Cryptanov

The market is falling, but my trend filter has been keeping longs off-limits for almost a day now 📉

Late last night, it already said: longs — STOP. Those who were watching didn’t try to catch a falling knife.

Since the evening of 11/11:
BTC −3.7%
ETH −3.0%

BTC and ETH have reached an important level. At times like these, there’s often one more sharp candle down to flush out the longs. I don’t short in moments like these, and I don’t recommend that you do either. I wait.

The most interesting moment is when the filter allows longs again. That’s what’s worth watching 👀

Everything is out in the open: every signal, every day, no polished screenshots. Check it yourself.

Find Cryptanov 🔎 — that’s where you’ll find the market outlook, signals, and all the stats.

Not financial advice.

$BTC $ETH
#cryptanov #crypto #trading

Why I don’t like “signals for everything” 🙃

I took all our signals since June. No filters, all levels, all coins.

59,313 signals. 70% profitable. Sounds impressive, right?

But the average result per signal after fees is +0.02%. In other words, practically ZERO.

The whole difference comes down to which signals you take. Small pullbacks are often profitable, but the gains are tiny and fees eat them up. Deep pullbacks work, but there aren’t many of them.

So when you see a channel claiming “90% accuracy,” ask how much the average trade makes after fees. Usually, that’s where the conversation ends 😏

#трейдинг #сигналы #crypto

Why I don't trade every coin on Binance (even though my system "works" on many of them) 🤔

I ran the same strategy on two baskets over 5 years:
• my 34 coins
• 34 other coins, picked only by how long they've been listed

The other 34 still made money every single year. Nice. But the drawdown was deeper and the worst year was much weaker (+6% vs +18%).

So the edge is real beyond my list. But the coin choice decides how much it hurts on the way.

Big, liquid, moves with the market = smoother ride. Wild solo coins = same idea, more pain.

#crypto #trading #altcoins

Is a doji candle a reversal signal? I tested it 🕯

34 coins, 5 years of daily candles: 55,146 days. A doji appears roughly 1 day in 10.

• After a doji, the price went up the next day 49% of the time.
• After any candle: also 49%.
• After a drop of 8%+ over 3 days: 50% with a doji, 52% without one.

Difference: zero. On its own, a doji is a coin toss 😅

Measure, don't believe. Cryptanov
#trading #cripto #candlesticks

100× leverage isn’t “more profit.” It’s less room for error 🙃

Simple math:
• 10× — liquidation at roughly a 10% move against you
• 20× — at 5%
• 100× — at 1%

And 1% for any altcoin is just a couple of minutes of ordinary noise. Not even news—just some big player selling.

Those impressive +250% screenshots at 100× are just a ~2.5% price move. The person got the direction right, but just as easily could’ve been wiped out by a 1% move the other way.

I trade without leverage. Boring? Yes. At least there’s never an “oh, it’s all gone” moment.

#крипта #плечо #trading

Model vs exchange. The check nobody likes doing 😬

Every backtest assumes a price. The exchange gives you a different one: slippage, fees, the order that fills a bit later than planned.

So every week I compare what my model says with what actually landed on the exchange.

Latest check: the exchange delivered about 96% of the signal's move. The other ~4% is the real-world tax. Small, but it's there, and it adds up over thousands of trades.

If your strategy only works with 100% of the move, it doesn't work. Build in the tax before you go live.

#trading #crypto #backtest

A market asymmetry I found in my data 🤔

• A sharp drop over an hour → most often gets bought up, and the price recovers
• A sharp rise over an hour → most often continues

Tested over 5 years and 34 coins. Shorting after a rapid pump loses money, and the faster the pump, the bigger the loss: at +8% in an hour, the average is −1.7% per trade.

In other words, “shorting because it’s gone up a lot” is one of the most expensive habits. After a sharp rise, the market more often wipes out short sellers than reverses 😬

Measure, don’t believe.
#крипта #трейдинг #short

Backtest vs forward test. If you only remember one thing from my posts, let it be this 👇

Backtest = you run your rules on old data. You already know what happened, so it's very easy to (accidentally) tune the rules to the past.

Forward test = you freeze the rules and let them run on days that haven't happened yet. No edits, no "oh that one doesn't count".

I've had backtests showing +30% that turned into −21% on data they'd never seen. Happens to everyone who's honest enough to check 🙃

That's why I post the forward test every day. Good days, flat days, red days. It's the only number I trust.

#trading #backtest #crypto

High win rate = profit? Not always 😅

In our live test since June:
• small pullbacks (0.5%): 78% of trades in the green
• deep pullbacks (6–10%): only 65–67% in the green

Seems like smaller is better, right? Not quite.
Small gains are tiny, and fees eat up almost all of them. Deep pullbacks win less often, but each win is worth much more.

Look at how much you make per trade, not how many times you win.

Measure, don't believe. Cryptanov
#trading #cripto #winrate

A question for those who’ve been trading for a long time 👇

What matters more to you in a strategy:
1️⃣ a high win rate (70–90% of trades are profitable)
2️⃣ a large average profit with a 50% win rate
3️⃣ a small drawdown, even if the returns are more modest

A year ago, I would’ve chosen the first option without a second thought 😅 Now, it’s the third. Because I’ve seen strategies with 70% profitable trades that lost everything on a couple of big losses. And trend-following strategies with a 50% win rate that still made money.

You feel drawdowns in your hands and nerves. The win rate is something you only see.

Reply with a number—I’m curious 🙂
#трейдинг #крипта #risk

"Buy the dip" sounds simple until one coin dips… and never comes back 💀

I replayed our dip-buying module on 17 coins that died in 2021–2023. LUNA, FTT and friends.

