疯狂的Jerrick

Article

10 years in the crypto circle—if you still believe the market runs on luck or indicators, we probably can’t talk together

12 years as a programmer (up to 2026), same name across the internet: Crazy Jerrick.
Automated Master’s degree, former Microsoft engineer, Senior Software Engineer II.
Been in the crypto circle for 10 years. Not only have I not made money, I’ve also lost dozens of times.
I’m not afraid of you teachers laughing—my understanding of the crypto world is still at the level of elementary school students.
Like many others, I used to think trading depends on luck, on talent, on indicators, on news, and on other people.
Later I found none of it worked—so you still have to rely on yourself. That’s why now I’m all-in on crypto.
What truly changed me wasn’t some magical metric, but the start of re-understanding the market with constantly upgraded cognition.

Article

After last night’s Fed meeting, when the rate hike was implemented, why didn’t the market fall sharply?

after last night’s Fed meeting when the rate hike was implemented, why didn’t the market fall sharply?
The reason is actually quite simple: before the rate hike was implemented, the market had already priced it in.
Everyone has already more or less digested the rate-hike expectations.
Of course, many people are also waiting and watching,
People only took action the moment the rate hike happened,
this is also why, the moment the rate hike was actually carried out,
and the market still has some volatility,
But to be honest, that amount of volatility really isn’t as big as before.
judging by the trading volume, at that time point,
and both sides—bulls and bears—were fighting hard,

XAU+0.79%

Why is it easiest to lose money in a choppy/sideways market?
Because we tend to mistake a not-yet-completed candlestick as if it has already closed.
Because we’re always restless and impatient,
afraid of missing the move.
After getting hurt by a few fake breakouts,
the originally sufficient trading capital gets worn down little by little.
The confidence we had accumulated in trading is worn away little by little too,
until we start doubting ourselves.
Then we start not daring to place orders.
When opportunities come, we don’t dare to take trades with the same position size as before,
so our position gets smaller and smaller, while the opportunities keep becoming more and more “mature.”

I feel that for myself,
sometimes when I watch the candlesticks on higher timeframes too much,
I’m more likely to look for opportunities on lower timeframes,
especially when a certain future piece of news is about to be released.
I really want to discover the window the very first moment,
and then enter a trade.
But often reality goes against that expectation.
It’s not really that this idea itself is wrong,
but rather that the impatience it creates leads to mental confusion,
so that a candlestick that hasn’t finished yet is understood as already closed.
As a result, without any supporting reversal candlestick signals,
it’s also assumed that the trend has already reversed.

Still not good enough.
I need to change!
#美联储加息是否已成定局

疯狂的Jerrick

From the market board,
gold and silver got moving first.
Then I felt that BTC was about to start as well.
Of course, the direction I’m referring to is definitely an upside breakout.

I think a main reason it can start before the rate hike is actually implemented is that the market has already priced in expectations for the rate hike in advance. Whether it’s crypto or gold—gold has already fallen quite a bit ahead of time.
And earlier today, gold already started a decent little rebound, which suggests that even if the rate hike is carried out later tonight, no matter how bad the situation is, it probably won’t be very far from the current bottom.
If gold has already had a solid rebound, then when the actual announcement comes, the worst case is likely just a quick wick-style pullback, and then it continues higher.

I think crypto is similar here.
It just reacts after gold—like in the short piece I wrote earlier, where gold and Bitcoin seem to have a bit of correlation, especially around major turning points.
Now it looks like this time may not be too different.

Overall,
gold always stays a step ahead of crypto.
Gold tilts its head up first,
and Bitcoin follows.

The above is only personal analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美联储加息是否已成定局

Bullish

I suddenly discovered a little linkage secret between gold and Bitcoin!

Gold has gone through roughly three waves from the start to now. Of course, the third wave is still in its early stage and hasn’t finished yet.
The first wave began around the morning of August 5th at about 08:00.
The second wave began around August 19th at about 20:00.
The third wave began around September 2nd at about 19:00.

When gold started its first wave, Bitcoin didn’t really react—it was still in a consolidation phase.
And it took 14 days from the start of wave 1 until the end of the correction.

