$BTC has probed the high around 87,000 After it gets smashed down In the next 24 hours, the whole network liquidates about $434 million Longs liquidated about $322 million Shorts liquidated about $112 million Longs make up roughly 74% In the past 12 hours, longs have nearly been maxed out Single-coin liquidation on Bitcoin is about $104 million Ethereum is also around the $105 million level Yesterday we were still talking about the shorts getting liquidated first But the price action flipped the direction Spot has now returned to around 84,800 Let it range between 84,000–85,000 first
Don’t chase the liquidation direction and add leverage Wait until the shakeout becomes dull before discussing direction
There are reports that the U.S. Zcash spot ETF this week had net outflows of about $93.56 million Since it was listed at the end of August, this is the first time net outflows have occurred in a single week. Fund net assets are down to roughly the $750 million level
Spot is around 1308. In a day, about -1%. The day’s high is still around 1335. The low dipped to around 1283. Trading volume is about $95 million. From the September peak near 1700, it’s already given back quite a bit.
Outflows don’t mean it will go to zero right away, but it’s a fact that buy-side liquidity has thinned. First, watch who can take the 1280–1335 range. If it can’t be held, don’t chase highs—beta first.
Oil Prices Are Soaring, Gold Prices Are Plunging: Understanding the Logic Behind This “Abnormal” Move to Know What Your Wallet Is Experiencing
Oil prices are surging and gold prices are plunging: understanding the logic behind this “abnormality” is how you know what your wallet is going through In recent times, global financial markets have seen a curious scene: gold has plunged while oil has surged. On one side, the king of commodities—crude oil prices—keeps climbing; on the other, the traditional safe-haven asset, gold, is being sold off. These two types of assets are usually seen as barometers of inflation expectations, yet they are now tracing almost completely opposite paths. What macro logic lies behind this? And for ordinary people, how will this “oil rising and gold falling” show up in the ledgers of everyday life?
Fear greed drops to 65 $BTC first managed to spit out 87,000
Spot is about 84,800 Up about +0.2% per day The day high is still at 85,000 The low was poked around 84,500 $ETH about 2,690 $SOL about 120 Yesterday greed was still at 67 Today it moved down one more notch
87,000 didn’t hold For now it’s grinding between 84,000–85,000 Don’t treat a pullback as the trend—it's already dead And don’t treat a rebound as a breakout to solve everything First look at 84,000 Who can take it up above
$IBIT’s single-day net inflow is roughly $196 million All Bitcoin spot ETF across the whole market add up to only about $103 million Others combined are net outflows It alone turned the price action green
Over the past month $IBIT has accumulated net purchases of about $1.57 billion accounting for more than half of the total net inflow into all spot ETFs Its scale is around the $109 billion range
Spot $BTC is roughly 84,700 down about −2.1% in a day the day high is still around 87,200 the low was poked around 83,900 Fear & Greed is still at 67
Institutional channels are still buying It doesn’t mean that once above 87,000 is already fully cleared First, look at who can hold up 84.0–85.0 If they can’t, just treat the “ETF inflow” as background noise
Ali Charts calls it out In the sideways trading over the past week, whale holdings have dropped by about 30,000 coins. At the current price, that’s on the order of about $2.5B. 87k is exactly sitting right at the top of the recent channel. A push higher getting capped a bit isn’t surprising.
Spot is around 84,600. Down about −2.1% in a day. The day’s high is still 87,220. The low was probed down to about 83,900. Fear & Greed is still at 67.
Long liquidations already played out once during the day. The whale is still cutting positions. Distribution at the highs may not be finished.
First, see if 82,500 has a real buyer to catch it. If it can’t hold, don’t treat a rebound as a reversal.
SEC custody rules have pushed forward another step
For investment advisers and funds when they cannot find a qualified custodian, they may allow certain self-custody for clients’ encrypted assets State-chartered trust companies can also be added to the custody roster This is paving the way for institutions to directly obtain coins Not to hand retail investors fresh leverage
Spot $BTC at around 84,600 Down about −2.1% in a day The day’s high is still around 87,200 The low tapped about 83,900 Fear & Greed is still at 67
A proposal doesn’t mean it can be bought immediately It still has to go through the comment period before implementation Don’t hear “can be custodied” and take it as “start right away” First, check that the rules are explicitly written Let’s talk about position sizing
$ENA The door unlock is only two days away The price is still being pushed down
Spot is about 0.232 About −7% per day The day high is still 0.252 The low was poked down to around 0.228 Trading volume is about 42 million USD
On October 5, investors will unlock about 1.4 billion tokens That’s roughly more than 10% of the circulating supply Once it’s released early, it’s all gone
No It’s not a big deal
bStocks / The narrative is still there Doesn’t mean you can just close your eyes and chase before the unlock
First, see who steps in above 0.23 If they can’t hold it, then cut a bit first—don’t just enjoy the noise
$QNT Just after getting poked and slammed 224 Now it has already swallowed the dip back again
Spot is about 266 Up about +17% in a day The intraday high has touched 267 The low is still at 224 Trading volume is still around the 70M dollars level The bank-rail narrative hasn’t died The parabolic pullback is not over either The two-day consecutive wash—worst if you end up chasing both sides
First, see who can hold up 255–267 If it can’t hold, just treat it as a volatility digestion phase Don’t let the Sibos headline get played twice again
The SEC has widened the leverage gap by another notch
What was approved is the Cboe listing rules Covering 3x $BTC and $ETH Also gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas A total of six Volatility Shares products Using futures exposure Leverage resets once per day
