BitFrog

Profiting on both sides! Trader 0x15a4 closes positions today for $20M profit, then flips to a high-leverage short on ETH
On-chain tracking shows that on October 30, trader 0x15a4f009XXXX1e3fe0dfdb made a series of highly dramatic moves.

After holding firm for four months, the address chose to take profits today, closing long positions of 1,000 BTC (worth $78.18 million) and 10,000 ETH (worth $22.35 million), cashing in a handsome profit of over $20 million.

However, immediately after closing the long positions, the trader reversed course and opened a 20x leveraged short position of 13,000 ETH (about $29 million).

Three updates:
The authorization is revoked, but the funds are still moving. As of 13:36 on the 30th, the hacker's address had transferred about 17,260 ETH (about $38.82 million) to new wallets, with the intent to launder it through Tornado Cash. The attacker still holds about 480,000 ETH, worth around $1.08 billion, which cannot be frozen. The 18,270 BTC (about $1.41 billion) have not moved since the incident.

Stablecoins can be frozen; ETH and BTC cannot. Binance's official figures: the total impact was about $6.3 billion, of which about $3 billion has been frozen. Arkham puts the figures at $6.01 billion and $2.8 billion. About 45% to 50% has been frozen—almost entirely USDT and USDC—using the issuer powers of Tether and Circle. ETH and BTC have no issuer and no freeze button.

SAFU isn't enough; the shortfall falls on the balance sheet. The SAFU fund holds about $1.157 billion. After deducting the $3 billion already frozen, the shortfall in compensation actually paid is about $2.14 billion. CZ said the “actual net loss may be slightly over $1 billion.” The difference between the two figures depends on how much of the frozen assets is ultimately returned; the figures cannot currently be reconciled.

Two points remain unconfirmed:
Attribution: Chainalysis and TRM are highly confident the attack points to North Korea's Lazarus Group. Officials have not confirmed this, saying only that they are working with law enforcement.
Withdrawals: Binance says it expects withdrawals to resume within 48 hours; this is a target.

What to watch next:
Whether the $1.08 billion in ETH can be intercepted or flagged before it enters a mixer
Whether other hot wallets have similar authorizations; a full technical postmortem has not yet been published
Whether there will be a concentrated outflow once withdrawals resume

Note: This content is for informational purposes only. Please do your own research.

BitFrog

40 Minutes, $5.6 Billion, No Private Keys Stolen

Summary: Binance hot wallets saw approximately $5.6 billion flow out within 40 minutes. The attacker exploited EIP-7702 authorization rather than stealing private keys, and approximately $2.54 billion has been frozen.
At 4:24 a.m. on October 30, Beijing time, on-chain data showed that a Binance hot wallet labeled “Binance 14” transferred 167,464 $ETH to an address that had never appeared before, along with 63 types of tokens, including approximately 1.615 billion $USDT .
24 seconds later, “Binance 16” sent an additional 28,005 ETH to the same address. At 04:41, “Hot Wallet 34” transferred out 780 million USDC. At 04:59, another 43 million was transferred out.

Article

40 Minutes, $5.6 Billion, No Private Keys Stolen

Article

The Model Didn’t Change, but the Price Target Rose by $300,000

Summary: Bitwise updated only the input data, raising its 10-year Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, for an annualized return of 34.3%.
On October 29, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote that after updating the “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” report, and keeping last year’s model while updating only the input data, the 10-year Bitcoin price target rose from $1.3 million to $1.6 million. The projected compound annual growth rate increased from 28.3% to 34.3%, with a target year of 2036.
The pool changed, not the share
The increase comes from changes to two inputs: the projected size of the store-of-value market rose from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and the projected size of the institutional investment market rose from $216 trillion to $303 trillion.

According to on-chain monitoring, a mysterious whale entity labeled “SOL Dumper” (85ec10dc...a7fb) has sold a total of 1.02 million #sol over the past 5 days, worth approximately $104.3 million.

Data shows that a total of 7 addresses are associated with this entity. After this major sell-off, it still holds approximately 132,600 $SOL (worth about $13.32 million), with its holdings changing by -1.26% over the past 24 hours. The concentrated selling over 5 consecutive days indicates that the whale is continuing to cash out.

SOL-0.31%

Bitcoin is seesawing around the $81,000 level. As of now, #BTC is trading at $80,980, up about 0.53% on the day. It briefly recovered to around $81,240 but failed to hold above that level.

The $81,000 level had previously been viewed as a short-term line of defense. Its breach triggered large-scale leveraged liquidations, so as prices retest this area from below, they naturally face the combined pressure of holders looking to break even and residual leverage. On the flows front, after a run of consecutive net outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $110 million on the latest trading day, with BlackRock’s IBIT the main contributor. However, this is only a sign that the decline may be stabilizing and is not yet enough to confirm a trend reversal.