When gold started its second wave, Bitcoin almost started at the same time as gold, and it kicked off a round of savage upward surge.
After gold’s second-wave rally reached its highest point, Bitcoin also reached its highest point within the next 2–3 hours, and then began a correction that lasted as long as 8 days.
And it took 14 days from the start of wave 2 until the end of the correction.

When gold started its third wave, Bitcoin happened to form the lowest point of the correction that followed the previous savage rally. Then Bitcoin kept climbing upward in small steps until around 8:00 PM on September 3rd, when it began to surge rapidly.
If wave 3 also took 14 days to complete its correction, then that would be around September 16th, right?

Looking at it this way, Bitcoin’s timing for these breakouts seems to be increasingly syncing with gold.

As long as gold rises well, Bitcoin rises well.
When gold surges aggressively, Bitcoin becomes even more aggressive.

Also, the magnitude of gold’s pullbacks is much larger than that of Bitcoin’s.

So the next Bitcoin high point depends on when gold shows serious negative feedback. And during the time period around the high point before gold first shows serious negative feedback, you can roughly guess the stretched peak high point of this round of Bitcoin.

$BTC

$XAU

#SEC新规拟吸引加密企业回流美国

The above is only my personal trading analysis record and does not constitute any investment advice.

Partly True

In the past couple of days, on the crypto market’s news front, it’s all about heavyweight-level news.
When there’s heavyweight news, it usually means big volatility.
And for me, who does event trading, it’s actually not easy to get a handle on it,
because the news is indeed too tightly packed.

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 16 — the CLARITY ACT voting resolution.
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17 (Thursday) — the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.
At 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on September 17 — the Fed Chair will hold a press conference.
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17 — Circle launches the ARC mainnet.

I can only say that all of these messages are noise. The closer we get to this point, the more we need to stay put.
If, because of these messages, a “golden pit” appears, that’s when we need to look for a position to board and go long.
If, because of these messages, there’s a breakout out of the ranging/sideways channel, then on the contrary we need to be cautious about chasing longs—and we can even take a short-term short position appropriately.
#美联储加息概率升至89%

Let’s talk about why the BTC that everyone is discussing still hasn’t dumped? At this stage, most altcoins that can fall have already gone through a round of decline. But BTC and Ethereum are still holding up pretty strongly: 1. In fact, just looking at the ETF fund flows for Bitcoin makes it easy to see why BTC and ETH are still so firm. The amount of capital flowing out is truly extremely small—very, very small. 2. The week before, MicroStrategy provided a small positive buy signal, while in the most recent week it neither sold nor bought. In reality, these are signals that Bitcoin neither sees a big drop nor a big surge. But if MicroStrategy can continue adding to its position, that would be a very strong positive factor for BTC. 3. The Clarity Act will be put to a vote at around 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 17. For crypto, this is actually a very crucial time node. Personally, I think once it passes, it could be a strong catalyst: BTC taking out 82,800 shouldn’t be too difficult. But if the price wants to keep moving upward continuously, I guess there will still be a pullback to shake out some of the chasing capital. After all, it has already rallied a lot. To go further, it needs a relatively healthy correction. Because when the good news lands, it also means the bad news is coming. If the Clarity Act fails to pass, I don’t think it would have a major impact on Bitcoin’s overall long-term trend, but a pullback would likely be unavoidable. 4. On the technical side, don’t be overly bearish or overly bullish. In reality, structurally, it’s still in a wide-range consolidation phase (76,000, 82,360). Before breaking out of that structure, what we need to do is focus mainly on low-buying (going long on dips). In terms of personal trading, when it comes to crypto, I mainly trade BTC, ETH, HYPE, and ZEC. I don’t recommend trading other mainstream coins or altcoins. Right now, BTC doesn’t have a clear directional signal. Trading other altcoins would more often than not end in getting slapped. The randomness is relatively high. DYOR. #SEC主席敦促国会推进CLARITY法案

Let’s talk about why the BTC that everyone is discussing still hasn’t dumped?
At this stage,
most altcoins that can fall have already gone through a round of decline.
But BTC and Ethereum are still holding up pretty strongly:

1. In fact, just looking at the ETF fund flows for Bitcoin makes it easy to see why BTC and ETH are still so firm.
The amount of capital flowing out is truly extremely small—very, very small.

