STURMANDOB
48 Posts
STURMANDOB
Дневник анализа крипто-фьючерсов с помощью инструментов для отслеживания тренда и метрик:Smart Money, Alligator и т.д... Не сигналы, а реальный процесс разбора.
XRP Holder
High-Frequency Trader
5.6 Years
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🚨 #BTC | August — a difficult month for Bitcoin
📉 Over the last 13 completed years, August closed higher only 4 times. The median is -6.99%, one of the worst figures of the year.
🐻 In bearish cycles, the picture is even tougher:
• 2014 — -17.55%
• 2018 — -9.27%
• 2022 — -13.88%
On the charts, you can see how those Augustes ended: declines of 38%, 62%, and 72% by the end of the cycle.
This August closed with a symbolic gain of 0.26%.
⚠️ But seasonality is a weak factor. 13 observations are statistically too few—it's easy to spot a pattern that may not actually exist. What matters more is volumes, liquidity, and levels right now.
👀 According to statistics, September is even worse: median -3.12%.
An observation, not a signal 🙏
📉 Over the last 13 completed years, August closed higher only 4 times. The median is -6.99%, one of the worst figures of the year.
🐻 In bearish cycles, the picture is even tougher:
• 2014 — -17.55%
• 2018 — -9.27%
• 2022 — -13.88%
On the charts, you can see how those Augustes ended: declines of 38%, 62%, and 72% by the end of the cycle.
This August closed with a symbolic gain of 0.26%.
⚠️ But seasonality is a weak factor. 13 observations are statistically too few—it's easy to spot a pattern that may not actually exist. What matters more is volumes, liquidity, and levels right now.
👀 According to statistics, September is even worse: median -3.12%.
An observation, not a signal 🙏
$HYPE — two tops? 👀
Price 52.14, minus 0.82%.
I’m looking at the daily chart and I see a structure that’s hard not to notice. Two tops at about the same height, around 75; between them there’s a dip, and both are resting on a shared neckline around 51–52.
If the pattern starts playing out, then 38–40–45 is the move, easy.
A couple of words for those who haven’t traded patterns. A double top is considered a reversal pattern: price twice tried to break through the same ceiling, both times it failed, and the buyer ran out of steam. Usually the signal isn’t the shape itself, but the break of the neckline—i.e., the level below the minimum between the tops.
And this is the most important part: as long as this line holds, there is no pattern formally. It’s just a nice picture on the chart. Half of these formations fade away on their own because price returns upward and breaks everything.
Price is exactly at this boundary right now. The distance between the tops and the neckline is about 23 points, which is why the targets go to around 38–40.
What I’m watching:
Break: a close below 51 with volume—then the pattern is triggered.
Invalidation: a return above 56–57, and the pattern loses its meaning.
Pause: price keeps hanging around the neckline, which can last quite a long time.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
Price 52.14, minus 0.82%.
I’m looking at the daily chart and I see a structure that’s hard not to notice. Two tops at about the same height, around 75; between them there’s a dip, and both are resting on a shared neckline around 51–52.
If the pattern starts playing out, then 38–40–45 is the move, easy.
A couple of words for those who haven’t traded patterns. A double top is considered a reversal pattern: price twice tried to break through the same ceiling, both times it failed, and the buyer ran out of steam. Usually the signal isn’t the shape itself, but the break of the neckline—i.e., the level below the minimum between the tops.
And this is the most important part: as long as this line holds, there is no pattern formally. It’s just a nice picture on the chart. Half of these formations fade away on their own because price returns upward and breaks everything.
Price is exactly at this boundary right now. The distance between the tops and the neckline is about 23 points, which is why the targets go to around 38–40.
What I’m watching:
Break: a close below 51 with volume—then the pattern is triggered.
Invalidation: a return above 56–57, and the pattern loses its meaning.
Pause: price keeps hanging around the neckline, which can last quite a long time.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
#HYPE 🔥
Price 52,296, minus 0.46%.
The price continues to hold along the trendline. The key level by the end of the month is 45,000—it works like a magnet.
📉 If the trendline breaks and the price consolidates below it, I expect a drop toward the 40,000–45,000 zones.
📈 In the medium- and long-term outlook, the trend remains bullish. This is clearly visible on the weekly chart: despite the current pullback, the price is still within the upward structure that has been building for months.
What the lower timeframes show: on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts there is a clear decline along the moving averages; pullbacks are short and weak. The indicator marks buy points, but so far each of them has been premature.
This reminds me of a simple thing: the higher timeframe trend and the current move can be pointing in different directions for quite a long time. Anyone trying to catch a reversal on the weekly chart while trading on the 1-hour timeframe usually pays for it multiple times in a row.
⚠️ Don’t forget about stop-losses and risk management. In such phases, the position size matters more than the precision of the entry.
What to watch:
Holding the trendline around 52,000.
A reaction in the 45,000 zone—this is the main magnet.
A return above 56,000 will invalidate the current decline.
Watch the structure, not the signal 🙏
Price 52,296, minus 0.46%.
The price continues to hold along the trendline. The key level by the end of the month is 45,000—it works like a magnet.
📉 If the trendline breaks and the price consolidates below it, I expect a drop toward the 40,000–45,000 zones.
📈 In the medium- and long-term outlook, the trend remains bullish. This is clearly visible on the weekly chart: despite the current pullback, the price is still within the upward structure that has been building for months.
What the lower timeframes show: on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts there is a clear decline along the moving averages; pullbacks are short and weak. The indicator marks buy points, but so far each of them has been premature.
