Today is FOMC. And most people have the memory of a goldfish.
"But liquidity is coming!"
Look at the chart. I’ve marked the last 4 FOMC meetings for you.
June 18: Paused. -6.36% Dump.
July 30: Paused. -5.62% Dump.
Sept 17: Cut 25bps. -8.10% Dump.
Oct 29: Cut 25bps. -12.04% Dump.
Notice the pattern. The market front-runs the easing. By the time Powell speaks, the vertical move up has been completed in the days leading up to the meeting.
Consensus is 95% chances of a cut tomorrow. It is priced into the chart.
History will be on the side of gravity tomorrow. If we repeat the average drop (~8%), Bitcoin is due to revisit the $88k line of defence before any continuation up.
🚨 Today FOMC meeting is the most important one since December 2024 🚨
It could decide whether crypto gets a Santa Rally or a Santa Dump.
The Fed has already cut rates in the last two meetings and will likely cut rates again, but this time markets expect something much bigger.
Major banks are hinting that tomorrow’s meeting may include the first signs of new liquidity tools. Some institutions even expect direct reserve injections to calm the banking system. If Powell confirms any of this, it would be one of the strongest bullish signals for crypto, which reacts the fastest to liquidity shifts.
But the market is split.
Today, October JOLTs job openings data came in higher than expected, showing labor demand is rising again. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and bond yields are spiking.
This is a clear sign the bond market expects a more hawkish Fed.
This means there are 2 major scenarios, and either of them could happen tomorrow.
Bullish Scenario:
Fed cut rates Announces liquidity injection Mentions that the labor market is weak
Bearish Scenario:
Fed cut rates Shows uncertainty about future cuts No mention of bond buying, and also admits that inflation is still hot
But why is this FOMC meeting the most important since December 2024?
This is because the Fed turned very hawkish after the December 2024 rate cut and mentioned that inflation is running hot.
Due to this, alts peaked in December and they went d,own 60%-80% after that.
If Powell says something similar, Santa Pump could become Santa Dump.
And if Powell says the exact opposite of December 2024 meeting, the crypto market will see a relief rally.
Now move with caution: the Monday Low worked perfectly and delivered an excellent move-up
Now the important thing is to see how it closes the daily: that will be the confirmation telling us whether there's still room or if we need to temper our enthusiasm. $BTC
Still bullish to me here, following our old plan and nothing really changed. Currently the most important thing is to hold the 90 - 89k level to remain bullish.
Short term I would like to see us break the 92k resistance to able to push higher to around 95 - 96 area