing a mnemonic “to claim an air drop / cross-chain.” Once the private key is entered, it instantly belongs to someone else. Any app that asks you to fill in a mnemonic is a scam. If you’ve already downloaded it, move your assets immediately and invalidate the mnemonic. These schemes get crazier in the later stages, targeting people who greedily chase small bargains. Be careful! Be careful! ⚠️
FomoPeek v1.2 App: Security teams such as SlowMist and OKX have confirmed it is stealing private keys.

Assets from multiple users have been stolen. The common point is that they all used and downloaded this v1.2 version.

The scam is old—trick you into importing a mnemonic “to claim an air drop / cross-chain.” Once the private key is entered, it instantly belongs to someone else.

Any app that asks you to fill in a mnemonic is a scam.

If you’ve already downloaded it, move your assets immediately and invalidate the mnemonic.

These schemes get crazier in the later stages, targeting people who greedily chase small bargains.

Be careful! Be careful! ⚠️
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Want to bet on $ETH ecology beta—the most pure way is actually the most straightforward: simply add more ETH. Go around chasing various “ETH concept” targets, and you’ve loaded in fees, slippage, and project-side risk—only to find out in the end it’s still not as good as spot ETH itself. You can enhance your judgment with leverage, but I don’t recommend using leverage on complexity. E-sentinel initiated 🚀
Want to bet on $ETH ecology beta—the most pure way is actually the most straightforward: simply add more ETH.

Go around chasing various “ETH concept” targets, and you’ve loaded in fees, slippage, and project-side risk—only to find out in the end it’s still not as good as spot ETH itself.

You can enhance your judgment with leverage, but I don’t recommend using leverage on complexity.

E-sentinel initiated 🚀
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$ZEC The most lively part of this round isn’t the pricing—it’s Garrett Jin’s “character battle.” After being mocked into losing composure, he shows his address to prove he’s not a fraud. That day’s huge sell-short position was nothing more than a target set up to lure retail traders into going long; now that the target is gone, he’s still carrying the whole market’s weight—200,000 coins, 1%—that could be dumped at any moment, and the uptrend has come to an end. There’s another possibility too: that the 200,000 coins he holds in spot are actually the real position, and the short trades were just the theatrics of volatility. Haven’t you noticed—before that batch of coins moved, anyone calling “the market is over” was just guessing. Ladies and gentlemen, keep watching from the sidelines!
$ZEC The most lively part of this round isn’t the pricing—it’s Garrett Jin’s “character battle.”

After being mocked into losing composure, he shows his address to prove he’s not a fraud. That day’s huge sell-short position was nothing more than a target set up to lure retail traders into going long;

now that the target is gone, he’s still carrying the whole market’s weight—200,000 coins, 1%—that could be dumped at any moment, and the uptrend has come to an end.

There’s another possibility too: that the 200,000 coins he holds in spot are actually the real position, and the short trades were just the theatrics of volatility.

Haven’t you noticed—before that batch of coins moved, anyone calling “the market is over” was just guessing.

Ladies and gentlemen, keep watching from the sidelines!
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Most people take “waiting for Washington’s approval, and waiting for the Fed to print” as a safe haven—but actually, that’s the most expensive posture to pay for. When the rules are clear and liquidity is free, the asymmetric cheap stuff gets snapped up long before. This asymmetry originally comes from “the uncertainty is still ongoing”—once it lands, your cost to buy will be higher. But even in confirmed conditions, you can still take fewer cuts. If you want excess returns, it’s the courage during the ambiguous period that earns you a ticket in; during the clear period, all that’s left is crowdedness. While others are afraid, I’m greedy 🤣
Most people take “waiting for Washington’s approval, and waiting for the Fed to print” as a safe haven—but actually, that’s the most expensive posture to pay for.

When the rules are clear and liquidity is free, the asymmetric cheap stuff gets snapped up long before.

This asymmetry originally comes from “the uncertainty is still ongoing”—once it lands, your cost to buy will be higher.

But even in confirmed conditions, you can still take fewer cuts.

If you want excess returns, it’s the courage during the ambiguous period that earns you a ticket in; during the clear period, all that’s left is crowdedness.

While others are afraid, I’m greedy 🤣
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This week’s crypto crash managed to hit every possible landmine: the CLARITY Act didn’t pass—despite being endorsed by the White House and the Treasury—while BTC briefly dropped to 75,000, and everyone waited for the next new low. Then, right on cue, the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years. It was supposed to break down, but it held steady and didn’t break the prior low. With bad news concentrated and released all at once, the panic sellers have already been shaken out. The ones who should have cut early have already cut—what’s left are the dead-hold types. Bad news keeps piling up yet prices don’t break the lows. That’s the typical sign of a bottom zone—not that the news has turned good, but that there’s no one left who can still sell.
This week’s crypto crash managed to hit every possible landmine: the CLARITY Act didn’t pass—despite being endorsed by the White House and the Treasury—while BTC briefly dropped to 75,000, and everyone waited for the next new low.