This reminds me of a simple thing: the higher timeframe trend and the current move can be pointing in different directions for quite a long time. Anyone trying to catch a reversal on the weekly chart while trading on the 1-hour timeframe usually pays for it multiple times in a row.
⚠️ Don’t forget about stop-losses and risk management. In such phases, the position size matters more than the precision of the entry.
What to watch:
Holding the trendline around 52,000.
A reaction in the 45,000 zone—this is the main magnet.
A return above 56,000 will invalidate the current decline.
Watch the structure, not the signal 🙏
#ETH
Price 1 867.85, up 0.34%.
🔹 Key support level — 1 800 through the end of the month.
If price holds it, there’s a chance of further upside toward 1 972-2 040. That same area on the chart has a red layer at 1.68M around 1 960, meaning an approach to this level will definitely trigger a reaction.
⚠️ Losing and consolidating below 1 800 may open the way for further correction. The nearest support below is around 1 700, where there’s a green zone at 933.03K.
We’re watching how price reacts at the level 👀
What seems important to me here. The distance between 1 800 and 1 972 is small, but on both sides of the current price there are substantial clusters. Price is squeezed, and as long as it’s hanging in the middle, there’s no clarity. Clarity will come exactly when one of the boundaries is broken with volume.
Until then, any movement inside the channel is noise—on which most often people lose money when trying to guess in advance.
What I’m monitoring:
Holding 1 800 and volume showing on the buy-side.
Break above 1 900, then the 1 960-1 972 zone.
Break down—then the target is 1 700.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
Price 1 867.85, up 0.34%.
🔹 Key support level — 1 800 through the end of the month.
If price holds it, there’s a chance of further upside toward 1 972-2 040. That same area on the chart has a red layer at 1.68M around 1 960, meaning an approach to this level will definitely trigger a reaction.
⚠️ Losing and consolidating below 1 800 may open the way for further correction. The nearest support below is around 1 700, where there’s a green zone at 933.03K.
We’re watching how price reacts at the level 👀
What seems important to me here. The distance between 1 800 and 1 972 is small, but on both sides of the current price there are substantial clusters. Price is squeezed, and as long as it’s hanging in the middle, there’s no clarity. Clarity will come exactly when one of the boundaries is broken with volume.
Until then, any movement inside the channel is noise—on which most often people lose money when trying to guess in advance.
What I’m monitoring:
Holding 1 800 and volume showing on the buy-side.
Break above 1 900, then the 1 960-1 972 zone.
Break down—then the target is 1 700.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
#BTC 📊
Price 63,012, plus 0.25%.
The 62,500 level is currently a key support zone through the end of the month.
If the price holds above it and continues building up, there will be a chance of a move toward 65,000–67,000 🚀 Dense red layers are also marked on the chart: 79.83K around 65,500 and 89.27K in the 67,000 area.
But if there is a firm breakdown and the price consolidates below 62,500, the priority will be for further downside. The nearest targets:
🔻 59,595
🔻 58,165
Down below, by the way, there’s also been a decent buildup: the green zone at 60,000–60,500 holds 74.66K. So if price reaches there, a reaction should be expected.
We’re watching the reaction at the key level 👀
From myself: the month is closing, and the last days often bring false moves. Big players like to close the period at levels that are convenient for them. So any sharp candles in the next 24 hours should be viewed with the calendar in mind.
What I’m watching:
Holding 62,500 and the appearance of volume on buybacks.
Breakdown to the downside, then 59,595 and 58,165.
Move through 65,000—there’s the first dense layer above.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
Price 63,012, plus 0.25%.
The 62,500 level is currently a key support zone through the end of the month.
If the price holds above it and continues building up, there will be a chance of a move toward 65,000–67,000 🚀 Dense red layers are also marked on the chart: 79.83K around 65,500 and 89.27K in the 67,000 area.
But if there is a firm breakdown and the price consolidates below 62,500, the priority will be for further downside. The nearest targets:
🔻 59,595
🔻 58,165
Down below, by the way, there’s also been a decent buildup: the green zone at 60,000–60,500 holds 74.66K. So if price reaches there, a reaction should be expected.
We’re watching the reaction at the key level 👀
From myself: the month is closing, and the last days often bring false moves. Big players like to close the period at levels that are convenient for them. So any sharp candles in the next 24 hours should be viewed with the calendar in mind.
What I’m watching:
Holding 62,500 and the appearance of volume on buybacks.
Breakdown to the downside, then 59,595 and 58,165.
Move through 65,000—there’s the first dense layer above.
Watching the structure, not a signal 🙏
$GIGGLE · 1m
Price 42.67, +0.40%. Candle range 42.51-42.89.
Today the asset shows active growth; in its history there were aggressive bullish candles. Right now the price is moving along a slanted line with large buyers present, and the lows are being lifted.
Above there is a cluster of levels: 42.79, 42.98, 43.44. Beyond them, a liquidity pool is expected—meaning the stops of those who were selling from these marks.
The logic is simple: accumulation under the levels, then an impulsive breakout on active buying and the capture of that liquidity.
Targets above: 43.74, 44.11, 44.37.
But I’ll be honest: I always read the one-minute timeframe with an adjustment. At this pace the picture changes in just a few candles, and what now looks like a neat squeeze could turn out to be a top in ten minutes. Plus volume is 5.75K versus the average 430K—so the inflow right now is weak.
One more thing: over the past day, the coin has moved from 24 to 43. We covered it this morning, and since then the rally has continued. The longer this run lasts, the sharper the pullback is usually.
Breakout: a move through 43.44 with increasing volume.
Invalidation (breakdown): a return below the slanted line around 41.5.