On the macro front, markets are generally cautious ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. The lack of conviction about the direction of markets is itself likely to limit the rebound potential of risk assets. In the short term, watch two levels: whether Bitcoin can decisively reclaim $82,000–$82,500, and whether $80,000 can continue to provide support.

Article

Tech stocks have rebounded—why hasn’t Bitcoin caught up?

The tech stocks have found buyers to take the baton while they, too, await the Fed; Bitcoin is still trying to confirm who its buyers are.
On October 27, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Nasdaq rose 1.18%, the S&P 500 gained 0.60%, and chip and AI stocks once again provided the main boost.
But crypto markets didn’t move in sync.#比特币 It briefly fell below $80,000 that day. Even as Asian tech stocks rebounded sharply, crypto assets as a whole remained weak. By October 28, Bitcoin had recovered to around $81,000. While prices had bounced back somewhat, whether the recovery can last still depends on new buyers stepping in.

Today, two long-dormant whale addresses (address #pepe ) showed unusual fund activity, moving a total of 2.27 trillion PEPE tokens ($PEPE ), with a disclosed value of approximately US$10.19 million.

The addresses involved are: 0xCXXXXX15d059D0f1 and 0x2XXXXX181e565e69.

Currently, it can only be confirmed that these two addresses experienced a large transfer of PEPE tokens, which cannot be directly equated to a sale; however, the sudden movement of such a large amount of tokens by dormant whales usually attracts market attention regarding their future whereabouts.

PEPE+2.66%

Article

$5.8 Billion: A Misleading Yardstick

Summary: Binance ETH open interest fell from $12 billion to $5.8 billion, but barely changed when measured in ETH. The apparent deleveraging is a price illusion.
BaykusCharts, an analyst at CryptoQuant, shared a comparison: Binance's Ethereum open interest is currently about $5.8 billion, roughly half of its peak of more than $12 billion last summer. Looking at this chart alone, the conclusion seems clear—massive deleveraging has taken place.
But this chart is using the wrong yardstick.
The dollar value halved; $ETH didn't.
Open interest is denominated in dollars. Meanwhile, the price of ETH also fell by about half over the same period.

Article

6.4 Million Holders—and the Unequal Amounts of Money Behind Them

Summary: RWA holders grew from 1.4 million to 6.4 million in four months. Tokenized stocks accounted for most of the increase, but addresses are not the same as investors, let alone capital.
CryptoRank's data paints a steep curve. From June to October 2026, the number of tokenized asset holders rose from around 1.4 million to 6.4 million, a roughly 4.6-fold increase. In four months, 5 million new holder addresses were added.
But the shape of the curve tells us more than the endpoint figure.
Tokenized stocks accounted for almost all the increase
Breaking down the 6.4 million, tokenized stocks were the only growth engine.

BNB+0.41%

According to the latest figures as of October 26, U.S. Eastern Time, the Bitcoin spot #etf market recorded net inflows of approximately $110 million in a single day, with all of that capital going to the same product.

Fund flows: BlackRock’s IBIT stands alone

All of the day’s net inflows came from IBIT, managed by BlackRock. None of the other Bitcoin spot ETF products saw significant net inflows or outflows that day. As a result, IBIT’s cumulative historical net inflows rose to $66.244 billion.

Overview of the market as a whole

The overall figures for Bitcoin spot ETFs are as follows:

Total net assets: approximately $102.840 billion
Net asset ratio (ETF market capitalization as a share of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization): 6.41%
Cumulative historical net inflows across the market: $57.293 billion

Overall, the flow picture was one of “inflows led by a single product, with the rest remaining on the sidelines,” with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the overwhelming share of the day’s #比特币 ETF fund flows.

IBITETF-4.42%

Two sizable ETH deposits were detected on-chain:

Address 0x882…42058 deposited 2,558.5 tokens of #ETH to an exchange, worth approximately $5.9 million. This address accumulated its holdings in batches between 2025 and 2026, at an average withdrawal price of around $2,880, so if it chooses to sell now, it would essentially be exiting at a loss.

Another address, 0x5a3…Cf9F5, became active again after 11 months of dormancy: 2 hours ago, it redeemed 2,511 tokens of $ETH from Aave and deposited them all into Binance, worth approximately $5.79 million.

Data shows that address 0x129…72EbE began building positions in altcoins such as ZRO, WLD, and CHIP in early October, with an initial investment of about $8.09 million. Over the following ten days, it added another roughly $2.7 million, bringing its total investment to about $10.79 million. At current prices, the address is sitting on an overall unrealized loss of about $1.904 million.

