無名先生

#ETH #BTC

A five-year compression—rare in history.

Once this level of convergence is released, the energy won’t be small.

ETH/BTC moves first, then capital overflows into other altcoins—this is the typical path.

The key is whether it can effectively break through that level.

#BTC

“Tomorrow is the worst day of 2026,” you can hear statements like this several times every year.

Getting it right once doesn’t mean you’ll be right this time.

Descriptions like “never failed” are based on small sample sizes to begin with.

I don’t predict tomorrow—I’ll see how the price moves and then decide.

#BTC

The longer it trades sideways, the stronger the breakout can be—but the direction isn’t necessarily the one we expected.

The logic behind pulling back to 68K is that the selling pressure hasn’t fully been released yet.

But if sentiment flips after this week’s FOMC meeting, it’s not impossible for it to move upward.

I won’t bet on any single direction—I'll follow once the signals show up.

#BTC #GOLD

Most people only look at BTC versus the US dollar and not BTC versus gold.

But gold is the real hard-asset reference.

When BTC versus gold strengthens, it means its position in this system is rising.

Breakout, pullback, and reconfirmation—this rhythm is unfolding now.

If it continues afterward, that would mean BTC’s strength is not just a dollar issue.

#BTC

Interest rates, yields, and fiscal stimulus tug against each other.

This kind of contradiction usually doesn’t resolve gradually; it ends when one side can’t hold on first.

If yields keep moving higher, risky assets will first go through a round of forced selling.

Only then does policy respond.

Order matters—don’t rush to bottom-fish in the first paragraph.

#BTC

You can listen, but you decide your position.

Right now, the price is neither up nor down; the direction hasn’t been set yet.

If you want to take action, wait for the breakout.

If you don’t, just keep watching.

#BTC

The logic of this script is: first, pull up to liquidate the shorts, and then bring it down.

Both paths point to 65K, but the process is different.

For 81K, the timeframe is shorter; for 85K, it’s more grinding.

I prefer to wait until it finishes pulling up before taking action, without setting up in advance.

#BTC

CLARITY Act If there is progress within two days, 90K+ is a reasonable target.

76K is the prerequisite; as long as it doesn’t break, this path holds.

If it breaks, review again.

Overall, I’m still leaning bullish—waiting for the results this week.

#BTC

The vote under the CLARITY Act on September 15 was a 60-vote procedural threshold, not the final approval. If it passes, it’s a positive signal; if it doesn’t, talks will continue.

As for the overall framework, I’m inclined to believe it can be signed before the end of the year, but we are still in the second step—not the endpoint.

The institutions haven’t stopped.

Nasdaq invested $100 million into Kraken’s parent company, Payward. Circle’s Arc mainnet goes live on September 16, and among the founding validating nodes are BlackRock, Visa, and Mastercard.

The push for digital financial infrastructure is much bigger in opportunity than what the first headline might suggest.

#ETH

ETH has been ranging between 2400 and 2550 for a long time, and this range will eventually break.

Whether it goes up or down—there’s currently no clear answer.

Calling it a “major crash” or a “major surge” is essentially just betting.

I’m more inclined to wait for confirmation of the breakout rather than placing a bet in advance.

#BTC

This path sounds pretty complete, but the market rarely follows the script.

If 77K is a key level, then it either holds or breaks—there won’t be much room for explanation in between.

I’ll wait for the price to choose on its own; I won’t pick sides in advance.

#BTC

Fear and Greed Index: 63 — still in the Greed range.

Not extreme, which means emotions aren’t overheating.

At this position, there is usually still room to move higher.

What really needs caution is when it’s above 80.

Right now, it’s still healthy.

#BTC

This trend really does resemble that part of 2022 in some ways, but falling to 50K in 30 days is too tightly compressed in terms of time.

In that 2022 downturn, it took several months, with some back-and-forth in the middle as well. If this time is truly going to copy the pattern, then the pace is likely to be slower than this.

I agree that the bottom area hasn’t been fully confirmed yet, but that doesn’t mean it’s about to collapse immediately. You can be slightly cautious about the direction, but don’t make overly rigid predictions about the magnitude.

#BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP

The fake [or counterfeit] surrender has already run its course; what needed to be cut is cut, what needed to be washed is washed.

Next, if BTC’s market share starts turning downward, capital will flow into the fakes.

This is the typical pathway for the “fake season” to begin.

Now we’re waiting for that turning point.

#BTC

I originally thought we would first go take a look around 70K, but the current trend is stronger than expected.

Repeated tests around 75–76K without breaking it indicate that there is genuine support at this level.

If it can hold steady and push upward next, 95K is a reasonable target range.

75K is the baseline. If it breaks, then we'll reassess.

#BTC

This rebound has already run its course.

Next comes the process of digestion and forming a base, with some ups and downs in between.

Earlier, we also predicted the turning points for 16K and 126K in advance; this time is the same.

Wait until the bottom structure is completed, then act.

#BTC

83K is the key resistance level for this round, and it has been repeatedly rejected over the past few months.

If it can break through effectively and hold, then 100K will be the next target.

Once it passes 100K, the previous high will be in sight.

But the prerequisite is that 83K is truly flipped, not just another fakeout.

Wait for confirmation.

#BTC

The big biscuit’s market share has reached a crucial level.

Break upward and funds will flow back into BTC, while altcoins continue to be bled dry.

Break downward and the altcoin season will truly begin.

The direction from this point will determine whether to keep tightly holding BTC or start shifting toward altcoins.

Wait for direction to be confirmed—don’t pick sides early.

#BTC

If today closes below this line, then this candlestick pattern will look very bad.

It’s not a matter of how much it fell—it's about the position and structure.

First, look at the close. Once it closes, then we’ll talk about what comes next.

#ETH

ETH has indeed been more stable than BTC lately, but stability doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to rise.

Low volatility, strong follow-through, and no breakdown—these are all facts.

But the same facts can also be interpreted as “there isn’t enough buy-side interest to push it higher,” and it’s just digesting at the current level.

The 3000 target itself isn’t a problem, but it depends on the macro environment cooperating.

If CPI or the FOMC surprises, it’s also not impossible for ETH to fall back below 2200.

I’m bullish on the direction, but I have reservations about the timing and pace.