Pause: the squeeze continues without volume.
Watch the structure, not a signal. On the 1-minute chart it’s especially easy to catch emotions instead of movement 🙏
Price 42.67, +0.40%. Candle range 42.51-42.89.
Today the asset shows active growth; in its history there were aggressive bullish candles. Right now the price is moving along a slanted line with large buyers present, and the lows are being lifted.
Above there is a cluster of levels: 42.79, 42.98, 43.44. Beyond them, a liquidity pool is expected—meaning the stops of those who were selling from these marks.
The logic is simple: accumulation under the levels, then an impulsive breakout on active buying and the capture of that liquidity.
Targets above: 43.74, 44.11, 44.37.
But I’ll be honest: I always read the one-minute timeframe with an adjustment. At this pace the picture changes in just a few candles, and what now looks like a neat squeeze could turn out to be a top in ten minutes. Plus volume is 5.75K versus the average 430K—so the inflow right now is weak.
One more thing: over the past day, the coin has moved from 24 to 43. We covered it this morning, and since then the rally has continued. The longer this run lasts, the sharper the pullback is usually.
Breakout: a move through 43.44 with increasing volume.
Invalidation (breakdown): a return below the slanted line around 41.5.
Pause: the squeeze continues without volume.
Watch the structure, not a signal. On the 1-minute chart it’s especially easy to catch emotions instead of movement 🙏
STURMANDOB
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Bullish$GIGGLE · 15m
Price 42.62, +1.69%. Candle range 41.93-43.29.
A vertical candle on the chart 😅 In a single day, the coin went from 24 to 43.5—the last surge from 37 to 43 took a couple of hours.
I understand what it feels like—you want to chase it. The candle looks like a missed opportunity; your finger reaches for the button on its own. But let’s look at the liquidation map.
The whole growth story is laid out like a staircase: bands are packed tightly from 24 to 32, then they thin out; above 36 they appear as separate lines. Under the price there’s a huge mass of positions; above it there’s almost nothing.
The thickest layers are around 28 and 30-31.
What worries me: a rise of more than 75% in a day on a low-liquidity coin usually ends with a quick unloading.
Levels higher up: 44.00, 46.00, 48.84. Support below: 39.61.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding above 41.70 and breaking 43.29 on volume. Break/invalid: dropping below 39.61. Pause: consolidation 41-43.
Watch the structure, not a signal! Position size matters more than the entry point 🙏
Price 42.62, +1.69%. Candle range 41.93-43.29.
A vertical candle on the chart 😅 In a single day, the coin went from 24 to 43.5—the last surge from 37 to 43 took a couple of hours.
I understand what it feels like—you want to chase it. The candle looks like a missed opportunity; your finger reaches for the button on its own. But let’s look at the liquidation map.
The whole growth story is laid out like a staircase: bands are packed tightly from 24 to 32, then they thin out; above 36 they appear as separate lines. Under the price there’s a huge mass of positions; above it there’s almost nothing.
The thickest layers are around 28 and 30-31.
What worries me: a rise of more than 75% in a day on a low-liquidity coin usually ends with a quick unloading.
Levels higher up: 44.00, 46.00, 48.84. Support below: 39.61.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding above 41.70 and breaking 43.29 on volume. Break/invalid: dropping below 39.61. Pause: consolidation 41-43.
Watch the structure, not a signal! Position size matters more than the entry point 🙏
$HYPE
Price 55 105, minus 1.31%.
At the moment, there is accumulation in the 53–54 zone. For several days now, the price has been hovering around these levels without making new lows or breaking through the top.
After the accumulation phase is over, a rebound toward the 60–65 levels is possible 👀 That’s also where the previous consolidation zone is located, marked by the red rectangle, and it makes sense to expect a reaction there.
⚠️ But if the price can’t establish itself above this zone, there’s a risk of further decline with a target of 40–45.
To be honest about this chart layout: there are many arrows, and they draw beautiful scenarios in both directions. I’m calm about such setups. The pattern itself doesn’t predict anything—it only shows where the market might react. Everything else will be decided by volume and who is more active at the key zones.
So I’m more interested in how the price behaves at 54 and 60, rather than where the arrow is drawn.
Accumulation holds: the price doesn’t go below 53, and volume is increasing.
Rebound: a move through 56–57 and then consolidation; next, the 60–65 zone.
Break: a drop below 53 with volume—then the path opens to 48 and lower.
Watch the structure, not a signal. If you’re in a position, focus on how price reacts at the levels—not on the drawn arrows 🙏
Price 55 105, minus 1.31%.
At the moment, there is accumulation in the 53–54 zone. For several days now, the price has been hovering around these levels without making new lows or breaking through the top.
After the accumulation phase is over, a rebound toward the 60–65 levels is possible 👀 That’s also where the previous consolidation zone is located, marked by the red rectangle, and it makes sense to expect a reaction there.
⚠️ But if the price can’t establish itself above this zone, there’s a risk of further decline with a target of 40–45.
To be honest about this chart layout: there are many arrows, and they draw beautiful scenarios in both directions. I’m calm about such setups. The pattern itself doesn’t predict anything—it only shows where the market might react. Everything else will be decided by volume and who is more active at the key zones.
So I’m more interested in how the price behaves at 54 and 60, rather than where the arrow is drawn.
Accumulation holds: the price doesn’t go below 53, and volume is increasing.
Rebound: a move through 56–57 and then consolidation; next, the 60–65 zone.
Break: a drop below 53 with volume—then the path opens to 48 and lower.