What hurt the most wasn't the drop itself. It was buying MORE on the way down, because every new low looked like a discount.

Two boring rules fixed most of it:
1. if a coin's last trades keep losing, stop touching it for a while
2. if one coin crashes way harder than the whole market, no new entries

Without them, the 17 dead coins together cost −166% of the deposit over the test. With them: −13%.

The rule I live by now: before asking "how much can it make", ask "how much can one coin take from me".

#riskmanagement #crypto #trading

How I stopped believing pretty backtests 😅

I found a rule for a screener. From August to November: +16…+35% over 3 months, with a reasonable drawdown. I was already rubbing my hands 🙌

Then I downloaded the data for May–July. The months the rule “hadn’t seen.” I ran it.

−21%. Red July, red June.

Turns out the whole “discovery” hinged on one lucky September. A classic case of overfitting to history.

Since then, my rule is simple: if you find something, test it on data you haven’t touched. If it doesn’t hold up there, it’s not a strategy—it’s a coincidence.

Measure, don’t believe.
#трейдинг #бэктест #crypto

Uncomfortable stat from 5 years of our system 👇

The best ~7 days of the year bring about HALF of the yearly profit. The other ~330 days are mostly flat: a little up, a little down, nothing to post about.

And here's the trap: those big days usually come right after ugly ones. Sharp dump, panic, then the rebound. Exactly when most people "take a break" or switch the bot off 😅

Every time I tested "pause after losses", it got worse. The pause switches you off right before the rare good day.

Show up every day. Size small. Survive the boring and the ugly. The rockets come on their own schedule.

#trading #crypto #mindset

November 12 results by evening 📊

113 signals, 61% in the green, +0.12% per trade after commission. A so-so day, the market was sluggish, and the trend filter kept buys on pause.

But some still managed to pull ahead:
$ZEC +13.4% · $JUP +8.5% · $AVAX +7.3% · ORDI +5.8% · HBAR +4.4%
(total signals per coin for the day, after commission)

Half of the coins were in the red today—and I’m not hiding that. Days like these are part of the system too 🤷‍♂️

All stats are public. Cryptanov
#крипта #трейдинг #dayresults

The EMA200 bounce. Every chart guy draws it. Does it actually work? 🤔

I checked touches of the 200 EMA from above on 4h charts.

The touch by itself: roughly nothing. Sometimes it bounces, sometimes it slices right through.

Add two conditions and it changes:
• the EMA itself rose 1.66%+ over the last 4 days
• the overall market is bullish

769 cases. Average after 24h: +2.27%. Take profit hit before stop in 63% of cases. On fresh data it got weaker (+1.56%) but stayed positive.

So the line isn't magic. The context is. A pullback in an uptrend ≠ a touch in a downtrend.

#trading #EMA #crypto

Trailing stops are the favorite toy of people who “want to lock in profits” 🙂

I tested one on a trend-following strategy: 608 trades over 4.5 years.

• hold for exactly 24 hours: average gain of +6.8% per winning trade
• trailing stop: average gain of just +3.2%

Portfolio returns fell by roughly three times 😬

Why? In a trend, all the profit comes from rare, big moves. A trailing stop kicks you out at the very first pullback—right before the coin takes off.

Want to catch big moves? Give them room. Otherwise, it’s not trend-following—it’s just stress.

#трейдинг #крипта #strategy

Small thing I learned the hard way: a 92% win day and a 59% win day can both be normal 🙂

Our forward test this week:
Nov 11: 91% of signals green
Nov 12 (so far): 59% green, basically flat

Same system. Same rules. The market just did different things.

If you judge a strategy by one day, you'll quit the good ones on a bad Tuesday and marry the bad ones on a lucky Friday 😅 Look at months, not days.

Measure, don't believe.

#trading #crypto #mindset

I added 33 new coins to my system and… things got worse 😬

I tested it over 5 years. The logic was simple: more coins = more trades = more profit. Yeah, not so much.

• before: even the worst year was profitable, with a 13.5% drawdown
• with 33 new coins: the worst year was nearly twice as bad, with a 28% drawdown

On average, the new coins generated half as much per trade as the old ones. And when I picked just 11 steady, liquid coins, the result was slightly better than the original.

The takeaway: more ≠ better. Every coin in your portfolio has to earn its place with the numbers 📊

Measure, don’t assume.
#крипта #трейдинг #altcoins

Today is not a pretty day, and I'm posting it anyway 🤷‍♂️

Nov 12 so far: 108 signals, only 59% green, +0.05% per signal after fees. Basically flat. Half the coins in the red.

Yesterday was 91% green. Today the market filter put buying on pause for a good part of the day.

That's how it actually looks from the inside. Great days, flat days, red days. Anyone who shows you only the 91% days is selling you the 91% days 😅

Top so far: $ZEC +13.4% · $AVAX +7.3% · ORDI +5.8%

Every trade is public. Cryptanov

#crypto #trading #forwardtest

I wanted to find “short coins.” You know, the kind that are always falling and that you should be shorting 📉

I took 265 coins and six months of minute-by-minute data. I tested 96 different screening rules: correlation, volatility, volume, coin age…

Not a single one worked 🙃 Not one at all.

Worse still: the coins that were best to short in May–July gave zero returns in August–November. And the ones that were the worst to short became the best. A complete reshuffle.

Here’s the simple conclusion I came to: shorting depends not on the coin, but on the situation. I’ll keep looking, but “coins that are always falling” don’t exist.

#трейдинг #шорт #crypto