trader叫兽

#ETH $ETH

Yesterday afternoon, although it made a new low for the second time, trading volume shrank noticeably. It is now entering the discount zone; the FVG area is around 2086–2110. This is intraday support and also the area with the densest short-term liquidity. However, the overall downtrend remains unchanged, so the general approach is still to focus on short positions. Entry levels to watch are around 2131–2147. A second entry strategy is to continue monitoring the 30-minute OB area, around 2230, if price breaks above 2147 intraday. Aside from that, it is not recommended to keep chasing shorts intraday if price breaks down while at strong daily-chart support.

Turns out the older generation are the real pros.

Starting at age 20,
if an opportunity comes along once every 7 years,
and you live to 90,
you’ll have about 10 opportunities in your lifetime.

Munger lived from age 35 to 99,
and in those 64 years, he encountered only 5.6 opportunities.
Opportunities truly worth making a major investment in
clearly come only with patience.
A great industry, a great company, a great price,
and plenty of cash on hand
can turn into an opportunity to invest heavily.

But everything has two sides.
An opportunity may come once every 7–10 years,
but a crisis may come along, too.
Avoiding danger and seizing opportunities is what makes the most of them.

My shoes are a little dirty. What should I do?

#ETH $ETH
Overall trading activity was relatively subdued over the weekend, and the broader trend remains downward. After sweeping the liquidity above in the early hours yesterday, the market fluctuated lower without a surge in volume. Supply has not increased, so be careful not to chase shorts.
For an ultra-short-term approach, focus only on resistance at 2355 above and support at 2215 below. Consider taking action only after a breakout; otherwise, it is best to stay on the sidelines today.

No wonder everyone says jade is a scam—there are several mountains of this stuff in Canada.

#BTC走势分析
Yesterday’s analysis noted that price was approaching the OB zone at 81180–81800, and advised against chasing longs. Yesterday’s high was 81188, in line with expectations. However, influenced by U.S. equities, price broke through key support levels in succession and returned to near the starting point of the rally.
A comparison of the past two days’ candlesticks shows that the candle bodies completely engulfed the previous ones. Yesterday’s trading volume was also higher, so the near-term bias is for further downside. Daily support levels are at 74693, 71150, and 66882. Price also remains under pressure from the descending trendline.
Intraday liquidity is concentrated around 76300. Given how sharply price fell last night, be wary of a sell-side liquidity sweep during the session before another move lower. Wait for confirmation.

Let me make a bold suggestion:

China could take a different approach to social security.

For people in flexible employment,
since their jobs and incomes are unstable, their social security contributions could also be intermittent, allowing them to pay flexibly.

The authorities should only set limits on when people can start receiving their pensions,
instead of constantly restricting when they can make contributions. At the very least, contributions for people in flexible employment should work this way.

Once they reach the eligible age, they can receive a pension based on how much they contributed.
For example, someone who contributed 300,000 yuan in total
might receive 3,000 yuan a month after retirement.

Someone who contributed 100,000 yuan
could receive 1,000 yuan a month after retirement.

Stop scaring ordinary people,
and stop forcing them.
Many things need to take real-life circumstances into account.

And another thing: the pension distribution system really does need reform. I won't say more about it here—there's no point.

#BTC走势分析
Yesterday's analysis advised caution against shorting the rebound, and that view has now been validated. After Bitcoin swept liquidity at 76400, it broke above the 1-hour CHoCH level, shifting direction from bearish to bullish. However, it is now approaching the OB zone formed on 10.30, namely 81180-81800, where chasing another long offers a relatively poor risk/reward ratio. Today, focus on these three levels: 79883, 78978, and 78526. Watch for a directional shift on a lower timeframe at these levels before considering a long position. Recent news-driven volatility has been high, so avoid blindly chasing longs.

You get stopped out, and then the market moves in the direction you expected. You almost stopped out at the very top. You take profit, only for the market to continue moving a long way. These things happen all the time; they’re not rare. In the futures market, missing a move and getting it wrong are common. You only need to focus on one thing: whether your account is growing steadily and sustainably. What you need is to get it right, not to be perfect.

I’m increasingly convinced that the ability to hold on to your money is the highest form of money-making.

I just came across a case on a short-video platform.

The woman at the center of the story was one of the first generation of models in the 1990s. She’s from Shanghai and is now in her fifties.

She earned her first fortune modeling, married a Hong Kong man and obtained Hong Kong residency. The couple later settled in Shanghai and opened several private-dining restaurants. After thirty years of hard work building their business, they had accumulated substantial wealth.

Then the pandemic hit and their restaurant business declined. A friend she’d known since childhood lured her into an investment scam. Over the course of four years, she was swindled out of a total of 30 million yuan in cash. A lifetime of hard work was wiped out in an instant.

The shocking thing is that the scam involved practically no sophistication at all—it was just a con. The scammer told her, “I have a high-return investment opportunity. Give me your money, and I’ll pay you this much interest.” After she got a taste of the returns the first time, she went all in. In the end, she even stopped taking the profits out, letting her money “make more money” in the scheme. Whenever she needed cash, she’d ask the scammer for a little. This went on until the scammer’s funds ran dry and they were arrested. By then, the money had already been squandered, and she lost everything.

From the way this woman speaks, you can tell she has a wealth of life experience, thinks logically and is wary of human nature. She also has the shrewdness you’d expect of a businessperson. And in the end, she really did manage to get the scammer sent to prison all on her own, which shows just how astute she is. Yet even she couldn’t escape a trap built on a crime by someone she knew, her own greed, and the desire to make money without lifting a finger.

It was truly heartbreaking to watch.

At the same time, it’s made me even more determined to stick to three principles as an ordinary person trying to get by in the years ahead:

First, no investing whatsoever. I won’t put money into any project, no matter who pitches it. If I have money, I’ll put it in a fixed-term deposit. If I don’t, I’ll pay into social security and buy health insurance.

Second, don’t dream of making quick, easy money. Just earn an honest living the hard way. If you have the ability, try a small business that takes little capital and carries little risk. If you don’t, just do your job well. A steady stream of hard-earned money is the best kind of money.

Third, I’ll keep being socially awkward, spend more time with my family, and make fewer friends who might be scammers. If I can’t tell whether someone’s a scammer, I’ll just spend less time around people.

Anything else you’d add? I’ll write it all down.