Watch the structure, not a signal. If you’re in a position, focus on how price reacts at the levels—not on the drawn arrows 🙏
$BTC — a liquidation shelf has appeared at the bottom 👀
Price 63,650, down 1.70%.
I’m looking at the map of zones and I see an interesting rearrangement. A noticeable shelf has formed below: green clusters at 62,300 (45.03K) and especially a thick layer around 60,200–60,700 (74.66K).
There’s also something to feed on from above: 65,500 (79.83K), 67,100 (89.27K), 67,600 (48.76K), and even higher at 76,500 and 78,000.
That gives a kind of symmetry that I don’t like. Dense clusters on both sides, the price exactly in the middle, and no clue about which direction will move first.
In the next few days, helicopters 🚁 are quite possible. That’s how the market usually behaves in this kind of setup: first it moves to one side, collects stops, then sharply reverses and goes the other way. Those who enter on the first move are usually the ones who get taken out.
What I’m keeping in mind: the bottom shelf has just appeared, which means there are fresh positions there. The market visits fresh liquidity more readily than old liquidity.
What I’m watching:
Down: a break of 62,300, then the 60,200–60,700 zone, the thickest.
Up: a pass through 65,500, that’s the first dense layer from above.
Pause: choppy range 62,500–65,000, the most boring but common scenario.
Observing structure, not a signal. On days like this, especially watch your leverage 🙏
Price 63,650, down 1.70%.
I’m looking at the map of zones and I see an interesting rearrangement. A noticeable shelf has formed below: green clusters at 62,300 (45.03K) and especially a thick layer around 60,200–60,700 (74.66K).
There’s also something to feed on from above: 65,500 (79.83K), 67,100 (89.27K), 67,600 (48.76K), and even higher at 76,500 and 78,000.
That gives a kind of symmetry that I don’t like. Dense clusters on both sides, the price exactly in the middle, and no clue about which direction will move first.
In the next few days, helicopters 🚁 are quite possible. That’s how the market usually behaves in this kind of setup: first it moves to one side, collects stops, then sharply reverses and goes the other way. Those who enter on the first move are usually the ones who get taken out.
What I’m keeping in mind: the bottom shelf has just appeared, which means there are fresh positions there. The market visits fresh liquidity more readily than old liquidity.
What I’m watching:
Down: a break of 62,300, then the 60,200–60,700 zone, the thickest.
Up: a pass through 65,500, that’s the first dense layer from above.
Pause: choppy range 62,500–65,000, the most boring but common scenario.
Observing structure, not a signal. On days like this, especially watch your leverage 🙏
$GIGGLE · 15m
Price 42.62, +1.69%. Candle range 41.93-43.29.
A vertical candle on the chart 😅 In a single day, the coin went from 24 to 43.5—the last surge from 37 to 43 took a couple of hours.
I understand what it feels like—you want to chase it. The candle looks like a missed opportunity; your finger reaches for the button on its own. But let’s look at the liquidation map.
The whole growth story is laid out like a staircase: bands are packed tightly from 24 to 32, then they thin out; above 36 they appear as separate lines. Under the price there’s a huge mass of positions; above it there’s almost nothing.
The thickest layers are around 28 and 30-31.
What worries me: a rise of more than 75% in a day on a low-liquidity coin usually ends with a quick unloading.
Levels higher up: 44.00, 46.00, 48.84. Support below: 39.61.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding above 41.70 and breaking 43.29 on volume. Break/invalid: dropping below 39.61. Pause: consolidation 41-43.
Watch the structure, not a signal! Position size matters more than the entry point 🙏
Price 42.62, +1.69%. Candle range 41.93-43.29.
A vertical candle on the chart 😅 In a single day, the coin went from 24 to 43.5—the last surge from 37 to 43 took a couple of hours.
I understand what it feels like—you want to chase it. The candle looks like a missed opportunity; your finger reaches for the button on its own. But let’s look at the liquidation map.
The whole growth story is laid out like a staircase: bands are packed tightly from 24 to 32, then they thin out; above 36 they appear as separate lines. Under the price there’s a huge mass of positions; above it there’s almost nothing.
The thickest layers are around 28 and 30-31.
What worries me: a rise of more than 75% in a day on a low-liquidity coin usually ends with a quick unloading.
Levels higher up: 44.00, 46.00, 48.84. Support below: 39.61.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: holding above 41.70 and breaking 43.29 on volume. Break/invalid: dropping below 39.61. Pause: consolidation 41-43.
Watch the structure, not a signal! Position size matters more than the entry point 🙏
$BULLA — 15m
Price 0.020824, -1.86%. Candle range 0.020587-0.021243. MA(7) at 0.021013, price is slightly below.
Overnight the coin woke up 🚀 From 0.0155 it moved to 0.0212 in just a few hours, almost without pauses. Right now it’s the first real breather after this run.
The liquidation map here reads almost like a timeline of events. The entire lower section down to 0.017 is practically empty: the price passed through it quickly, and no one had time to build positions there. And above 0.018 a dense staircase of bands begins, and the closer it is to the current price, the thicker it gets.
The brightest areas: 0.0190-0.0192 and the zone just below the price around 0.0205-0.0208. These are positions that accumulated already during the acceleration.
What worries me: this whole layer is sitting under the price. If a pullback starts, the move will go through the saturated zone, and there forced closes have a habit of pushing the price further down.
On top, liquidity is noticeably less—individual bands up to 0.0238.
Levels to watch above: 0.02147, 0.02180, 0.02220.
Support below: 0.01939.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: a return above 0.02101 and holding it.
Break: a move below 0.0201, and then a dense layer begins.