Note: Passing the rules doesn’t mean you can buy You still have to wait for the S-1 registration to become effective There is currently no trading schedule Spot $BTC has just been dumped from 87,200 back to about 84,600 Down about -1.7% in a day Fear & Greed is still at 67
Approval is a signal It doesn’t mean you immediately get the leverage fuel First distinguish between “can be listed” and “can place an order”
$BTC has been poked at 87,200 today After a few hours, it was smashed back to around 84,000 Spot is around 84,500 Down about -2.3% for the day The low got tapped to around 83,900
Across the whole web, total 24-hour liquidations are about $580 million Long positions are about $330 million Short positions are about $250 million In that one hour when it got smashed down, the long positions' share hit the ceiling
This morning we were still talking about shorts getting wrecked first By the afternoon, the market flipped the direction Don't chase liquidating orders by adding leverage First, see who can hold up 8.38–8.50
$NVDA touched a new intraday high but at the close it gave back part of the gains
US stocks closed at about 234 up about +1.3% for the day day high brushed 237.9 the low is still 233.6 market cap is about $5.7 trillion still about one step short of $6 trillion Amazon is still discussing roughly $8 billion Nvidia chips are carved out into an SPV and then leased back the buyback authorization was also increased by another $150 billion the AI supply chain continues to lift its footing
Making a new high is a signal not automatic perpetual motion first look at 234–238—who takes the baton next if you can’t hold it, treat it as the pullback after the top
This time, futures fees were learned by the shorts
$BTC surged past 86,000 in that hour The entire market was liquidated for roughly $121 million Shorts were about $119 million liquidated Longs were about $2.55 million Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin shorts liquidated are still on the order of around $140 million The intraday high touched 87,200 Spot has now returned to around 84,600
Yesterday, the longs were the ones washed out first Today the ratio has flipped back again A short squeeze can push prices up But it doesn’t mean there’s no liquidity wall above
Don’t chase the liquidation direction and add leverage Wait for the 84,000–87,200 range to shake and turn dull before talking about direction
$WLD Yesterday it was still bleeding out Today it has already bought back the drop
Spot is about 0.577 Over one day, roughly +18% It touched the day high around 0.590 The low is still at 0.486 Trading volume is about 80 million USD The AI-identity narrative is still in play And the volume ratio has clearly picked up too After the breakout, the most frightening part is when it fills both gaps and you end up chasing from either side
First, look at 0.50–0.59—who can hold up if it breaks? If it can’t hold, don’t just keep repeating the identity narrative
$AAVE has directly reached this year’s new high zone
Spot is around 184 In a day, roughly +10.2% The day high reached 187.5 The low is still at 164 Trading volume is about $56 million Yesterday they were still talking about big holders moving/accumulating inventory Today the price first lifts itself up to the previous position
A new yearly high doesn’t mean it’s about to launch immediately First, watch whether it can hold above the 180–187 area in terms of volume/market strength If it can’t hold, then treat it as a DeFi overheating pullback and fill-in
$AAVE has directly reached this year’s new high zone
Spot is around 184 In a day, roughly +10.2% The day high reached 187.5 The low is still at 164 Trading volume is about $56 million Yesterday they were still talking about big holders moving/accumulating inventory Today the price first lifts itself up to the previous position
A new yearly high doesn’t mean it’s about to launch immediately First, watch whether it can hold above the 180–187 area in terms of volume/market strength If it can’t hold, then treat it as a DeFi overheating pullback and fill-in
Fear and greed sink to 72 $BTC , but first touched 87.2k $BTC Spot price is roughly 85,200 About +1.0% per day The day’s high hung above 87,200 The low is still at 84,100 $ETH is roughly 2,695 $SOL is roughly 120 Yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETF turned back to net inflows of about $103M That $149M outflow from the day before was covered over
Sentiment is still stuck on greed Funds first relit the 8.5 range above Don’t treat 87k as stable Watch who can hold 85.0–87.2k
Spot price is about 4.84 Down about -8% per day The day’s high even touched 5.54 The low has already bounced back to 4.74 Trading volume is about 230 million USD On the Intents side, there’s an estimated 3.8 million USD vulnerability Service has been fixed; they promised full compensation But the market first dumped panic The Bitwise NRR listing story is still ongoing ETF hype hasn’t been cancelled The batch that followed the rise got washed out first as well
A cross-chain incident doesn’t mean the main chain is zero And it doesn’t mean the ETF will be flooded with liquidity immediately First, see whether there are real buyers taking in above 4.8–5.0 If there’s no volume, don’t keep turning the news headline into a mess for more money Next
$AAVE A big whale took action first Prices are still being added to upward
On-chain monitoring shows a large transaction of about 39,000,000 tokens Approximately $6.2 million withdrawn from Kraken Spot holdings are around 1.72 In a day about +7.8% The day high touched 1.75 The low is still 1.59 Yesterday they were talking about giving it back/withdrawing Today funds first moved the stash back Then pushed the price up another step
Whale buying doesn’t necessarily mean it will take off immediately First, watch whether there’s sustained volume above 1.70–1.75 If it can’t hold, then treat it as a DeFi rebound patch $ #Spot #AAVE #DeFi
$ENA is still pumping But the Oct 5 unlock is right at the door
Spot is about 0.270 In a day about +9.5% Intraday high touched 0.281 The low is still at 0.244 Trading volume about $100M USDe endorsement dragged into Binance bStocks Then pair with shorting stocks perps to eat funding fees After that, there are still about 1.4 billion tokens that investors will unlock
The structural story is solid It doesn’t mean you can blindly chase before the unlock First, watch who takes the trade above 0.27 If it can’t be held, reduce a little first to cool things down