2. The week before, MicroStrategy provided a small positive buy signal,
while in the most recent week it neither sold nor bought.
In reality, these are signals that Bitcoin neither sees a big drop nor a big surge.
But if MicroStrategy can continue adding to its position,
that would be a very strong positive factor for BTC.

3. The Clarity Act will be put to a vote at around 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 17.
For crypto, this is actually a very crucial time node.
Personally, I think once it passes, it could be a strong catalyst:
BTC taking out 82,800 shouldn’t be too difficult.
But if the price wants to keep moving upward continuously,
I guess there will still be a pullback to shake out some of the chasing capital.
After all, it has already rallied a lot.
To go further, it needs a relatively healthy correction.
Because when the good news lands, it also means the bad news is coming.

If the Clarity Act fails to pass, I don’t think it would have a major impact on Bitcoin’s overall long-term trend,
but a pullback would likely be unavoidable.

4. On the technical side, don’t be overly bearish or overly bullish.
In reality, structurally, it’s still in a wide-range consolidation phase (76,000, 82,360).
Before breaking out of that structure, what we need to do is focus mainly on low-buying (going long on dips).

In terms of personal trading,
when it comes to crypto, I mainly trade BTC, ETH, HYPE, and ZEC.
I don’t recommend trading other mainstream coins or altcoins.
Right now, BTC doesn’t have a clear directional signal.
Trading other altcoins would more often than not end in getting slapped.
The randomness is relatively high.

DYOR.
#SEC主席敦促国会推进CLARITY法案

September 16th: Circle’s ARC mainnet will be launched soon.
For an event-driven trader,
I’ve added Circle to my watchlist.

I think this upgrade has the following logic, and it’s worth trading:
1. There’s no doubt that the launch of the ARC mainnet is a positive for CRCL. However, you also need to guard against the narrative that “good news landing is bad news.” Whether this logic holds depends on the real reaction of CRCL’s share price during the first three days before and after the mainnet launch. If CRCL keeps rising independently of BTC, or if it jumps a lot, then you can basically short a wave around the time the ARC mainnet goes live. Otherwise, you can go long decisively.
2. The ARC mainnet launch also brings another positive for CRCL in that more and more MEMEs will pair with CRCL. And once one MEME suddenly surges, the corresponding demand for CRCL could skyrocket, which in turn could push the CRCL share price up passively in the opposite direction. Currently, it has already been seen that Long.supply has used many MEMEs to pair with CRCL, and this is also a mainstream trend in the crypto market lately.
3. In the secondary market, the coins to focus on include EDGE, LONG, AAVE, MORPHO, and UNI. But in this round, the ones that likely make real money are still the first batch of MEME coins launched on the ARC mainnet. For me as a secondary-market trader, it probably means I can only watch from the sidelines. Or, in other words, I can only keep an eye on the secondary market to see if there are any tradable opportunities.

It’s still not certain whether this ARC mainnet launch will trigger a decent rebound in BTC. But there’s no denying that Circle stepping into the ARC mainnet is definitely crucial for the development of the crypto industry.
#比特币涨1.64%突破78000美元

疯狂的Jerrick

Teachers who have paid attention to Unipcs should all know that recently he has been promoting and calling for buys on ARC chain MEMEs again.

I think this is an opportunity—at least it’s still extremely, extremely early. Circle’s launch is not until September 16, and we still have two days to set things up.

What’s interesting is that Long.supply has already started issuing tokens on the ARC chain. Many wallets I’ve checked still can’t support this chain and its tokens. So right now wallets still can’t display the coins I bought, and at the moment purchases can only be made on the Launchpad.

The purchase method is explained clearly by Unipcs, but I can share my own way of buying:
1. Log in to Long.supply with a wallet, such as Metamask.
2. Deposit Robinhood chain ETH into the wallet (a small amount, as cross-chain bridge gas) and the Robinhood chain CIRCL token.
3. Use Long.supply/bridge to convert RH’s CRCL into ARC’s CRCL.
4. Then, use Long.supply to buy the ARC chain MEME you’re interested in using the CRCL on ARC.