Pause: consolidation 0.0205-0.0212, which is happening now.
Watching the structure—no signal!
Price 0.020824, -1.86%. Candle range 0.020587-0.021243. MA(7) at 0.021013, price is slightly below.
Overnight the coin woke up 🚀 From 0.0155 it moved to 0.0212 in just a few hours, almost without pauses. Right now it’s the first real breather after this run.
The liquidation map here reads almost like a timeline of events. The entire lower section down to 0.017 is practically empty: the price passed through it quickly, and no one had time to build positions there. And above 0.018 a dense staircase of bands begins, and the closer it is to the current price, the thicker it gets.
The brightest areas: 0.0190-0.0192 and the zone just below the price around 0.0205-0.0208. These are positions that accumulated already during the acceleration.
What worries me: this whole layer is sitting under the price. If a pullback starts, the move will go through the saturated zone, and there forced closes have a habit of pushing the price further down.
On top, liquidity is noticeably less—individual bands up to 0.0238.
Levels to watch above: 0.02147, 0.02180, 0.02220.
Support below: 0.01939.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: a return above 0.02101 and holding it.
Break: a move below 0.0201, and then a dense layer begins.
Pause: consolidation 0.0205-0.0212, which is happening now.
Watching the structure—no signal!
#BTC — the breakdown of the descending channel turned out to be false
Price 63,894, -1.32% for the period.
After the breakout from the channel, the price failed to hold the rise, and a pullback down began. A classic story: the breakout happened, but there was no consolidation.
I look at the chart and see that the price has returned inside the descending boundaries. The red lines are working again as a ceiling, and the last candle has eaten up the entire morning uptick.
⚠️ If BTC consolidates below the 63,500–63,700 zone, I expect the decline to continue to the next target: 61,975.
For now, the 63.5K–63.7K zone remains the key support. Holding the level will give a chance for a rebound; losing it will increase selling pressure.
What’s important to me here: false breakouts rarely happen by accident. Usually they collect the people who entered on the breakout from the channel, and—thanks to their stop-losses—the reversal move is formed. That’s why in such cases the price moves down faster than it moved up.
But it’s too early to label it. If 63.5K holds for a couple of attempts, this whole story will turn into ordinary noise within the range.
What I’m watching:
Break: consolidation below 63,500; the next target is 61,975.
Rebound: a return above 65,200 and holding it.
Pause: chopping between 63.5K–65K without volume.
Watch the structure, not a signal!
Price 63,894, -1.32% for the period.
After the breakout from the channel, the price failed to hold the rise, and a pullback down began. A classic story: the breakout happened, but there was no consolidation.
I look at the chart and see that the price has returned inside the descending boundaries. The red lines are working again as a ceiling, and the last candle has eaten up the entire morning uptick.
⚠️ If BTC consolidates below the 63,500–63,700 zone, I expect the decline to continue to the next target: 61,975.
For now, the 63.5K–63.7K zone remains the key support. Holding the level will give a chance for a rebound; losing it will increase selling pressure.
What’s important to me here: false breakouts rarely happen by accident. Usually they collect the people who entered on the breakout from the channel, and—thanks to their stop-losses—the reversal move is formed. That’s why in such cases the price moves down faster than it moved up.
But it’s too early to label it. If 63.5K holds for a couple of attempts, this whole story will turn into ordinary noise within the range.
What I’m watching:
Break: consolidation below 63,500; the next target is 61,975.
Rebound: a return above 65,200 and holding it.
Pause: chopping between 63.5K–65K without volume.
Watch the structure, not a signal!
$UAI · 5m
Price 0.4757, +1.11%. Candle range 0.4692–0.4771.
The coin is in a compression phase toward several resistance levels. The trend is bullish: lows are not being updated, and the price is pulling up toward the highs along the upward slope from 0.40.
I’ll point out the top part of the chart. There isn’t just one level there—it’s a cascade: 0.4776, 0.4800, 0.4826, 0.4846, 0.4920, 0.4937. The red markers show six points where the seller stepped in.
The cascade is more interesting than a single line. Each layer has its own stops, and if the price starts piercing them, the move can pick itself up. But until the cascade is broken through, the price may grind against it for a long time.
Levels above the cascade: 0.4996, 0.5037, 0.5078.
Volume is a bit concerning: 507K vs an average of 320K sounds fine, but it’s just a one-off candle. There’s no steady inflow.
Why I’m watching:
Breakout: a move through 0.4846 with increased volume.
Breakdown: a return below the upward slope around 0.462.
Pause: the compression continues.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 0.4757, +1.11%. Candle range 0.4692–0.4771.
The coin is in a compression phase toward several resistance levels. The trend is bullish: lows are not being updated, and the price is pulling up toward the highs along the upward slope from 0.40.
I’ll point out the top part of the chart. There isn’t just one level there—it’s a cascade: 0.4776, 0.4800, 0.4826, 0.4846, 0.4920, 0.4937. The red markers show six points where the seller stepped in.
The cascade is more interesting than a single line. Each layer has its own stops, and if the price starts piercing them, the move can pick itself up. But until the cascade is broken through, the price may grind against it for a long time.
Levels above the cascade: 0.4996, 0.5037, 0.5078.
Volume is a bit concerning: 507K vs an average of 320K sounds fine, but it’s just a one-off candle. There’s no steady inflow.
Why I’m watching:
Breakout: a move through 0.4846 with increased volume.
Breakdown: a return below the upward slope around 0.462.
Pause: the compression continues.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
$TURTLE · 15m
Price is around 0.0410. The candle range is 0.0374-0.0377.