Then, right on cue, the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years. It was supposed to break down, but it held steady and didn’t break the prior low.

With bad news concentrated and released all at once, the panic sellers have already been shaken out. The ones who should have cut early have already cut—what’s left are the dead-hold types.

Bad news keeps piling up yet prices don’t break the lows. That’s the typical sign of a bottom zone—not that the news has turned good, but that there’s no one left who can still sell.
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$ETH just stood at 2650$, and today’s opening price also opened at 2611—first time in the past 8 months. Don’t underestimate this candle: ETH is the altcoin’s anchor. Once it was pushed to this level and then stayed there for half a year. Now that it’s back above it, it’s like prying open the funding threshold for the altcoin season. Historically, when ETH stabilizes, it usually means the ALT rally is being warmed up—not that it will go crazy and surge tomorrow, but that the most uncomfortable grinding downtrend phase is very likely over. Compared with chasing a meme that’s already pumped, low-level lagging “blue chip” ETH beta offers a better value.
$ETH just stood at 2650$, and today’s opening price also opened at 2611—first time in the past 8 months.

Don’t underestimate this candle: ETH is the altcoin’s anchor. Once it was pushed to this level and then stayed there for half a year. Now that it’s back above it, it’s like prying open the funding threshold for the altcoin season.

Historically, when ETH stabilizes, it usually means the ALT rally is being warmed up—not that it will go crazy and surge tomorrow, but that the most uncomfortable grinding downtrend phase is very likely over.

Compared with chasing a meme that’s already pumped, low-level lagging “blue chip” ETH beta offers a better value.
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NEAR's intents are visibly swallowing TVL. It packs cross-chain transactions, perpetuals on Hyperliquid, multi-chain memes, and even stocks into a non-custodial, confidential settlement layer—users only say "I want what", while routing and settlement are handled by the protocol, delivering an experience close to a CEX, but without leaving the user's wallet. The "intent-centric" paradigm is starting to pay off. This product strength is indeed much stronger than a year ago—definitely worth keeping an eye on.
NEAR's intents are visibly swallowing TVL.

It packs cross-chain transactions, perpetuals on Hyperliquid, multi-chain memes, and even stocks into a non-custodial, confidential settlement layer—users only say "I want what", while routing and settlement are handled by the protocol, delivering an experience close to a CEX, but without leaving the user's wallet.

The "intent-centric" paradigm is starting to pay off.

This product strength is indeed much stronger than a year ago—definitely worth keeping an eye on.
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$ZEC squeezes into the top ten by market value, yet a huge short-position mountain sits on your head. Could they liquidate it directly?!
$ZEC squeezes into the top ten by market value, yet a huge short-position mountain sits on your head.

Could they liquidate it directly?!
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Ondo’s kind of RWA players are starting to reach into derivatives. On OndoPerps, there are noticeably more trading pairs than before. Although compared with mainstream perps there are still relatively fewer instruments, the depth in the major pairs is genuinely strong. On the 9th, Ondo also added a $ZEC perpetual contract with a maximum leverage of 5x—right in time for the privacy narrative surge around ZEC. The timing is perfect. Ondo follows a “few but excellent” strategy: it doesn’t chase quantity, it builds depth. That matches its RWA positioning—first make institutional-grade compliance and liquidity thick, then gradually expand the product lineup. When you add its collaboration with Layer3 on top, this convergence path of RWA + perps is definitely worth watching. Fewer products also means fewer choices and harder hedging. If you’re thinking about making this the main battlefield, it’s still a bit early. Let’s wait and see for a moment~
Ondo’s kind of RWA players are starting to reach into derivatives.

On OndoPerps, there are noticeably more trading pairs than before. Although compared with mainstream perps there are still relatively fewer instruments, the depth in the major pairs is genuinely strong.

On the 9th, Ondo also added a $ZEC perpetual contract with a maximum leverage of 5x—right in time for the privacy narrative surge around ZEC. The timing is perfect.

Ondo follows a “few but excellent” strategy: it doesn’t chase quantity, it builds depth. That matches its RWA positioning—first make institutional-grade compliance and liquidity thick, then gradually expand the product lineup. When you add its collaboration with Layer3 on top, this convergence path of RWA + perps is definitely worth watching.

Fewer products also means fewer choices and harder hedging. If you’re thinking about making this the main battlefield, it’s still a bit early.

Let’s wait and see for a moment~
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