One thing to note—maybe everyone needs to know:
1. When buying MEMEs using CRCL on the ARC chain, the gas burned is USDC on the ARC chain. And where does this USDC come from?
2. Since the ARC chain hasn’t officially launched yet, all bridges in the market don’t have this channel. So when we convert RH’s CRCL on LONG.supply/Bridge into ARC chain CRCL, the Long.supply platform will赠送 us some ARC-based USDC, which we can use on this platform to purchase MEMEs.

I don’t really feel like putting out much work these past couple of days!

I feel that if I keep researching the market and learning more, then I can produce a lot of content—kind of like taking what I’ve learned, going through my own thinking, and then expressing it.

The more I express, the more I feel I can sustain expressing, and it also becomes easier to generate inspiration.

Now, it seems like I understand a bit why those people who talk about the ways of human情世故 (social etiquette and worldly wisdom),
about the variety of life,
and about worldly principles, can update so many things.

Actually, the more you output, the deeper your thinking becomes!
Trading is the same: the more you review and reflect (post-trade review), the deeper your thinking becomes too. And your understanding and aesthetic sense—both improve!

Seeing is not necessarily doing it right.
Saying and doing are really two different things.

Right now I think I’m quite suited to be an analyst,
but a good analyst can’t really make money.
At least, this proves that many of my analyses are very reasonable.

After reading so many of my posts,
you really might think I’m a pretty good analyst,
even I end up admiring myself.

But I definitely am not a qualified trader,
or a reliable one.
At least not yet.

It’s like with the bull—
from the very beginning I posted many times saying to go long on it,
and I never posted any days saying I wanted to go short (as far as I remember, I don’t think I did).
But I just couldn’t hold on.

So a qualified analyst isn’t necessarily a qualified trader.
A qualified trader must be a qualified analyst.

I also have many posts where the analysis is really quite good (for example, the BTC fund flow posts, and the related posts about SpaceX).
I genuinely think so.
But that’s also not stopping me from losing money.

So I still have a long way to go.
Seeing is not necessarily doing it right.
Let’s encourage each other.
$牛来

疯狂的Jerrick

I think,
if this is really the start of a bull market,
then when the bull comes, it will rise for a very, very long time!
Seriously, just thinking about it is scary.
A movie, a meme, and a bull market were shouted into existence like that.
Really awesome.

Last night when I was watching Zheng Qinwen’s livestream,
someone on site was actually shouting "bull come" at Zheng Qinwen too.

From Chinese cinema to the crypto world, and then to the US Open,
it even spread there, and yesterday when I was taking the kid out to play,
the kid was also playing a game called Bull Come!

Finally, one sentence to sum it up:
the bull market has really arrived!
When the bull comes, it will rise very, very high!
$牛来

牛来+6.87%

Article

After digging deeper into this SpaceX stock, I found some deeper underlying trading logic secrets for SpaceX stock!

After digging deeper into this SpaceX stock, I found some deeper, underlying trading logic secrets for SpaceX stock:

There’s quite a lot to analyze. If you think it’s troublesome, you can just look at the final rules summary:
Let’s talk about the trading logic behind SpaceX’s unlocked (restricted) stock:
1. What you can do for the trading of the unlocked (restricted) stock events in the 1st round:
Short selling: If on the trading day before the unlocked (restricted) date the market opens and forms a recent high, you can short. Put the stop-loss at the previous high, and take profit at the low point of the opening-day sell-off on the day of the unlocked (restricted) stock, or even before the open.
Going long: On the day of the unlocked (restricted) stock, the first 15-minute candle at the open that has a long lower shadow—this can be used. Even closely watching the 5-minute bullish candle where the price stabilizes (turns positive/holds) is also possible. Place the stop-loss at the low of the bullish candle, and set take profit near the high point from the night before the unlocked (restricted) date.

I suddenly realized something.
You might not believe me when I say this,

Hunter Biden crashed the laptop.
The laptop crashed the entire crypto market.