In the morning, the price broke out of the local range and reached 0.0425, then pulled back. Right now it’s holding around 0.041—slightly above the breakout level.
What’s changed on the liquidation map over the last few hours: clusters have noticeably thickened on both sides.
A bright yellow band has appeared on top around 0.0431-0.0433—this is currently the densest area. Above it, there are thinner layers up to 0.046.
Below, the picture is denser: a bright cluster at 0.0387-0.0390, and bands all the way up to 0.0400. These are the positions that accumulated during the morning surge.
Here’s what this tells me: price is squeezed between two dense layers, and the nearest one above is just a couple of percent away. That’s exactly where the morning impulse bumped into.
Targets above: 0.0418, 0.0423, 0.0429.
Support below: 0.0394.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: a return above 0.0418 and a move through the 0.0431 area with volume.
Break: a drop below 0.0400—this is where the dense liquidation layer begins.
Pause: choppy trading in the 0.040-0.042 range, what’s happening right now.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price is around 0.0410. The candle range is 0.0374-0.0377.
In the morning, the price broke out of the local range and reached 0.0425, then pulled back. Right now it’s holding around 0.041—slightly above the breakout level.
What’s changed on the liquidation map over the last few hours: clusters have noticeably thickened on both sides.
A bright yellow band has appeared on top around 0.0431-0.0433—this is currently the densest area. Above it, there are thinner layers up to 0.046.
Below, the picture is denser: a bright cluster at 0.0387-0.0390, and bands all the way up to 0.0400. These are the positions that accumulated during the morning surge.
Here’s what this tells me: price is squeezed between two dense layers, and the nearest one above is just a couple of percent away. That’s exactly where the morning impulse bumped into.
Targets above: 0.0418, 0.0423, 0.0429.
Support below: 0.0394.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: a return above 0.0418 and a move through the 0.0431 area with volume.
Break: a drop below 0.0400—this is where the dense liquidation layer begins.
Pause: choppy trading in the 0.040-0.042 range, what’s happening right now.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
#BTC · daily
Price 63,987, +0.05%.
The price has been sitting in a sideways range for several days already; the amplitude is compressing. And here’s what I think is important: more and more liquidations are accumulating at the top.
I look at the chart markings and see how red zones stack up in layers above the price. The nearest one is around 65,200–66,000; next is 67,240 and 76,540. Below, the picture is noticeably more modest: a green zone around 61,000–61,600, and that’s where the dense cluster ends.
Such an imbalance usually means that the magnet at the top is stronger. The market tends to move where there’s more fuel.
My base scenario for next month: remove liquidity at the top, and then a renewed move downward. The logic is simple: first, shorts’ stops get gathered, and then price comes back.
What to keep in mind: this is a hypothesis, not a schedule. The range can last longer than you’d like, and the breakout can go in either direction regardless of where the clustering is greater.
What I’m watching:
Breakout upward: a move through 65,200 with volume, and a reaction in the 66,000–67,200 zone.
Breakout downward: a break of 61,900; then the nearest support is around 60,500.
Pause: the sideways range continues, and the amplitude keeps narrowing.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 63,987, +0.05%.
The price has been sitting in a sideways range for several days already; the amplitude is compressing. And here’s what I think is important: more and more liquidations are accumulating at the top.
I look at the chart markings and see how red zones stack up in layers above the price. The nearest one is around 65,200–66,000; next is 67,240 and 76,540. Below, the picture is noticeably more modest: a green zone around 61,000–61,600, and that’s where the dense cluster ends.
Such an imbalance usually means that the magnet at the top is stronger. The market tends to move where there’s more fuel.
My base scenario for next month: remove liquidity at the top, and then a renewed move downward. The logic is simple: first, shorts’ stops get gathered, and then price comes back.
What to keep in mind: this is a hypothesis, not a schedule. The range can last longer than you’d like, and the breakout can go in either direction regardless of where the clustering is greater.
What I’m watching:
Breakout upward: a move through 65,200 with volume, and a reaction in the 66,000–67,200 zone.
Breakout downward: a break of 61,900; then the nearest support is around 60,500.
Pause: the sideways range continues, and the amplitude keeps narrowing.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
$MUBARAK · 15m
Price 0.01117, +0.09%. Candle range 0.01115-0.01119.
The price is holding above local resistance after a series of higher lows. Over the past day, the coin went from 0.0116 down to 0.0106 and then returned, with each new bottom forming higher than the previous one.
The liquidation map here is quite indicative. Dense bright bands are on both sides:
On top, the zones are 0.0115 and 0.0117-0.0118, where the most noticeable accumulations are.
Below, clusters at 0.0105 and 0.0104, also bright.
The current price is right between them, in a relatively empty corridor. This suggests that a move in either direction could happen quickly until it hits the nearest layer.
What’s concerning: the last push up to 0.0119 was quickly pulled back, and the price returned to 0.0112. It looks like the seller is active at this level.
Targets above: 0.01140, 0.01170, 0.01200.
Support below: 0.01090.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: maintaining above 0.01110 and breaking 0.01120 on volume.
Breakdown: a return below 0.01090—then the sequence of higher lows is broken.
Pause: chopping between 0.0110-0.0112.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 0.01117, +0.09%. Candle range 0.01115-0.01119.
The price is holding above local resistance after a series of higher lows. Over the past day, the coin went from 0.0116 down to 0.0106 and then returned, with each new bottom forming higher than the previous one.
The liquidation map here is quite indicative. Dense bright bands are on both sides:
On top, the zones are 0.0115 and 0.0117-0.0118, where the most noticeable accumulations are.
