Bitcoin is trading near $80,000–$81,000 ahead of today's Fed decision. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with a hold roughly 90% priced. BTC got a small lift from a tech-stock rally on chip earnings, but gains stayed capped by caution before the announcement.
On the "short crypto, long stocks" oddity — that is a coherent trade, not a mystery. When the Fed turns hawkish, the dollar strengthens and speculative assets take the hit while quality equities can still hold. Bitcoin is already about 36% below its all-time high of $126,080, sitting near the bottom of its $80,000–$87,000 range below the 50-day EMA.
## One Number In Your Draft Is Wrong
says rates are expected unchanged at 4.0%, but the target range is 3.75%–4.00% — September's hike took it there. A hold means staying in that range, not "at 4.0%" alone.
Also worth flagging: your claim that "after the last FOMC meeting, Bitcoin pumped +15%" doesn't match the record. BTC rose from about $76,000 on hike day to above $85,000 by September 30 on cooler inflation data — roughly a 12% move, and it came with the inflation print, not from the Fed alone.
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$BTC — the direct play. Key levels: $79,221 and the 200-day EMA near $76,380 as support, $82,000 needed to keep the bull case alive
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$ETH — traded around $2,327 in the same cautious week, and near $2,690 at September's close. It moves with the same risk appetite, so it takes the same hit if Warsh sounds hawkish
- $SOL — no specific figure appears in these sources, so I won't invent one. It trades as a high-beta risk asset, meaning it typically amplifies BTC's move in either direction
What actually moves the market today: Warsh's signal on December, Thursday's PCE inflation data, and roughly $11 billion in options expiry Friday. Volatility is more likely to come from those than from any single wallet.
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Bitcoin is trading around $80,900, up 1.2%, recovering from a low of $79,496 earlier this week.
The Fed decision drops today. A hold at 3.75%–4.00% is roughly 90% priced. The real question isn't today — it's December, where another hike is still heavily priced.
Why the caution? Sticky inflation, elevated Treasury yields, and expectations of more tightening have cooled appetite for speculative assets. BTC sits about 36% below its $126,080 all-time high.
Key levels to watch:
→ Support: $79,221, then the 200-day EMA near $76,380
→ Resistance: $82,000 must hold to keep the bull case intact
→ Below $80,000 opens $77,400–$76,200
On the viral "insider 10x short" post: no verified source confirms it. Trade the data, not the rumor.
Coins in focus: BTC ETH $SOL
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