ElRadarCripto

🦅 The Fed delivered the hike. Has Bitcoin priced in the next one?

Rates just rose 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%. A unanimous vote. The first increase since 2023.

But here’s what matters beyond the headline: projections point to another 25-basis-point hike before year-end. A forecast, not a promise—but hardly an “all clear.”

For crypto, higher rates mean more expensive borrowing and stronger competition from interest-paying assets. That can make sustained rallies harder.

Still, “Fed hikes = Bitcoin dumps” is a lazy trading thesis.

Markets react to the gap between expectations and reality. Even a rate hike can trigger relief if traders were positioned for something worse.

The risk? Mistaking that relief for a lasting change in direction while monetary policy keeps tightening.

Today’s hike was expected. The remaining bill is what matters.

Is $BTC ready for another hike—or is the market celebrating before the bill arrives?

#FOMC‬⁩ #FedRateWatch

The Fed can hold rates and send Bitcoin lower.
It can hike rates and trigger a rally.

Trading today’s FOMC headline alone could get expensive. 🏛️

Markets are heading into the decision expecting a 25-basis-point hike. The real question: how much is already priced in, and what comes next?

🟢 Dovish scenario
The Fed holds rates and softens its message on further tightening.

That could ease pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, giving Bitcoin, altcoins and tech stocks room to recover.

🔴 Hawkish scenario
The Fed raises rates and signals more hikes ahead.

If the message is tougher than expected, the dollar could strengthen while crypto and stocks face another round of selling.

Here’s the catch: unchanged rates can still come with a hawkish warning. An expected hike can still spark a relief rally if the guidance is softer than feared.

Watch the projections. Then listen to the press conference.

Decision: 18:00 UTC.
Press conference: 18:30 UTC.

The first candle will have plenty of confident explanations. Thirty minutes later, we’ll see how many survive.

If the Fed holds and $BTC pumps, what would convince you the rally has legs?

#bitcoin #FOMC $BTC

Your investment horizon was ten years. Your patience lasted one red weekend.

Traders and investors can hold the same asset while playing very different games.

The trouble starts when you buy based on fundamentals, then let every candle and headline rewrite your plan.

You chase a pump. Panic on the pullback. Sell. Buy back higher once everyone feels bullish again.

At that point, the news cycle is managing your portfolio.

For me, long-term conviction means knowing what I own, why I own it, and what would make me change my mind.

It also means accepting that price can move against my thesis for a while.

If the fundamentals hold, a bad week alone isn’t a reason to abandon the plan. If they deteriorate, “I’m holding for ten years” isn’t an argument for ignoring them.

The market doesn’t owe you a daily dose of reassurance.

Are you following your thesis—or waiting for every green candle to tell you you’re right?

Red candles. Instant experts. Ten different explanations.

$BTC was already falling before the PPI release. Monthly headline inflation met expectations, while core came in softer. Blaming the entire selloff on that report is fitting a story to the chart.

Gold and silver also fell. The pressure reaches beyond crypto, while Bitcoin ETF outflows point to weaker demand through that channel.

Momentum has faded. Now buyers need to show up and sustain a recovery.

A pullback doesn’t automatically break your thesis. Calling it a “buying opportunity” doesn’t prove it either.

Before buying the dip, ask yourself: are your reasons still valid, or does the lower price just make them easier to believe?

What would make you reassess your outlook?

Everyone wants to get in early. Nobody asks who gets out first.

Hunter Biden’s $LAPTOP plunged roughly 99% from its initial peak. A hypothetical $1,000 bought at the top? About $10.

Thin launch liquidity distorted those early prices. The chart showed a price, not an exit everyone could take.

A famous surname gets you headlines. It doesn’t get you buyers when you need to sell.

Before chasing “the next 100x,” ask: am I buying an opportunity—or becoming someone else’s exit?

What’s your dealbreaker with a new token: insider allocations, thin liquidity, or zero utility?

Sources: CoinGecko · Watcher.Guru

US–Iran tensions are putting pressure on Bitcoin. So far, the price is bending, not breaking.

$BTC is holding around $79K despite the latest escalation. The headlines are ugly. The sell-off? Less dramatic.

To me, this is just the first catalyst in what could be a bumpy ride over the next 10 days. Inflation data and the Fed decision still lie ahead.

Holding up is encouraging. The next test is whether that resilience survives another round of bad news.

Is Bitcoin pricing in the worst, or are buyers underestimating what comes next?

#Bitcoin #USIran #Fed

Everyone wants to be early to Bitcoin. Few want to sit through what being early feels like.

When $BTC falls, the long-term thesis suddenly has a 15-minute deadline. When it rallies, everyone becomes a long-term investor again.

That contradiction is where I want to start.

I’m Mati, the voice behind ElRadarCripto. I connect Bitcoin and crypto with macro, fundamentals and market behavior—with a long-term view and a willingness to question my own thesis.

Conviction needs evidence. Otherwise, it’s just a bag you refuse to question.

Here’s the question I’ll keep coming back to:

Did the investment thesis change, or did the price change your mood?

What would actually make you rethink your Bitcoin thesis?

#Bitcoin #Crypto