Below, clusters at 0.0105 and 0.0104, also bright.
The current price is right between them, in a relatively empty corridor. This suggests that a move in either direction could happen quickly until it hits the nearest layer.
What’s concerning: the last push up to 0.0119 was quickly pulled back, and the price returned to 0.0112. It looks like the seller is active at this level.
Targets above: 0.01140, 0.01170, 0.01200.
Support below: 0.01090.
What I’m watching:
Continuation: maintaining above 0.01110 and breaking 0.01120 on volume.
Breakdown: a return below 0.01090—then the sequence of higher lows is broken.
Pause: chopping between 0.0110-0.0112.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
$CLO · 15m
Price 0.12613, +3.08% per day. Maximum 0.13939, minimum 0.11812.
After an impulsive surge, the price is holding above the breakout level and forming a continuation of the uptrend structure. MA(7) is at 0.12321, and the price is above it.
From the chart, the picture looks like this: yesterday evening there was a sharp spike up to 0.139, then a pullback to 0.118 and a gradual buyback back up. Right now the price has returned to the upper part of the range.
The liquidation map suggests where positions are concentrated. Dense bands above the price: the 0.133–0.135 area and a few bright lines around 0.145–0.147. Below, clusters are around 0.119–0.120, where the pullback bottom also formed.
One thing worries me: the funding rate is 0.005%, which is noticeably above neutral. That means there are more longs than shorts right now, and they’re paying to hold the position. This kind of imbalance sometimes precedes a sharp shake in the opposite direction.
Levels to watch on the upside, where there was a prior reaction: 0.129, 0.131, 0.1323.
Support on the downside: 0.1199.
What I’m monitoring:
Continuation: holding above 0.1232 and breaking through 0.1265 with volume.
Breakdown: a return below 0.1199, then the breakout structure is effectively nullified.
Pause: chopping between 0.123 and 0.127.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 0.12613, +3.08% per day. Maximum 0.13939, minimum 0.11812.
After an impulsive surge, the price is holding above the breakout level and forming a continuation of the uptrend structure. MA(7) is at 0.12321, and the price is above it.
From the chart, the picture looks like this: yesterday evening there was a sharp spike up to 0.139, then a pullback to 0.118 and a gradual buyback back up. Right now the price has returned to the upper part of the range.
The liquidation map suggests where positions are concentrated. Dense bands above the price: the 0.133–0.135 area and a few bright lines around 0.145–0.147. Below, clusters are around 0.119–0.120, where the pullback bottom also formed.
One thing worries me: the funding rate is 0.005%, which is noticeably above neutral. That means there are more longs than shorts right now, and they’re paying to hold the position. This kind of imbalance sometimes precedes a sharp shake in the opposite direction.
Levels to watch on the upside, where there was a prior reaction: 0.129, 0.131, 0.1323.
Support on the downside: 0.1199.
What I’m monitoring:
Continuation: holding above 0.1232 and breaking through 0.1265 with volume.
Breakdown: a return below 0.1199, then the breakout structure is effectively nullified.
Pause: chopping between 0.123 and 0.127.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
$ON · 5m
Price 0.31643, +0.93%. Candle range 0.31269–0.31706.
The asset shows a local uptrend: lows are rising along the ascending line visible from 12:00. The rebound from 0.226 was confident, and the pullbacks along the way were short.
But resistance levels stand in the way of further growth—these have already been tested. The red markers show where the seller got involved: the 0.31706–0.32148 zone worked at least four times.
What’s important to understand: participants opened positions at these levels and placed stop-losses beyond them. The more attempts, the denser the layer of orders above the current price. Therefore, a breakout usually turns out sharp: accumulated stops get triggered and additional fuel is added to the move.
I expect a squeeze below the level with rising volume before an attempt to break through.
Key levels above: 0.33632, 0.34049, 0.34361.
What bothers me is the volume: 561K versus an average of about 1M. Inflow is weak; without it, the breakout attempt risks stalling.
What I’m watching:
Breakout: a move through 0.32148 on increased volume.
Breakdown: a return below the line around 0.305.
Pause: the squeeze continues.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 0.31643, +0.93%. Candle range 0.31269–0.31706.
The asset shows a local uptrend: lows are rising along the ascending line visible from 12:00. The rebound from 0.226 was confident, and the pullbacks along the way were short.
But resistance levels stand in the way of further growth—these have already been tested. The red markers show where the seller got involved: the 0.31706–0.32148 zone worked at least four times.
What’s important to understand: participants opened positions at these levels and placed stop-losses beyond them. The more attempts, the denser the layer of orders above the current price. Therefore, a breakout usually turns out sharp: accumulated stops get triggered and additional fuel is added to the move.
I expect a squeeze below the level with rising volume before an attempt to break through.
Key levels above: 0.33632, 0.34049, 0.34361.
What bothers me is the volume: 561K versus an average of about 1M. Inflow is weak; without it, the breakout attempt risks stalling.
What I’m watching:
Breakout: a move through 0.32148 on increased volume.
Breakdown: a return below the line around 0.305.
Pause: the squeeze continues.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
$SOL · 15m
Price 73.47, -0.31%. Candle range 73.46-73.74.
SOL is holding within a local range and is providing liquidity below the current price.
Base scenario: a drop into the 72.8-73.1 area. This is the buyers’ interest zone, marked as POI. The level has been worked before; there are lows below it, meaning stops have accumulated.
After the lows are swept, I expect a quick reaction and an impulse toward 75.0-75.6.