My Robinhood, my MEMEs, my BTC.

HOODB+0.92%

In this round of the SpaceX unblocking event trading, although I didn’t make any money, I shouldn’t skip the summary and review.

Stock unblocking is definitely a negative, so if you’re going to trade in this event direction, you should choose to go short. From the previous three unblocking events, the shorting point with the best value-for-money and the highest certainty is still the night before the unblocking.

So the lessons are as follows:
1. For US stocks (especially SpaceX), I will never again hold a long short position two or three days early. Because most likely, on the night before the unblocking, there will be a higher high.

2. If you need to short a few days in advance, you must move fast in and out—don’t think you can hold until the unblocking event actually lands. Because before the unblocking, the main forces will generally still give you a squeeze-out move. It’s extremely uncomfortable; if you don’t stop-loss, you end up playing the role of a gambler.

3. The market is always right. No matter how much historical experience you have, or how accurate or consistent the bearish/bullish view is, don’t assume that because a stock has no positives, it shouldn’t rise. If it rises, it’s just bait. Respect the market. If the price action doesn’t match expectations, cut losses decisively. Don’t fight the market. In the end, what happens is: I get beaten up, the market is still there, but my principal is gone, my position is gone, and everything is a mess.

As for SpaceX, I definitely think it’s a good stock long-term. If I had more capital, I wouldn’t be fooling around recklessly with these short-term trades here.

Alright, that’s the review for SpaceX’s “Diao-毛” today.
$SPCX

疯狂的Jerrick

I currently lean toward event (news)–driven trading. For each round of SpaceX share unlocks, I’ve done them, but every time the shorting timing isn’t good it makes your heart race. Especially the second time!

1. The first unlock was one day after the earnings report came out, so the day before the earnings report was released I didn’t dare to make a move. There was a decent pull-up and rally, and then right after the earnings report was released, the first wave of unlocks came immediately. At the time, I thought that from the time of listing to the first unlock, the stock had already fallen by about 50%. And most of that 50% was actually the market digesting expectations for the first unlock. So I didn’t hold a long-position short for a long time; instead, I went short first and then entered a long position. The reason was: when the negative news is already out, it goes up.
2. For the second unlock, I acted relatively early. Back then, I believed that before the second unlock, Spacex had already risen from 104 to 150—up about 50%. So I was bearish on the second unlock as well, and I placed short orders in advance (15/8) around the 140 area. But on 17/8 it surged to around 150, nearly hitting my stop-loss line. Fortunately, I still held on. In the end, I also exited in profit.
3. The third unlock is also coming soon (9/9). Personally, I think this unlock-related trade direction will definitely be short. But choosing the right timing to short is extremely important. Referring to the first two times: whether or not there is an earnings report, within one to two days before the unlock there will be a relatively high point formed. (The first time was affected by the earnings report, when it moved from 104 to 130; the second time was from 140 to 149.5.) So personally I prefer not to short too early, but to wait for one to two days before the unlock, see whether a higher high forms, and then short from that position.
4. In line with the way the first two unlocks played out, the period on the day of the unlock—from daytime until the market opens at 9:30pm—is the most certain window to short, because the price action during that window has been relatively smooth.
$SPCX

The above is only my personal trading analysis and record; it does not constitute any investment advice.
#SpaceX

Choppy market conditions can easily make people feel like there are opportunities everywhere that are just about to break out.
But actually, it’s because my understanding of the market still isn’t good enough.

Even though I clearly know it’s a range-bound market,
I still can’t control myself and keep opening positions.

I feel like my trading ability has regressed a bit.
I feel that any money I managed to make before was basically just because the market happened to “feed me.”

In a range-bound market, you should resolutely wait to place trades at support and resistance levels.
You must enter trades at key levels
to improve your win rate.

What choppy markets absolutely hate most
is chasing small timeframe breakouts within the valid range.

If you open a position in the middle of the range,
at any moment—whether the price moves up or down—it’s basically random.
Moving up is reasonable,
so is moving down.

You won’t make much money,
but the kind of torture it causes is second to none.