Here are the specific holdings:

- ZRO: 2.55 million tokens, average cost of $2.08, unrealized loss of about $970,000;
- WLD: 6.3 million tokens, average cost of $0.5189, unrealized loss of about $568,000;
- BAT: 5.77 million tokens, average cost of $0.1981, unrealized loss of about $288,000;
- CHIP: 20 million tokens, average cost of $0.04928, unrealized loss of about $77,000.

Overall, the address continued adding to its positions after opening them in early October, but these altcoin holdings have yet to turn profitable, with cumulative unrealized losses approaching $1.9 million.

An early ETH address that had been dormant for many years recently became active. The address participated in the ICO back in 2015, acquiring 100,000 ETH at $0.311 each, for a total cost of about $31,000.

In 2016, six months after building its position, it sold half—50,000 #ETH —at $5.47 each, cashing out for about $274,000, a return of roughly 17x. The remaining 50,000 ETH stayed untouched until today, 11 years later, when it began to move.

On-chain records show that the address transferred 5,000 $ETH over a two-hour period. Of these, 1,500 ETH have flowed into centralized exchanges, with a reported value of about $3.45 million.

Article

With $80,000 breached, ETH liquidations remain the heaviest burden

Summary: BTC fell below $80,000, with $815 million liquidated over 24 hours, mostly from long positions; ETH’s market cap is about 18% of BTC’s, yet its liquidation volume remains close to 90% of BTC’s.
Early on October 26, Bitcoin fell below $80,000. Bitget market data showed BTC/USDT at $79,955.81, down 1.15% on the day. Gate data showed BTC at $79,940.2, down 0.82% over 24 hours.
This is the second time this week BTC has fallen below that level. On October 24, BTC briefly dipped to $79,280 before climbing back above $80,000. The brief weekend breach did not turn into a sustained breakdown, but returning to the same level shows that the $80,000 support is not holding firmly.

Article

Market cap rises 39.6%, while trading volume shrinks

Summary: In Q3, total crypto market capitalization rose 39.6% to $3 trillion, led by ETH’s 71% gain. However, average daily trading volume fell 8.6% quarter over quarter, while perpetual open interest increased 40.6%.
CoinGecko’s 2026 Q3 crypto industry report paints a contradictory picture: market capitalization is rising, trading volume is falling, and leverage is ballooning.
Total market capitalization rose 39.6% quarter over quarter, increasing by $840.1 billion to approximately $3 trillion. This ended three consecutive quarters of decline and marked the largest quarterly gain since Q4 2024. However, total market capitalization is still down 4% year to date. The rebound started from the lows of a deep correction, not from the beginning of a new expansion.

HYPE-0.51%

Article

At $80,000, risk assets are tied to the same rope

Summary: BTC fell to $81,387, with $441 million in liquidations over 24 hours; the Nasdaq dropped 2.6% as AI spending concerns and geopolitical risks converged.
On October 23, #比特币 fell 3.4% over 24 hours to $81,387. CoinGlass data shows that approximately 100,605 traders were liquidated across the crypto market in the past 24 hours, totaling $441 million. About $397 million of that came from long positions, accounting for 90%.
A day ago, the Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.6%, its worst single-day performance since June; the S&P 500 fell 1.21%; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.72%. Meta fell nearly 7%, while Intel and AMD dropped more than 8%.

Article

18.3% for payment growth, just 6.9% for cheap tokens

Summary: While BTC traded sideways for two months, DeFi tokens with payment growth above 25% had a median return of 18.3%, compared with just 6.9% for the cheaper group. Valuation multiples did not explain returns.
From August 22 to October 20, BTC’s daily closing price stayed between $75,600 and $86,600. Over two months, it gained 5.6% in total. ETH fell 2.7% over the same period.
Over the same period, 14 of the 19 DeFi tokens that pay revenue to holders outperformed BTC. The median return was +12.9%, more than twice BTC’s. Raydium rose 178%.
But what’s really worth examining isn’t which tokens rose, but what explains the gains and losses.
Split the 19 tokens into two groups

Article

Bitcoin Retests $81,000 as ETF Cost Basis Comes Under Threat

Summary: Glassnode says Bitcoin is retesting the $81,000 cost basis for ETF holdings. The level capped a rally in May before a sharp decline; a decisive break below it could lead to a drop toward $70,000.
On October 22, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin is once again testing the ETF holdings cost basis at around $81,000. This level previously capped Bitcoin’s rally in May, after which the market fell sharply. Last week, the price briefly dipped below it before quickly recovering.
A price level being tested repeatedly is nothing unusual. What makes $81,000 special is that it is not a technical support or resistance level, but a line drawn from the actual purchase costs.