The upper zone acts as key resistance. In my experience, such levels rarely break through on the first attempt: likely liquidity grab, a false breakout, and a pullback to 74.2-74.4.
What concerns me: the scenario assumes an exact sequence of four steps. The longer the chain of assumptions, the less likely it is that it plays out entirely.
What I’m watching:
Reaction in the 72.8-73.1 zone; whether volume appears on the buyback.
Behavior at 75.0-75.6—impulse or fading.
A close below 72.8 cancels the setup.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
Price 73.47, -0.31%. Candle range 73.46-73.74.
SOL is holding within a local range and is providing liquidity below the current price.
Base scenario: a drop into the 72.8-73.1 area. This is the buyers’ interest zone, marked as POI. The level has been worked before; there are lows below it, meaning stops have accumulated.
After the lows are swept, I expect a quick reaction and an impulse toward 75.0-75.6.
The upper zone acts as key resistance. In my experience, such levels rarely break through on the first attempt: likely liquidity grab, a false breakout, and a pullback to 74.2-74.4.
What concerns me: the scenario assumes an exact sequence of four steps. The longer the chain of assumptions, the less likely it is that it plays out entirely.
What I’m watching:
Reaction in the 72.8-73.1 zone; whether volume appears on the buyback.
Behavior at 75.0-75.6—impulse or fading.
A close below 72.8 cancels the setup.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
$DODOX · 15m
Price 0.018738, -0.87%. Candle range 0.018503-0.018741.
I’m looking at the chart and I see a phase of local recovery after a long decline. Several attempts to rise were stopped by the sellers, but each new pullback is becoming less deep. This tells me that selling pressure is gradually weakening.
Key zone: 0.02000. Price has approached it several times, and liquidity is accumulating above the level there—there are stops from those who sold and resting orders. This cluster can become fuel for a move if it breaks through.
Levels I keep in mind:
0.02006 and 0.02020, the nearest resistance zone.
0.02203, 0.02520, 0.02998 above—where the price reacted earlier.
What worries me: volume is low right now, 2.37M versus spikes of 200M on previous moves. I think that without a volume inflow any approach to 0.020 will be sluggish and end in yet another pullback.
What I’m watching for:
Breakout: closing above 0.02020 with rising volume, not just a single wick.
Breakdown: a return below 0.0175 and an updated minimum—then the recovery is cut short.
Pause: chopping between 0.0175-0.0200, what’s been happening these last few days.
Monitoring the structure, not a signal!
Price 0.018738, -0.87%. Candle range 0.018503-0.018741.
I’m looking at the chart and I see a phase of local recovery after a long decline. Several attempts to rise were stopped by the sellers, but each new pullback is becoming less deep. This tells me that selling pressure is gradually weakening.
Key zone: 0.02000. Price has approached it several times, and liquidity is accumulating above the level there—there are stops from those who sold and resting orders. This cluster can become fuel for a move if it breaks through.
Levels I keep in mind:
0.02006 and 0.02020, the nearest resistance zone.
0.02203, 0.02520, 0.02998 above—where the price reacted earlier.
What worries me: volume is low right now, 2.37M versus spikes of 200M on previous moves. I think that without a volume inflow any approach to 0.020 will be sluggish and end in yet another pullback.
What I’m watching for:
Breakout: closing above 0.02020 with rising volume, not just a single wick.
Breakdown: a return below 0.0175 and an updated minimum—then the recovery is cut short.
Pause: chopping between 0.0175-0.0200, what’s been happening these last few days.
Monitoring the structure, not a signal!
BTC daily
I report on the situation)
Price is 63,796.
No matter how scary it may seem. No matter how much you might want to take liquidity from below.
But I see the actions of large capital: it keeps entering the market again and again, stopping the price from falling. The clusters give me this signal unambiguously.
Take a look yourself: every time the price approaches the lower boundary, volume appears there. Not a one-time spike, but a repeating pattern. In the screenshot, I marked these zones with arrows, and they line up along one level around 62,800.
Meanwhile, the delta remains mixed, with no clear dominance of sellers. That is, I don’t see downward pressure consistent with panic sentiment.
In effect, the trend is upward; the structure is not broken. And the targets to 70K still haven’t been reached.
What I’m keeping in mind: as long as the 62,800 level holds and clusters keep appearing there, the picture remains valid. A move below, with rising seller volume, will cancel this logic—and then we’ll have to reassess.
What I’m watching:
Holding 62,800, clusters continue to appear on the approaches.
A return above 65,000—then the picture strengthens.
A breakdown of 62,800 downward with volume—the structure breaks.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
I report on the situation)
Price is 63,796.
No matter how scary it may seem. No matter how much you might want to take liquidity from below.
But I see the actions of large capital: it keeps entering the market again and again, stopping the price from falling. The clusters give me this signal unambiguously.
Take a look yourself: every time the price approaches the lower boundary, volume appears there. Not a one-time spike, but a repeating pattern. In the screenshot, I marked these zones with arrows, and they line up along one level around 62,800.
Meanwhile, the delta remains mixed, with no clear dominance of sellers. That is, I don’t see downward pressure consistent with panic sentiment.
In effect, the trend is upward; the structure is not broken. And the targets to 70K still haven’t been reached.
What I’m keeping in mind: as long as the 62,800 level holds and clusters keep appearing there, the picture remains valid. A move below, with rising seller volume, will cancel this logic—and then we’ll have to reassess.
What I’m watching:
Holding 62,800, clusters continue to appear on the approaches.
A return above 65,000—then the picture strengthens.
A breakdown of 62,800 downward with volume—the structure breaks.
Watching the structure, not a signal!
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