I’m just an S-B.
A SaX who can’t control their hands.
Wake up and take a long look at yourself.
Crazy Jerrick!!!!

Eliminate the difference in opinion!

Before, when Trump issued coins, it was to make fortunes—
now, when Biden’s son issues coins, it’s to make people poor!

It’s very important to first determine the big direction, and then act according to it.

Recently, when shorting, I haven’t made any money at all.

It was all stopped out!

Seeing isn’t the same as doing.

Doing it for real is so hard.

You need to reflect!!

Let’s review the actions I took last night regarding the failure of SpaceX:
1. Continuously adding on dips: Due to my own subjective judgment, I believed that after spacex was poked downward, the rebound would only be a short-term stop-loss liquidation by the longs in the absence of any positive news. But I didn’t know it could pull above 150.
I made multiple averaging-down/additional-entry operations, and in the end it ended in failure. Adding is possible, but if after adding the trade the price doesn’t move according to the expected pattern, you should reduce positions decisively. Don’t wait until it hits the stop-loss line and then exit everything together.

2. Constantly moving my stop-loss line upward.
Once the market strongly rebounded above 149.7, that already exceeded what I expected—it was outside the limits of what I had scripted. If it rebounded above 149.7, I should have stopped out strictly then, rather than waiting to place the stop at 153.

3. Rebounds beyond my understanding—no matter how much loss they cause—I should first stop out and step back to observe, instead of being stubbornly attached to the direction I insisted on.

4. The market is always right. You shouldn’t assume that stretches upward with no news must be “just talk” or manipulation.

5. Being right about the market isn’t the same as doing the trade right—this is the hardest riddle for all traders. Only by improving bit by bit, refining bit by bit, and slowly summarizing lessons learned can you do better over time.

DYOR

疯狂的Jerrick

The basic logic is fine.
Basically, it follows the script I gave.
If there is a rebound, you can add to the short position.

From today to tomorrow evening, at the market open, it should be a downward trend.
$SPCX

SpaceX will carry out two consecutive unlockings tomorrow (9/9) and the day after tomorrow (9/10). Then in the early hours of 9/11, the CFO of SpaceX will deliver an important speech.

The number of shares to be unlocked on 9/9 will be a large amount—about 319 million shares.
The unlocking on 9/10 will be a small amount—about 59.1 million shares.
So SpaceX is facing selling pressure from two consecutive rounds of large unlockings.

In terms of personal trading:
The direction is still definitely bearish. With my current position at 159, I have already entered a starter position. I will place my stop-loss slightly outside the recent high.
If tonight it can break above 153, then I will look for another entry point to go short again. Personally, I feel it will dip a bit during the day today,
then at the open tonight it may surge upward, but it likely won’t break the previous high of 152.3.
Then, during that upward push at tonight’s open, I will look for opportunities to add a bit more to the position.

Taking into account the unlocking event before August 6: the night before it, there was a relatively high peak, and then it quickly reversed downward. Tonight is unlikely to repeat the same pattern,
because the night before August 6 was pushed up by the catalyst of SpaceX’s earnings report release.
Tonight, there won’t be any major announcements—apart from the trend of the U.S. stock market index, there’s basically no other factor that could push SpaceX higher.

So if the U.S. stock market index performs well tonight, it may pull SpaceX upward along with it for a round.
But if SpaceX drops during the day today, then the following行情 can be referenced from August 20—basically heading south all the way.
$SPCX

The above is only my personal trading thinking and does not constitute any investment advice.

Robinhood just went dark,
and the BNB Chain started causing trouble.

4stock should be pretty much confirmed as the BNB leader in this round.
In less than 6 hours, it already surged to 60M.
And it successfully pulled BNB and BNC stocks along with it.
This should be a very clear signal—and the first MEME that, all by itself, managed to move both stocks and BNB.
Now, at this moment, let’s look at other public chains.
They’re basically in a dormant state.

So, judging by all this, the position of 4stock is even more self-evident.
I’ll just have a small expectation.
Although I only just entered the market too.
Still, I remain optimistic about what comes next.

BNB+2.68%

BNC+8.16%